1. Keep it positive
Using competitive intelligence to enhance
business development
Eric Garland
Competitive Futures, Inc
@ericgarland
#scip09
2. Why we’re here
I DON’T WANT YOU TO BE FIRED
I WANT YOU TO HAVE MORE BUDGET
I WANT YOU TO SEE THE UPSIDE
OF CHANGE FOR FUN AND PROFIT
3. What we will talk about
• State of competitive
intelligence, scenario planning,
futures
• Executive psychology of
positive & negative information
• Frameworks to combine CI &
business development
• Exercises you can take home
4. WHY IS IT SO EASY TO FIRE/IGNORE INTELLIGENCE?
Perfect, now we can
get back to improving
“shareholder value”
5. The Future Intelligence Method
5 – 15 years
1 – 5 yrs.
Today
Major
demographic
Competitive shifts
product
Stock
launches
performance
Technology
revolutions
Industry
Sales data dynamics
Political
movements
Regulatory
Personnel response
retention Infrastructure
Consumer investment/
preferences collapse
6. What to do with future intelligence
5 – 15 years
1 – 5 yrs.
Today
Hire new people
Plan for loss of talented Aging populations
workforce?
Global climate
Upcoming restrictive change
Launch new environmental
business Disruptive
legislation? technologies
Emergence of “world- Globalization
class” Asian industries?
Form partnership
7. EXECUTIVES:
There is only one fundamental question today:
Is this incremental or is this transformative
adjustment... change?
9. Transformative change and business models
1 - 5 years Wildcards
Business Model Trends Business Model
A B
Today: Making Future: Maybe
money making money
10. Transformative change and business models
1 - 5 years Wildcards
Trends
Today: Making Future: Maybe
money making money
11. MY LAST COUPLE OF YEARS: 2007 - 2008
Anyhow, all I was saying
was doubling the that Case-Shiller
Index is bad for banking, why is
everyone freaking out?
12. TIME TO GET HAPPY
For CI to survive and
thrive it must blend with
psychological reality and focus on
business development, not just
Cold War “enemy tracking”
14. Two fundamental insights:
The brain is designed for fear.
Companies profit from opportunities.
Gain maximization is more attractive than
risk management.
NOTICE: these are at odds.
17. How does the brain handle
long-term threats?
“Our updated simulations continue to illustrate that the long-
term fiscal outlook is unsustainable.
Despite a 3-year decline in the unified budget deficit, the
federal government still faces large and growing structural
deficits driven primarily by rising health care costs and known
demographic trends.
Last month, a baby boomer claimed Social Security retirement
benefits for the first time, and this cohort will be eligible for
Medicare benefits in less than 3 years. According to the Social
Security Administration nearly 80 million Americans will
become eligible for Social Security retirement benefits over the
next two decades--an average of more than 10,000 per day.
Although Social Security is important because of its size, the
real driver of the long-term fiscal outlook is health care
spending. Medicare and Medicaid are both large and projected
to continue growing rapidly in the future.”
Former
Comptroller General
David Walker
20. GOOD NEWS CULTURE
• American, Western Europe
• Best news gets to the boss,
more money invested in
upside
• Negative implications = “not
“Leverage the bank to 40
a team player” times over fractional
reserve? Sounds like a plan
• Best case: Put man on for financial success to me,
moon, entrepreneurial spirit boss!”
• Worst case: Run into brick
walls at 300 mph
21. BAD NEWS CULTURE
• Finland, Korea, anyplace
regularly invaded
• Worst news gets to boss first,
alternate plans made
• Negative implications =
looking out for tribe
• Best case: React quickly to
threats
• Worst case: Alcoholism,
“Hi, do you have any unguarded
pickled herring consumption monasteries around?”
22. ACADEMIC
• Government agencies, France
• News arrives once a year
• Negative implications = To be
discussed to full depth of
Cartesian logic
• Best case: Well considered “We are not amused”
ideas, less susceptible to fad.
