1. CFA Institute Research Challenge
Atlanta, GA - Americas Competition
Canisius College
Buffalo, NY
Matthew Coad
Carl Larsson
Stephen Miller
Kevin Monheim
Ryan Zimmer
2. Company Overview
Industry &
Competitive
Positioning
Financial Analysis Valuation Risk Analysis Conclusion
Executive Summary
Main Features
4th largest Self-Storage Company in the U.S.
92% of Revenue is derived from Rental Income
Strong Management Platform
Over 500 Properties in Portfolio
SSS $96.00
SSS $93.95
1
Market Profile
Closing Price (04/02/2015) $93.95
52-Week High / Low $97.76 / $72.88
Average Volume (3M) 247,279
Diluted Shares Out. 34,217,717
Market Cap $3.18B
Dividend Yield 3.20%
Beta 0.87
EV / Revenue 14.5x
EV / EBITDA 23.3x
P / FFO Share 23.5x
Institutional Holdings 96.85%
Insider Holdings 2.60%
3. Company Overview
Industry &
Competitive
Positioning
Financial Analysis Valuation Risk Analysis Conclusion
Competitive Advantage
Revenue
Management
Program
Web-based
Marketing
Call Center
2
Location and Convenience:
24/7 Security System; keyboard
controlled access
Web Marketing:
70% of sales driven by internet contact
with customers
Call Center:
31,000 Rental Inquiries a Month
Revenue Management System:
Uses 10-year historical information
5. Company Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Risk Analysis Conclusion
Industry &
Competitive
Positioning
Industry Overview
LEGEND
0 No threat to Sovran
1 Insignificant threat to Sovran
2 Low threat to Sovran
3 Moderate threat to Sovran
4 Significant threat to Sovran
5 High Threat to Sovran
Porter’s Five Forces
Bargaining Power of Customers – MODERATE
Intensity of Competitive Rivalry – MODERATE
Bargaining Power of Suppliers – LOW
Threat of Substitutes – LOW
Barriers to Entry – MODERATE
4
6. Company Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Risk Analysis Conclusion
Industry &
Competitive
Positioning
Competitive Postioning SSS CUBE EXR PSA
Market Cap $3.12B $3.82B $7.71B $34.03B
3rd Party Management
Store Locator on Homepage
Interactive Facility Location Map
List of Alternative Storage Locations
Van or Truck Rental Options
Climate-Controlled Units
Vehicle Storage
Packing Supplies
Promotions for New Customers
24-Hour Call Center
Industry Overview
Economies of Scale vs Smaller Competitors
Increasing Ancillary Revenue Segment
Diverse Service Offerings
5
7. Company Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Risk Analysis Conclusion
Industry &
Competitive
Positioning
Demand Drivers
14.5%
15.0%
15.5%
16.0%
16.5%
17.0%
320,000
322,000
324,000
326,000
328,000
330,000
332,000
334,000
336,000
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Aging and Growing
U.S. Population
Population 65 Years and Above
U.S. Economic Growth
Improving Job Market
Encouraging Demographic Trends
(InThousands)(InThousands)
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
Job Openings vs Job Separations
Total Job Openings Total Job Separations
30.0%
31.0%
32.0%
33.0%
34.0%
35.0%
36.0%
37.0%
38.0%
39.0%
40.0%
U.S Rental Rates
6
8. Company Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Risk Analysis Conclusion
Industry &
Competitive
Positioning
Acquisitions
UPREIT Structure
Increasing Cost per Acquired Sq. Ft.
