Co2 regulation in europe english v4.2

2019/Thomas Puls
A compendium – Version 4.2
CO2 regulation in Europe

2CO2-Regulation in Europe
Megatrends
CO2 emissions
(Slides 5 – 12)
Fuels
(Slides 13 – 17)
Globalisation
(Slides 18 – 22)
Political
framework
Climate policy
(Slides 24 – 31)
Regulation density
and conflicting goals
(Slides 32 – 38)
Transportation
sektor
Transportation
today
(Slides 40 – 47)
CO2-emissions on
the road
(Slides 48 – 54)
Efficiency on the
road
(Slides 55 – 63)
Regulation on the
road
(Slides 64 – 71)
Other sektors
Electricity
(Folie 72 – 78)
Industry
(Slides 79 – 82)
Households
(Slides 83 – 86)
Outlook
Limits of the system
(Slides 88 – 93)
Alternatives
(Slides 94 – 98)
14. Fourteen core
theses
(Slides 99 – 133)
Chapter overview

Climate protection
1. Europe’s share of the worldwide
CO2 emissions is low and
continuously decreasing. (100)
2. No solution without China:
Europe’s reduction of emissions is
being eaten up by growth in
emerging economies. (103)
3. Motor vehicles account for
approximately one-seventh of the
CO2 emissions in the EU. Their
share in transportation emissions is
declining. (106)
CO2 regulation for motor vehicles
4. New vehicles in Europe have become considerably more efficient in
recent years. (108)
6. Europe has once again tightened the reins on the CO2 limit values for
motor vehicles and is requiring a further reduction of CO2 within an even
shorter span of time. (112)
5. CO2 legislation in Europe shows the most stringent target values in an
international comparison. (110)
8. Vehicle fleet limit values under 95 grams cannot be achieved with
conventional engine types, and the market success of alternative engine
types is still uncertain. (116)
7. Der Pkw-Sektor ist auch ohne eine weitere Verschärfung der CO2-
Grenzwerte nach 2020 auf Kurs, um die Ziele der EU-Klimapolitik bis 2030
zu erfüllen.(114)
9. EU environmental legislation is not coherent and, for a long time, had
other priorities than CO2 reduction. This had various consequences,
including an increase of CO2 emissions. (119)
10. Today’s CO2 laws regulate only new vehicles, completely disregarding
the remaining vehicle fleet. (122)
11. An effective reduction of CO2 emissions cannot address new vehicles
alone but must take a much broader approach. (124)
Balance between climate
protection and industrial
policy
12. The EU is targeting a 20%
industry share of GDP for the
year 2020. This goal is
presently a long way away,
since industrial and climate
protection policy are not yet
aligned. (126)
13. The CO2 abatement costs
vary greatly between sectors
and are most pronounced in
the automotive sector. (129
14. Emissions trading as the
most economically efficient
form of CO2 regulation can
easily be applied to road
traffic. (131)
The core theses: Brief overview

4
1 Megatrends
2 Political framework
3 Transportation sector
4 Other sectors
5 Outlook
Agenda
CO2-Regulation in Europe
Megatrends
CO2-emissions Fuels Globalisation

Carbon reservoirs in in billions of tonnes
The carbon cycle
Soil 1.580
Surface water 1.020
Sediments 150
Deep sea 38.100
Photosynthesis
and respiration Combustion
Gas exchange
between the ocean
and atmosphere
Dissolved
organic carbon
< 700
Sea organisms 3
Vegetation 610
Fossil fuels and cement
production 4.000
Megatrends
CO2-emissions Fuels Globalisation Political framework Transportation sector Other sectors Outlook
Atmosphere 750

Source: IEA, CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion – 2018
Emissions from fuel use, in millions of tonnes
CO2 emissions: Europe’s share sharply decreasing
10.3% 14.8%
28.2%
23.4%
23.2%
15.0%
19.6% 16.1% 9.9%
46.7% 45.9% 47.0%
1990 2002 2016
China USA EU Rest of the world
20 502 23 884
Compared to the year 1990, the
absolute CO2 emissions are
decreasing in the EU only.
Between 1990 and 2016 the EU
decreased the emissions by
approximately 832 Million tons.
At the current edge the US
emissions are falling. In 2016 the
emissions are converging to the
emissions of 1990.
The impact of European
regulations on global CO2
emissions continues to decline.
+32 314
Megatrends

Emissions from fuel use* – Changes between 1990 and 2016 in
Millions of tonnes
Reduction in Europe, strong increase in Asia
While China shows an increase of
328 per cent during the years
1990–2016, the EU shows a
decrease of 20.7 per cent.
In 2014 alone, China’s emissions
increased by 110 million tonnes.
Since then there is a stagnation of
emissions in China.
India increased it’s emissions
since 1990 by 228 Percent and
this value is still increasing.
+
-834.9
1,547.7
6,979.3
EU India China
* Corresponding to category 1A according to the UNFCCC
classification system
Megatrends

Sources: EEA, 2018 (v21); IEA, CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion – 2017
EU passenger cars – Relevant, yet not crucial
Relevant: Europe’s total passenger
car traffic 2016 emitted 538 million
tonnes of CO2, an upward trend
compared to 2015.
Crucial? China, on the other hand,
is showing a strong upwards trend
in its use of fossil fuels – emitting
nearly 526 million tonnes of CO2 in
just three weeks.
Dynamic: between 2014 and 2015
the plus in China was about 60
millions of tons. In the following
year the emissions increased by 8
million tons.
+
450
554 538
63
372
706
121
375
523
EU
passenger
cars traffic
China
road traffic
China
CO2 emissions in 21 days
CO2 emissions in millions of tons
Megatrends

CO2 emissions for the year 2016, in millions of tonnes
10 countries, two-thirds of the CO2 emissions
527
541
563
589
732
1,147
1,439
2,077
4,833
9,102
Saudi Arabia
Canada
Iran
Korea
Germany
Japan
Russia
India
USA
China
Megatrends

10
* For information only; ** Not including international air and maritime traffic. These are not classified as national emissions in the context of the Kyoto report
Sources: EEA, 2018 (v21)
Figures for 2016, as percentage CO2EQ
CO2 emissions in the EU 28
Transportation sector by mode of transport
07%
12%
48% 44%
26% 27%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1990 2016
Commercial
Vehicles
Passenger Cars
Civil aviation
Rail transport
Waterway
transport
Other
Int. Aviation
Int. Waterway
transport
Emissions according to sector
29.9%
21.3%9.9%
13.4%
10.8%
14.7%
Generation
of heat
and energy
Industry
Passenger cars
Other sectors
Other modes of
transport **
Agriculture
Megatrends

1,659 1,617
1,195
1,376
1,098
849
785
987
931
643
522
511
523
441
415
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
1990 2007 2016
Other
Households
Agriculture
Transportation
Industry and
construction
Power generation
-5.7%
Source: EEA, 2018 (v21)
Greenhouse gas emissions in the EU 28 by sector, in millions of
tonnes
Sector development
► Split development after the fall of
the Iron Curtain
► Traffic emissions increased quickly
after 1990, since Eastern Europe was
integrated into the European
Economic Area. Emissions have been
decreasing since 2007, even in the
transportation sector, but began to
rise again in 2014.
► In the early 1990s, considerable
reductions were visible in the
industry and energy generation
sectors. Their emissions levels
stagnated until around 2007, then
dropped with the economic crisis.
5,410
4,884
3,991
+
Megatrends

Global CO2 emissions are continuously increasing, especially in
Asia.
CO2 emissions are declining only in Europe.
The reduction of emissions in Europe is hardly significant when
viewed against the increase of emissions in Asia.
Today, European regulations have relatively little influence on
global CO2 emissions, and the influence is continuing to decline.
From the perspective of climate research, it is the overall
volume of emissions at the global level which is relevant. The
country or specific source of the emissions is essentially
insignificant.
Summary: CO2 emissions
Megatrends

Kategorie 1
Kategorie 2
Kategorie 3
Kategorie 4
Chart Title
Datenreihe 3 Datenreihe 2 Datenreihe 1
Fuels: Well-to-wheel emissions are what counts
Megatrends
CO2-emissionen Kraftstoffe Globalisierung Politischer Rahmen Verkehrssektor Andere Sektoren Ausblick
Fuel Consumption per
100 km (Vehicle
from compact-
class in NEDC)
price in €
per
TTW CO2 Emissions
In g CO2 / Km
WTW GHG-Emissions
In g CO2eq / km
price*
in Euro
per 100 km
Super E5 (conventional) 4,9 L 1,40 L
115,72 144,93 6,86 €
Diesel B7 (conventional) 3,9 L 1,14 L 102,86 128,74 4,45 €
PHEV (Benzin E5 + Conv.
Strom) 49,59 99,39 4,77 €
LPG (Remote well) 6,4 L 1,57 L 104,37 127,93 3,66 €
Natural Gas (H-Gas, EU-
Mix)
3,5 Kg 1,09 Kg
88,9 109,42 3,81 €
Electricity (D-Mix 2015) 12,7 kW/h 0,29 KW/h 0,0 74,55 3,71 €
Hydrogen (EU Mix) 0,97 Kg 9,50 Kg 0,0 134,2 9,22 €
Bioethanol E85 (wood) 5,88 L 0,99 L 112,31 35,91 5,81 €
Bioethanol E85 (grain) 5,88 L 0,99 L 112,31 119,69 5,81 €
Biodiesel B100 (Rapeseed) 4,29 L 1,43 L 121,41 85,99 6,13 €
Electricity (Regenerativ) 12,7 KW/h 0,29 KW/h 0,0 5,33 3,71 €
Hydrogen (Aircraft) 0,97 Kg 9,50 Kg 0,0 15,14 9,22 €
E-Gas (Regenerativ) 3,5 Kg - Kg 88,9 5,21 n.e.
Synthetical diesel (Reg.) 3,9 L - L
102,86 2,18
n.e. (not yet commercially
available)
NichtregenerativRegenerativE-Fuels
TTW: Tank-to-Wheel; WTW: Well-to-Wheel; CO2eq – CO2 Äquivalent
Comparison of emissions and alternative fuels

