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Climate Resilient Development
1. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Aulia Erlangga/CIFOR-ICRAF CC BY-NC-ND 2.0; Yuichi Ishida/UNDP Timor-Leste CC BY-NY 2.0; Stéphane Bellerose/UNDP in Mauritius and Seychelles CC BY-NC 2.0
Climate Change: Resilience, Transformation, and Equity
Climate Resilient Development
Prof. Hans-Otto Pörtner
Co-Chair IPCC Working Group II
Asia Outreach Event, Bangkok – 28 April 2023
Figure animation: Frode Degvold & Siri Eriksen
SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Synthesis
2. AR 6
Synthesis
Report
Where we are …..
Current trends are
incompatible with a
sustainable, equitable world.
More than a century of burning fossil fuels as
well as unsustainable energy and land use has
led to global warming of 1.1°C, resulting in more
frequent and more intense extreme weather
events.
These have caused dangerous impacts on
nature and people in every region of the world.
Where are we headed and what should we do?
SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Synthesis
3. IPCC AR6 SYR Figure SPM.6
Alternative futures
SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Synthesis
With every increment of warming, the risks,
impacts and related losses and damages escalate.
When these risks combine with other adverse
events they cascade across sectors and regions
and become increasingly difficult to manage.
• Reduced climate risks – adaptation and mitigation
• Reduced greenhouse gas emissions – mitigation
• Enhanced biodiversity
• Achieved the Sustainable Development Goals
4. IPCC AR6 SYR Figure SPM.6
The future we want
• Reduced climate risks – adaptation and mitigation
• Reduced greenhouse gas emissions – mitigation
• Enhanced biodiversity
• Achieved the Sustainable Development Goals
SIXTH ASSESMENT REPORT
Synthesis
This is Climate Resilient Development.
5. IPCC AR6 SYR Figure SPM.6, photos: GovernmentZA_DIRCO_CC BY-ND 2.0; Marlon del Aguila/CIFOR CC BY-NC-ND 2.0
Climate Resilient Development
The solutions framework:
• Is considered across government and all of civil society
• Involves everyone – forming partnerships
SIXTH ASSESMENT REPORT
Synthesis
6. IPCC AR6 SYR Figure SPM.6, photos: thisisengineering-raeng / Unsplash; Aris Sanjaya/CIFOR CC BY-NC-ND 2.0
Climate Resilient Development
The solutions framework:
• Draws on wide-ranging knowledge (scientific, Indigenous,
local, practical)
SIXTH ASSESMENT REPORT
Synthesis
7. IPCC AR6 SYR Figure SPM.6, photos: Yuichi Ishida/UNDP Timor-Leste CC BY-NY 2.0; Axel Fassio/CIFOR CC BY-NC-ND 2.0
Climate Resilient Development
The solutions framework:
• Conserves and restores ecosystems
• Effective and equitable conservation of approximately
30-50% of land, freshwater systems and oceans
SIXTH ASSESMENT REPORT
Synthesis
8. IPCC AR6 SYR Figure SPM.6, photos: Mika Baumeister / Unsplash; Aulia Erlangga/CIFOR CC BY-NC-ND 2.0
Climate Resilient Development
The solutions framework:
• Involves marginalized groups
• Prioritises equity and justice
• Reconciles different interests, values and world views
SIXTH ASSESMENT REPORT
Synthesis
9. IPCC AR6 SYR Figure SPM.6, photos: Kumerra Gemechu/CIFOR CC BY-NC-ND 2.0, Thisisengineering Raeng / Unsplash
Climate Resilient Development
The solutions framework:
• Requires scaled-up investment and
international cooperation
SIXTH ASSESMENT REPORT
Synthesis
10. IPCC AR6 SYR Figure SPM.6
Every decision
matters!
Action is urgent!
There is a rapidly
narrowing window of
opportunity to enable
climate resilient
development for a
liveable future.
…limiting global warming
close to 1.5°C limits
impacts and keeps
adaptation options open.
SIXTH ASSESMENT REPORT
Synthesis
Climate Resilient Development
11. IPCC AR6 SYR Figure SPM.6
Every decision
matters!
There is a rapidly
narrowing window of
opportunity to enable
climate resilient
development for a
liveable future.
…limiting global warming
close to 1.5°C limits
impacts and keeps
adaptation options open.
SIXTH ASSESMENT REPORT
Synthesis
Climate Resilient Development
12. IPCC AR6 SYR Figure SPM.6
Enablers
SIXTH ASSESMENT REPORT
Synthesis
We are late in implementing
enablers ….
opportunities missed
Climate Resilient Development
14. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Climate resilient development
is already challenging at
current global warming levels.
The prospects will become
limited further if warming
exceeds 1.5°C and may not be
possible if warming exceeds
2°C.
Synthesis
15. SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
SIXTH ASSESSMENT REPORT
Figure animation: Frode Degvold and Siri Eriksen
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Thank you
Editor's Notes
The choices and actions implemented in this decade will have impacts now and for thousands of years. So it is our decision what our planet earth and human life are going to look like.
If we look at this figure, we see a spectrum of futures – from a world with low resilience and high risk to one with high resilience and low risk.
This high-resilience, low-risk world has reduced climate risks through adaptation, reduced GHG emissions through mitigation and enhanced biodiversity. These measures together support sustainable development, for example no poverty, zero hunger, good health and well-being, and access to clean water and sanitation.
This concept is Climate Resilient Development.
Climate Resilient Development has to be considered across government and all of civil society.
It should involve everyone, round the table: governments, citizens, communities, educational institutions, the media, investors and businesses – forming partnerships.
Scientific, Indigenous and local knowledge and practical knowhow come together to provide more relevant effective actions.
Ecosystem stewardship is key – a healthy planet is fundamental to Climate Resilient Development.
Effective and equitable conservation of approximately 30-50% of land, freshwater systems and oceans can help ensure a healthy planet.
Involving traditionally marginalized groups – including women, young people, Indigenous Peoples, local communities and ethnic minorities – improves the prospects for effective action.
It is critical to prioritize equity and justice in decision-making and investment.
Different interests, values and world views can be reconciled if everyone works together.
Scaled up investment and international cooperation are also important.
Starting today, every action, every choice and every decision matters
AR6 report hightlights the urgent need to limit global warming as close to 1.5°C as possible to keep adaptation and ecosystem-based mitigation option.
The longer emissions reductions are delayed, the fewer effective adaptation options are available, which is why we are talking about a narrowing window of opportunity to guarantee a climate resilient and liveable future for all.
Worldwide action to achieve climate resilient and sustainable development is more urgent than previously assessed.
Our report clearly identifies conditions that enable individual and collective actions towards climate resilient development, such as inclusive governance, ecosystem stewardship and policies and infrastructure that support behavioural change. e.g. reliable and well developed low carbon public transport systems
However, in our report we also identify obstacles and constrains that currently prevent a transformation towards climate resilient development. Poverty, inequity and injustice as well as lack of finance and siloed responses are probably the best know ones. But there are many more that urgently need to be resolved. Because:
Time for action is now. The 6th Assessment Report of the IPCC offers solutions.
