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The Arab Spring
and Climate Change

   ANUPAM CHAKRAVARTY
        CCTP-817
The Arab Spring




Source: The Economist. http://wacsfschools.files.wordpress.com/2011/07/arab-spring.gif
Climate and Security Correlations

Center for American Progress Series
    Anne-Marie Slaughter (Princeton University)
    Troy Sternberg (Oxford University)
    Sarah Johnstone and Jeffrey Mazo (International Institute for
     Strategic Studies)
    Francesco Femia and Caitlin Werrell (Center for Climate and
     Security)
    Michael Werz and Max Hoffman (Center for American
     Progress)
    David Michel and Mona Yacoubian (Stimson Center)
New York Times Columnist Thomas Friedman
Climate and Security Correlations



             POPULAR
            UPRISINGS


ECONOMI    DEMOGRAPHI      POLITICAL
    C           C
          CLIMATE CHANGE
Economics: Climate & Scarcity

  SUPPLY SIDE
Severe Drought
Conditions in
 China(World’s
 Largest Wheat
 Producer)
Drought, Heat
 Waves & Fires in
 Russia & Ukraine
Cold in Canada
Excessive Rain in
 Australia
Economics: Climate & Scarcity

                        DEMAND SIDE
Egypt:
    Bread provides one-third of the caloric intake
    38% of income is spent on food


“The doubling of global wheat prices — from
 $157/metric ton in June 2010 to $326/metric ton in
 February 2011 — thus significantly impacted the
 country’s food supply and availability.” (Sternberg)
Economics: Climate & Scarcity




Source: http://necsi.edu/research/social/food_crises.pdf
Demographics: Climate & Population

Drought and desertification in the
 Sahel undermined agricultural and
 pastoral livelihoods
    Syria: 30% workforce employed in the
     agricultural sector (2002)  15%
     workforce employed in the agricultural
     sector (2010)
Displaces rural communities; causes
 major urban migration
    Syria: 50,000 families migrated from rural
     areas to cities in 2010.
    Tunisia: Rural population declines in 2010
     while overall population increases.
Demographics: Climate & Population


Further stressing water availability
    Yemen: Clashes over illegal wells
Exacerbating urban unemployment
    “Angry, poor, ‘bored’ young men”
Stressing city infrastructure & services
Brings diverse tribal, ethnic and religious groups
 together in cities
Political: Climate & Governance Crises


International dependence on oil
    Dictatorships consolidating wealth in oil revenues
    Expanding Qatari and Saudi Arabian geopolitical influence
Scarcity strains regionally shared water resources
    Libya: 93% arid; the aquifers it is draining for Qaddafi’s
     water project are shared by Egypt, Chad, and Sudan
    Syria: On-going water disputes with Turkey
Corrupt and inefficient regimes are exposed as
 incapable of managing stress
How Does Climate Change Influence Conflict?


“Globalization of Hazard”
    Increases global-local linkages
        Localized climate events in China
        Global market trends and “agflation”
        Local food shortages in Egypt
“Threat Multiplier” Effect
    Exposes fragile political systems to more, multifaceted
     weaknesses
“Eroding the Social Contract”
Opportunities for Foreign Policy


Encourage regional cooperation & coordination on
 sustainability projects
    Build trust for fledgling & established governments
    Improve resource management infrastructure and shares best
     practices
    Create shared value
Engage with at-risk groups: human-interest
 diplomacy
    Provide opportunities for those most affected by demographic
     shifts and limited access to service.
Works Cited

Werell, Caitlin E., Francesco Femia, and Anne-Marie Slaughter, eds. "The Arab
 Spring and Climate Change." Center for American Progress (2013). 28 Feb.
 2013. <http://www.americanprogress.org/wp-
 content/uploads/2013/02/ClimateChangeArabSpring.pdf>

Friedman, Thomas. “The Scary Hidden Stressor.” The New York Times (2013). 2
   Mar. 2013. <http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/03/opinion/sunday/friedman-
   the-scary-hidden-stressor.html>

Lagi, Marco, Karla Z. Bertrand, and Yaneer Bar-Yam. "The Food Crises and
  Political Instability in North Africa and the Middle East.” New England
  Complex Systems Institute, 28 Sept. 2011.
  <http://necsi.edu/research/social/food_crises.pdf>.