Increasing Acquisition Expenditures
7
9. Company Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Risk Analysis Conclusion
Industry &
Competitive
Positioning
Revenue Analysis
Occupancy Rates
8
18. Company Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Risk Analysis Conclusion
Industry &
Competitive
Positioning
Main Risks
RR1 = Regulatory Risk – REIT
Classification
OR2 = Operational Risks – Loss Credit
Rating
MR1 = Market Risk – Rise in Interest
Rates
ER1 = Economic Risks – Easing of Loan
Requirements
17
19. Company Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Risk Analysis Conclusion
Industry &
Competitive
Positioning
18
Concentration Risk (MR3)
Time Oil Price / Barrel
# Oil Rigs in
Texas
Sep-14 $94.51 905
Apr-15 $51.91 455
% Change -45.1% -49.7%
46
20-30
10-19
< 10
Number of Facilities
20. Company Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Risk Analysis Conclusion
Industry &
Competitive
Positioning
18
Corporate Governance (OR1)
0
1
2
3
4
5
Disclosure
and
Transparency
Executive
Management
Board of
Directors
Rights and
Obligations
of
Shareholders
Takeover
Defense
KEY
1 Insignificant threat to Shareholders
2 Low threat to Shareholders
3 Moderate threat to Shareholders
4 Significant threat to Shareholders
5 High Threat to ShareholdersRating Methodology
Disclosure and Transparency – INSIGNIFICANT
Executive Management – INSIGNIFICANT
Board of Directors – SIGNIFICANT
Takeover Defense – LOW
Rights and Obligations of Shareholders – LOW
21. Company Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Risk Analysis Conclusion
Industry &
Competitive
Positioning
Potential Loss of BBB- Credit Rating (OR2)
Increase in Cost of Debt due to downgrade to Junk Bond Status is
roughly 175 basis points
Mitigations:
Maintain 70E – 30D Financing Structure
Management Guidance
Description
Principal Due
(thousands)
Coupon
Rate
Increase in Coupon Rate if
Credit Rate Downgraded
2016 Term Note $150,000 6.38% 8.13%
2020 Term Note $100,000 5.54% 7.29%
2024 Term Note $175,000 4.53% 6.27%
19
22. Company Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Risk Analysis Conclusion
Industry &
Competitive
Positioning
1 Year Correlation
RMZ andSSS 0.97
RMZ and10 Yr -0.93
SSS and 10 Yr -0.94
Interest Rates and Cap Rates Spread (MR1)
20
3.6%
`
23. Company Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Risk Analysis Conclusion
Industry &
Competitive
Positioning
Conclusion
Current Price Upside
SSS $93.95 SSS $96.00
Target Price
2.2%
Merits
• Experienced
Management
• Technology
Platforms
• Macroeconomic
Tailwinds
• Improving
Financial Position
• Limited Supply
HOLD
Concerns
• Maturing
Occupancy Rates
• Increasing Price
of Acquisitions
• Concentration
Risk
• Interest Rate
Uncertainty
21
35. Company Overview
Industry &
Competitive
Positioning
Financial Analysis Valuation Risk Analysis Conclusion
Business Description
1982
Founded
1985
Establishment of Uncle
Bob’s Self Storage
1995
IPO on NYSE as a REIT
2014
Sovran Acquires
500th Property
1999
Flex-a-Space System
Introduced
2011
Introduced Solar Panel
to Self-Storage Units
Appendix
36. Company Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Risk Analysis Conclusion
Industry &
Competitive
Positioning
Lack of Independence on Board
Board Member Career Background
Principal of Stampeed Capital LLC. Provides Real Estate
Consulting Support
Arthur L. Havener
Mark G. Barberio Principal of Markapital, LLC, an M&A Consulting Firm
Independent Directors Appointed on January 21, 2015
Board Member Independent Tenure (Yrs)
Robert J. Atta No 20
Kenneth F Myszka No 20
Anthony P. Gammie (1)
Yes 20
Charles E. Lannon (1)
Yes 20
Stephen R. Rusmisel Yes 3
(1) Limited Independence
Appendix
37. Company Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Risk Analysis Conclusion
Industry &
Competitive
Positioning
Competitive Positioning Appendix
Competiting Positioning SSS EXR CUBE PSA
Market Capitalization $3.12B $7.71B $3.82B $34.03B
Number of Properties 521 1088 595 2,250
Number of Square Feet 35,500,000 80,400,000 40,420,000 146,000,000
Occupancy Rates 88.50% 90.50% 89.10% 93.50%
Number of Acquisitions 33 51 52 44
Third Party Management Parnerships 23 260 140 42
Number of Joint Ventures 55 271 34 187
Revenue $326.1M $657.1M $370.7M $2283.7M
NOI $168.0M $404.1M $202.1M $1601.0M
As of December 31, 2014
38. Conclusion
Management
Executive Title Career with Sovran
Robert J. Atta, 72 Director, Chairman and Co-Founder 33 yrs.
