Andrew Hollis Presentation to Tauranga Te Papa Rotary, October 2017

1. CLIMATE CHANGE
IS THERE ANYTHING TO WORRY ABOUT?
SPOILER ALERT - NO

2. RECENT HEADLINES
The Earth just reached a CO2 level not seen in 3
million years
More than 150,000 people could die as a result of
climate change each year in Europe by the end of the
century, shocking new research has found.
The number of deaths caused by extreme weather
events will increase 50-fold and two in three people
on the continent will be affected by disasters, the
study – that serves as a stark warning of the deadly
impact of global warming – found.
http://www.independent.co.uk/environment/deaths
-year-climate-change-global-warming-extreme-
weather-events-2100-150000-a7877461.html

3. THE CLIMATE CHANGE HYPOTHESIS
• CO2 INCREASE DRIVES EXTREME WEATHER
• CO2 INCREASE CAUSES INCREASED GLOBAL TEMPERATURE
• CO2 INCREASE WILL CAUSE SEA LEVELS TO RISE
IF ANY PART OF A HYPOTHESIS FAILS THE HYPOTHESIS MUST BE REJECTED
ITS HOW SCIENCE WORKS

4. CO2 – VILLAIN OR HERO?
• CO2 IS A NON TOXIC INVISIBLE GAS
• GLOBAL CO2 LEVELS HAVE BEEN AS LOW AS 280PPM AND AS HIGH AS 6000PPM
• EACH INWARD BREATH CONTAINS 400PPM CO2
• EACH OUTWARD BREATH CONTAINS 40000PPM CO2
• (NO ONE DIED FROM THE BREATH GIVEN DURING CPR)
• PLANTS EVOLVED DURING THE DEVONIAN WHEN CO2 WAS 4000PPM, AT 280PPM PLANTS ARE
EFFECTIVELY STARVING
• THOUGHT: WHAT IS THE OPTIMUM CO2 LEVEL

5. MELTING GLACIERS AND THE POLAR ICE CAPS
• WE ARE IN A GEOLOGICAL TIME PERIOD CALLED THE HOLOCENE.
• THIS IS AN INTERGLACIAL, WHICH MEANS A TIME IN BETWEEN ICE AGES
• GLACIATION EVENTS ARE CYCLIC AND ARE CAUSED BY “WOBBLES” IN EARTHS
ORBIT AND ARE CALLED THE MILANKOVITCH CYCLES
• ARGUABLY MOST “STRANGE” ACTIVITIES LIKE TEMPERATURE AND SEALEVEL ARE
COMPLETELY RELATED TO THESE CYCLES

8. RECENT UPS AND DOWNS

10. WHICH CAME FIRST?

11. HYPOTHESIS FAIL NUMBER 1
• CO2 LAGS TEMPERATURE INCREASES IN EVERY INSTANCE FOR THE PAST
400,000 YEARS
• THEREFORE CO2 CANNOT BE SHOWN TO INCREASE GLOBAL TEMPERATURE AND
IS LIKELY CAUSED FROM A WARMING OCEAN AND SIMILAR EVENTS

13. HYPOTHESIS FAIL NUMBER 2
• THERE IS NO LINK BETWEEN TEMPERATURE AND CO2 CONCENTRATION IN THE
ATMOSPHERE
• CO2 HAS BEEN 7000PPM IN THE CAMBRIAN WHERE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE WAS
25OC
• CO2 HAS BEEN HIGHER WHEN TEMPERATURE IS HIGH AND LOW
• CO2 HAS BEEN LOWER WHEN TEMPERATURE IS HIGH AND LOW
• IN ALL INSTANCES WHERE CO2 HAS BEEN HIGHER THERE HAS BEEN NO RUNAWAY
GREENHOUSE EFFECT. WHY IS TODAY DIFFERENT?

14. SEALEVEL RISE – TIME TO SELL BEACHFRONT?

15. HYPOTHESIS FAIL NUMBER 3
• SEALEVEL HAS BEEN RISING FOR THE PAST 7000+ YEARS AS WE LEAVE A
GLACIATION EVENT AND WARM INTO THE LATEST INTERGLACIAL
• SEALEVEL RISE HAS IN THE MAIN BEEN LINEAR ACROSS THE GLOBE, SOME AREA
ARE SINKING SOME ARE RISING QUICKLY BUT THESE CAN LOCALLY BE EXPLAINED
WITHOUT MELTING ICE SHEETS OR CATASTROPHIC TEMPERATURE INCREASES
• THE LIKELY RISE IN SEA LEVEL OVER THE NEXT 100 YEARS IS LESS THAN 30CM.
WE OUGHT TO BE ABLE TO REACT TO THIS LEVEL OF “DESTRUCTION”