Aziza, Tareq. “On the Oil that Burned the Arab Spring.” Al-Akhbar English. 16
  Nov. 2012. <http://english.al-akhbar.com/node/13824>

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The Arab Spring and Climate Change

  • 1. The Arab Spring and Climate Change ANUPAM CHAKRAVARTY CCTP-817
  • 2. The Arab Spring Source: The Economist. http://wacsfschools.files.wordpress.com/2011/07/arab-spring.gif
  • 3. Climate and Security Correlations Center for American Progress Series  Anne-Marie Slaughter (Princeton University)  Troy Sternberg (Oxford University)  Sarah Johnstone and Jeffrey Mazo (International Institute for Strategic Studies)  Francesco Femia and Caitlin Werrell (Center for Climate and Security)  Michael Werz and Max Hoffman (Center for American Progress)  David Michel and Mona Yacoubian (Stimson Center) New York Times Columnist Thomas Friedman
  • 4. Climate and Security Correlations POPULAR UPRISINGS ECONOMI DEMOGRAPHI POLITICAL C C CLIMATE CHANGE
  • 5. Economics: Climate & Scarcity SUPPLY SIDE Severe Drought Conditions in China(World’s Largest Wheat Producer) Drought, Heat Waves & Fires in Russia & Ukraine Cold in Canada Excessive Rain in Australia
  • 6. Economics: Climate & Scarcity DEMAND SIDE Egypt:  Bread provides one-third of the caloric intake  38% of income is spent on food “The doubling of global wheat prices — from $157/metric ton in June 2010 to $326/metric ton in February 2011 — thus significantly impacted the country’s food supply and availability.” (Sternberg)
  • 7. Economics: Climate & Scarcity Source: http://necsi.edu/research/social/food_crises.pdf
  • 8. Demographics: Climate & Population Drought and desertification in the Sahel undermined agricultural and pastoral livelihoods  Syria: 30% workforce employed in the agricultural sector (2002)  15% workforce employed in the agricultural sector (2010) Displaces rural communities; causes major urban migration  Syria: 50,000 families migrated from rural areas to cities in 2010.  Tunisia: Rural population declines in 2010 while overall population increases.
  • 9. Demographics: Climate & Population Further stressing water availability  Yemen: Clashes over illegal wells Exacerbating urban unemployment  “Angry, poor, ‘bored’ young men” Stressing city infrastructure & services Brings diverse tribal, ethnic and religious groups together in cities
  • 10. Political: Climate & Governance Crises International dependence on oil  Dictatorships consolidating wealth in oil revenues  Expanding Qatari and Saudi Arabian geopolitical influence Scarcity strains regionally shared water resources  Libya: 93% arid; the aquifers it is draining for Qaddafi’s water project are shared by Egypt, Chad, and Sudan  Syria: On-going water disputes with Turkey Corrupt and inefficient regimes are exposed as incapable of managing stress
  • 11. How Does Climate Change Influence Conflict? “Globalization of Hazard”  Increases global-local linkages  Localized climate events in China  Global market trends and “agflation”  Local food shortages in Egypt “Threat Multiplier” Effect  Exposes fragile political systems to more, multifaceted weaknesses “Eroding the Social Contract”
  • 12. Opportunities for Foreign Policy Encourage regional cooperation & coordination on sustainability projects  Build trust for fledgling & established governments  Improve resource management infrastructure and shares best practices  Create shared value Engage with at-risk groups: human-interest diplomacy  Provide opportunities for those most affected by demographic shifts and limited access to service.
  • 13. Works Cited Werell, Caitlin E., Francesco Femia, and Anne-Marie Slaughter, eds. "The Arab Spring and Climate Change." Center for American Progress (2013). 28 Feb. 2013. <http://www.americanprogress.org/wp- content/uploads/2013/02/ClimateChangeArabSpring.pdf> Friedman, Thomas. “The Scary Hidden Stressor.” The New York Times (2013). 2 Mar. 2013. <http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/03/opinion/sunday/friedman- the-scary-hidden-stressor.html> Lagi, Marco, Karla Z. Bertrand, and Yaneer Bar-Yam. "The Food Crises and Political Instability in North Africa and the Middle East.” New England Complex Systems Institute, 28 Sept. 2011. <http://necsi.edu/research/social/food_crises.pdf>. Aziza, Tareq. “On the Oil that Burned the Arab Spring.” Al-Akhbar English. 16 Nov. 2012. <http://english.al-akhbar.com/node/13824>