David L. Rogers, 58 CEO and Co-Founder 33 yrs.
Kenneth F. Myszka, 65 President, COO and Co-Founder 33 yrs.
Andrew J. Gregoire, 46 CFO and Secretary 17 yrs.
Edward F. Killeen, 50 Executive VP: Real Estate Mgmt. 18 yrs.
Paul T. Powell, 58 Executive VP: Real Estate Inv. 18 yrs.
Appendix
Experienced Management Team averaging more than 25
years experience
Successful navigation through multiple economic cycles
39. Conclusion
Insider Holdings
Appendix
Name Position
Market Value
(02/10/2015)
% of
Shares
Robert J. Attea 231,029 21,788,345$ 0.68%
Kenneth F. Myszka 223,476 21,076,022$ 0.66%
David L. Rogers 149,676 14,115,944$ 0.46%
Charles E. Lannon 114,239 10,773,880$ 0.34%
Andrew J. Gregoire 42,061 3,966,773$ 0.12%
Paul T. Powell 40,984 3,865,201$ 0.12%
Edward F. Killeen 34,632 3,266,144$ 0.10%
Anthony P. Gammie 18,953 1,787,457$ 0.06%
Stephen R. Rusmisel 2,027 191,166$ 0.01%
Total 857,077 80,830,932$ 2.55%
40. Conclusion
UPREIT Structure Appendix
Transaction can be completed on a tax differed basis – receives units
in the operating partnership
Enables the property owner to convert an interest in one or more
specific properties into an interest in a larger and more balanced
portfolio of properties held by the UPREIT
49. Conclusion
Treasury Stock Method Diluted Shares Out.
Appendix
Diluted Shares Outstanding - Treasury Stock Method
Assumptions
Current Share Price (04/02/2015) $93.95
Basic Shares Outstanding (As of 10/31/2014 via Q3 2014 10-Q) 34,105,955
In-the-Money Options (As of 12/31/2014)
2005 Award and Option Plan 82,606
2009 Outside Directors' Stock Option and Award Plan 29,000
1995 Outside Directors' Stock Option Plan 4,000
Stock Based Compensation Stock Options Oustanding 115,606
Weighted Average Exercise Price
2005 Award and Option Plan $45.75
2009 Outside Directors' Stock Option and Award Plan $56.31
1995 Outside Directors' Stock Option Plan $49.65
Stock Based Compensation Stock Options Oustanding $48.54
Options Proceeds
2005 Award and Option Plan $3,779,225
2009 Outside Directors' Stock Option and Award Plan $1,632,990
1995 Outside Directors' Stock Option Plan $198,600
Stock Based Compensation Stock Options Oustanding $5,611,515
Total Options Proceeds $11,222,330
Shares Repurchased from Options Proceeds 119,450
Shares from In-the-Money Options 231,212
Less: Shares Repurchased from Options Proceeds (119,450)
Net New shares from Options 111,762
Plus: Basic Shares Outstanding 34,105,955
Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding 34,217,717
50. Conclusion
Economic Value Added
Economic Value Added
EVA=NOI-Opportunity Cost; Opportunity Cost=WACC*Capital; ROI=NOI/Capital
FYE 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