Also, liberal vacation time.
• Worst case: Minitel vs. Internet
24. IF YOU CAN’T HEAR THE CASH REGISTER
RING NEAR YOUR DESK, THERE IS NO ROI
GET NEAR THE MONEY:
Support SALES
Give insights to BIZ DEVELOPMENT or
PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT
25. Uh, this isn’t futures studies,
it’s BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT
5 – 15 years
1 – 5 yrs.
Today
Major
demographic
shifts
Technology
revolutions
one billion 10,000
10 100 good
dollar business
launches ideas Political
business ideas movements
Infrastructure
investment/
collapse
26. CONNECTING MARKET ANALYSIS TO $$$
CI Advanced CI
Capital
assets
IP
Current Competitive
Implications Scenarios
Forecasts Trends
Brand
Cash Flow
Connect insight back to business
Current
business 1 - 3 year 3 - 10 year
model forecast Delta
27. TURN HORRIBLE SCENARIOS INTO
BUSINESS IDEAS
“When life hands
you lemons, make
lemonade. Next, find someone
to whom life handed vodka.
Now, you have a party.”
-Ron White
28. The Lemonade Questionnaire
1. Pick a transformative trend
2. Talk about all the people who will be affected,
for good, bad or indifferent
3. Think about what they will need, want,
dislike, etc.
4. Do your current assets match this reality?
5. Which companies are best poised to create
new businesses - if none, will there be start-
ups?
6.Where are your competitors? Do they even
matter?
30. What’s a bubble and what’s a strategic trend
THE BUBBLE: THE REAL TRENDS:
Education Water
shortage Infotech
Housing increases in
power
Retail Talent crisis
Credit
Aging
31. Why we’re taking a trip to the YEAR 1998
Derived from
debt alone
FLAT from
here on
32. MASSIVELY EXTENDED CREDIT.
Just in the United States.
Housing, leveraged
business deals, Iraq
spending, credit
cards, student loans
Great depression,
New Deal
35. U.S. retail glut likely to collapse
30
22.5
20.2
15
7.5
3.3
2.5 2.3
1.1
0
U.S. Sweden U.K. France Italy
Source:
Square footage retail per person Shopping Centers Today
36. Commercial real estate to collapse
(actually, just its value)
Funny growth, given our GDP remaing
flat, wages staying flat, moving
manufacturing base to Asia
39. Healthcare budgets will explode:
U.S. expenditures from $2 trillion to $4 trillion
That stings a
little...
Well, I’m
sucking
$400,000
out of your
blood.
44. Energy still scarce, even with recession
Over capacity = Barely over capacity:
stable speculation, price fluctuation
45. Water scarce around the world
Andalucia
Ogalalla Near East:
Acquifer Jordan, Syria,
Israel – drinking
from the same
aquifer!
China - $11
billion in lost
manufacturing
due to
polluted water!
Egypt
Mexico city
Subsaharan
Africa
N.S.W.
Australia
46. U.S. retail glut likely to collapse
30
22.5
20.2
15
7.5
3.3
2.5 2.3
1.1
0
U.S. Sweden U.K. France Italy
Source:
Square footage retail per person Shopping Centers Today
47. The Lemonade Questionnaire:
RETAIL
1. Assume a scenario in which retail space shrinks by 40%
2. Talk about all the people who will be affected, for good, bad or
indifferent
3. Think about what they will need, want, dislike, etc.
4. Which companies are best poised to create new businesses - if none,
will there be start-ups?
5. Where are your competitors? Do they even matter?
49. Let’s stay in touch and really discuss this
• Forum: competitivefutures.ning.com
Thanks for • Twitter: @ericgarland
coming!
• Blog: www.competitivefutures.com/
blog
• Phone: 202.508.1496
• In person: 1317 F St. NW, Washington
DC, about a block from the guys giving
away nine trillion dollars