Source: Bloomberg, Baker Hughes (Stand April 2018)
But the supply is already declining
Number of active drilling towers in the USA
Oil prices rise again in 2018
In US Dollar
High oil prices: Incentive for more efficient
motor vehicles
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
02/01/09
02/07/09
02/01/10
02/07/10
02/01/11
02/07/11
02/01/12
02/07/12
02/01/13
02/07/13
02/01/14
02/07/14
02/01/15
02/07/15
02/01/16
02/07/16
02/01/17
02/07/17
02/01/18
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
03/01/00
03/01/01
03/01/02
03/01/03
03/01/04
03/01/05
03/01/06
03/01/07
03/01/08
03/01/09
03/01/10
03/01/11
03/01/12
03/01/13
03/01/14
03/01/15
03/01/16
03/01/17
03/01/18
03/01/19
Brent WTI
► Oil prices have greatly increased from the year 2000 till 2014.
► As a result of fracking in the USA, oil prices started to diverge in 2010.
► The supply side in the US is strongly linked with oil prices. Rising prices lead to an increase in active oil rigs
and vice versa.
+
Megatrends

► Fracking has strongly impacted the world market for fossil fuels.
► Favourable: The Gas price sank since 2005 clearly under the European level.
► The USA has greatly increased its domestic production of oil and natural gas.
► Independency: This greatly reduced the USA’s need to import fuel.
US production and import of oil and
natural gas
Index, 1990 = 100
Gasprice
in US-$ per 1,000m3
Fracking has changed the rules of the game
Fossil energy in the USA
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 2017
Gas production
Oil production
Gas import
Oil import
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Europe
USA
+50%
+81%
-30%
-33%
+
15
Sources: Weltbank, Economic Monitor (GEM) Commodities, 2017; IEA, World Energy Statistics, 2018
Megatrends

Various fuel types reveal a very different carbon footprint in the well-to-
wheel analysis. Today, electricity and natural gas are the alternatives with
the most favourable ratio of emission reductions to fuel costs.
The EU has a very high rate of dependence on imported energy carriers. This
leads to cases of political dependence. Avoiding such dependencies is a key
driver for European policy in the field of primary energy supply.
The development of oil prices creates innovative pressure on motor vehicle
manufacturers, since fuel consumption is a key selling point. Even without
regulation measures, customers would increasingly demand efficient
vehicles.
Summary: Fuels
Megatrends
16

*Partly estimates or forecasts by the IWF
Source: Internationaler Währungsfonds
Share of the world GDP*
as percentage
1991 – 2017
The weights are shifting in the world GDP
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Advanced countries
Emerging and developing countries
► The dominance of the industrialised countries is crumbling.
► China’s significance is rapidly growing.
+
Megatrends
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
USA
China
Japan
Germany
EU-15 (without Germany)
17
Share of the world GDP*
as percentage

Source: UNCTAD, IWF, Weltbank, IW Köln
Index for economic relations, 1980 = 100
1980 = 100, nominal figures
Direct investments propel globalisation
► Globalisation means the
establishment of global
production structures
through direct
investments.
► Since 1980, the inventory
of direct investments has
grown at least five times
as fast as international
trade.
► Approximately one-third
of international trade is
already taking place in
corporate networks.
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Global GDP Globale Exports of goods and services
Global direkt investments stocks abroad
+4481%
+930%
+662%
+
18Megatrends

The emphasis of the world economy is shifting more and more towards Asia.
This trend is being fuelled by the establishment of production locations near the
market.
Already today, the European locations are in strong competition with the countries in
the growth regions, and many European locations are losing ground.
The significance of regulation in Europe is declining with the significance of the
European economies.
If European industrial locations are to survive in terms of global competition, the EU
must provide better local conditions.
Summary Globalisation
Megatrends
19

20
1 Megatrends
4 Other sectors
5 Outlook
Agenda
Political framework
Climate policy Regulatory density and trade-offs

Only Europe really joined in
Kyoto-Protocol
Kyoto signatories
Almost all of
the world’s
nations entered
into the Kyoto
agreement.
Political framework
Climate policy Regulatory density and trade-offs Transportation sector Other sectors OutlookMegatrends
+
21

Kyoto-Protocol
Kyoto signatories
with emission target
► Almost all of
the world’s
nations entered
into the Kyoto
agreement.
► Only a few
countries
accepted
emission
targets.
+
22Political framework

Kyoto-Protocol
► Almost all of the
world’s nations
entered into the
Kyoto agreement.
► Only a few countries
accepted emission
targets.
► Soft targets, in some
cases: countries of
the former Eastern
bloc merely aimed to
not exceed their
figures from 1990.
+
Kyoto signatories
who kept their emission target

Stipulated reduction compared to 2005, as percentage
The EU plans to clearly increase its pace
► After 2020, the
non-ETS sector
is expected to
reduce twice as
much in 10 years
as it did during
the previous 15.
► The cost per
reduced tonne of
CO2 will increase
considerably.
-34%
2020
2030
-21% -10%
-43% -30%
-12%
ETS*-
Sektor
Non-ETS
sector
EU GHG target
(Basis: 2005)
 Emissions trading
 Establishment
of a market
stabilisation
reserve
 Avoidance of relocation
effects
How?  Incorporating
binding national
targets
 Supporting measures,
e.g. emissions
standards
+

Sources: BMWi, UBA, AGEB
The EU’s long-term targets, as percentage; base year 1990
The EU moves forward undeterred
-20%
20%
-20%
-21%
21%
-17%
-40%
27%
-27%
Target 2020 Forecast 2020 Proposal 2030
► The European
Commission
predicts that the
climate targets for
2020 will largely be
reached.
► Even if the rest of
the world has not
joined in so far, the
EU plans to
increase its tar-gets
considerably after
2020.
Reduction of greenhouse
gas emissions
Market share of renewable energy
on gross final energy consumption
Efficiency target: reduction
of energy consumption per
unit of GDP
+

Sources: BMWi, UBA, AGEB
German federal government reduction targets, as percentage; base year
1990
Ten years faster: The German federal government
exceeds EU targets
-28%
15%
-6%
-40%
18%
-20%
-55%
30%
Status 2016 Target 2020 Proposal 2030
► The German
federal govern-
ment is currently
demanding addi-
tional efforts to
reach the target
for 2020.
► For the period
after 2020, the
stipulated pace of
change will
be dramatically
increased.
Reduction of
greenhouse gas
emissions
Market share of renewable energy
on gross final energy consumption
Reduction of
primary energy
consumption
compared to 2008
+

Sources: BMWi, IW Köln, KBA,UNFCCC, AGEB
German federal government reduction targets, as percentage
Buildings and traffic
-20%
2%
-10%
1.000.000
-11%
1%
4%
98.280
Target 2020 Status 2016
► The target value for
road traffic is 136–
141 million tonnes of
CO2; value in 2016:
160.2 million tonnes
of CO2.
► The building sector
will likely miss its
target considerably.
► On January 1st 2018
53.861 battery
electric cars and
44.419 Plug-In-
Hybrids were
licensed.
Number of electric cars
Final energy
consumption compared to 2005
Rate of renovation p.a.
Energy demand compared to 2008
BuildingsTraffic
+
Fleet in January 2018

Global climate policy is currently experiencing a crisis.
The EU enthusiastically advanced in the Kyoto process, but no one followed. Outside
the EU, only the transition countries met their targets, which were very soft in the
first place.
The EU will reach its climate targets – even after the economic distortions following
2008 – and plans to considerably increase its pace in climate protection in the period
after 2020.
The federal government wants to go further than the EU. While traffic emissions are
essentially on track, areas such as the building sector are far from being able to reach
its targets.
Summary Climate policy
Political framework
Climate policy Regulatory density and trade-offs Transportation sector Other sectorsn OutlookMegatrends
28

Source: Eurostat 2019
The manufacturing industry’s share of the gross value, as
percentage
The EU industrial sector: Collapse rather than rebirth
► EU target: The
industrial sector is
expected to have a
20 per cent share
of the GDP in 2020
► Germany is
reaching this
target. The UK, Italy
and France give
cause for concern.
► Countries outside
of Europe are
improving quickly.
Europe must
respond in order to
secure its position.
EU target
for 2020
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
22%
24%
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017
Germany Spain France Italy UK EU 28
+
Political framework
29

Sources: EU, Eurostat
Progress in noise and safety targets
► Since 1990, the EU has shown considerable progress and has set ambitious regulations concerning noise
emissions and safety.
► Additional sound reduction and safety devices bring extra weight and changes to the car body.
► The further targets result in a measurable overconsumption of new vehicles.
+
Traffic safety: Ambitious targets
Road traffic fatalities in the EU 28 countries
75,400
54,000
25,100
15,500
1991 2001 2018 Target 2020
-28%
-53%
-39%
Noise targets: Noise emissions are expected to decline
by up to 75 per cent.
EU vehicle noise limit values in dB (A)
65
70
75
80
85
90
1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
2016
New measurement
Trucks > 150 kW
Trucks 75 - 150 kW
Trucks< 75 kW
Cars
Motorcycles
Trucks> 12 t, > 250 kW
Trucks> 12 t, 150-250 kW
Trucks> 12 t, < 150 kW
Trucks 3,5-12 t, > 135 kW
Trucks 3,5-12 t, < 135 kW
Cars> 200 kW, < 4 Sitze
Cars> 160 kW
Cars 120-160 kW
Cars< 120 kW
A reduction by 3 dB
always represents
a halving of the
measurable
sound.
.
80 dB88 dB

* without international aviation and shipping traffic. ** including agricultural vehicles and fishing boats
Source: Annex I of the 2014 EMEP GUIDELINES FOR REPORTING EMISSIONS AND PROJECTIONS DATA UNDER THE CONVENTION ON LONG-RANGE TRANSBOUNDARY AIR
POLLUTION v2.0, 2018
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
Cars Commercial vehicles Other traffic Industry
Public energy supply Agriculture Households Other sectors
-69%
-46%
-58%
-71%
Data for EU 28* in kilo tonnes, Nox emissions converted in NO2
Nitrogene oxide emissions dropped by 56 per cent
Political framework

* for information only; ** without international aviation and shipping traffic. These are not regarded as national emissions.
Sources: Annex I of the 2014 EMEP GUIDELINES FOR REPORTING EMISSIONS AND PROJECTIONS DATA UNDER THE CONVENTION ON LONG-RANGE TRANSBOUNDARY AIR
Data of 2015, in per cent of the Nox emissions converted in NO2
Nitrogene oxide emissions in the EU 28
Transportation sectors by transport modes
14%
32%03%
10%
46%
23%
29% 25%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1990 2016
Comercial Vehicle
Passenger Car
Civil aviation
(national)
Rail traffic
Inland navigation
Other
Int. aviation*
Int. shipping*
Emissions sectors
16.5
17.2
27.4
17.5
13.6
5.2 2.6
Public energy supply
Industry
Cars
Other sectors
Other traffic**
Agriculture
Households
Political framework