NOI $121.20 $115.77 $126.28 $153.48 $183.16
WACC (1)
8.42% 8.42% 8.42% 8.42% 8.42%
Total Capital 1,129.70 1,131.06 1,291.71 1,428.69 1,504.49
Opportunity Cost $95.12 $95.24 $108.76 $120.30 $126.68
EVA $26.08 $20.53 $17.51 $33.18 $56.48
ROI 10.73% 10.24% 9.78% 10.74% 12.17%
Total Capital
Total IBD 492.70 499.48 636.17 699.96 633.78
Total SE 637.00 631.58 655.54 728.73 870.71
Total $1,129.7 $1,131.1 $1,291.7 $1,428.7 $1,504.5
(1) Derived from first two years of SSS's two-tired WACC calculation
Appendix
51. Conclusion
State 2011 2012 2013 2014
Texas 112 114 117 133
Florida 59 67 68 72
New York 28 28 34 35
Georgia 24 29 30 30
New Jersey 22 22 21 29
Ohio 23 24 23 23
Alabama 25 24 22 22
North Carolina 18 20 25 20
Virginia 19 20 19 19
Louisiana 14 15 16 17
Mississippi 14 15 15 15
Missouri 8 8 8 15
Illinois 0 10 10 13
Massachusetts 12 12 13 13
Arizona 9 10 10 10
Pennsylvania 7 7 7 9
Connecticut 5 5 8 8
South Carolina 8 8 8 8
Colorado 4 4 5 5
Tennessee 4 4 4 5
Maine 2 2 2 4
New Hampshire 4 4 4 4
Rhode Island 4 4 4 4
Maryland 4 3 3 3
Kentucky 2 2 2 2
Michigan 4 0 0 0
Totals 435 461 478 518
Properties Appendix
State 2014
Texas 16
New Jersey 8
Missouri 7
Florida 4
Illinois 3
Pennsylvania 2
Maine 2
Louisiana 1
Tennessee 1
New York 1
Totals
(1)
45
(1) Divested 5 North Carolina
Poperties in 2014
53. Conclusion
Debt Schedule and SWAPS
2020 Term Note Fixed by Following SWAP Agreements
Amount Effective Date Expiration Date Fixed Rate
125,000,000$ Sept. - 1 - 2011 Aug. - 1 -2018 2.3700%
100,000,000$ Dec - 30 - 2011 Dec. 29 - 2017 1.6125%
100,000,000$ Sept. - 4 - 2013 Sept. - 4 - 2018 1.3710%
125,000,000$ Dec. 29 - 2017 Nov. - 29 - 2019 3.9680%
100,000,000$ Aug. - 1 -2018 Jun. - 1 - 2020 4.1930%
Appendix
Description Principal Due (USD)
Coupon/
Base
Rate Floating Rate Maturity Secured Other
2016 Term Note 150,000,000$ 6.38% - Apr -13-2016 No
Interest Rate Increases to 8.13%
if Credit Rating Downgraded.
*2020 Term Note 325,000,000$ - LIBOR + 1.4 Jun - 4 - 2020 No Facility Fee of 0.20
2021 Term Note 100,000,000$ 5.54% - Aug - 5- 2021 No
Interest Rate Increases to 7.29%
if Credit Rating Downgraded
2024 Term Note 175,000,000$ 4.53% - Apr - 8 - 2014 No
Interest Rate Increases to
6.268% if Credit Rating
Downgraded
Mortgage Notes 2,160,000$ 5.99% - May - 1 - 2026 Yes
Revolving Line of
Credit
$49,000 Outstanding as of
Q4 $251,000,000 Available
on Line - LIBOR + 1.3 Dec - 10 - 2019 No Facility Fee of 0.20
*NOTE: 2020 termnot fixed via Interst Rate SWAPS
54. Conclusion
Revenue Growth Breakdown
Appendix
The majority of revenue growth will be fueled by acquisitions
Average annual occupancy rates will peak at 91%
Ancillary Revenue will account for 10.6% of revenue in 2019.
