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Cement industry analysis

India is the second largest cement producer in the world, with nearly 300 million tonnes of annual production capacity. The private sector dominates production, accounting for 98% of total capacity. Large cement plants with capacities over 0.5 million tonnes per year comprise 97% of total installed capacity. The states of Andhra Pradesh, Rajasthan and Tamil Nadu account for the majority of large cement plants. Cement demand is expected to grow substantially over the coming years, driven by growth in infrastructure and real estate development.

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Second largest Cement market • With nearly 300 million tonne of cement production capacity, India is the second largest cement producer in the world Dominated by private players • Of the total capacity, 98 per cent lies with the private sector and the rest with public sector Higher share of large plants • 185 large cement plants together account for 97 per cent of the total installed capacity, while 365 small plants account for the rest Large concentration in South and West • Of the total 185 large cement plants in India, 77 are located in the states of Andhra Pradesh, Rajasthan and Tamil Nadu Source: Planning Commission, Aranca Research
• The engineering sector is delicensed; 100 per cent FDI is allowed in the sector • Due to policy support, there was cumulative FDI of USD14.0 billion into the sector over April 2000 – February 2012, making up 8.6 per cent of total FDI into the country in that period Growing demand Source: Edelweiss Notes: FY20E – Estimated market size for 2020 Robust demand • Robust infrastructure growth during 12th Five Year Plan to drive growth • Demand is expected to be boosted by growth in real estate sector Long-term potential • Oligopoly market, where large players have partial pricing control • Low threat from substitutes Attractive opportunities • The North-East, which is witnessing a construction boom, offers attractive investment opportunities • Large planned investments in infrastructure and housing is likely to boost demand for cement in the coming years as well Increasing investments • Robust investments are being made by the existing players to expand their capacity • Increasing presence of Tier II cement players • Use of alternate fuels to lower production costs and emissions FY12 Production capacity: 247 million tonnes FY20E Production capacity: 407 million tonnes Advantage India
Source: Cement Manufacturers’ Association (CMA),Planning Commission, Aranca Research Note: mtpa - Million Tonnes Per Annum, * FY12 data Cement Industry (FY13) Mini And White Cement PlantsLarge Cement Plants • Cement plants: 185 • Installed capacity: 339.5 mtpa • Cement production: 168.3 mtpa* • Cement plants: 365 • Installed capacity: 11.1 mtpa • Cement production: 6.0 mtpa*
Top Cement Consumers in 2011 (million tonnes) Source: International Cement Review, Aranca Research India is the 2nd largest cement producer as well as consumer in the world led by the enormous growth in the infrastructure and construction sector for the last two decades Top Cement Producer in 2011 (million tonnes) 2,048 229 72 65 58 56 56 50 49 48 China India USA Brazil Russia Iran Turkey Egypt Vietnam Indonesia 2,058 222 66 66 64 63 56 56 52 49 China India Iran USA Brazil Turkey Japan Russia Vietnam Indonesia
Production of Cement (million tonnes) Source: Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion, Working group for 12th Five Year Plan, Aranca Research Notes: E - Estimate, CAGR - Compound Annual Growth Rate Cement production increased at a CAGR of 9.7 per cent to 272 million tonnes over FY06–13 As per the 12th Five Year Plan, production is expected to reach 407 million tonnes by FY17 142 156 168 182 207 229 247 272 300 332 368 407 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E FY16E FY17E CAGR:10.0%
Domestic Cement Consumption (million tonnes) Source: Working group for 12th Five Year Plan, Aranca Research Notes: E – Estimate, CAGR - Compound Annual Growth Rate Domestic cement consumption is expected to reach 265 million tonnes in FY13 from 222 million tonnes in FY11 The consumption is further expected to increase at a CAGR of 10.2 per cent during FY11-17 and reach 398 million tonnes 222 242 265 293 324 359 398 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E FY16E FY17E CAGR:10.2%
323 336 350 373 405 441 479 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E FY16E FY17E Cement Production Capacity (million tonnes) Source: Working group for 12th Five Year Plan, Aranca Research Notes: E - Estimate, CAGR - Compound Annual Growth Rate Cement production capacity reached 350 million tonnes in FY13 from 323 million tonnes in FY11 Production capacity is expected to increase at a CAGR of 6.8 per cent during FY11-17 and reach 479 million tonnes CAGR:6.8%
Cement capacity (million tonnes) and utilisation rate (%) Source: Working group for 12th Five Year Plan, Aranca Research Notes: E - Estimate, CAGR - Compound Annual Growth Rate Cement capacity utilisation rate is expected to touch around 78 per cent in FY13 from 71 per cent in FY11 The utilisation rate is expected to further reach 85 per cent by FY17 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E FY16E FY17E Capacity -LHS Production-LHS Utilisation rate (%)