Sources: ICCT, 2014; Kraftfahrtbundesamt (KBA), 2016, Deutsche Umwelthilfe (DUH), 2016, Auto Motor Sport (AMS), 2015; Auto Motor Sport (AMS), 2016; Bosch
The gap between RDE and laborotory is closing
Real-Driving-Emissions NOx – Fast progress
The first RDE tests of
passenger cars were
conducted in 2014.
The performance of
the up to date cars in
RDE tests is much
better.
The Values taken from
AMS show the same
model with two
engine generations
The technology to
meet the limit values
is on the market.
+
NOxing/km
Gap
CO2-Regulation in Europe 33
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
Euro 3 Euro 4 Euro 5 Euro 6
EU litmit value (Laboratory) ICCT (2014)
KBA (04.2016) DUH (09.2016)
AMS (11.2015) AMS (05.2016)
Political framework

Source: EEA – Air Quality Statistics, 2018
The 12 cities of the EU with the highest level of NO2-Immissions
in 2016
NO2: A European Problem
Political framework
9 1
2
5
8
3
43
7
City 2017 in
µg/m3
2010 in
µg/m3
2006 in
µg/m3
London 83,7 98,3 110,6
Paris 82,5 95,5 91,1
Turin 79,8 74,4 94,0
Munich 78,1 98,7 97,5
Marseille 75,1 82,6 87,9
Stuttgart 73,0 99,9 121,3
Darmstadt 71,9 n.a. n.a.
Lyon 70,6 89,8 n.a.
Hafod yr ynys 70,1 n.a. n.a.
Mailand 64,4 73,4 77,6
Florenz 63,7 101,8 71,6
Cologne 62,1 65,0 n.a.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
12
10
11

* for information only; ** ** without international aviation and shipping traffic.
Transportation sector by transport modesEmissions by sectors
Data of 2016, in kilo tonnes fine dust (PM10)
PM10 emissions in the EU 28
30.0%
5.3%
13.3%
7.0%
5.9%
32.8%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2016
Abrasion (breaks, tyres,
roadway)
Light duty vehicles
(exhaust pipe)
Heavy duty vehicles
(exhaust pipe)
Car (exhaust pipe)
Rail traffic
Navigation
Other
Aviation (total)*
Int. aviation*
735.8
349.8
377.7
85.8
128.8
75.0
327.7
Industry
Road (Exhaust)
Other sectors
Agriculture
Households
Road (abrasion)
Total
emissions**
2,080.61 kt
Political framework

* for information only; ** ** without international aviation and shipping traffic.
Transportation sector by
transport modes
Emissions by sectors
Data of 2016, in kilo tonnes of ultrafine dust (PM2,5)
PM2,5 emissions in the EU 28
37.3%
5.8%
14.3%
7.4%
6.6%
20.6%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2016
Abrasion (breaks, tyres,
roadway)
Light duty vehicles
(exhaust pipe)
Heavy duty vehicles
(exhaust pipe)
Car (exhaust pipe)
Rail traffic
Navigation
Other
Aviation (total)*
Int. aviation*
682.5
185.7
97.4
85.2
60.5
48.7
193.9
Industry
Road (Exhaust)
Other sectors
Agriculture
Households
Road (Abrasion)
Total
emissions**
1,353.88 kt
Political framework

Source: Nature, 2013, Heft 493
Greater efficiency leads to more consumption – yet the
reduction effects prevail
Rebound effect: A real problem
► The idea of the rebound effect
is that more efficient vehicles
have lower operational costs
and are thus used more
heavily.
► The rebound effect is real and
can be proven, but it should
not be overemphasised.
► Simulations show that 30 per
cent of the reduction effect is
eaten up again as a result of
additional traffic.
► In spite of the rebound effect,
more efficient technology still
pays off.
-7% +2%
Simulation of the energy consumption of road traffic in the USA
(in TWh), when implementing the targets for 2025
4,374
4,149
3,900
4,000
4,100
4,200
4,300
4,400
No targets Measures for
higher
energy
efficiency
Rebound
Effect
After measure
and rebound
Decreased petrol consumption
through more efficient motor
vehicles.
-7% +2%
More routes are
travelled by car
+

CO2 reduction is only one of the traffic-related targets being
pursued by the EU.
In the past, traffic-related regulation measures were focused on
exhaust emissions and transportation safety.
Huge advancements have been made in regard to safety and
harmful emissions of motor vehicles; but this has resulted in a
higher consumption of energy.
The top priority for the future should be the reduction of CO2
emissions from motor vehicles.
Summary: Regulation density and conflicting
goals
Political framework
38

39
1 Megatrends
2 Political frame
4 Other sectors
5 Outlook
Agenda
Transportation sector
Traffic today CO2-emissions road Efficiency road Regulation road

Source: Eurostat, Transport in Figures 2017
Trucks are facilitating the Single European Market
► The merging of the EU triggered tremendous growth in the area of freight transport.
► The creation of the Single European Market fuelled growth on both road and rail.
► Over 70 per cent of Europe’s freight is transported by truck.
► Between 2007 and 2014, freight transport in Europe has decreased by 9 per cent but now it is rising again.
+
Political framework Other sectors OutlookMegatrends Traffic today CO2-emissions road Efficiency road Regulation road
Development of freight transport in the EU
1995 =100
1,289 1,804
388
412
237
262
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Freight transport in the EU
1995 and 2015 in tkm
1.914
2.478
Road Rail Other Total
40

3.937
5,508
422
556
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
504
52
5.329
Verkehrssektor
41
Source: Eurostat, Transport in Figures 2017
High level of dynamics in air transport, but cars are the
backbone
► Strong growth in air transport since the fall of the government monopoly.
► Considerable growth in rail transport since the EU started promoting national rail transport markets.
► Over 80 per cent of traffic is attributable to passenger transportation on roads. A stagnation has been evident
since 2004
+
Development of passenger traffic in the EU
1995 =100
Passenger transport in the EU
1995 und 2016 in pkm
6.554
Car Rail Air
190
Bus Motorcycle
41Transportation sector

Sources: EU, Trends to 2050, 2013; BMVI, Verflechtungsprognose 2030, 2014
in billions of tonne kilometres
Trucks will continue to dominate the considerably growing transport market
Official forecasts for freight transport in 2030
► There is some evidence that the PRIMES Prognosis from 2013 is outdated. It predicts an increase
in goods traffic between 2010 and 2015, while it actually heavily decreased (Folie 42).
+
Traffic forecast for GermanyTraffic forecast for the EU
337 429
393
602
1,764
2,399
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
2010 2030
+36%
+54%
+27%
62 77
108
154
437
607
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2010 2030
Road
Railway
Waterway+39%
+43%
+23%

Quellen: Prognos, World Transport Report 2015//2016
in billions of tonnes kilometres
Limited increase in road transport in comparison to the official prognosis
Current forecasts for freight transport in 2030
► The current prognosis covers 12 EU Countries with about 92 percent of total road transport. The coverage of rail
and inland waterways is less sufficient.
► Growth rates after 2015 hardly differ from the official forecast.
+
Traffic forecast for GermanyTraffic forecast for the EU
132.5 165
312
458
1,658
2,045
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
2010 2030
+23%
+47%
+25%
62 72
107
160
435
554
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
2010 2030
Road
Railway
Waterway+27%
+49%
+15%

Sources: EU, Trends to 2050, 2014; BMVI, Verflechtungsprognose 2030, 2014
in billions of passenger kilometres
Cars will form the backbone of passenger transport for the long term
Official passenger transport forecasts for 2030
► Over the next 20 years, passenger transport will show a slower rate of growth than freight transport.
► Rail transport is expected to show substantial growth and to gain market shares.
► But: In passenger kilometres, between now and 2030, motor vehicle transport in the EU will increase by more
than the total rail traffic being transported in 2030.
+
Traffic forecast for the EU Traffic forecast for Germany
53 87
84 10078
83
902
992
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2010 2030
Motorised
individual
transport
Public road
transportation
Railway
Air
+6%
+19%
+65%
+10%
527 888
496
714513
602
4,893
5,714
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
2010 2030
+18%
+49%
+69%
+17%

Source: ACEA, 2017; VDA ,2017
Existing vehicles are not covered by the regulation
Limit values affect only new vehicles
► Each year, only about 5 per cent of the vehicle fleet in the EU is replaced.
► Existing vehicles hold huge potential for CO2 reduction.
► That is why measures for replacing the existing vehicle fleet are essential
+
Approx. 15.1 million
new vehicles were
licensed in the EU in 2015.
Altogether, approx.
255 million cars
are licensed in the EU.

Sources: ACEA Report Vehicles in Use, 2017; ACEA Pocketbook 2017/2018
The existing vehicle fleet represents the
technology from 10 years ago
► Licensed cars in Europe are 9.6 years old, on average – and the trend is increasing.
► The average age of cars in several member states is more than 10 years.
► But: The best method for reducing CO2 is to speed up the rate at which existing vehicles are replaced.
+
Age of passenger cars in Europe
as percentage in 2015
Average age of licensed cars
in years
46
10%
14%
27%
49%
< 2 years
2 - 5 years
5 - 10 years
> 10 years
16.9
16.2
16.0
15.0
14.6
14.5
14.3
13.9
13.6
13.5
12.5
11.9
11.8
11.3
10.8
10.4
9.9
9.3
8.9
8.8
8.8
8.4
8.2
7.8
6.3

Sources: EEA, Monitoring CO2 Emissions from new passenger cars, 2016; ACEA, 2016
In its reduction of CO2, Europe relies on
diesel
► Since the mid-90s, Europe’s fleet of new vehicles had a growing share of cars that run on diesel but now it is
declining.
► Diesel plays a significant part in Europe’s CO2 reduction progress.
► Diesel motors are primarily used in vehicles that are expected to have high mileage.
+
New car registrations in the EU 28 in 2016 Existing vehicle fleet in the EU in 2016
42.0%
53.9%
4.1%
Diesel Petrol Other
100% = 255 Mio. Cars in the stock
265,252
58,250
64,342
92,785
LPG
49.4%
47.0%
3.6%
Diesel Petrol Other
100% = 14,7 million new car
registrations
CNG
Plug-In
Electric

