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CLIM: Transition Workshop - The Relationship Between Extreme Events and Human Health in a Changing Climate - Jesse Bell, May 15, 2018
This presentation discusses the relationship between extreme weather events and human health in a changing climate. It summarizes research analyzing heat wave events and their relationship to mortality rates in the United States. The presentation finds that the number of heat waves has increased in recent decades, especially in the Southeast, and that the duration and intensity of events has also risen. It explores using climate and health data to better understand how changes in extreme temperatures relate to changes in mortality rates. The goal is to publish results and provide information to public health organizations to help prepare for health impacts of climate change.
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CLIM: Transition Workshop - The Relationship Between Extreme Events and Human Health in a Changing Climate - Jesse Bell, May 15, 2018
- 1. Click to editMaster title style Click to edit Master subtitle style 1 The Relationship Between Extreme Events and Human Health in a Changing Climate Jesse E. Bell, Ph.D. North Carolina Institute for Climate Studies (NCICS) Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites – NC (CICS-NC) North Carolina State University Asheville, NC USA SAMSI 2018
- 2. 2 • Heat events- Combining daily and annual mortality data to estimate heatwave risk • Participants: Brian Reich (NCSU), Veronica Berrocal (UM), Richard Smith (UNC), Jesse Bell (NCSU/CICS-NC) • Student: Munir Winkel (NCSU) Overview
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- 5. 5 Climate Change andHealth
- 6. 6 Climate Change andHealth
- 7. 7 Billion-Dollar Disasters areIncreasing
- 8. 8 Total Cost =$306 Billion; Deaths = 362
- 9. 9 Increase in ExtremeTemperatures Bell, J.E., et al. 2017. Changes in extreme events and the potential impacts on human health. Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association
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- 11. 11 Long History BetweenClimate and Health • Hippocrates wrote about epidemics in 400 B.C.E. and noted the change in weather • 1814 Dr. James Tilton, Surgeon General of the Army, directed all hospital surgeons to keep weather records
- 12. 12 Executive Summary • Climatechange threatens human health and well-being in the United States. The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) Climate and Health Assessment has been developed to enhance understanding and inform decisions about this growing threat. This scientific assessment, called for under the President’s Climate Action Plan, is a major report of the sustained National Climate Assessment (NCA) process. The report responds to the 1990 Congressional mandate to assist the Nation in understanding, assessing, predicting, and responding to human- induced and natural processes of global change. The agencies of the USGCRP identified human health impacts as a high-priority topic for scientific assessment. • The purpose of this assessment is to provide a comprehensive, evidence-based, and, where possible, quantitative estimation of observed and projected climate change related health impacts in the United States. The USGCRP Climate and Health Assessment has been developed to inform public health officials, urban and disaster response planners, decision makers, and other stakeholders within and outside of government who are interested in better understanding the risks climate change presents to human health. Climate change is a significant threat to the health of the American people.
- 13. 13 Figure from CDC’sClimate and Health Program
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- 15. 15 Costs of ExtremeEvents
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- 17. 17 Climate and EnvironmentalData Pathway State and Local Health Departments Health Studies
- 18. 18 Heat Events • Algorithmdeveloped to scan through product to find extreme temperature events. – Find the 98th percentile of the time series. – Find any days that meet or exceed that percentile for a period of three days or more. • For each event, algorithm determines severity, comparing to its period of record (1895-2017). • Can assess multiple regions. – NCEI Climate division, state, NCA, CONUS.
- 19. 19 Number of HeatEvents • 98th Percentile. • NCEI Climate Division. • Decadal, 1900s-2010s. • TMAX top left. • TMIN bottom left. • 1930s Dust Bowl Prevalent. • Increase in events in 21st Century, especially in the southeastern parts of the US.
