Yonatan Shaham is developing an agent-based model called CIFER to simulate multiple ignition fire scenarios in cities and evaluate firefighting strategies. CIFER will model fire ignition based on population patterns, fire spread based on fuel distribution and building layout, and firefighting based on accessibility and tactics. It aims to understand dynamics of multiple fires, evaluate existing strategies, and identify novel strategies. CIFER represents firefighters as autonomous agents following rules to battle fires emerging from an underlying spatially-explicit fire spread model tailored to Mediterranean cities. Professional firefighters will test strategies in CIFER's game interface.

1. Modeling Multiple Ignition Scenarios for Assessment of
Firefighting Strategies
Yonatan Shaham, PhD candidate
Supervisor: Itzhak Benenson
Porter School for Environmental Studies
GeoSimulation and Spatial Analysis
Tel Aviv University

2. Motivation
• Multiple ignition scenarios pose
a great threat to cities as
firefighters are outnumbered by
simultaneous fires:
• Multiple ignition scenarios
include: fires following
earthquake, fires cased by wars
and rocket lunching, industrial
catastrophes and severe wild-fires
• Simultaneous fires cause
systemic effects and Firefighters
are outnumbered
City Firefighters' Response model (CIFER) | Yonatan Shaham, PhD candidate | Supervisor: Itzhak Benenson
Porter School for Environmental Studies, GeoSimulation and Spatial Analysis | Tel Aviv University

3. The meaning of space
• Fire ignition is dependent on
the presence of people which
is characterized by tempo-
spatial patterns
• Fire spread is dependent on:
• The spatial distribution of fuel
• The spatial configuration of
constructions
• The spatial relations of constructions
and vegetation
• Meteorological conditions
• Firefighting is dependent on:
• Fire spread
• Accessibility – road network,
congestion, city structure
Spatially-explicit agent-based simulation of firefighting
activity: Firefighters facing burning room and impinging
flames (model prototype)
City Firefighters' Response model (CIFER) | Yonatan Shaham, PhD candidate | Supervisor: Itzhak Benenson
Porter School for Environmental Studies, GeoSimulation and Spatial Analysis | Tel Aviv University

4. CIFER: Research Goals
• To understand the dynamics of multiple-ignition scenarios
with respect to the spatial properties of the Israeli city
• To evaluate exiting firefighting strategies in multiple-ignition
scenarios with respect to the spatial properties of the Israeli
city
• To identify and evaluate novel firefighting strategies in
multiple-ignition scenarios with respect to the spatial
properties of the Israeli city
City Firefighters' Response model (CIFER) | Yonatan Shaham, PhD candidate | Supervisor: Itzhak Benenson
Porter School for Environmental Studies, GeoSimulation and Spatial Analysis | Tel Aviv University

5. Agent-based models and the
bounded rationality of firefighters
• People are very poor optimizers and do tackle problems by using
heuristics and rule-based algorithms.
• This is true also and even more prominently for firefighters:
• Firefighters' modus operandi is to follow rules and procedures
• Firefighters need to take quick decisions under higher than usual pressure
• Firefighters will face scarce information of poor quality during multiple
ignition scenarios
• Thus, CIFER is an agent-base model which takes firefighters as:
• autonomous agents
• following rules
• while retrieving and exchanging information
• This allows to study self-organization and emergence of system-level
dynamics
• Professional firefighter officers will engage with CIFER in game mode
to explore strategies
City Firefighters' Response model (CIFER) | Yonatan Shaham, PhD candidate | Supervisor: Itzhak Benenson Porter
School for Environmenal Studies, GeoSimulation and Spatial Analysis | Tel Aviv University

6. CIFER: general scheme
City Firefighters' Response model (CIFER) | Yonatan Shaham, PhD candidate | Supervisor: Itzhak Benenson Porter
School for Environmenal Studies, GeoSimulation and Spatial Analysis | Tel Aviv University

7. CIFER: agents and objects
City Firefighters' Response model (CIFER) | Yonatan Shaham, PhD candidate | Supervisor: Itzhak Benenson Porter
School for Environmenal Studies, GeoSimulation and Spatial Analysis | Tel Aviv University

8. Modeling fire spread in
Mediterranean and Middle-East cities
• Model of fire spread in
Mediterranean and
Middle-East cities,
should account for:
• non-flammability of the
majority of constructions
• vegetation that fill inter-
building space
• and is highly flammable
during the long summers
that last up to 8 months
City Firefighters' Response model (CIFER) | Yonatan Shaham, PhD candidate | Supervisor: Itzhak Benenson Porter
School for Environmenal Studies, GeoSimulation and Spatial Analysis | Tel Aviv University
Trees between two apartments buildings acting as a fire spread
accelerator, Tel Aviv, Israel.

9. CIFER base layer: spatially explicit model of
urban fire spread with many ignitions
City Firefighters' Response model (CIFER) | Yonatan Shaham, PhD candidate | Supervisor: Itzhak Benenson
Porter School for Environmental Studies, GeoSimulation and Spatial Analysis | Tel Aviv University

10. CIFER top layer: firefighters’ decision
making - UI for professional firefighter
officers
City Firefighters' Response model (CIFER) | Yonatan Shaham, PhD candidate | Supervisor: Itzhak Benenson Porter
School for Environmenal Studies, GeoSimulation and Spatial Analysis | Tel Aviv University

11. For more information
Yonatan Shaham
yjonas83@gmail.com
City Firefighters' Response model (CIFER) | Yonatan Shaham, PhD candidate | Supervisor: Itzhak Benenson Porter
School for Environmenal Studies, GeoSimulation and Spatial Analysis | Tel Aviv University