My comments at a recent metals conference in Beijing on the outlook for Antimony production and demand over the next 10 years

1. Antimony's Decade? ProductionTrends
CHRISTOPHER ECCLESTONE
Hallgarten & Company LLC
& International Antimony Mines
Beijing
15th September 2014

2. 2
Some Background
ThestoryofAntimonyproductionintheWestinrecentyearshasbeenpatchybutthisisnotsurprisingconsideringthatthereare:
Sofewantimonyprojectsbeingofferedaround
Sofewinvestorsunderstandthemetal,itsgeologyoritspricedynamics
TheAntimonypricerecoveryhaslargelyover-lappedwithaperiodofgrimfinancingprospectsforspecialtymetalsandminingingeneral
Severaloftheprospective“new”players(EasternAntimony, andvariousHillgrovewannabeshavebeenthwartedintheirefforts)

3. 3
Antimony Resurgent?
InrecentyearswehaveseenUranium,Lithium,RareEarths& Graphite,insequence,becomemarketfadsandthenfade…ofallofthemUraniumwastheonlycyclicalonehavinghadvariousupwellingsininvestorinterestinthepast..
Antimonystarteditspriceriseafterthe2008crash,whenother“sexy”storieswerealsoappearingonthescenee.g. gold/silver’sreboundandtheappearanceoftheotherspecialtymetalmanias
AntimonyhadthedisadvantagethattherearefewhistoricminesinNorthAmerica,letalonegreenfielddeposits.Thismeantlessinterestfromstockmarketpromoters.
Australia,though,doeshaveahistoryofSbminingandthusmorevehicleswerecreatedthere…..Butstillonlyafew

4. 4
How the market might evolve....
•A revival in equity markets creates a sound basis
•A revival in Sb prices (i.e. back above $12K per tonne) gives confidence to promoters that the metal is back on a roll
•Sb properties disguised as gold stories (along the Mandalay lines) gaining traction with investors
•Appearance of a couple of serious listed stocks in Canada with a commitment to production
•Some of the existing (or de novo) ASX-listed Sb hunters moving towards production
•Slow drip feed of information to investors starting to build up a hunger for more equity plays amongst those attuned to Critical Metals issues.
•Traders and end-users more dynamically supporting up-and- coming stories than the previous desultory efforts

5. 6
Up & Coming Producers
•Canada –reopening of Beaverbrook, Lake George and West Gore
•Spain/Portugal –Reopening San Antonio et al. Revival of smaller gold/antimony properties in Porto region
•Turkey –consolidation & professionalisation of smaller quasi- artisanal players
•Mexico –consolidation of quasi-artisanal players
•Russia –onset of production from RusAnt
•Australia -revival of mining in New South Wales (Hillgrove etc) and Queensland
Other Possible Producers
•France
•Peru
•Slovakia

6. 7
Traders & Offtakers
ThekeycomponentinfinancingintheAntimonyspaceistheroleplayedbythosefartherdowntheSbfoodchain.
•Traders have been trying to extricate themselves from their dependence upon Chinese supply
•End-users have been trying to do the same
•Meanwhile Chinese players have been trying to secure sources of concentrate to send back to the “mothership” to maintain Chinese dominance in the Sb space.
The shortcomings of this model are that traders seldom want more than 5-15% of the equity of the listed company or even the project. This is not enough to get project properly funded.
The positives are that these two kinds of investors understand that Sb mines that are small can be viable while equity markets do not.