Road traffic is the indispensable backbone of mobility for passengers and freight in
Europe.
According to official forecasts, the dominance of roads in Europe will not change
between now and 2030.
Since 2007, traffic volumes on the road have declined. Today, these volumes are
often below the projected levels; and even the official growth expectations must be
questioned.
The replacement of Europe’s existing vehicles is an effective measure for reducing
emissions; but it will be another ten years before the more efficient new vehicles
dominate the fleet.
Summary: Transportation today
Political framework CO2-emissions road Other sectors
Megatrends Traffic today Efficiency road Regulation road Outlook

90
100
110
120
130
140
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
EU 28 EU 15 without Germany Germany
115,7
103,9
132,8
122,2
117,6
128,7
Quelle: EEA, 2017 (v20)
CO2EQ-Emissions of road traffic, 1990 = 100
The turnaround came in Germany first
► Since 1999, emissions in Germany have declined by 24 million tonnes and are now on the levels of 1990.
► From 2000 on, an increase in emissions could primarily be seen in Eastern and Southern Europe.
► The turnaround in the EU 28 did not begin until the crisis of 2008.
► In the years 2014 till 2016 emissions increased significantly.
+
Political framework
Other sectorsMegatrends Traffic today Efficiency road Regulation road OutlookCO2-emissions road
49

Absolute CO2EQ-emissions, 1990 = 100
Car traffic in the EU: CO2-emissions rising again
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
road cars
128,3
122,2123,1
116,5
► Car emissions have shown a much lower rate of increase than overall road traffic emissions.
► Car emissions have largely stagnated since 2002 and have been rapidly declining in 2011 but they are rising again
since 2013.
+
50
Political framework

In millions of tonnes of CO2EQ
EU: Der Emissionsanteil des Güterverkehrs ist..?The share of emissions from
freight transport has significantly increased
► Since 2007, the CO2 emissions
of road traffic in the EU have
been declining. But since 2013 they
are rising again.
► Between 1990 and 2007, emissions
from truck traffic in particular saw a
rapid increase.
► Since 2007, emissions from freight
transport have been declining again.
► The increase of emissions from car
traffic was relatively moderate.
Emissions have stagnated since around
2004 and have been declining from
2007 till 2012. Since 2013 they are
rising again.
+0 200 400 600 800 1,000
1990 2007 2016
Total road traffic
Cars
Heavy and
Light –weight
trucks
+22%
+16%
+33%
Shift
1990 - 2016
-5,1%
-4,8%
-5,5%
Shift
2007–2016
Political framework

Source: EEA, 2019
Emissions from new vehicles decreasing rapidly
Country
Average CO2 emissions of
newly registered cars in
2017, in g per km
Change from
2007 to 2017,
as percentage
Portugal 104,7 -27,25
Denmark 108,3 -33,28
Netherlands 107,1 -32,98
Greece 108,8 -34,18
France 110,4 -26,10
Malta 111,0 -24,90
Ireland 111,6 -30,94
Croatia 113,1 k.A.
Italy 113,3 -22,66
Spain 115,0 -24,93
Belgium 115,9 -24,15
Finland 118,2 -33,33
Slovenia 119,6 -23,48
Romania 120,6 -22,09
Austria 120,7 -25,90
UK 121,1 -26,47
Cyprus 122,2 -28,24
Sweden 122,3 -32,58
Czech Republik 124,1 -19,52
Hungary 125,6 -18,97
Slowakia 126,1 -17,42
Bulgaria 126,2 -26,46
Luxembourg 127,0 -23,40
Germany 127,2 -24,96
Lithuania 127,4 -27,82
Poland 127,6 -16,89
Latvia 128,8 -29,81
Estonia 132,8 -26,87
EU 28 118,6 -25,68
< 110 g per km
< 120 g per km
< 125 g per km
≥ 125 g per km
CO2 Emissionen
Higher
emissions in
the East. Four
EU countries
below 110
52
Political framework

Source: ACEA, 2016
CO2 emissions of new vehicles in the EU, as percentage
High-emission cars are being phased out
► The broad range of today’s new
vehicles already emits less than 130 g
CO2/km.
► Vehicles with high emissions are on
the decline.
► In 1995 80 per cent of the new cars
emitted more than 160 g CO2/km.
► Vehicles with emissions under 95 g
CO2/km are now entering the market.
► More than 1/10th out of the new cars
already meet the target for 2021.
+
97%
75%
22%
3%
25%
66%
11%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1995 2008 2016
> 130 g 96 g - 130 g <95 g
53
Political framework

Soruce: EEA, Monitoring CO2 Emissions from new passenger cars, 2019
CO2-emissions of new vehicles in the EU by engine type, in g of CO2 per km
Diesel- and petrol-powered vehicles are
reducing their emissions
► Petrol-powered vehicles are
showing great advancements
and are catching up with
diesel engines.
► But: Diesel engines dominate
more among larger vehicles,
while petrol engines
dominate among smaller
vehicles.
► The advancements among
diesel engines appear
stronger, since diesel vehicles
spend more time on the road
each year.
► In 2017 Diesel Emissions
climbed for the first time.
+17000%16810%
16490%
16160%
15660%
14770%
14250%
13760%
13370%
12860%
12560%
12250%12170%12160%
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Diesel Petrol
-24,5
-28,4%
54
Political framework

Source: ACEA, 2017, Reducing CO2 from trucks: progress in practice – Third-party assessment
Scientifically evaluated road test of comparable heavy trucks of different
years of construction for determining the real CO2 emissions
Heavy trucks: clear progress in practical test
1996: 436 PS
1992: 500 PS
1991: 405 PS
1994: 402 PS
1994: 514 PS
2016: 450 PS
2016: 500 PS
2016: 460 PS
2016: 460 PS
2016: 571 PS
Daimler
DEKRA
Scania
AVL
Volvo
AVL
MAN
TÜV Süd
Iveco
AVL
-22%
-1,10%
Reduktion of emissions per year
Total difference in emissions of old
and new
1
2
1
2
-25%
-1,04%
1
2
-19%
-0,76%
1
2
-31,5%
-1,45%
1
2
-21%
-0,95%
1
2
Political framework
55

The CO2 emissions of road traffic in the EU have been decreasing for years.
Compared to 1990, the emissions from truck traffic in particular increased
dynamically but have been decreasing again since 2007. Emissions from car
traffic have stagnated since 2004 and have shown a clear decline since 2007.
The increased distribution of more fuel-efficient new vehicles accounts for
the decline in car emissions.
The increased use of diesel engines – especially in the case of larger vehicles
– was a key driver in the reduction of emissions.
Summary: CO2 emissions on the road
Traffic today CO2-emissions road
Political framework Other sectors OutlookMegatrends Efficiency road Regulation road
56

Source: Odyssee Database, 2016
EU: Increased energy efficiency in road traffic
► The use of energy per unit of output has reduced considerably in European road traffic since 2000.
► But: Since 2007, truck traffic in the EU has relinquished a portion of its efficiency gains. Two new EU standards
related to the reduction of pollutants were introduced in this time period, which likely led to the increased
consumption of new vehicles.
► The increased efficiency of cars has accelerated considerably since 2007.
+
Political framework Other sectors OutlookMegatrends Traffic today Efficiency road Regulation roadCO2-emissions road
Trucks
in kWh/1.000tkm
0 125 250 375 500 625 750
2000 2007 2015
-10%
Change
2000 - 2014Change
2007 - 2015
-19%
-2,5%
-0,0%
0 100 200 300 400 500
2000 2007 2015
-8,4%
Cars
in kWh/1.000pkm
-11%-4,3%
-6,4%
57

248.65
209.94
24.34
63.1
Source: Odyssee Database Juli 2018
Increases in efficiency are obscured by growth in the quantity
of freight transported
EU freight transport between 2000 and 2016
Development of energy consumption by impact, in terawatt
hours (TWh)
More traffic Overall
impact
+29,8
Efficiency Other,
Modal shift
► More efficient vehicles
and routing help to offset
approximately the
increased consumption
resulting from other
factors.
► Modal shift effects play a
subordinate role with an
additional consumption of
29 TWH.
+

Source: Odyssee Database Oktober 2017
More efficient vehicles have a growing impact on energy
consumption levels
Car traffic between 2000 und 2015
In terawatt hours (TWh)
Overall
impact
OtherMore traffic
+175,4
Energy
reduction
measures
+123,3
-391,9
► As a result of increasing traffic
volumes, energy consumption
in car traffic has increased
significantly since the year
2000.
► But: The dominant impact
came about through more
efficient vehicles.
► The total energy consumption
in the year 2015 was on the
same level as in the base year
2000.
+
203,7
59
9.3
-391,9
203,7

More efficient vehicles have a growing impact on energy
consumption levels
Car traffic between 2000 und 2015
2000 – 2007 in terawat hours (TWh)
Total
impact
+96,1
+85,6
Energy saving
measurements
Other
+144,6
More traffic
-155,2
► Around the turn of the millennium, additional traffic led to an increase in energy consumption.
This effect has changed course in the last seven years.
► During the second half of the reported period, the reduction effect became dominant against
the effect of additional traffic, driven by the increased distribution of more efficient vehicles.
+
2007 – 2015 in terawat hours (TWh)
Total
impact
-49,0
Energy saving
measurements
-80,5Other
-82,3
More traffic
+50,8

Sources: KBA 2016; EEA, Monitoring CO2 Emissions from new passenger cars, 2016
Diesel ensures lower emissions from large
cars
New car registrations in Germany
Market shares by segment and engine type, in %
► Diesel is increasingly becoming the preferred engine for large vehicles that spend the most time on the road,
while petrol engines still dominate the smaller car classes.
► As a result of this trend diesel engines have become heavier (more powerful), and petrol engines have been
catching up in terms of standard fuel consumption. In 2016 a diesel car was 300 kg heavier than a petrol car.
► Fuel efficiency has in fact improved at essentially the same rate for both engine types.
► Luxury Class has by the highest share of alternative fuels.
+
Ø vehicle mass in kg
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
1,000
1,100
1,200
1,300
1,400
1,500
1,600
1,700
1,800
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Ø CO2-Emissions in g
Diesel Petrol
Increased efficiency 2004 – 2016
Emission per kg vehicle mass
Diesel - 28,68%
Petrol - 28,12%
96%
87%
69%
38%
22%
29%
62%
91%
71%
40%
24%
19%
1%
6%
25%
55%
66%
34%
34%
7%
23%
59%
75%
77%
11%
37%
Mini
Small
Compact
Medium
Upper Medium
Luxury
Off road
Sports car
Mini Van
Large Van
Utility
Other
Diesel Petrol Alternative