Revenue Growth Breakdown 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E
Increase in Occupancy Rates 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.3%
Increase in Sales per Square Ft. 6.0% 5.4% 3.8% 1.5% 1.0%
Increase in Total Square Ft. 5.8% 6.0% 4.5% 3.5% 3.0%
Rental Revenue Growth 12.8% 11.9% 8.8% 5.3% 4.3%
Ancilliary Revenue Growth 20.0% 15.0% 15.0% 12.5% 12.5%
Total Revenue Growth 13.3% 12.2% 9.3% 6.0% 5.1%
55. Conclusion
Long-Term Risk Free Rate
Appendix
The risk free rate and intrinsic value are negatively correlated
As a main factor in both the Cost of Equity and Cost of Debt, the
model is sensitive to changes in the Long-Term Risk Free Rate
Changes in this rate do not affect our HOLD recommendation
UST 10 Year
normalized
Percentage
change in rate
Weighted
Average Intrinsic
Precentage
change in value Recommendation
Return
from Stock
2.50% 28.57% $ 99.92 -5.36% Hold 6.35%
3.00% 14.29% $ 97.41 -2.71% Hold 3.68%
3.50% 0.00% $ 94.84 0.00% Hold 0.95%
4.00% -14.29% $ 92.57 2.39% Hold -1.47%
4.50% -28.57% $ 90.29 4.80% Hold -3.90%
56. Conclusion
Assumed Cap Rate
Appendix
Although this demonstrates sensitivity, our recommendation remains
constant for the majority of possible outcomes
A significant drop in cap rate will cause property values to rise,
changing our recommendation to a BUY
Our cap rate of 5.25% was calculated using definitions from published
industry research, company guidance, and historical trend analysis
Terminal Cap
Rate
Percentage
change in rate
Weighted
Average Intrinsic
Precentage
change in value Recommendation
Return
from Stock
5.50% -8.33% $ 103.12 -8.73% Hold 9.76%
5.75% -4.17% $ 98.84 -4.22% Hold 5.20%
6.00% 0.00% $ 94.84 0.00% Hold 0.95%
6.25% 4.17% $ 91.22 3.82% Hold -2.91%
6.50% 8.33% $ 87.95 7.26% Hold -6.39%
57. Conclusion
Monte Carlo Factors Appendix
Factor The Factor Effects Parameters Explanation
2015 x: 89.0% s: 1.63%
2016 x: 89.5% s: 1.63%
2017 x: 90.0% s: 1.63%
2018 x: 90.2% s: 1.63%
2019 x: 90.5% s: 1.63%
2015 x: $10.2 s: $0.62
2016 x: $10.7 s: $0.62
2017 x: $11.1 s: $0.62
2018 x: $11.3 s: $0.62
2019 x: $11.4 s: $0.62
2015 x: 5.7% s: 2.0%
2016 x: 6.0% s: 2.0%
2017 x: 4.5% s: 2.0%
2018 x: 3.5% s: 2.0%
2019 x: 3.0% s: 2.0%
x: 8.32%
s: 1.15%
x: 8.48%
s: 1.15%
x: 6.00%
s: 0.46%
This accounts for sensitivity of shifts
in industry characteristics, the largest
average occupancy rate considered is
93%
Occupancy Rate Total Revenue
This allows for sensitivity in changes
of industry supply and demand
characteristics affecting SSS’s pricing
power
Sales per square foot Total Revenue
Net Growth Rate in square
feet
Total Revenue
This increases the sensitivity of the
model by allowing year-over-year
expected total square foot changes
Terminal Capitalization
Rate
Terminal Value
We are 95% confident that the
terminal cap rate will be between
5.08% and 6.92%
1st Tier WACC Cost of Capital
This increases sensitivity to short term
changes in interest rates
2nd Tier WACC Cost of Capital
This increases sensitivity to the
forecasted long-term normalized value
of interest rates
58. Conclusion
Monte Carlo Buy Scenario
Appendix
53.4%46.5%.1%
SimulationData
Mean 110.06$
SD 10.60$
5thPercentile 93.87$
95thPercentile 128.82$
59. Conclusion
Monte Carlo Factors (Buy Scenario)
Appendix
Factor The Factor Effects Parameters Explanation
2015 x: 89.0% s: 1.63%
2016 x: 90.0% s: 1.63%
2017 x: 91.0% s: 1.63%
2018 x: 91.5% s: 1.63%
2019 x: 92.0% s: 1.63%