16. EXTREME WEATHER?

17. CYCLONES

19. HYPOTHESIS FAIL NUMBER 4
• NO INCREASE IN ANY EXTREME EVENT SHOWN OVER THE 20TH OR 21ST
CENTURIES
• NO INCREASE IN HEATWAVES, COLD WAVES, STORM FREQUENCY OR INTENSITY
• NO INCREASE IN WILDFIRES, DROUGHTS, FLOODS
• EVERY EXTREME EVENT WHEN COMPARED YEAR ON YEAR IS WITHIN NORMAL
RATES AND INTENSITY

20. ARE TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY INCREASING
• ACTUALLY, THEY PROBABLY ARE
• BUT NO EVIDENCE THAT MAN MADE CO2 IS THE MAIN DRIVING FORCE
• THERE IS EVIDENCE THAT THE SUN PLAYS A SIGNIFICANT ROLE
• THE TOTAL GLOBAL TEMPERATURE INCREASE IS 0.8OC SINCE 1860
• THOUGHT: WHAT IS THE OPTIMUM GLOBAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURE?
• SO WHY DO THE GRAPHS SHOW A CATASTROPHIC FUTURE?

21. ADJUSTMENTS TO RAW DATA

22. EVIDENCE OF DATA TAMPERING

23. DATA ADJUSTMENTS - EVEN IN NZ

24. HYPOTHESIS FAIL NUMBER 5
• AFTER ACCOUNTING FOR ADUSTMENTS, CENTURY LENGTH TEMPERATURE
INCREASE IS LIKELY TO BE AT BEST ONLY HALF OF WHAT IS REPORTED WITH
SOME EVIDENCE THAT ALL RECENT WARMING IS DUE ONLY TO ADJUSTMENT
AND NOT ACTUAL FIGURES
• THIS WAS DONE TO REMOVE THE PAUSE AND EXAGGERATE THE TEMPERATURE
INCREASES IN THE PAST DECADE
• IT WAS ALSO DONE TO REDUCE THE IMPACT OF THE 1930S HEATWAVE ON THE
GRAPHS
• IE THE WARMEST DECADE ON RECORD (THE ACTUAL WARMEST DECADE WAS
THE 1930S)

25. THE MODELS

26. HYPOTHESIS FAIL NUMBER 6
• CLIMATE MODELS ARE WORSE THAN USELESS
• NO PREDICTIVE CAPABILITY WHATSOEVER…
• PREDICTIVE ABILITY IS THE MAIN REASON HYPOTHESES “UPGRADE” TO SCIENTIFIC
THEORIES EG:
• EVOLUTIONARY THEORY
• THEORY OF GRAVITY
• GERM THEORY
• THEORY OF RELATIVITY
• AND WHY THERE IS UNLIKELY TO BE A THEORY OF CO2 DRIVEN CLIMATE CHANGE
• THEY WILL CONTINUE TO FAIL BECAUSE THEY DELIBERATELY OMIT TWO KEY
VARIABLES:
• WATER VAPOUR

27. FINAL THOUGHTS
• THERE IS NO EVIDENCE TO SUGGEST WE EVEN NEED TO PLAN FOR CLIMATE CHANGE … BEYOND OUR NORMAL ADAPTION TO
CHANGES IN LOCAL CLIMATE
• IT IS EVIDENT THAT AN INCREASE IN CO2 IS A GOOD THING
• TEMPERATURE INCREASE OF 2 DEGREES OVER THE NEXT 100 YEARS IS NOTHING TO BE CONCERNED BY.
EVIDENCE SUGGESTS COLD WEATHER KILLS MORE HUMANS THAN WARM.
• THERE IS A GENERAL DECREASE IN BOTH OCCURRENCE AND SEVERITY OF ALL EXTREME WEATHER ACROSS THE GLOBE FOR THE PAST
20 YEARS
• A HYPOTHESIS THAT FAILS ITS TEST FOR THE NULL HYPOTHESIS MUST BE DISCARDED.
• IT IS CLEAR THAT THE CLIMATE CHANGE HYPOTHESIS IS FLAWED AT BEST AND WRONG (MOST LIKELY) AT WORST
• WHY HAVE WE SPENT BETWEEN 1 AND 2 TRILLION DOLLARS? YES TRILLION. ONE ESTIMATE PUTS THE TOTAL SPEND OVER NEXT 50
YEARS TO BE IN THE ORDER OF 100 TRILLION DOLLARS
• WHAT IS THE OPTIMUM GLOBAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURE?
• HOW MUCH CO2 IS GOOD? (HINT: ASK A PLANT)
• WHY HAVE THE SUN AND WATER VAPOUR BEEN IGNORED IN THE MODELS?
STOP WORRYING AND SPEND CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH MONEY ON MORE IMPORTANT ISSUES SUCH AS ENERGY GENERATION TO
COVER THE UPCOMING FLEET OF ELECTRIC VEHICLES

28. QUESTIONS
HOPEFULLY THERE IS TIME