Alemayehu Seyoum Taffesse; Launch of “the Ethiopian National Dairy Development Strategy 2022–2031” The CGIAR Initiative on National Policy and Strategies (NPS)

1. Contributions to Policy Research in Support of the Reform
and Recovery Process
1
Alemayehu Seyoum Taffesse
IFPRI
Presentation at:
Launch of “the Ethiopian National Dairy Development Strategy 2022–
2031”
Seminar on “Tracking Evidence and Informing Policy to Rebuild Livestock-
Based Livelihoods and Empower Women in Conflict Affected Areas of
Ethiopia”
Tuesday, 19 December 2023, 08:30–13:15 hrs
Azage Auditorium, ILRI Addis Ababa Campus

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Outline
 Context
 Contributions of Policy Research
 Focus: Livestock and Women

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Context
 Period of reform – the Homegrown Economic Reform (HGER) program,
Ten-Year Development Plan (TYDP) (2014-2023 EC), the ne Agricultural
and Rural Development Policy, the Food Systems Transformation
Pathways, …
 Period of shocks – the COVID-19 pandemic, the worst locust invasion in
decades, a major conflict in the Northern regions of the country, a harsh
drought in large areas in the country’s South, East, and North, global
economic crisis due to the war in Ukraine;
 Economic challenges – disrupted flow of goods and services, massive
internal displacements, destruction of assets, millions facing increased
food insecurity, weakening of institutions, economic sanctions, forced
reallocation of resources, macro imbalances;
 Welfare consequences – rapid inflation, slower growth, and rising
poverty.

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Contributions of Policy Research
Why should we worry about shocks?
Shocks negatively affect welfare directly and through reduced growth.
 Four economic effects (Collier (1999))
 Destruction – human, physical, natural resources (mortality or
morbidity, damage or destruction physical and natural assets such as
factories, roads, power stations …)
 Disruption – interruption of normal order of business including
movement of goods/people and provision of services due to breakdown
of infrastructure/insecurity …
 Diversion – reallocation of public and private resources away from
output-enhancing activities.
 Dissaving – reduction or lower rate of accumulation of assets
including running down financial savings, capital flight, postponed
investment, migration
 Psychosocial effects: psychological consequences due to exposure to
shocks (mental and emotional wellbeing, the environment, and behaviour)

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Contributions of Policy Research
-8.0 -8.3 -8.3
-6.6
-4.7
-10.0
-5.0
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
1950
1953
1956
1959
1962
1965
1968
1971
1974
1977
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
1995
1998
2001
2004
2007
2010
2013
2016
2019
%
Year
Shocks and Growth – Illustration from Ethiopian History
Growth of GDP per capita (1951-2021) (%)
Source: Authors’ computation using data from The Conference Board (2021).
Duration and intensity matters
 Core tasks: assess the impact of shocks and explore recovery options

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Contributions of Policy Research
 Findings using counterfactuals (highlights)
 considerable rise in government recurrent expenditure;
 substantial reductions in levels and growth rates of GDP and private
consumption during the conflict period and subsequent years;
 fall in household incomes;
 poorer households face larger reductions;
 rise in poverty and inequality (marginally);
 Knowledge gap and action going forward
 assesses recovery options;
 the psychosocial effects of shocks (in particular conflict) and related
impact on recovery and resilience.
 the root causes of conflict in the country are critical priority areas for
research, policy analysis, and collective action

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Contributions of Policy Research
 Core Policy Questions: How to sequence the multiple domain-specific
interventions/policies/strategies and scale interventions/actions?
Considerations:
 capacity to implement interventions/policies/strategies (public sector,
private sector, development partners)
 identify and assess instruments: public investments, partnerships,
regulations, standards, taxation, procurement, …
 explore the necessary sequencing/prioritization ;
 scalability: are interventions scalable?
‘evidence-based policy’ vs. ‘policy-based evidence’: false positives;
uniqueness of populations and circumstances; unintended
consequences; economies of scale .
 tracking progress and learning - monitoring and evaluation

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Contributions of Policy Research
National Policies and Strategies (NPS) Initiative
 aims to identify ways of building stronger policies and strategies
with greater coherence and capacity, helping countries address
current policy demand and future development needs.
 Key Activities
o Building policy coherence by building cross-CGIAR policy
coherence mechanisms, monitoring CGIAR policy research and
communication activities at country level.
o Integrating policy tools to strengthen the analytical performance
of national institutions and help build capacity for more effective
policy responses.
o Responding to policy demand and crises by building policy
communities of practice at country level around common themes
 Specific theme – livestock and gender (next)

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Thank You