Source: Working group for 12th Five Year Plan, Aranca Research Currently, India has 185 large cement plants spread across all states Andhra Pradesh is the leading state with 37 large cement plants, followed by Rajasthan and Tamil Nadu having 21 and 19 plants, respectively 37 19 21 1112 11 10 10 11 5 5 4 8 3 3 5 3 2 2 1 1 1
Source: Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion, Aranca Research Note: mtpa - Million Tonnes Per Annum Cement Industry South North East West Central 126.9 mtpa 66.4 mtpa 43.5 mtpa 44.1 mtpa 37.3 mtpa Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana and the NCR West Bengal, Chhattisgarh, Orissa and Jharkhand West Bengal, Chhattisgarh, Orissa and Jharkhand Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh Installed capacity (2011) Key markets
Shares in Total Capacity in Northern Region (2011) Source: International Cement Review, Aranca Research Rajasthan has the highest installed capacity in North India, accounting for a 66.5 per cent share in capacity in the region in 2011 Chhattisgarh leads the Eastern region with a share of 32.6 per cent of total installed capacity in the region in 2011 Shares in Total Capacity in Eastern Region (2011) 66.5% 14.2% 7.2% 6.0% 4.5% 0.8% 0.8% Rajasthan Himachal Pradesh Punjab Uttarakhand Haryana Jammu & Kashmir Delhi 0.5% 7.5% 2.3% 19.5% 20.8%16.8% 32.6% Assam Meghalaya Bihar Jharkhand Orissa West Bengal Chhattisgard
Shares in total capacity in Southern region (2011) Source: International Cement Review, Aranca Research Andhra Pradesh has the highest installed capacity in South India (53.5 per cent share of total installed capacity) Madhya Pradesh leads the Central region in installed capacity, while Gujarat leads the West 53.5% 28.0% 18.0% 0.5% Andhra Pradesh Tamil Nadu Karnataka Kerala 34.4% 65.6% Uttar Pradesh Madhya Pradesh 55.0% 45.0% Gujarat Maharashtra Shares in total capacity in Central region (2011) Shares in total capacity in Western region (2011)
All India (million tonnes) Source: International Cement Review, Aranca Research Total demand for cement is expected to grow at a CAGR of 10.2 per cent to 265.9 million tonnes during FY08-13 Cement demand from the Eastern and Central regions during FY08-13 is expected to grow at a CAGR of 13.5 per cent and 12.1 per cent, respectively. Central (million tonnes) East (million tonnes) 163.4 177.5 196.4 210.2 236.3 265.9 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11F FY12F FY13F 23.8 26.2 30.8 34.3 38.2 42.0 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11F FY12F FY13F 24.7 28.0 33.0 37.3 41.7 46.6 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11F FY12F FY13F CAGR: 10.2% CAGR: 12.1% CAGR: 13.5%
32.7 34.5 38.8 41.4 45.4 49.8 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11F FY12F FY13F 33.6 35.1 38.3 40.8 48.6 51.0 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11F FY12F FY13F 48.6 53.8 55.5 56.4 62.1 63.9 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11F FY12F FY13F South (million tonnes) Source: International Cement Review, Aranca Research Cement demand from Western, Northern and Southern regions is expected to grow at a CAGR of 8.8, 8.7 and 5.6 per cent, respectively, during FY08-13 North (million tonnes) West (million tonnes) CAGR: 5.6% CAGR: 8.7% CAGR: 8.8%
All India Source: International Cement Review, Aranca Research UltraTech Cement, a major player in India, accounted for 15.0 per cent of the total market share in terms of installed capacity in 2011 It is a leading player in the Southern and Eastern regions, accounting for 50.6 and 52.1 per cent of total market share, respectively, in terms of installed capacity in 2011 South East 10.2% 5.9% 9.9% 8.3% 7.1% 8.0% 50.6% India Cement Madras Cement Ultratech Cement Chettinad Cement Dalmia Cement ACC Others 14.2% 6.2% 12.1% 9.8% 5.5% 52.1% Lafarge India ACC Ultratech OCL India Ltd Ambuja Cement Others 10.0% 7.5% 15.0% 1.4%66.1% Ambuja Cement ACC Ultratech Cement Jaypee Cement Others
North Source: International Cement Review, Aranca Research Jaypee Cement led the Central region in terms of installed capacity, with 33.5 per cent of the market share; the Western region was dominated by UltraTech cement with 29.0 per cent of market share in 2011 Ambuja Cements accounted for 28.9 per cent of the total market share in terms of installed capacity in the Northern region in 2011 Central West 28.9% 16.6% 14.2% 13.8% 11.1% 7.3% 5.5% 2.5% Ambuja Cement Shree Cement Others Ultratech Cement J K Cement ACC Jaypee Cement Birla Cement 33.5% 12.3% 12.1% 42.1% Jaypee Cement Ultratech Cement ACC Others 29.0% 10.9% 12.5% 47.6% Ultratech Cement Jaypee Cement Ambuja Cement Others
Increasing presence of small and mid-size cement players • Presence of small and mid-size cement players across regions is increasing, which helps to diminish market concentration of industry leaders • Small and mid-size players have been constantly increasing their installed capacity to cater to increasing cement demand Cost reduction through the use of alternate fuels ** • Major cement manufacturers in India are increasingly using alternate fuels, especially bioenergy, to fire their kilns • This is not only helping to reduce production costs of cement companies, but is also proving effective in reducing emissions Increasing sale of blended cement • The proportionate sales of blended varieties of cement—Portland Pozzolana Cement (PPC) and Portland Blast Furnace Slag Cement (PBFC)—has risen over the years • During 2011, blended cement accounted for 75 per cent of total cement production in the country Notes: ** The Success Stories section includes cases of successful employment of alternate fuels in cement production to reduce production costs
