This document discusses avoiding major downside risks to the global economy while still facing challenges. It notes that key risks include loss of capital market access in vulnerable Eurozone countries, lack of agreement on US fiscal policy, and commodity price shocks. It recommends focusing on productivity-enhancing domestic policies rather than demand stimulus to address economic issues.

1. Avoiding Cliffs, but still facing mountains
• Major downside risks include the loss of access to capital markets by vulnerable Euro Area
countries, lack of agreement on U.S. fiscal policy and the debt ceiling, and commodity price
shocks.
• Therefore, we have to focus on productivity-enhancing domestic policies rather than demand
stimulus

2. Investment grade Strengthening business climate within core GCC, weakening in most other parts
Speculative grade
Not rated
Strong Enabling
Environment
Ideal Point
Low Country Risk
Large Energy
Investments KSA UAE
Opportunities
Qatar
KUW
OMA
IRN
BAH
EGY
IRQ TUN
LIB
SYR
YEM
SUD
Small Energy
High Country Risk Investments
Opportunities
Weak Enabling
Environment

3. Sub-Saharan Africa Forecast Summary MENA Forecast Summary
8
10.0
7
8.0 6
6.0 5
2013
2013 4
4.0 2014
2014 3
2.0 2015
2015 2
0.0 1
GDP (Mkt Prices) (PPP)
R. GDP Exports, GNFS
Imports, GNFS (%GDP)
CA, BAL 0
-2.0
GDP (Mkt Prices) (PPP)
R. GDP Exports, GNFS
Imports, GNFS (%GDP)
CA, BAL
-4.0
Euro Area The World
8 8.0
7 7.0
6 6.0
5 5.0
2013 2013
4 4.0
2014 2014
3 3.0
2015 2015
2 2.0
1 1.0
0 0.0
GDP (Mkt Prices)
-1 R. GDP (PPP)
Exports, GNFS
Imports, GNFSBAL (%GDP)
CA, GDP (Mkt Prices) (PPP)
R. GDP Exports, GNFS
Imports, GNFS (%GDP)
CA, BAL

4. Europe and Central Asia Forecast Summary