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Commercial Trends in Space
                               The NewSpace Industry




                                                                919-338-0936
© Jeff Krukin                                             jeff@jeffkrukin.com
Space & Defense Consulting                                www.jeffkrukin.com
Defining “NewSpace”

1.   Primarily entrepreneurs, small- and medium-size firms
2.   Products and services sold at fixed price vs. cost-plus
3.   Customers include individual consumers
4.   Funded at startup primarily by owners and investors
5.   Space Act Agreements vs. Federal Acquisition Regulations
Six NewSpace Industry Sectors


1.   Atmospheric Flight
2.   Suborbital Flight (space tourism/personal spaceflight, R&D)
3.   Orbital Transportation
4.   Orbital and Lunar Destinations
5.   Service and Support
6.   Commercial Spaceports
Suborbital Flight




•   Spent $250M through 2010
•   Revenue flights targeted for 2012 – 2013
•   Passengers & technology payloads (science, eng. research)
•   Suborbital Point-To-Point flights a goal (Concorde on steroids)
•   US Base: Spaceport America, NM
Suborbital Flight (Cont.)




•   $50M in wet leases
•   Now: orders for structural long-lead structural airframe elements
•   Fly four times/day, 3 – 4 minutes of microgravity
•   Revenue flights targeted for 2012 - 2013
Is Suborbital Flight A Real Industry?

Suborbital flight market (The Tauri Group, 2008):
   • 450 customers have made app. $50M in deposits
   • $213M revenue from HDW, HDW dev., support services
   • $1.51B invested
   • 14 vehicles in development by numerous companies

XCOR Aerospace Lynx revenue projections by 2014 - $3.3B:
  • Passengers: $800M
  • Payloads (experiments, hardware testing, etc.): $1.1B
  • Small satellite launch: $1.4B
Orbital Transportation
• NASA Commercial Crew & Cargo Program
   • Space Exploration Technologies Corp.
   • Sierra Nevada Corp.
   • Blue Origin
   • Paragon Space Development                   Dragon
   • Orbital Sciences Corp.
   • Boeing
   • United Launch Alliance



    Sierra Nevada
    Dream Chaser                             Falcon 9
Business Opportunities

• Suborbital Reusable Launch Vehicle emerging markets:
   • Tourism and adventure travel
   • Science and high-speed research
   • Microsatellite orbital insertion
   • Microgravity research
   • Hardware qualification
   • Commercial remote sensing
   • Military surveillance and Marine/Special Forces transportation
   • Media, advertising, and sponsorship
   • Space diving (Xtreme Sports, military force insertion)
Business Opportunities – Supply Chain




                        Space Florida Strategic Business Plan, March 2007
Business Opportunities – Supply Chain (Cont.)
                    XCOR Aerospace CEO Jeff Greason*

                                      What we seek

  • Strategic partners to commercialize components such as valves,
    ignition systems, nonflammable composites
  • Investors
  • Broaden the base of states with suitable facilities for commercial
    space activities




*Presented at the NewSpace Commerce Forum, ECSU,11/09
The A & D System is STRESSED!

• Downward pressure on Federal budgets
• Expected 25% jump in commercial aircraft deliveries by 2014
• NASA spaceflight commercial orientation
• Return to Congressional “business as usual” would be an
  improvement!
• Talent loss
• Talent mismatch



 New business in adjacent commercial markets is crucial!

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Commercial Trends in Space The NewSpace Industry

  • 1. Commercial Trends in Space The NewSpace Industry 919-338-0936 © Jeff Krukin jeff@jeffkrukin.com Space & Defense Consulting www.jeffkrukin.com
  • 2. Defining “NewSpace” 1. Primarily entrepreneurs, small- and medium-size firms 2. Products and services sold at fixed price vs. cost-plus 3. Customers include individual consumers 4. Funded at startup primarily by owners and investors 5. Space Act Agreements vs. Federal Acquisition Regulations
  • 3. Six NewSpace Industry Sectors 1. Atmospheric Flight 2. Suborbital Flight (space tourism/personal spaceflight, R&D) 3. Orbital Transportation 4. Orbital and Lunar Destinations 5. Service and Support 6. Commercial Spaceports
  • 4. Suborbital Flight • Spent $250M through 2010 • Revenue flights targeted for 2012 – 2013 • Passengers & technology payloads (science, eng. research) • Suborbital Point-To-Point flights a goal (Concorde on steroids) • US Base: Spaceport America, NM
  • 5. Suborbital Flight (Cont.) • $50M in wet leases • Now: orders for structural long-lead structural airframe elements • Fly four times/day, 3 – 4 minutes of microgravity • Revenue flights targeted for 2012 - 2013
  • 6. Is Suborbital Flight A Real Industry? Suborbital flight market (The Tauri Group, 2008): • 450 customers have made app. $50M in deposits • $213M revenue from HDW, HDW dev., support services • $1.51B invested • 14 vehicles in development by numerous companies XCOR Aerospace Lynx revenue projections by 2014 - $3.3B: • Passengers: $800M • Payloads (experiments, hardware testing, etc.): $1.1B • Small satellite launch: $1.4B
  • 7. Orbital Transportation • NASA Commercial Crew & Cargo Program • Space Exploration Technologies Corp. • Sierra Nevada Corp. • Blue Origin • Paragon Space Development Dragon • Orbital Sciences Corp. • Boeing • United Launch Alliance Sierra Nevada Dream Chaser Falcon 9
  • 8. Business Opportunities • Suborbital Reusable Launch Vehicle emerging markets: • Tourism and adventure travel • Science and high-speed research • Microsatellite orbital insertion • Microgravity research • Hardware qualification • Commercial remote sensing • Military surveillance and Marine/Special Forces transportation • Media, advertising, and sponsorship • Space diving (Xtreme Sports, military force insertion)
  • 9. Business Opportunities – Supply Chain Space Florida Strategic Business Plan, March 2007
  • 10. Business Opportunities – Supply Chain (Cont.) XCOR Aerospace CEO Jeff Greason* What we seek • Strategic partners to commercialize components such as valves, ignition systems, nonflammable composites • Investors • Broaden the base of states with suitable facilities for commercial space activities *Presented at the NewSpace Commerce Forum, ECSU,11/09
  • 11. The A & D System is STRESSED! • Downward pressure on Federal budgets • Expected 25% jump in commercial aircraft deliveries by 2014 • NASA spaceflight commercial orientation • Return to Congressional “business as usual” would be an improvement! • Talent loss • Talent mismatch  New business in adjacent commercial markets is crucial!