ACC • Holcim, a Switzerland-based major cement company has plans for capacity expansion in India through its subsidiary ACC cement • The construction of the company’s new plant at Jamul, Chhattisgarh is under process. This plant will increase ACC’s capacity to 35 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) from 30 mtpa in a phased manner by 2015 Ambuja Cements • Ambuja Cements is targeting an investment of USD370.4 million for capacity expansion in Rajasthan and Northern India • The proposed project in Rajasthan is expected to add 5 million tonnes (MT) to Ambuja Cements’ existing production capacity Dalmia Cement • Dalmia Cement is planning an investment of USD333.3 million to ramp up its manufacturing capacity to 21 mtpa from the existing 17 mtpa over the next two years. • Dalmia has plans to set up a 2.5 million tonne (MT) greenfield unit at Belgaum in Karnataka. It also plans to scale up its two plants in North-East India for a total value of USD239 million and USD9.2 million, respectively Source: Aranca Research
Heidelberg Cement • Heidelberg Cement, a Germany-based cement manufacturer has commissioned Phase-I of its Jhansi grinding unit • The company has undertaken an investment worth USD 259.4 million for expanding its capacity to 2.7 million tonnes (MT) • Heidelberg aims to ramp up the operational capacity to 6 MT at its Damoh plant in Madhya Pradesh Vicat Group • Vicat Group, a France-based company plans to sell 4.5 MT of cement in India in FY 2013 • The company has recently commissioned a joint venture cement plant Vicat Sagar Cement at Chattrasal, Karnataka, for a total value of USD333.3 million • Vicat Sagar will have a 2.8 MT of capacity in the first phase Amrit Cement • Amrit Cement India Ltd (ACIL) has announced the launch of Amrit Cement in the North- Eastern market. • The company plans to achieve a production level of 5 million tonnes per annum by 2015– 16 through capacity expansion in North-Eastern Bihar and Nepal Source: Aranca Research
Source : Aranca Research • High – Huge capital investments required present substantial barriers to entry and achieving economies of scale • Moderate – Cement players have to depend on the railways for carriage outward and local coal companies for fuel, although diversification of freight options and fuel sources is diminishing the suppliers’ power • Low – Substantial market concentration among large players ensures low bargaining power of buyers • Low – Cement, practically, has no substitutes • Low – The Indian cement market is oligopolistic in nature, characterised by tacit collusion, where large players partially control supply for better price discipline Positive Neutral PositivePositive Positive Market Attractiveness
Source : McKinsey Quarterly Report, Aranca Research Housing Growth Infrastructure Growth Commercial Real Estate Growth • The Housing segment accounts for a major portion of the total domestic demand for cement in India • Real estate market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 17.2 per cent over 2011–15 to USD126 billion • Growing urbanisation, an increasing number of households and higher employment are primarily driving the demand for housing • Initiatives by the government are expected to provide an impetus to construction activity in rural and semi-urban areas through large infrastructure and housing development projects respectively • The government is strongly focused on infrastructure development to boost economic growth • It plans to increase investment in infrastructure to USD1 trillion in the 12th Five Year Plan (2012–17), compared with USD514 billion under the 11th Five Year Plan (2007–12) • Infrastructure projects such as Dedicated Freight Corridors as well as new and upgraded airports and ports are expected to further drive construction activity • The government intends to expand the capacity of the railways and the facilities for handling and storage to ease the transportation of cement and reduce transportation costs • The government is strongly focused on infrastructure development to boost economic growth • It plans to increase investment in infrastructure to USD1 trillion in the 12th Five Year Plan (2012–17), compared with USD514 billion under the 11th Five Year Plan (2007–12) • Infrastructure projects such as Dedicated Freight Corridors as well as new and upgraded airports and ports are expected to further drive construction activity • The government intends to expand the capacity of the railways and the facilities for handling and storage to ease the transportation of cement and reduce transportation costs
Major cement demand drivers (FY12) Source: Aranca Research Demand for cement is highly correlated with cyclical activities like construction and development Housing sector accounts for 64 per cent of the total cement demand Real estate market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 17.2 per cent during 2011–15 to USD126 billion The rapidly increasing real estate industry in India is expected to push the demand for cement Residential real estate demand is driven by rising population and growing urbanisation Rising income levels are leading to higher demand for luxury projects Demand for affordable housing is growing in order to meet the demand from lower income groups Commercial real estate demand will be driven by growth in IT/ITeS sector and organised retail 64% 17% 13% 6% Housing sector Infrastructure Commercial & Institutional Industrial