Source: own calculations
Where would Germany be without diesel?
CO2 emissions of newly registered cars in 2017
By segment and engine type, in g per km
► Diesel emissions are lower than those of petrol in all vehicle segments.
► Diesel engines dominate the larger classes of vehicles.
► The emissions level of new vehicles would be significantly higher without the use
of diesel engines.
+
How would emission levels compare if a
portion of the diesel engines were replaced by
petrol engines?
CO2 emissions in g per km
127.1
131.8
120.4
Real Petrol only Diesel only
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240
Mini
Small
Compact
Medium
Upper Medium
Luxury
Off road
Sports car
Mini Van
Large Van
Utility
Other
Diesel
Petrol

63
Development of road transport performence and CO2-Emissions
of road transport in Germany since 2000
Transport growth dominates the balance
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
140%
150%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018*
Road transport performence +41%
CO2-Emissions -10%
The calculation of the transport performance is carried out according to method of the Arbeitsgemeinschaft Energiebilanzen; Calculation factor 1tkm = 10 pkm
Source: Umweltbundesamt; Kraftfahrtbundesamt; Own Calculations

2
4
6
8
10
12
0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175
1 Gear 2 Gear 3 Gear 4 Gear 5 Gear 6 Gear
Speed in km/h
Consumption
l/100km
Quelle: VW
Shifting gears early saves fuel: the fuel consumption curve of a
Golf 1.4 TFSI (90 kW) in relation to its speed
The driver determines the fuel consumption
► Fuel saving training courses: Following the course, participants used approximately 20 per cent
less fuel than before. In Germany alone, the reduction potential from fuel-efficient driving is
estimated at 12 million tonnes of CO2.
► Gear shifting support is particularly effective in urban traffic: when driving at a speed of 50 km
per hour, the test vehicle consumes 1.2 litres less in fifth gear than in third.
+

Make 3 on 2
Two long trucks are able to transport as much load as three
standard trucks.
Low fuel consumption
The long truck rides more efficient than other trucks.
Consequence: less fuel consumption per load.
Make 3 on 2 – Bigger Loading volume cuts
fuel consumption
Standard truck 1 Standard truck 2 Standard truck 3
Load
Standard truck 1
Standard truck 2
Standard truck 3
+50%
+50%
16,5 m
Conventional semitrailer
17,8 m
Long semitrailer
Long truck
25,25 m
-10%
CO2
-25%
CO2
Route network
Long truck
Long truck 1
Long truck 2
Long truck 2Long truck 1

* Results from a field experiment of the federal government; loads were transported with a density of 0,72 kg/dm3 (paper: 0,8 kg/dm3)
Source: BMVI
Long trucks: 15 per cent efficiency
improvements confirmed in practical test*
► Long trucks are significantly more efficient in transporting high load volumes than conventional semitrailers.
► The advance in efficiency of a good 15 per cent lasts als long as the load volume will be fully used.
► Heavy loads can be transported much more efficiently than with normal trucks.
► A long truck consumes more fuel than a conventional semitrailer. This does only pay for the carrier, if he moves
more load than the today‘s truck can carry.
+
Long truck Conventional semitrailer
gross vehicle weight: 40t
Load volume: 155 m3
Valued track section: 8,900 km
Ø Fuel consumption: 33.9 l/100 km
gross vehicle weight : 36t
Load volume : 100 m3
Valued track section : 10,700 km
Ø Fuel consumption : 24.1 l /100 km
2.81
0.21
3.37
0.24
Payload in l /100 tkm Volume in l/100 m3km
Transport efficiency
+15%

More fuel efficient vehicles have led to a considerable increase in the overall
efficiency of road traffic since the year 2000.
Increased traffic volumes have long prevented the more efficient vehicle
technology from actually lowering the overall level of emissions.
Diesel engines were a major driver of the increasing efficiency. They have
led to considerably lower emissions, particularly in the case of larger
vehicles.
Low-cost possibilities for increasing efficiency are being wasted. Fuel saving
training courses can reduce consumption by 20 per cent.
The licensing of larger trucks could also save a lot of fuel.
Summary: Efficiency on the road
Political framework Other sectors OutlookMegatrends Traffic today CO2-emissions today Efficiency road Regulation road
67

* In legislation process
Source: ICCT, 2018
in g CO2/km under the New European Driving Cycle (NEDC)
The most stringent CO2 target values for new vehicles
► The EU emission standard for 2021 is the most stringent standard in the world.
► Even in 2025 it is unlikely that any country on earth will have more stringent limit values than the one stipulated
by the EU for 2021.
► The limit values being discussed in the EU for the year 2025 would be up to 50 per cent lower than those in the
USA.
► In November 2017 the EU Kommission proposed to lower the limit value within the period of 2021 until 2025 by
15 per cent and to codify a minus of 30 per cent until 2030.
+
*
68
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
US EU Japan China
205
172
187
152
118
115
151
213
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
95
117 105
125
97
81*
Actual levels for 2002 – 2016 Adopted for 2020–2025

Sources: EU, EEA
in g CO2/km
CO2 target values for 2021: High demands on
the automotive industry
 Independent of vehicle weight, manufacturers of large cars have to show greater reductions than high-volume manufacturers.
 In the nine years from 2006 to 2015, a reduction of the average emissions by 30 g CO2/km was required of new vehicles – from
160 g CO2/km down to 130 g CO2/km .
 Speeding up the pace: In the six years from 2015 to 2021, average emissions must be reduced by 35 g CO2/km – from 130 g
CO2/km down to 95 g CO2/km. For 2025 a suggestion has been raised by the commission of 81 g CO2/km, that is a minus of 14 g
CO2/km in four years.
+
Average weight of new passenger cars in kg
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800
FCA Italy
Renault
Toyota
Ford
VW Group
PSA
Mazda
Hyundai BMW Group
Daimler
EU: Fleet 2006
EU: Targetcurve 2015
EU: Targetcurve 2021
9 Jahre
6 Jahre
Real Values in 2017
Volvo130
95
160

Source: EU Kommission DG Transport, Weekly Oil Bulletin
Fuel tax per litre, in euro
– status as of: 28. January 2019
High CO2 emissions mean high payments:
91.5
87.7
84.5
84.4
75.4
74.2
73.7
73.4
73.3
70.7
69.9
68.6
68.1
66.9
66.7
66.0
63.4
61.3
60.6
59.8
59.7
58.6
58.3
56.9
56.2
53.6
50.8
49.0
0 30 60 90 120
United Kingdom
Italy
France
Belgium
Sweden
Ireland
Portugal
Netherlands
Finland
Estonia
Denmark
Slovenia
Greece
Croatia
Germany
Malta
Czech Republic
Hungary
Austria
Cyprus
Slovakia
Latvia
Spain
Romania
Poland
Lithuania
Bulgaria
Luxembourg
Diesel
107.4
103.0
102.5
97.7
95.4
94.9
94.6
93.1
90.4
88.7
87.9
86.5
81.3
80.4
79.3
78.8
74.9
72.2
71.3
70.9
70.2
69.2
65.2
64.6
63.9
61.9
61.0
55.3
0 30 60 90 120
Netherlands
Greece
Italy
Finland
France
Sweden
Denmark
Portugal
United Kingdom
Germany
Ireland
Belgium
Estonia
Croatia
Slovenia
Malta
Slovakia
Czech Republic
Latvia
Austria
Spain
Luxembourg
Lithuania
Hungary
Cyprus
Poland
Romania
Bulgaria
Petrol

Sources: EU, UBA, Weekly Oil Bulletib, own calculations
CO2 from cars comes at a high cost in the EU
► From 2021, full penalty fees will apply to
car manufacturers who do not reach their
specific target.
► If a car drives 200,000 km, a reduction by
1g/km corresponds to an emissions
reduction of 200 kg over the life of the
vehicle.
► Based on this assumption, the
manufacturer will pay a penalty of 475
euros per tonne of CO2.
► This cost is considerably higher than what
others have to pay.
+
A penalty of 95 euros will apply for each gram that
exceeds the target, for each vehicle sold. This corresponds
to approximately 475 euros per tonne of CO2
CO2-Prices
in euros pro tonne
475
367
145
80
30
13Carbon credits (as of
April 2018)
Carbon credits (target
for 2020)
Damage costs 2010
(UBA)
Damage costs 2030
(UBA)
Petrol Taxation (EU
average)
Emission standard for
cars

Source: IKA Aachen
The potential for further reduction exists but
is becoming harder to achieve
1 HCCI
2 Thermoelectric generator
3 Variable compression
4
Lightweight construction
(comprehensive)
5 Improved EGR
6
Direct injection w/ stratified
charge
7 Cylinder deactivation
8 Full hybrid
9 Micro-hybrid
10 Dual clutch transmissions
11 Homogeneous direct injection
12
Fully variable valve control
system
► Due to the technologies needed for boosting efficiency, new vehicles will cost approximately 2,700 euros more
in 2020.
► This expense will be offset, however, by savings resulting from lower fuel consumption. These savings are spread
across the entire life of the vehicle (17 years on average); so, the first customer will only enjoy part of this
benefit but will carry the full cost of the new technologies when purchasing the vehicle.
+
Research Pre-development Series development Series
Petrol engines (compact class)
CO2 reduction potential in %
Technology costs in €
1
2
46
8
9
10
11
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
0 1,000 2,000 3,000
Diesel (compact class)
CO2 reduction potential in %
Technology costs in €
2
3
4
5
7
8
9
10
120
5
10
15
20
25
30
0 1,000 2,000 3,000

Source: ev-sales.blogspot, 2019
New vehicles BEV/PHEV: 358,645 New vecicles BEV/PHEV: 72,636
New vehicles and top-selling models of the year 2018
Electric cars: hardly any global models
World 2018
2,018,247
Market
share
2.1%
Market
share
4.2%
Market
share
2.5%
Market
share
49.0%
New vecicles BEV/PHEV: 386,347 New vecicles BEV/PHEV: 1,102,375
1. Tesla 3
2. Toyota Prius PHV
3. Tesla X
4. Tesla S
5. Chevrolet Volt
1. Nissan Leaf
2. Renault Zoe
3. BMW i3
4. Mitsubishi Outlander
5. Volkswagen E Golf
1. Nissan Leaf
2. Volkswagen E Golf
3. BMW i3
4. Tesla X
5. Mitsubishi Outlander
1. BAIC EC Series
2. BYD Qin PHEV
3. JAC iEV S/E
4. BYD e5
5. Cherry EQ