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- 22. 22 Duration of TMAXHeat Events
- 23. 23 Duration of TMINHeat Events
- 24. 24 Intensity of TMAXHeat Events
- 25. 25 Intensity of TMINHeat Events
- 26. 26 Health Data • NationalVital Statistic System • Mortality Data – 1960-2015 – County-level – Yearly – Age, race, sex – All cause and individual – Below 9 deaths is suppressed
- 27. 27 Health Data • NationalVital Statistic System • Mortality Data – 1975-2004 – County level – Daily – Age, sex, race, ICD code – Below population of 100k is suppressed
- 28. 28 Health Data • 2004-Present •Working to get the most recent data • Requires an additional approval process • Regulations have changed • Potentially daily, but could be monthly
- 29. 29 Moving Forward • Combiningmortality statistics with heat analysis • Obtain more recent mortality data for United States • Determine if there is any noticeable change in mortality with changes in frequency, intensity, or duration of heat events • Publish results
- 30. 30 Possible Paths Forward •Determine if tangible results can be extracted from lower resolution by using higher resolution data • Project analysis forward using climate models • Use methodology to look at other extreme events types for better estimate of associated mortality – Drought! • Disseminate this results back to CDC and NOAA
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- 32. Click to editMaster title style Click to edit Master subtitle style 32 Thank you! Jesse E. Bell, PhD jesse@cicsnc.org
- 33. 33 Pathway Between Droughtand Health Drought Drivers: Decrease in precipitation Increases in temperature Decrease in runoff Decrease in snowpack Exposure Pathways: Dust and dust storms Wildfires Decrease in water quality and quantity More Intense Heat Waves Changes in vector habitat and range Loss of agriculture and food security Health Outcomes: Infectious disease Mental health consequences Injuries Respiratory issues Hunger/Famine Heat illness Gastrointestinal Illness Environmental& Institutional Context: Agricultural management practices Preparedness of health departments Local environmental conditions Power, transportation, communication, and healthcare infrastructure Social& Behavioral Context: Social determinants of health Occupation Rural population Limited english proficiency Dependence on caregivers and medication Recreational activities Water supply
- 34. 34 “Floods kill people,but droughts destroy civilizations.” ~U.S. Government Official at a Drought Meeting
- 35. 35 Climate Change andHealth Examples of Climate Impacts on Human Health
- 36. 36 • Climate Changeis a Significant Health Threat • Extreme Events Cause a Variety of Health Outcomes – Direct, delayed, etc. • Costs are Increasing • Drought and Health • Information Should Go Both Ways • Climate Change is Already Causing Health Outcomes • Many Opportunities for Research Conclusions
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Editor's Notes
- #6 Figure 3: Projected changes in annual average temperature (top) and precipitation (bottom) for 2021–2050 (left) and 2041–2070 (right) with respect to the average for 1971–2000 for the RCP6.0 scenario. The RCP6.0 pathway projects an average global temperature increase of 5.2°F in 2100 over the 1901–1960 global average temperature (the RCPs are described in more detail in Appendix 1: Technical Support Document). Temperature increases in the United States for this scenario (top panels) are in the 2°F to 3°F range for 2021 to 2050 and 2°F to 4°F for 2041 to 2070. This means that the increase in temperature projected in the United States over the next 50 years under this scenario would be larger than the 1°F to 2°F increase in temperature that has already been observed over the previous century. Precipitation is projected to decrease in the Southwest and increase in the Northeast (bottom panels). These projected changes are statistically significant (95% confidence) in small portions of the Northeast, as indicated by the hatching. (Figure source: adapted from Sun et al. 2015)
- #7 Figure 1: Major U.S. national and regional climate trends. Shaded areas are the U.S. regions defined in the 2014 NCA.
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- #36 The diagram shows specific examples of how climate change can affect human health, now and in the future. These effects could occur at local, regional, or national scales. The examples listed in the first column are those described in each underlying chapter’s exposure pathway diagram. Moving from left to right along one health impact row, the three middle columns show how climate drivers affect an individual’s or a community’s exposure to a health threat and the resulting change in health outcome. The overall climate impact is summarized in the final gray column. For a more comprehensive look at how climate change affects health, and to see the environmental, institutional, social, and behavioral factors that play an interactive role in determining health outcomes, see the exposure pathway diagrams in chapters 2–8 in the full report.