Infrastructure Spending As % Of GDP Source: Working group for 12th Five Year Plan Notes: Additional capacity creation estimates are based on increase in base lines, roads, housing and fiscal support Investment in infrastructure is the main growth driver for the cement industry The Planning Commission estimates total infrastructure spending to be about of 10 per cent of the GDP during the 12th Five-Year Plan (2012–17), up from 7.6 per cent during the previous five-year plan (2007–12) India’s investment in infrastructure is estimated to double to about USD1 trillion during the 12th plan (2012–17) compared to the previous plan Infrastructure Spending in % during 11th And 12th Five-year Plan 75.7 69.4 89.5 101.6 101.9 157.4 181.2 206.0 233.5 264.4 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E FY16E FY17E 5.2% 6.4% 7.2% 7.5% 7.9% 8.4% 7.6% 10.0% 10th Five year plan FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 11th Five year plan 12th Five year plan 12th Plan 11th Plan
North Source: CMA, Kotak Institutional Equities, Aranca Research Note: F- Forecast South 82% 84% 88% FY11F FY12F FY13F 67% 68% 73% FY11F FY12F FY13F 81% 87% 91% FY11F FY12F FY13F East West Central All India 79% 77% 80% FY11F FY12F FY13F 90% 85% 87% FY11F FY12F FY13F 78% 77% 82% FY11F FY12F FY13F
12.8 13.5 23.6 31.9 35.5 38.7 FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E FY16E FY17E Capacity creation as per the 12th Five Year Plan (million tonnes) Source: Working group for 12th Five Year Plan Notes: Additional capacity creation estimates are based on increase in base lines, roads, housing and fiscal support, E - Estimates Total capacity of 336 million tonnes is estimated to have been generated in FY12 The strong momentum in capacity addition is not surprising given the sharp growth in construction, infrastructure and real estate in Indian economy Hence, the 12th Five Year Plan is estimated to have an additional capacity requirement of 156.0 million tonnes by FY17
Strategy BenefitsCompany/Plant Madras Cement's Alathiyur plant India Cements Ltd's Dalavoi plant UltraTech's Gujarat Cement Works Lafarge's Arasmeta plant Use bioenergy through burning of coffee husk and cashew nut shells Use Low Sulphur Heavy Stock (LSHS) sludge as alternate fuel Use tyre chips and rubber dust as alternate fuel Substitute 10% of coal used in kilns with rice husk Annual cost savings of USD1.7 million Annual savings of USD6500 approx Reduction of about 30,000 tonnes of carbon emissions annually Higher energy savings and lower carbon emissions Source: CMA, Aranca Research
Revenue and Profit after Tax (PAT) in USD billion Source: Company Website (www.grasim.com, Aranca Research Notes: RMC – Ready-Mix Concrete UltraTech is India's largest exporter of cement clinker spanning export markets in countries across the Indian Ocean, Africa, Europe and the Middle East UltraTech and its subsidiaries have a presence in five countries through 11 integrated plants, one white cement plant, one clinkerisation plant, 15 grinding units, two rail and three coastal terminals, and 101 RMC plants It has an annual capacity of 52 MT Projects: Mumbai Metro, Bangalore Metro Rail, Kolkata Metro Rail, Monorail, Coastal Gujarat Power MILESTONES • 2004 – Acquisition of L&T’s Cement Business: UltraTech Cement Ltd • 2006 – Narmada Cement Company Limited amalgamated with UltraTech • 2010 – Samruddhi Cement Limited amalgamated with UltraTech Cement Limited • 2012 – Acquisition of Adhunik Cement’s Meghalaya plant 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.5 3.0 4.0 3.9 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 CAGR: 23.5%
1.4 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.8 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 Revenue (USD billion) Source: Company Website, Aranca Research Note: mtpa – Million Tonnes Per Annum Ambuja Cements Ltd (ACL) is one of the leading cement manufacturing companies in India. The company, initially called Gujarat Ambuja Cements Ltd, was founded by Narotam Sekhsaria in 1983 Ambuja Cements is the second largest cement manufacturer in India, with nearly 10 per cent of the market share of total installed capacity It is the market leader in Northern India with 29 per cent of the total installed capacity MILESTONES • 2010 – Started cement plant at Nalagarh, Himachal Pradesh and Dadri, Uttar Pradesh with a capacity of 1.5 million tonnes • 2011 – Acquired 85 per cent stake in Nepal-based Dang Cement • 2012 – Expansion of Sankrail Grinding Unit, thereby increasing the capacity from 1.5 mtpa to 2.4 mtpa CAGR: 5.2%
Source: Industry Sources, Aranca Research Note: mtpa - Million Tonnes Per Annum 5.2 3.0 Estimated Demand Available Supply NE India: Cement demand NE India: Cement supply NE India: Cement demand-supply gap Deficit of 2.2 mtpa • The North Eastern (NE) region has consistently been in cement deficit for several years • At present, cement demand in the NE is about 5.2 mtpa • Cement manufactured locally is inadequate to meet the local demand for cement • The deficit is met through cement purchased from other parts of India • High transportation costs cause the landed costs of cement to increase considerably