Market share forecasts for electric vehicles
7%
30%
18%
36%
8% 9% 12%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Current forecasts for the global market share in the year 2025
Bloomberg
08/2017
PWC
01/2018
All
forecasts
predict a higher
market share in
Europe
Typically
BEV and FCEV
Make up for 55 to 60
Percent of the
electric vehicles.
74
FAST 2030
05/2018
BEV/FCV
only
These numbers include BEV, FCV and PHEV
Market
driven by the
demand side
KPMG 01/2017 Deloitte 02/2017
Fast
Learning
curve
Regulated
Marktet
Slow
Learning
curve

Source: EU Komission, Own calculations
Emissions from PHEV are
calculated on the basis of
the emissions in combustion
operations and of the
electric coverage of the car.
Firstly the PHEV participates
in the European testing cycle
(NEDC) in combustion
operations.
Then it runs the cycle driven
on electrical energy as long
as the battery lasts.
Depending on the such
determined coverage of the
car a pro rata deduction
from the emissions in pure
combustion operations is
applied.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77
Electric coverage in kilometers in NEDC testing cycle
Emissions calculations for PHEV
Allocatedemissionsincombustionoperationsinpercent
With a 25 km
Electric coverage
of the car
the deduction
of 50
per cent
is applied.
CO2-Regulation in EuropeTransportation sector

Source: TU Graz, 2018
CO2emissions of a middle class car with different drive versions
and speed
Speed makes the difference
0
50
100
150
200
250
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
CO2ing/km
v in km/h
HBEFA cycles with 0 % gradiant
Euro 6 diesel Plug-In-Hybrid Tank-to-Wheel
Euro 6 petrol Plug-In-Hybrid Well-to-Wheel

Source: IEA, Co2-Emissions from Fuel Combustion, 2018, own calculations
CO2 emissions of power production and electric cars
Electricity mix will decide on climate friendliness
CO2 emissions or power production
in gCO2/kWh
With a fuel consumption of 20 kWh/100km
an electric car emits … gCO2/km
627
544
726
433
299
447 464
8
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
125.4
108.8
145.2
86.6
59.8
89.4 92.8
1.6
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160

Source: Bloomberg, MBI
Lithium is highly
reactive and is
therefore traded
in the form of
lithium
carbonate.
Currently the
demand is
growing much
faster than
supply.
Only four plants
account for 80 per
cent of the
worldwide
production of
lithium.
Price indices of lithium turned down
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
31.01.2009
30.06.2009
30.11.2009
30.04.2010
30.09.2010
28.02.2011
31.07.2011
31.12.2011
31.05.2012
31.10.2012
31.03.2013
31.08.2013
31.01.2014
30.06.2014
30.11.2014
30.04.2015
30.09.2015
29.02.2016
31.07.2016
31.12.2016
31.05.2017
31.10.2017
31.03.2018
31.08.2018
31.01.2019
Asia Lithium Carbonate CIF Swa Europe Lithium Carbonate CIF S
North America Lithium Carbonat

Source: Bloomberg
Bargain prices for
cobalt have risen
since March 2015 by
a good 200 per cent
and went down since
May 2018.
Cobalt is mostly a by-
product of the nickel
and copper mining.
Falling prices of
nickel and copper
dampen cobalt
production.
Bargain prices for important raw materials
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
2/1/2010
7/1/2010
12/1/2010
5/1/2011
10/1/2011
3/1/2012
8/1/2012
1/1/2013
6/1/2013
11/1/2013
4/1/2014
9/1/2014
2/1/2015
7/1/2015
12/1/2015
5/1/2016
10/1/2016
3/1/2017
8/1/2017
1/1/2018
6/1/2018
11/1/2018
LME COBALT SPOT ($) LME NICKEL SPOT ($) LME COPPER SPOT ($)

Rechargeable batteries Ceramics Glass Ceramics
Lubricants Glass Ceramics Polymers
Metallpowders Air processing Non-chargeable Batteries
80
Quellen: Deutsche Rohstoffagentur (DERA), 2016, 2017 (Ursprungsdaten), eigene Darstellung
Status quo versus Forecast 2025
Use of Lithium according to applications
66.6
7.1
6.4
4.2
2.7
2.5 3.1
1.4
0
0.1
4.9
2025 (DERA)
37.4
13.412
7.9
5.1
4.5
5
2.5
0.4 0
10.2
2015 (Roskill)

81
Quellen: Cobalt Development Institute (CDI), 2016; Deutsche Rohstoffagentur (DERA), 2016 (Ursprungsdaten), eigene Darstellung
Li-Ionen-Batteries
90%
Superalloys
7%
Synfuels
2%
Medical
Implants
1%
Other
0%
2035
Batteries
42%
Superalloys
(Ni, Co, Fe, Cr)
16%
other alloys
10%
Hard metall
7%
Catalysts
7%
Magnets
5%
Other
13%
2014
Usage in 2014 (CDI) and prognosis to 2035 (DERA)
Use of Cobalt

Source: UBS Evidence Lab, Mai 2017
33.9%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40%
Lithium
Cobalt
Graphit
Nickel
per year… per cent of the
reserves would be eaten up.
the demand for raw materials
would be … per cent higher.
In a world with 100 per cent of electric cars of present design …
New battery types are required
2,511%
1,928%
264%
118%
0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000
Lithium
Cobalt
Graphit
Nickel

Source: Bloomberg Intelligence, 2017
57
86
177
10
18
46
36
35
49
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Q1 2017 Q4 2018 Q4 2021
China USA Other countries
Cell production in GWh, consisting and developing
Battery cells: China propels capacity building

The EU has waived the world’s most stringent CO2 emission levels for cars. In 2021,
the limit values will be one-third lower than those of the USA.
CO2 emissions from road traffic are priced higher by the EU than emissions from
other sources.
The “low-hanging fruits” have already been picked – and it will become more
expensive in the future.
The manufacturers of large vehicles, in particular, have to gradually focus on the
switch to electric powertrains. But: Today, the market run-up for electric cars and
plug-in hybrids is slowing down. And no one knows how the market for these
vehicles will develop in the future.
Summary: regulation on the road
Regulation road
Political framework Other sectors OutlookMegatrends Traffic today Efficiency roadCO2-emissions road
84

85
1 Megatrends
4 Other sectors
5 Outlook
Agenda
CO2-Regulation in EuropeOther sectors
Power Industry Households

86
In the EU, the emissions from public heat and power generation are approximately
15 per cent less than the levels in 1990.
› More efficient power plants and a changing power mix help to cover the
overconsumption.
Power generation underlies European emissions trading. Emissions trading consists
of two components:
› A prescribed cap on emission volumes that will continuously decrease up to the
year 2020.
› A tool for distributing the burden (trade). The market for carbon credits ensures
that the EU will meet the prescribed emission volumes at low costs.
CO2 in other sectors: power generation
Other sectors
Power Industry HouseholdsPolitical framework Transportation sector OutlookMegatrends

CO2EQ- emissions of public heat and power generation, 1990 = 100
The reduction can be credited to Eastern
Europe in particular
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
EU 28 EU 15 Eastern European Acces Countries
97,3
71,0
61,4
108,5
75,9
Other sectors

-344.1400.5
593.5
Source: Odyssee Database July 2018
in Terawatt hours (TWh) of primary energy use; changes from 2000 – 2016
Power generation – consumption of fossil
primary energy declining
Overall
impact
Power Mix
-649.3
Electricity
consumption
More efficient
fossil power
plants
 Electricity consumption in
Europe is persistently
increasing.
 Yet fewer fossil primary
energy carriers are being
consumed.
 Power generation is not an
end in itself; it facilitates
production and
consumption in the
industrial sector and in
homes.
+
88Other sectors

Sources: EU, DIW
Volume of carbon credits in the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS), in millions of
tonnes
Cap: A government-prescribed reduction
► Specific: The emissions target of -21 per cent is sure to be met on account of the decreasing cap.
► Apportioned: The initial auctioning of 20 per cent is expected to increase to 60 per cent by 2020.
► Flexible: It is not stipulated which trade participant will bring about the reduction.
+
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
2005 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2030
Ziel
2030
3rd trade
period cap
2nd trade
period cap
1st trade
period cap Discussed
reduction
rate after
2020
-2,2%
-21%
Reduction rate by 2020
-1,74%
89Other sectors

Trade: Emissions trading ensures an efficient
distribution of the reduction burden
► In the example above, Plant 1 renders the entire reduction but has three-fourths of the costs reimbursed through
emissions trading. The example shows that both plants save thousands of euros compared to a restriction on
emissions.
► The specific distribution of the reduction burden arises from the carbon credit price and the particular reduction
costs.
► Participants with high abatement costs help to finance other participants’ reduction efforts.
+
Exhaust
up to
now,
in tonnes
Permiss-
ible
exhaust
in the
future,
in tonnes
Reduc-
tion
costs
per
tonne
Total
costs
5,000 4,500 20 10,000
5,000 4,500 50 25,000
10,000 9,000 35,000 Gesamt
Exhaust up
to now,
in tonnes
Permiss-
ible
exhaust
in the
future,
in tonnes
Carbon
credits
received,
in tonnes
Reduc-
tion
costs per
tonne
Achieved
reduction,
in tonnes
Cost for the
reduction
Trade,
in
tonnes
Trade
in euros
Total
costs by
trade
5,000
Insg.
9,000
4,500 20 1,000 20,000 5,000
5,000 4,500 50 0 0 15,000
10,000 9,000 9,000 1,000 20,000 500 15,000 20,000
15,000500
Plant 1
Plant 2
Case 1:
Emission restrictions
Case 2:
Emissions trading: Carbon credit price at 30 euros per tonne
90Other sectors

-1
-3
18
54427
357 356
303
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
1990 2000 2010 2015
 Power generation: CO2 emissions are still on the rise, in spite of the increasing share of renewable energies.
 The reason: Renewable energies are, in particular, replacing natural gas and coal-fired power plants; nuclear energy use is
also declining. Lignite is filling the resulting base load gap.
 The subsidisation of renewable energies has resulted in an increased volatility of supply. This frequently results in surplus
power that has to be exported outside the country at a cheap rate.
Source: Arbeitsgemeinschaft Energiebilanzen 2018, EEA 2018 (v21)
Power generation and trade in GermanyPower mix
The subsidisation of renewable energies leads to an increasing
export of electricity
Germany’s energy transition: Unexpected results
+
GHG-Emissions in Mio. t CO2
Balance of trade in TWH
91
31,1 25,7 23,0 22.5
27.7
29.4
22.2
25.6
24.8
18.5
14.1
3,6 6,6
16,6
33.3
5.5 4.9 5.6 4.3
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1990 2000 2010 2017
Others Renewable Natural gas
Hard coal Nuclear energy Lignite
Other sectors

