China has rapidly expanded its high-speed rail (HSR) network over the past decade and aims to complete a national HSR network by 2020. This will connect major cities and consolidate China's economic centers. While HSR can carry some goods, its main economic impact will be on passenger travel and the flow of people and services. It may accelerate the formation of megacity clusters in China and boost connectivity between economic regions along HSR corridors. Regionally, a proposed China-ASEAN HSR line could consolidate China's role in Asian trade and Singapore's position as a major services hub, while some medium-sized cities may lose out to larger hubs connected by HSR.

1. (source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planned_high-
speed_rail_by_country
http://www.thetransportpolitic.com/2010/03/09/china-
promotes-its-transcontinental-ambitions-with-massive-rail-
plan/)
How will the new silk railroads affect Singapore?

2. Please see accompanying animation of China’s HSR at
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CLrmUTDJan8

3. HSR refers to predominantly passenger rail
transport at 250 kph and above. Economic
impacts are on people flows (services).
HSR can carry goods, but the low volume
has negligible impact on shipping flows.
(except for low-vol/high-val items)
What is High Speed Rail ?

4. 2002 2008 2010
China HSR track ---- 1004km 7055km
in operation
Market share of rail 70% 15-20 %
projects by foreign
manufacturers
Developmental
Milestones. China South has slightly
Home-grown HSR First HSR between BJ-TJ in
China Star shelved. operation in time for Olympics. over half domestic HSR
market share.
37%
China North and China
South LORICs formed. China signs overseas HSR
of RMB 4
Min Railways issues agreements with Turkey,
70% local supplier trillion economic stimulus Venezuela, Thailand etc.
policy. package goes to HSR.
Local IP not good enough. Financial crisis accelerates Local JVs end. China goes
Import foreign IP for HSR building. overseas with former
‘digesting’. partners or alone.
China transforms from HSR importer to disruptive low cost HSR provider in 10 years.
Source: http://www.uic.org/IMG/pdf/20100521_a1_high_speed_lines_in_the_world.pdf

5. Underpinned by policy and
domestic infrastructure build out,
HSR will accelerate the formation
of the Chinese domestic market
NS2 over the next decade.
1) HSR network completed by 2020.
‘4 by 4’ matrix of HSR corridors
Four north-south lines
NS1 Beijing-Shanghai
EW3 NS2 Beijing-Shenyang-Harbin
NS3 Beijing-Guangzhou-Shenzhen
NS4 Beijing-Ningbo-Xiamen
EW2 Four east-west lines
NS1 EW1 Shanghai-Hangzhou-Changsha
EW2 Xuzhou-Zhengzhou-Lanzhou
EW3 Qingdao-Taiyuan
EW4 Shanghai-Wuhan-Chengdu
EW4 (Source:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:4%2B4_PDL_network_in_C
hina_%28English_version%29.png)
EW1 NS4
NS3

6. 6 hours
Underpinned by policy and
domestic infrastructure build out,
4 hours
HSR will accelerate the formation
3 hours of the Chinese domestic market
2 hours
over the next decade.
1 hour
2) Shorter travelling times ‘shrink’ China.
Major cities can be accessed within 8 hours.
The BJ-HK line is the longest at over 1,000km.
(Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:China_high-
speed_rail_network.png)
6 hours
8 hours

7. Underpinned by policy and
domestic infrastructure build out,
HSR will accelerate the formation
of the Chinese domestic market
over the next decade.
3) Megacity clusters are emerging.
22 city clusters comprising 606 cities, 82%
urban population & 92% urban GDP by 2015.
Red dots are the centers of each cluster.
Thicker lines account for more share of GDP.
(Source: Chinese consumer Cluster Map, McKinsey Insights
China, 2009)

8. Underpinned by policy and
domestic infrastructure build out,
HSR will accelerate the formation
of the Chinese domestic market
over the next decade.
4) Rise of winner city clusters in interior
HSR city corridors which connect significant
economic regions benefit economically as
extended hinterlands.
E.g. Changsha-Wuhan-Zhengzhou-
Shijiazhuang HSR corridor

9. Russia: Russia may not Astana Ulan Bator
want China HSR in its To N N
3 2
territory. Uncertain. Moscow
J E
Central Asia: To acquire Shijiazhuang 1 3
C N
natural resources. May C 1 1
C K E
happen. 17 2 Tianjin 1 2 Busan
Fukuoka
Beijing Jinan
C E
W W C W C Zhengzhou 3 1
3 2 x 1 16 East Asia: Korea is
C
4
Xuzhou pushing for a
Mashdad Tashkent Urumqi C Wuhan
15 C
transoceanic HSR
Nanchang Bengbu
Kunming 5 tunnel to link the three
M A C M C
C Huangshan C Nanjing nations’ HSR systems.
10 C 6
2 1 y 1 11
9
Uncertain.
To Delhi C C C
Changsha 12 8 Shanghai
London 7
13 Hangzhou
Guangzhou-
14
Shenzhen- HK
W M M
4 4 3 A
3 Yangon
Lahore
Tehran A ASEAN: May build on Kunming-
4 Vientiane Singapore railway link agreement. BKK
A
Middle East: India may not 2
becomes HSR hub. Singapore is the
want China HSR in its territory. Hanoi last node. More likely to happen.
Does not link with India’s A A A A A A
planned HSR. Uncertain. 5 6 7 8 9
A
10 11
HCM City Phnom Penh Bangkok KL Singapore
Transcontinental silk railroads may consolidate China as the center of Asian trade.

10. -
HSR does not create growth, but it polarizes growth.
0 +
Air routes < 800km/ 3hrs lose ‘Rent-intensive’ activities like ‘Face-intensive’ activities like
80% of traffic manufacturing are indifferent. finance, education services will
consolidate in big node cities.
More tourists, less hotel nights HSR does not bring growth to
growth-depressed areas. Medium-sized cities lose out to
Economically unattractive big node cities.
cities will lose activities to Marginal effects on housing and
better cities. population growth.
Qualifier: Studies based on mature HSR markets. China may be different.
LCC that depend on Singapore- If Singapore’s economic Singapore consolidates into
KL-BKK route will be affected. attractiveness is unchanged, ASEAN’s primary service hub.
industrial activities remain.
Mega events may have more Bangkok has the most to gain
visitors, less hotel nights. E.g. There may not be a ‘diffusion’ of while KL may see hollowing out.
stay in KL for F1 SGP-based workers into lower-cost
Malaysia.
Regional effects of HSR on industrial activities and services. China-ASEAN HSR line
Source: “High-speed rail: Lessons for policy makers from experiences abroad”, Mar 2010, Research Institute of Applied Economics, University of Barcelona

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