NE States Projected GDP Growth at Constant Prices The Government has approved a package of fiscal incentives and other concessions for the North Eastern Region, namely the North East Industrial and Investment Policy, 2007, effective from 1 April, 2007 The major policy and fiscal initiatives are expected to catalyse infrastructure and industrial development in the region, spurring the demand for cement NE States Projected Per Capita Income Growth 10.0% 13.7% 16.4% XI 5-yr Plan XII 5-yr Plan XIII 5-yr Plan 8.6% 12.4% 15.2% XI 5-yr Plan XII 5-yr Plan XIII 5-yr Plan
Cement Manufacturers' Association CMA Tower, A-2E, Sector 24 NOIDA – 201 301 Uttar Pradesh, India Phone: 91-120-2411955, 2411957, 2411958 Fax: 91-120-2411956 E-mail: cmand@vsnl.com Website: www.cmaindia.org/index.html
Indian Concrete Institute Ocean Crest 79, Third Main Road, Gandhi Nagar, Adyar, Chennai – 600 020 Phone: 91-44-24912602 Fax: 91-44-24455148 E-mail: ici3@vsnl.in, ici4@airtelmail.in, vj6314@gmail.com Website: www.indianconcreteinstitute.org National Council for Cement and Building Materials 34th Milestone, Delhi-Mathura Road, Ballabgarh – 121 004 Haryana, India Phone: 91-129-2242051/52/53/54/55/56; 4192222 Fax : 91-129-2242100; 2246175 E-mail: nccbm@vsnl.com; info@ncbindia.com
CMA: Cement Manufacturers' Association GDP: Gross Domestic Product GoI: Government of India INR: Indian Rupee MTPA: Million tonnes per annum NE India: North-East India FY: Indian financial year (April to March) So FY10 implies April 2009 to March 2010 USD: US Dollar Wherever applicable, numbers have been rounded off to the nearest whole number
Year INR equivalent of one USD 2004-05 44.95 2005-06 44.28 2006-07 45.28 2007-08 40.24 2008-09 45.91 2009-10 47.41 2010-11 45.57 2011-12 47.94 2012-13 54.31 Exchange Rates (Fiscal Year) Year INR equivalent of one USD 2005 45.55 2006 44.34 2007 39.45 2008 49.21 2009 46.76 2010 45.32 2011 45.64 2012 54.69 2013 54.45 Exchange Rates (Calendar Year) Average for the year
India Brand Equity Foundation (“IBEF”) engaged Aranca to prepare this presentation and the same has been prepared by Aranca in consultation with IBEF. All rights reserved. All copyright in this presentation and related works is solely and exclusively owned by IBEF. The same may not be reproduced, wholly or in part in any material form (including photocopying or storing it in any medium by electronic means and whether or not transiently or incidentally to some other use of this presentation), modified or in any manner communicated to any third party except with the written approval of IBEF. This presentation is for information purposes only. While due care has been taken during the compilation of this presentation to ensure that the information is accurate to the best of Aranca and IBEF’s knowledge and belief, the content is not to be construed in any manner whatsoever as a substitute for professional advice. Aranca and IBEF neither recommend nor endorse any specific products or services that may have been mentioned in this presentation and nor do they assume any liability or responsibility for the outcome of decisions taken as a result of any reliance placed on this presentation. Neither Aranca nor IBEF shall be liable for any direct or indirect damages that may arise due to any act or omission on the part of the user due to any reliance placed or guidance taken from any portion of this presentation.

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Cement industry analysis

  • 2.
  • 3.
    Second largest Cement market •With nearly 300 million tonne of cement production capacity, India is the second largest cement producer in the world Dominated by private players • Of the total capacity, 98 per cent lies with the private sector and the rest with public sector Higher share of large plants • 185 large cement plants together account for 97 per cent of the total installed capacity, while 365 small plants account for the rest Large concentration in South and West • Of the total 185 large cement plants in India, 77 are located in the states of Andhra Pradesh, Rajasthan and Tamil Nadu Source: Planning Commission, Aranca Research
  • 4.
    • The engineeringsector is delicensed; 100 per cent FDI is allowed in the sector • Due to policy support, there was cumulative FDI of USD14.0 billion into the sector over April 2000 – February 2012, making up 8.6 per cent of total FDI into the country in that period Growing demand Source: Edelweiss Notes: FY20E – Estimated market size for 2020 Robust demand • Robust infrastructure growth during 12th Five Year Plan to drive growth • Demand is expected to be boosted by growth in real estate sector Long-term potential • Oligopoly market, where large players have partial pricing control • Low threat from substitutes Attractive opportunities • The North-East, which is witnessing a construction boom, offers attractive investment opportunities • Large planned investments in infrastructure and housing is likely to boost demand for cement in the coming years as well Increasing investments • Robust investments are being made by the existing players to expand their capacity • Increasing presence of Tier II cement players • Use of alternate fuels to lower production costs and emissions FY12 Production capacity: 247 million tonnes FY20E Production capacity: 407 million tonnes Advantage India
  • 5.
    Source: Cement Manufacturers’Association (CMA),Planning Commission, Aranca Research Note: mtpa - Million Tonnes Per Annum, * FY12 data Cement Industry (FY13) Mini And White Cement PlantsLarge Cement Plants • Cement plants: 185 • Installed capacity: 339.5 mtpa • Cement production: 168.3 mtpa* • Cement plants: 365 • Installed capacity: 11.1 mtpa • Cement production: 6.0 mtpa*
  • 6.