The CO2 emissions of the industrial sector have declined by one-fourth in the last 20
years.
› Increased efficiency: Emissions in the industrial sector decreased by one-third per euro of
added value.
The industrial sector is governed by various regulations:
› Electricity consumption is subject to emissions trading and a high rate of taxation. In the
USA, industrial energy costs only about half as much as the EU average.
› The EU Ecodesign Directive sets maximum tolerances for the energy consumption of
consumer products such as lamps and household appliances. Products that do not meet the
standard have to be removed from the market. The most noticeable target: light bulbs.
CO2 in other sectors: industry
Other sectors
92

Improved efficiency: One-third fewer
emissions per euro of added value since
1995
kg CO2/Euro2005
CO2 emissions in the industrial sector are
declining: -25% since 1995
in millions of tonnes of CO2
► Regulation: The largest share of CO2 emissions caused by industrial activities is subject to emissions trading.
► Increased efficiency: The emissions per unit of gross value have decreased by a good third since 1995.
► Deindustrialisation: The movement of industrial activities out of many European countries has resulted in a decrease of
CO2 emissions in the EU.
+
CO2-Intensität
CO2-Intensität
inkl. Strom
Other sectors
Industry in the EU 28: Decreased emissions,
greatly improved efficiency
93
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Through power
consumption*
Other
Steel
Chemicals
Food
Paper
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
1995 2005 2015
-45%
-47%

* For information only
Sources: Eurostat 2018, BDI
In cent pro kWh for companies with a consumption of 20 to 70 gigawatt hours
Industrial energy prices in the second half of
2017: Much less expensive in the USA
 Industrial energy prices in
Europe are much higher than
those of international
competitors.
 The biggest difference is in
comparison to the USA, where
a kWh costs approximately
45 per cent less than in Europe.
 The highest prices apply in the
UK and Italy. But for totally
different reasons.
 Recoverable taxes – such as VAT
– are viewed as transitory items
for the company.
+
94
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
UK
Italy
Belgium
Portugal
Germany
Spain
Austria
Poland
France
EU 28
Czech Republik
France
Netherlands
Sweden
China*
India*
USA*
Product price
Non-recoverable tax
Recoverable tax
Other sectors

Household CO2 emissions have decreased by 13 per cent since 1990.
› In the same reporting period, the number of households and the living space per person
increased substantially.
The key to future emission reductions is in the area of heating.
› Heating constitutes 70 per cent of a household’s total energy consumption.
› In spite of the EU Ecodesign Directive, consumption has greatly increased through the use of
electric appliances, since households contain an increasing number of them.
The installation of new heating units results in very low CO2
abatement costs, but it rarely pays off for home owners without
subsidisation.
CO2 in other sectors: Households
Other sectors
95

Energy savings
Households: Decreasing CO2 emissions
despite higher demands in living spaces
CO2-Emissions
in millions of tonnes
 Nearly half of household emissions fall under emissions trading.
 The trend is leaning towards more households and larger apartments, which increases emissions.
 Besides emissions trading, households are impacted by electricity taxes and energy consumption regulations for
buildings.
+
Changes in household energy consumption
between 2000 and 2016
in terawatt hours (TWh)
Direct CO2 emissions from households (heating, hot water)
Emissions from household electricity consumption
Overall impact
Other
-1.203,8
Larger living spaces
More electric appliances
per household
Climatic faktor
More households
+503,7
Other sectors
96
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
-23%
-26%
-71.7
-58.0
+196.6
+377.4
+516.2
+70.7

Significant progress per square metre of
living space
1990 = 100
The heating system is the key to lower
emissions
in terawatt hours (TWh)
Energy consumption:
the potential lies in the heating market
► Heating systems consume about 70 per cent of the final energy in households.
► Advancements in heating efficiency are almost entirely eaten up by increased living space.
► Electric appliances only play a minor role; however, due to the increasing number of appliances per household,
overall energy consumption has risen by 45 per cent since 1990.
+
97
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
1990 2000 2015
Heating Hot water
Cooking Electric appliances
60
70
80
90
100
110
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Energy consumption for light per m2
Energy consumption for heating per m2
Other sectors

98
1 Megatrends
4 Other sectors
5 Outlook
Agenda
Outlook
Limits of the system Alternatives Core theses

Limit values for cars: Only indirect influence
on actual CO2 emissions
► Today, Europe regulates a car’s emissions potential in grams per kilometre.
► However, the actual target is the avoidance of CO2 emissions in tonnes.
► There is no direct connection between emissions potential and actual emissions. The real impact is determined
by the user.
► Result: Today’s regulation is not precise and does not correspond to the regulation in other sectors.
+
Outlook
Limits of the system Alternatives Core thesesPolitical framework Transportation sector Other sectorsMegatrends
!
Assumptions
 Under the New European Driving
Cycle (NEDC), a better
transmission will save 4 g CO2/km.
 The transmission costs an
additional 200 euros.
 In Europe, an average car travels
approximately 200,000 kilometres
during its lifetime.
CO2 savings, in tonnes:
4 g/km * 200,000 km = 800,000 g = 0.8 tonnes
Investment costs, in euros per tonne:
200 € / 0.8 tonnes = 250 € per tonne
99

* Extrapolation from published reports ** Calculated based on the average value of the respective line.
Sources: AGFW, IKA Institut für Kraftfahrzeuge Aachen, EU
Expensive CO2 avoidance leads to excess
burden
Problem: CO2 avoidance in cars is
already comparatively expensive
CO2 avoidance in cars is expensive and would
be cheaper to obtain in other sectors
 The reduction costs differ greatly from sector to sector.
 The avoidance of car emissions by means of improved technologies is relatively expensive, and these costs will continue to
increase.
 Sector-based reduction targets lead to high additional costs in the economy.
 In the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS), permissible emissions are offset by carbon credits. One credit allows the emission of a
tonne of CO2.
 The trade with carbon credits ensures that the emission volume stipulated by the EU is generated where the reductions are least
expensive
+
0 100 200 300 400
Manuf. figures 2014*
IKA Aachen 2012
IKA Aachen (2016)
IKA Aachen (2021)
Hydroelectric power
Wind power
Carb. credit price today
Target price for 2020
Cars
Electricity
In € per tonne
5,338
150
500
1,250
8,688
750
Cars
Carbon credits
Hydroelectri…
Wind power
Cars
Carbon credits
Assumption: CO2 emissions in Europe are to be reduced by 25 million
tonnes. Comparison of the resulting costs today and in 2020 in millions of
euros**
Heute
2020
100
CO2 market
Outlook

Source: Daimler
Absolute car emissions
in millions of tonnes of CO2
Relative car emissions
in g CO2/km
Based on model calculation. With today’s regulation, an emissions reduction of 30 per cent is
achievable between 2005 and 2030. This corresponds to the EU target for non-ETS sectors
Efficient new vehicles impact the vehicle fleet
 The average consumption of the existing fleet is only gradually reacting to the more efficient new vehicles. That is why a difference can be seen between the
emissions of new vehicles and the entire fleet.
 The gap will close once most of the older vehicles with higher emissions are taken off the roads.
 Based on a conservative estimate, the ongoing replacement of old vehicles will result in car traffic emissions in Europe decreasing by approximately 30 per cent
by 2030, compared to the year 2005.
 Until 2014, the fleet was dominated by vehicles built before 2005. Several million of these vehicles will still be on the road in 2030.
 The advancements of recent years will long continue to have an impact on the vehicle fleet. Even if new vehicles were to hardly show improvements after 2021,
the fleet emissions would continue to decrease.
 In regard to cars, the EU target can be achieved with the existing regulation
+
90
110
130
150
170
190
2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025 2029
New vehicles
Entire fleet
40gr
22gr
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 2025 2029
Vehicles built before 2005
Vehicles built since 2005
-32%
101
Outlook

Sources: EU, UN
WLTP: Depiction of a car ride,
based on worldwide averages
NEDC: Introduced in 1996 to calculate
exhaust emissions
WLTP: A new test requires new limit values
► A test cycle should facilitate legally compliant comparability.
► There are various cycles today. The EU and China use the NEDC, while the USA and Japan have their own tests.
► The figures on car emissions depend heavily on the test cycle; they are not simply convertible.
► Trials show that higher emissions levels are identified in the WLTP than in the NEDC. With the introduction of the WLTP, the
regulation of limit values will have to start completely afresh.
► But: Even WLTP is “only” a test. It facilitates comparability under standardised conditions; hence, it represents an
approximation of global driving behaviour, yet does not determine a value that is achievable in all contexts.
+
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800
The WLTP is
intended to apply
globally. Manufacturers’
test costs are expected
to be reduced through
the implementation
of the WLTP.
Speed in km/h
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800
Low Middle High Extra high
Time in seconds
102
Outlook

103
Limits of standardization in RDE consumption measuring
RDE Tests: wide dispersion even with maximum standardization
1 Expected dispersion of the results: 8 gCO2/kmMeasurement technology
• Standardised PEMS-systems per vehicle (homogeneous within the measuring organisation)
• Calibration of the PEMS-system by aligning with test bed measurments
• But: the achievable measurement inaccuracy using the up-to-date technique lies around ± 2,5 per
cent.
Ein einzelner Wert kann nur einen Mittelwert
darstellen.
2 Environment & driver Expected dispersion of the results: 10 gCO2/km
• Defined environmental conditions (moderate temperatures, favourable weather, gentle wind at
maximum)
• Trained driver, who refer to the shift point display and create reproducable results
• But: Slight variations, for example in wind and driving style lead to visible deviations.
3 Route Expected dispersion of the results: 12 gCO2/km
4 Vehicle
• Trips on a reference line in the same time and driving direction
• No fixed time slots but adaption to comparable traffic volume on the reference line
• But: density of traffic, average speed and shares of start/stop are not reproducable.
• Comparable vehicle, as far as the status of running-in, technical upgrades, inflation pressure etc. is
concerned
• Comparable use of vehicles: additional load, electrical consumers, window opening or driving mode
• But: reactions to environmental conditions ( e.g. temperature) affect the consumption.
Expected dispersion of the results: 6 gCO2/km
Outlook

