The document discusses trends in society and their implications for industries and the future. It emphasizes connecting disparate trends, looking for intersections between them, and amplifying weak signals to anticipate second and third order consequences of trends. The document also stresses examining trends in historical context, looking where competitors are not, and addressing residual uncertainty when envisioning the future.

1. THE FUTURE IS EMBEDED IN THE PRESENT
John Naisbitt, Futurist
Thursday, May 31, 12

2. DISCONTINUITY
A pattern of trends that has the potential to
dramatically change competitive rules
or industry structures, opening up
substantial new opportunities.
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3. CONNECT THE DOT´S
People are working longer hours
The number of single parent families increasing
People are getting married later in life
People are spending more time online
WHERE IS THE INTERSECTION
BETWEEN THESE TRENDS?
WHAT IS THE BIGGER STORY THAT
EMERGES WHEN YOU PUT THESE TRENDS
TOGETHER?
Thursday, May 31, 12

4. INCREASING SOCIAL ISOLATION
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5. HOW COULD/WILL THIS
AFFECT YOUR INDUSTRY?
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6. IMAGINING THE FUTURE
TODAY
...IS NOT EASY
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7. THINK BIG
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8. LET´s THINK ABOUT THE TRENDS
IN THE AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY
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9. Bill Ford · Global Gridlock
Thursday, May 31, 12

10. Forget about grand corporate visions of the future.
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11. Focus on identifying changes in the external environment
that competitors have under-estimated orignored.
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12. Then try to understand how the momentum of these
changes can be influenced or amplified to shape the future.
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13. EVERYONE HAS ACCESS TO
THE SAME INFORMATION ABOUT
WHAT IS CHANGING THE WORLD.
Thursday, May 31, 12

14. HOW CAN YOU CONSTRUCT
PROPIETARY INSIGHTS OUT OF
PUBLICLY AVAILABLE DATA?
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15. LOOK WHERE YOUR COMPETITORS ARE NOT?
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16. LOOK WHERE YOUR COMPETITORS ARE NOT?
What is the bleeding edge?
Where could we go to get some
firsthand experience of ...
technological change,
lifestyle changes,
socio-demographic changes, etc.?
Where could we go to get inspiring bursts of
insight that trigger innovative new ideas?
Thursday, May 31, 12

17. Jan Chipchase · Understanding Consumers
Thursday, May 31, 12

18. AMPLIFY WEAK SIGNALS TO ANTICIPATE THEIR
SECOND AND THIRD ORDER CONSEQUENCES.
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19. AMPLIFY WEAK SIGNALS TO ANTICIPATE THEIR
SECOND AND THIRD ORDER CONSEQUENCES.
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20. Thursday, May 31, 12

21. Chris Anderson · Technology Forecasting
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22. TRY TO UNDERSTAND TRENDS
IN THEIR HISTORICAL CONTEXT.
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23. TRY TO UNDERSTAND TRENDS
IN THEIR HISTORICAL CONTEXT.
EXAMINE THE PAST
What have been our past blind spots?
Is there an instructive analogy from another industry?
Who in your industry has a good track record in
picking up week signals?
Thursday, May 31, 12

24. TRY TO UNDERSTAND TRENDS
IN THEIR HISTORICAL CONTEXT.
EXAMINE THE PRESENT
What important signals are you rationalizing away?
(detect · fast forward with scenario planning)
What are your mavericks and outliers trying to tell you?
What are peripheral customers and competitors really
thinking? (existing · potential · non-consumers)
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Thursday, May 31, 12

25. TRY TO UNDERSTAND TRENDS
IN THEIR HISTORICAL CONTEXT.
ENVISION THE FUTURE
What future surprises could really hurt (or help) us?
What emerging technologies could change the game?
Is there an unthinkable scenario?
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26. LOOK FOR INTERSECTIONS BETWEEN TRENDS.
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27. Flying Cars
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28. TRY TO UNDERSTAND TRENDS
IN THEIR HISTORICAL CONTEXT.
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29. Thursday, May 31, 12

30. Thursday, May 31, 12

31. RESIDUAL UNCERTAINTY
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32. RESIDUAL UNCERTAINTY
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33. RESIDUAL UNCERTAINTY
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34. RESIDUAL UNCERTAINTY
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35. RESIDUAL UNCERTAINTY
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