    Top Cement Consumersin 2011 (million tonnes) Source: International Cement Review, Aranca Research India is the 2nd largest cement producer as well as consumer in the world led by the enormous growth in the infrastructure and construction sector for the last two decades Top Cement Producer in 2011 (million tonnes) 2,048 229 72 65 58 56 56 50 49 48 China India USA Brazil Russia Iran Turkey Egypt Vietnam Indonesia 2,058 222 66 66 64 63 56 56 52 49 China India Iran USA Brazil Turkey Japan Russia Vietnam Indonesia
  • 7.
    Production of Cement(million tonnes) Source: Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion, Working group for 12th Five Year Plan, Aranca Research Notes: E - Estimate, CAGR - Compound Annual Growth Rate Cement production increased at a CAGR of 9.7 per cent to 272 million tonnes over FY06–13 As per the 12th Five Year Plan, production is expected to reach 407 million tonnes by FY17 142 156 168 182 207 229 247 272 300 332 368 407 FY06 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E FY16E FY17E CAGR:10.0%
  • 8.
    Domestic Cement Consumption(million tonnes) Source: Working group for 12th Five Year Plan, Aranca Research Notes: E – Estimate, CAGR - Compound Annual Growth Rate Domestic cement consumption is expected to reach 265 million tonnes in FY13 from 222 million tonnes in FY11 The consumption is further expected to increase at a CAGR of 10.2 per cent during FY11-17 and reach 398 million tonnes 222 242 265 293 324 359 398 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E FY16E FY17E CAGR:10.2%
  • 9.
    323 336 350 373 405 441 479 FY11 FY12 FY13EFY14E FY15E FY16E FY17E Cement Production Capacity (million tonnes) Source: Working group for 12th Five Year Plan, Aranca Research Notes: E - Estimate, CAGR - Compound Annual Growth Rate Cement production capacity reached 350 million tonnes in FY13 from 323 million tonnes in FY11 Production capacity is expected to increase at a CAGR of 6.8 per cent during FY11-17 and reach 479 million tonnes CAGR:6.8%
  • 10.
    Cement capacity (milliontonnes) and utilisation rate (%) Source: Working group for 12th Five Year Plan, Aranca Research Notes: E - Estimate, CAGR - Compound Annual Growth Rate Cement capacity utilisation rate is expected to touch around 78 per cent in FY13 from 71 per cent in FY11 The utilisation rate is expected to further reach 85 per cent by FY17 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E FY16E FY17E Capacity -LHS Production-LHS Utilisation rate (%)
  • 11.
    Source: Working groupfor 12th Five Year Plan, Aranca Research Currently, India has 185 large cement plants spread across all states Andhra Pradesh is the leading state with 37 large cement plants, followed by Rajasthan and Tamil Nadu having 21 and 19 plants, respectively 37 19 21 1112 11 10 10 11 5 5 4 8 3 3 5 3 2 2 1 1 1
  • 12.
    Source: Department ofIndustrial Policy and Promotion, Aranca Research Note: mtpa - Million Tonnes Per Annum Cement Industry South North East West Central 126.9 mtpa 66.4 mtpa 43.5 mtpa 44.1 mtpa 37.3 mtpa Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana and the NCR West Bengal, Chhattisgarh, Orissa and Jharkhand West Bengal, Chhattisgarh, Orissa and Jharkhand Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh Installed capacity (2011) Key markets
  • 13.
    Shares in TotalCapacity in Northern Region (2011) Source: International Cement Review, Aranca Research Rajasthan has the highest installed capacity in North India, accounting for a 66.5 per cent share in capacity in the region in 2011 Chhattisgarh leads the Eastern region with a share of 32.6 per cent of total installed capacity in the region in 2011 Shares in Total Capacity in Eastern Region (2011) 66.5% 14.2% 7.2% 6.0% 4.5% 0.8% 0.8% Rajasthan Himachal Pradesh Punjab Uttarakhand Haryana Jammu & Kashmir Delhi 0.5% 7.5% 2.3% 19.5% 20.8%16.8% 32.6% Assam Meghalaya Bihar Jharkhand Orissa West Bengal Chhattisgard
  • 14.
    Shares in totalcapacity in Southern region (2011) Source: International Cement Review, Aranca Research Andhra Pradesh has the highest installed capacity in South India (53.5 per cent share of total installed capacity) Madhya Pradesh leads the Central region in installed capacity, while Gujarat leads the West 53.5% 28.0% 18.0% 0.5% Andhra Pradesh Tamil Nadu Karnataka Kerala 34.4% 65.6% Uttar Pradesh Madhya Pradesh 55.0% 45.0% Gujarat Maharashtra Shares in total capacity in Central region (2011) Shares in total capacity in Western region (2011)
  • 15.
    All India (milliontonnes) Source: International Cement Review, Aranca Research Total demand for cement is expected to grow at a CAGR of 10.2 per cent to 265.9 million tonnes during FY08-13 Cement demand from the Eastern and Central regions during FY08-13 is expected to grow at a CAGR of 13.5 per cent and 12.1 per cent, respectively. Central (million tonnes) East (million tonnes) 163.4 177.5 196.4 210.2 236.3 265.9 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11F FY12F FY13F 23.8 26.2 30.8 34.3 38.2 42.0 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11F FY12F FY13F 24.7 28.0 33.0 37.3 41.7 46.6 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11F FY12F FY13F CAGR: 10.2% CAGR: 12.1% CAGR: 13.5%
  • 16.