The system of regulating limit values levels exhibits structural problems.
Inaccurate: The greatest disadvantage is the lack of precision, since the regulations
affect potential emissions rather than actual emissions.
Expensive: Technology-driven savings in road traffic represent one of the most
expensive possibilities for reducing CO2 emissions.
Long-dated: It will still take years before the full impact of already-achieved
improvements is reflected in statistics.
An acute continuation of the regulation of limit values does not currently appear
very promising. Alternatives to the current system must be sought.
Summary: Limits of the system
Outlook
Limits of the system Alternatives Core thesesPollitical framework Transportation sector Other sectorsMegatrends
104

 Vehicle limit values only regulate potential emissions.
 The actual emissions are determined just as much by drivers as by the infrastructure.
To reduce emissions, drivers and the government need to be involved in the process
Improved regulation: Emissions standards for vehicles
fall too short
+
Integrated approach: Include all areas in the regulation process
 Optimisation of combustion engine
 Alternative fuels
 Lightweight construction
 Switching to electric powertrains
 Use of digitalisation (avoidance of
parking-related traffic)
 Route
(how much?)
 Driving style
(how?)
 Vehicle selection
(with what?)
 Infrastructure conditions
 Construction site management
 Promotion of transmissions
and fuels that produce fewer emissions
 Replacement of existing vehicles
Total emissions in tonnes =
Consumption in litres * Emissions factor in kg CO2/litre * Mileage
DriverAutomotive industry Government
Outlook
105

 An integrated approach prevents rebound effects and can considerably increase savings.
 Various instruments are needed in order to enhance all potential savings.
Source: ACEA
Estimate based on road freight traffic
Integrated approach: Future regulation must cover all
areas
+
Kraftstoffe
Vehicle-related measures
Vehicle Trailer Tyres Alternative fuels
Vehicle operation
Operation Infrastructure Fleet replacement
 Efficient
engines
 Aero-
dynamics
 Assisted
driving
systems
 Permissible
size (more
transport
volume)
 Aerodynamics
 Lightweight
construction
 Assisted
driving
systems
 Low-
resistance
tyres
 Air pressure
controls
 Super
Singles
 Second-generation biofuels
 Synthetic fuels
 Natural gas (LNG)
 Driver
training
 Route
planning
 Volume
utilisation
 Improved
infrastructure
(road closures,
detours)
 Telematics
 Congestion
control
 Replacement of
Euro 0–III vehicles
(approx. 5% additional
fleet replacement)
CO2-emissions
CO2-
Emissionen
-6% -2,5% -13%+ + = -21,5%
106
Fuels
Outlook

One stop towards an integrated approach would be the inclusion of road traffic in emissions
trading. Fuel consumption can be precisely calculated in emissions. Heavy trucks cannot be
integrated in the existing system of limit values; this is not a problem in emissions trading. The
question remains as to who should make the carbon credits available
Emissions trading in road traffic: Is that
possible?
Pros
Cons
Upstream – Tankstellenbetreiber
The corresponding carbon credits must be purchased for
every litre sold.
 1L Benzin = 2,3 kg CO2
 1L Diesel = 2,6 kg CO2
Easy to implement technically
Little demand from the well-financed
Actual emissions are limited
It only indirectly addresses those who are actually
generating the emissions. The connection to the
driver is the price signal, as in the case of a fuel tax.
+
+
–
+
Midstream – Autohersteller
When a new vehicle is sold, a volume of carbon credits
must be purchased that corresponds to the car’s
expected emissions in its lifetime.
 In the case of 130 g CO2/km und 200.000 km: carbon
credits for 26 tonnes
Little demand from the well-financed
Inaccurate: The purchased amount represents
a theoretical volume.
The manufacturer only determines the
potential emissions, not the actual emissions.
The manufacturer only has an indirect
influence over actual CO2 emissions.
+
–
–
–
107Outlook

The inclusion of road traffic in emissions trading offers certain
benefits
Emissions trading: A useful supplement
 Simple: The necessary amount of carbon credits
per tank filling is easy to calculate. The required
purchase can be paid for with the fuel.
 Inexpensive for the driver: Based on the EU’s
targeted price of 30 euros per carbon credit in the
year 2020, a litre of petrol would cost 7 euro cent
more.
 Inexpensive for society: The abatement costs of
road traffic are far above 30 euros per tonne.
Emissions are avoided where it is cheaper to do
so.
 But: Since the transportation sector would be
purchasing so many carbon credits, other sectors
would have to substantially step up their
reduction efforts. Good judgment will be
necessary in order to avoid an overload in the
other sectors.
 Thus: Emissions trading is a useful supplement to
today’s limit values.
+ETS Filling Station
Main Street 111, 12345 New Town
Station no. : 000000000xyz
Station tax no. : 13/456/xyzxyz
Company tax no. : 01 234 56789
Receipt no.1234/005/00001 03.03.2021 9:22
Card payment
*Super 65,13 EUR A #*
* Pump 03 43,45 l 1,499 EUR/l #*
*EU-ETS carbon credits 3,04 EUR #* C*
* 43,45l x 2,33 kg CO2/l = 101,24 kg CO2
* x 30,00 EUR/Credit for 1.000 kg CO2
Total 68,17 EUR
Type Net VAT Gross
A: 19,00% 54,73 10,40 65,13
C: 0,00% 3,04 0,00 3,04
Thank you for your visit. Have a safe trip!
108Outlook

The inclusion of road traffic in emissions trading serves as a useful supplement to the
prevailing system of limit values.
› Emissions trading would increase the precision of the regulation, since it factors in
the influence of the driver on the emissions that are produced.
› Emissions trading would also apply to freight transport – an area that is difficult to
incorporate in the current system of limit values.
› Emissions trading would lead to lower reduction costs for the overall economy,
since road traffic would enter the carbon credit market as more of a buyer.
But: Oil prices continue to create pressure to innovate, but there are several factors
that speak in favour of setting a new limit value for the long term.
Summary: Alternatives
Ausblick
Grenzen des Systems Alternativen KernthesenPolitischer Rahmen Verkehrssektor Andere SektorenMegatrends
109

The core theses: Brief overview
110
Climate protection
1. Europe’s share of the
worldwide CO2 emissions is low
and continuously decreasing.
(100)
2. No solution without China:
Europe’s reduction of emissions is
being eaten up by growth in
emerging economies. (103)
3. Motor vehicles account for
approximately one-seventh of the
CO2 emissions in the EU. Their
share in transportation emissions
is declining. (106)
CO2 regulation for motor vehicles
4. New vehicles in Europe have become considerably more efficient in
recent years. (108)
6. Europe has once again tightened the reins on the CO2 limit values for
motor vehicles and is requiring a further reduction of CO2 within an
even shorter span of time. (112)
5. CO2 legislation in Europe shows the most stringent target values in
an international comparison. (110)
8. Vehicle fleet limit values under 95 grams cannot be achieved with
conventional engine types, and the market success of alternative
engine types is still uncertain. (116)
7. Even without a further tightening of the CO2 limit values after 2020,
the motor vehicle industry is still on track to meet the EU’s climate
policy targets by 2030. (114)
9. EU environmental legislation is not coherent and, for a long time,
had other priorities than CO2 reduction. This had various
consequences, including an increase of CO2 emissions. (119)
10. Today’s CO2 laws regulate only new vehicles, completely
disregarding the remaining vehicle fleet. (122)
11. An effective reduction of CO2 emissions cannot address new
vehicles alone but must take a much broader approach. (124)
Balance between climate
protection and industrial
policy
12. The EU is targeting a
20% industry share of GDP
for the year 2020. This goal
is presently a long way
away, since industrial and
climate protection policy
are not yet aligned. (126)
13. The CO2 abatement costs
vary greatly between sectors
and are most pronounced in
the automotive sector.
(129)
14. Emissions trading as the
most economically efficient
form of CO2 regulation can
easily be applied to road
traffic. (131)

Europe’s share of the worldwide CO2 emissions is
low and continuously decreasing.
Core theses: Climate protection
1
Outlook
Core thesesAlternativesPolitical framework Transportation sector Other sectorsMegatrends Limits of the system

Emissions from fuel use, in millions of tonnes
CO2 emissions: Europe’s share sharply decreasing
10.3% 14.8%
28.1%
23.4%
23.2%
15.5%
19.6% 16.1% 9.9%
46.7% 45.9% 46.5%
1990 2002 2015
China USA EU Rest of the world
20.502 23.884
► Compared to the year 1990,
the absolute CO2 emissions
are decreasing in the EU only.
The decline in the year 2015
amounts to 823 Million tons.
► In Asia in particular, emissions
are rapidly increasing except
for Japan.
► The impact of European
regulations on global CO2
emissions continues to
decline.
+32.294
Outlook

Emissions from fuel use* – Changes between 1990 and 2015, in
millions of tonnes
Reduction in Europe, strong increase in Asia
While China shows an increase of
approximately 331 per cent
during the years 1990–2015, the
EU shows a decrease of 21,5 per
cent.
China still postet a growth in 2014
by a good 110 million tons.
Whereas in 2015 emissions
stagnated in China.
India increased it’s emissions in
2014 by nearly 170 Millionen
tons, that is more than China.
Also in 2015 emissions continued
to grow in India.
+
-823,0
+ 1.536,6
+ 6.975,4
EU India China
* Entspricht der Kategorie 1A nach UNFCCC Klassifikation
Outlook

No solution without China: Europe’s reduction of
emissions is being eaten up by growth in emerging
economies.
2
Outlook

Sources: EEA, 2018 (v21); IEA, CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion – 2017
EU passenger cars: Relevant, yet not crucial
CO2 emissions, in millions of tonnes
Relevant: Europe’s total
passenger car traffic emitted a
good 526 million tonnes of CO2
in 2015; that is an increase
compared with 2014.
Crucial? In just three weeks
China emits through its use of
fossil fuels more CO2 compared
to the car traffic in the EU – a fast
growing trend.
Dynamic: Between the years
2014 and 2015 the plus in China
amounted to around 9,1 per cent
or 60 millions of tonnes. this
corresponds to about 40 per cent
of the emissions on German
roads.
+
450
554 538
63
372
698
121
375
523
EU
Passenger car
traffic
China
Road traffic
China
CO2 emissions in 21 days
Outlook

Motor vehicles account for approximately one-seventh
of the CO2 emissions in the EU. Their share in
transportation emissions is declining.
3
Outlook

Co2 regulation in europe english v4.2

Co2 regulation in europe english v4.2

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