2015 x: $10.4 s: $0.62
2016 x: $10.9 s: $0.62
2017 x: $11.4 s: $0.62
2018 x: $11.9 s: $0.62
2019 x: $12.2 s: $0.62
2015 x: 7.0% s: 2.0%
2016 x: 6.5% s: 2.0%
2017 x: 5.5% s: 2.0%
2018 x: 4.5% s: 2.0%
2019 x: 3.5% s: 2.0%
x: 8.32%
s: 1.15%
x: 8.48%
s: 1.15%
x: 5.75%
s: 0.46%
This accounts for sensitivity of shifts in industry
characteristics, the largest average occupancy
rate considered is 93%
Sales per square foot Total Revenue
This allows for sensitivity in changes of
industry supply and demand characteristics
affecting SSS’s pricing power
Net Growth Rate in
square feet
Total Revenue
This increases the sensitivity of the model by
allowing year-over-year expected total square
foot changes
Occupancy Rate Total Revenue
Terminal Capitalization
Rate
Terminal Value
We are 95% confident that the terminal cap
rate will be between 5.08% and 6.92%
1st Tier WACC Cost of Capital
This increases sensitivity to short term changes
in interest rates
2nd Tier WACC Cost of Capital
This increases sensitivity to the forecasted long-
term normalized value of interest rates
61. Company Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Risk Analysis Conclusion
Industry &
Competitive
Positioning
Relative Valuation
Appendix
EV to EBITDA Valuation ($ in Millions)
Mean EV / EBITDA Multiple 24.4x
LTM EBITDA $170.2
Enterprise Value $4,156.7
Less: Debt $762.6
Less: Minority Interest $12.9
Equity Value $3,381.1
Fully Diluted Shares Outstanding 34.2M
Intrinsic Value per Share $98.81
Current Trading Price (04-02-2015) $93.95
Premium (Discount) to Valuation 5.2%
Price to FFO / Share Valuation ($ in Millions)
Mean P / FFO Figure 24.3x
LTM FFO / Share $4.0
Equity Value $97.13
Current Trading Price (04-02-2015) $93.95
Premium (Discount) to Valuation 3.4%
62. Company Overview Financial Analysis Valuation Risk Analysis Conclusion
Industry &
Competitive
Positioning
Multiples
Appendix
Company
Ent. Val.
(M)
EV /
EBITDA P / FFO
EV /
Rev
Debt /
EBITDA
Price /
NOI
P / Tang
BV
Dividend
Yield
SSS $3,957.4 23.3x 23.5x 14.5x 4.8x 22.1x 3.3x 3.3%
CUBE $5,077.5 25.1x 22.9x 13.7x 5.8x 21.6x 3.0x 2.7%
EXR $10,266.4 25.4x 26.3x 15.6x 5.9x 24.0x 4.4x 3.0%
PSA $38,284.7 23.9x 24.5x 16.8x 2.7x 25.0x 7.1x 2.8%
Mean 24.4x 24.3x 15.1x 4.8x 23.2x 4.5x 3.0%
Median 24.5x 24.0x 15.0x 5.3x 23.0x 3.9x 2.9%
63. Conclusion
Company FFO Calculations
SOVRAN Calculation of FFO Nine Months Ended
9/30/2014
Net Income attributable to common shareholders 62,838$
Net Income attributable to noncontrolling interest 381
Depreciation ofrealestate and amortization ofintangible assets 37,097
Depreciation ofrealestate included in discontinued operations -
Depreciation and amortization fromunconsolidated joint ventures 1,166
(Gain) on sale ofrealestate (1,777)
Funds fromOperations allocable to noncontrolling redeemable
Operating Partnership Units (601)
FFO available to common shareholders 99,104$
SSS and EXR use NAREIT definition of FFO
PSA does not include operating partnership units in calculation.
Prefers using their own “Core FFO” Calculation
CUBE does not use NAREIT Definition
Appendix
64. Conclusion
Premium on BUY Assumption Defense Appendix
SSS CUBE EXR
Standard Deviation 2 Years Ago 19.24% 20.32% 18.35%
Standard Deviation Last Full Year 15.59% 17.07% 15.45%
PSA GSPC RMZ
Standard Deviation 2 Years Ago 15.29% 11.59% 18.50%
Standard Deviation Last Full Year 12.89% 11.60% 20.68%
Editor's Notes
TO BE DONE
Tiel triange = 46
Star = 10-19
Box 20-30
Circle <10