    32.7 34.5 38.8 41.4 45.4 49.8 FY08 FY09 FY10FY11F FY12F FY13F 33.6 35.1 38.3 40.8 48.6 51.0 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11F FY12F FY13F 48.6 53.8 55.5 56.4 62.1 63.9 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11F FY12F FY13F South (million tonnes) Source: International Cement Review, Aranca Research Cement demand from Western, Northern and Southern regions is expected to grow at a CAGR of 8.8, 8.7 and 5.6 per cent, respectively, during FY08-13 North (million tonnes) West (million tonnes) CAGR: 5.6% CAGR: 8.7% CAGR: 8.8%
  • 17.
    All India Source: InternationalCement Review, Aranca Research UltraTech Cement, a major player in India, accounted for 15.0 per cent of the total market share in terms of installed capacity in 2011 It is a leading player in the Southern and Eastern regions, accounting for 50.6 and 52.1 per cent of total market share, respectively, in terms of installed capacity in 2011 South East 10.2% 5.9% 9.9% 8.3% 7.1% 8.0% 50.6% India Cement Madras Cement Ultratech Cement Chettinad Cement Dalmia Cement ACC Others 14.2% 6.2% 12.1% 9.8% 5.5% 52.1% Lafarge India ACC Ultratech OCL India Ltd Ambuja Cement Others 10.0% 7.5% 15.0% 1.4%66.1% Ambuja Cement ACC Ultratech Cement Jaypee Cement Others
  • 18.
    North Source: International CementReview, Aranca Research Jaypee Cement led the Central region in terms of installed capacity, with 33.5 per cent of the market share; the Western region was dominated by UltraTech cement with 29.0 per cent of market share in 2011 Ambuja Cements accounted for 28.9 per cent of the total market share in terms of installed capacity in the Northern region in 2011 Central West 28.9% 16.6% 14.2% 13.8% 11.1% 7.3% 5.5% 2.5% Ambuja Cement Shree Cement Others Ultratech Cement J K Cement ACC Jaypee Cement Birla Cement 33.5% 12.3% 12.1% 42.1% Jaypee Cement Ultratech Cement ACC Others 29.0% 10.9% 12.5% 47.6% Ultratech Cement Jaypee Cement Ambuja Cement Others
  • 19.
    Increasing presence of smalland mid-size cement players • Presence of small and mid-size cement players across regions is increasing, which helps to diminish market concentration of industry leaders • Small and mid-size players have been constantly increasing their installed capacity to cater to increasing cement demand Cost reduction through the use of alternate fuels ** • Major cement manufacturers in India are increasingly using alternate fuels, especially bioenergy, to fire their kilns • This is not only helping to reduce production costs of cement companies, but is also proving effective in reducing emissions Increasing sale of blended cement • The proportionate sales of blended varieties of cement—Portland Pozzolana Cement (PPC) and Portland Blast Furnace Slag Cement (PBFC)—has risen over the years • During 2011, blended cement accounted for 75 per cent of total cement production in the country Notes: ** The Success Stories section includes cases of successful employment of alternate fuels in cement production to reduce production costs
  • 20.
    ACC • Holcim, aSwitzerland-based major cement company has plans for capacity expansion in India through its subsidiary ACC cement • The construction of the company’s new plant at Jamul, Chhattisgarh is under process. This plant will increase ACC’s capacity to 35 million tonnes per annum (mtpa) from 30 mtpa in a phased manner by 2015 Ambuja Cements • Ambuja Cements is targeting an investment of USD370.4 million for capacity expansion in Rajasthan and Northern India • The proposed project in Rajasthan is expected to add 5 million tonnes (MT) to Ambuja Cements’ existing production capacity Dalmia Cement • Dalmia Cement is planning an investment of USD333.3 million to ramp up its manufacturing capacity to 21 mtpa from the existing 17 mtpa over the next two years. • Dalmia has plans to set up a 2.5 million tonne (MT) greenfield unit at Belgaum in Karnataka. It also plans to scale up its two plants in North-East India for a total value of USD239 million and USD9.2 million, respectively Source: Aranca Research
  • 21.
    Heidelberg Cement • HeidelbergCement, a Germany-based cement manufacturer has commissioned Phase-I of its Jhansi grinding unit • The company has undertaken an investment worth USD 259.4 million for expanding its capacity to 2.7 million tonnes (MT) • Heidelberg aims to ramp up the operational capacity to 6 MT at its Damoh plant in Madhya Pradesh Vicat Group • Vicat Group, a France-based company plans to sell 4.5 MT of cement in India in FY 2013 • The company has recently commissioned a joint venture cement plant Vicat Sagar Cement at Chattrasal, Karnataka, for a total value of USD333.3 million • Vicat Sagar will have a 2.8 MT of capacity in the first phase Amrit Cement • Amrit Cement India Ltd (ACIL) has announced the launch of Amrit Cement in the North- Eastern market. • The company plans to achieve a production level of 5 million tonnes per annum by 2015– 16 through capacity expansion in North-Eastern Bihar and Nepal Source: Aranca Research
  • 22.
