Chap 3 collcting info and forecasting demand llamado

chp 3: Collecting Information
and Forecasting Demand
Jiah Pe Llamado
https://www.linkedin.com/in/jiahpellamado/

comprehensive, up to date
info
macro trends
micro effects
continuous monitoring
forecasting
adapting

who: Marketers
task: collecting info
interaction
competitor check

ORDERS
SALES
PRICES
COST
INVENTORY
RECEIVABLES
PAYABLES

ORDER >> PAYMENT
CYCLE
FAST
RELIABLE

SALES INFORMATION
SYSTEM
timely and accurate
reports on current sales
ie. Walmart - SALES:
INVENTORY(/cust/day/st
ore)
ie. COOKIES - online web

DATABASE, DATA WAREHOUSING, DATA
MINING
customer database (info) -- recent purchase,
past transactions
= rank customers
= FRESH INSIGHTS
to = neglected customer segments, trends, etc

‘happenings’ data
HOW TO COLLECT?
reading papers
talking to customers, suppliers, dist.
monitor social media
meeting with other marketing managers

gathering info:
ethical
legal
1. train and motivate sales force
2. motivate dist, retailers to pass along
important intelligence
3. hire extermal experts to collect
intelligence
4. network internally and externally
5. set up a customer advisory panel
6. take advantage of government-
related data resources
7. purchase information from outside
research firms and vendors

NEEDS AND TRENDS
new solutions to unmet
needs

FAD - unpredictable, short-lived, w/o social,
economics and political significance
TREND - more predicatable and durable
MEGATRENDS - large social, economic,
political and technological change

MEGATRENDS
slow to form, once in
place - influences us for
some time ( 7 years
above)

Demographic

Economic

Socio-Cultural

Natural

Technological

Political-legal

PRE-REQ:MARKETING
ENVIRONMENT AND
MARKETING RESEARCH
TO MEASURE AND
FORECAST: SIZE,
GROWTH, PROFIT
POTENTIAL OF EACH
NEW OPPORTUNITY

WHO CAN USE IT?
FINANCE - raise cash for investment and
operations
MANUFACTURING - establish capacity and output
PURCHASING - acquire right amount of suppliers
HUMAN RESOURCE - hire the needed workers

IF INACCURATE FORECAST(EFFECTS):
excess inventory

numerous ways: why?
ie. short term demand:
order raw mat-plan prod -
borrow cash
ie. regional demand: decide
whether to set up regional
dist.

ways to BREAK DOWN the market…
potential market
available market
target market
penetrated market

marketers first step in evaluating marketing
opportunities (est. total market demand)
total volume bought by a DEFINED customer
group (location/time/environment/marketing
program)

company’s estimated share of market
demand at alternate levels of company
marketing effort in a given time period.
it depends on how the company’s products,
services, prices and communications are
perceived relative to the competitors’

total market potential -
MAX. sales all firms (given
period, level of industry
marketing effort and
marketing conditions)
(no. buyer x ave. qty ea
purchase x price)

Area Market Potential - different cities, states,
nations
how? 2 methods:
1. market-buildup method - business marketers
use
2. multiple-factor index method - consumer use

identifying all potential buyers in each
market and estimating their potential
purchases.
produces accurate results if we have a list of
all potential buyers and a good estimate of
what each will buy

too numerous customers to list, they use a
straightforward index.
ie. drug manufacturer
- market potential = population size

macroeconomic forecast
industry forecast
company sales forecast

create own
but forecast from outside sources (marketing
research firms, interview customers)

all forecasts are built on one
of 3 information bases:
what people say
what people do
what people have done

Chap 3 collcting info and forecasting demand llamado

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