    Source : ArancaResearch • High – Huge capital investments required present substantial barriers to entry and achieving economies of scale • Moderate – Cement players have to depend on the railways for carriage outward and local coal companies for fuel, although diversification of freight options and fuel sources is diminishing the suppliers’ power • Low – Substantial market concentration among large players ensures low bargaining power of buyers • Low – Cement, practically, has no substitutes • Low – The Indian cement market is oligopolistic in nature, characterised by tacit collusion, where large players partially control supply for better price discipline Positive Neutral PositivePositive Positive Market Attractiveness
  • 23.
    Source : McKinseyQuarterly Report, Aranca Research Housing Growth Infrastructure Growth Commercial Real Estate Growth • The Housing segment accounts for a major portion of the total domestic demand for cement in India • Real estate market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 17.2 per cent over 2011–15 to USD126 billion • Growing urbanisation, an increasing number of households and higher employment are primarily driving the demand for housing • Initiatives by the government are expected to provide an impetus to construction activity in rural and semi-urban areas through large infrastructure and housing development projects respectively • The government is strongly focused on infrastructure development to boost economic growth • It plans to increase investment in infrastructure to USD1 trillion in the 12th Five Year Plan (2012–17), compared with USD514 billion under the 11th Five Year Plan (2007–12) • Infrastructure projects such as Dedicated Freight Corridors as well as new and upgraded airports and ports are expected to further drive construction activity • The government intends to expand the capacity of the railways and the facilities for handling and storage to ease the transportation of cement and reduce transportation costs • The government is strongly focused on infrastructure development to boost economic growth • It plans to increase investment in infrastructure to USD1 trillion in the 12th Five Year Plan (2012–17), compared with USD514 billion under the 11th Five Year Plan (2007–12) • Infrastructure projects such as Dedicated Freight Corridors as well as new and upgraded airports and ports are expected to further drive construction activity • The government intends to expand the capacity of the railways and the facilities for handling and storage to ease the transportation of cement and reduce transportation costs
  • 24.
    Major cement demanddrivers (FY12) Source: Aranca Research Demand for cement is highly correlated with cyclical activities like construction and development Housing sector accounts for 64 per cent of the total cement demand Real estate market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 17.2 per cent during 2011–15 to USD126 billion The rapidly increasing real estate industry in India is expected to push the demand for cement Residential real estate demand is driven by rising population and growing urbanisation Rising income levels are leading to higher demand for luxury projects Demand for affordable housing is growing in order to meet the demand from lower income groups Commercial real estate demand will be driven by growth in IT/ITeS sector and organised retail 64% 17% 13% 6% Housing sector Infrastructure Commercial & Institutional Industrial
  • 25.
    Infrastructure Spending As% Of GDP Source: Working group for 12th Five Year Plan Notes: Additional capacity creation estimates are based on increase in base lines, roads, housing and fiscal support Investment in infrastructure is the main growth driver for the cement industry The Planning Commission estimates total infrastructure spending to be about of 10 per cent of the GDP during the 12th Five-Year Plan (2012–17), up from 7.6 per cent during the previous five-year plan (2007–12) India’s investment in infrastructure is estimated to double to about USD1 trillion during the 12th plan (2012–17) compared to the previous plan Infrastructure Spending in % during 11th And 12th Five-year Plan 75.7 69.4 89.5 101.6 101.9 157.4 181.2 206.0 233.5 264.4 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13E FY14E FY15E FY16E FY17E 5.2% 6.4% 7.2% 7.5% 7.9% 8.4% 7.6% 10.0% 10th Five year plan FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 11th Five year plan 12th Five year plan 12th Plan 11th Plan
  • 26.
    North Source: CMA, KotakInstitutional Equities, Aranca Research Note: F- Forecast South 82% 84% 88% FY11F FY12F FY13F 67% 68% 73% FY11F FY12F FY13F 81% 87% 91% FY11F FY12F FY13F East West Central All India 79% 77% 80% FY11F FY12F FY13F 90% 85% 87% FY11F FY12F FY13F 78% 77% 82% FY11F FY12F FY13F
  • 27.
    12.8 13.5 23.6 31.9 35.5 38.7 FY12 FY13E FY14EFY15E FY16E FY17E Capacity creation as per the 12th Five Year Plan (million tonnes) Source: Working group for 12th Five Year Plan Notes: Additional capacity creation estimates are based on increase in base lines, roads, housing and fiscal support, E - Estimates Total capacity of 336 million tonnes is estimated to have been generated in FY12 The strong momentum in capacity addition is not surprising given the sharp growth in construction, infrastructure and real estate in Indian economy Hence, the 12th Five Year Plan is estimated to have an additional capacity requirement of 156.0 million tonnes by FY17
  • 28.
    Strategy BenefitsCompany/Plant Madras Cement's Alathiyurplant India Cements Ltd's Dalavoi plant UltraTech's Gujarat Cement Works Lafarge's Arasmeta plant Use bioenergy through burning of coffee husk and cashew nut shells Use Low Sulphur Heavy Stock (LSHS) sludge as alternate fuel Use tyre chips and rubber dust as alternate fuel Substitute 10% of coal used in kilns with rice husk Annual cost savings of USD1.7 million Annual savings of USD6500 approx Reduction of about 30,000 tonnes of carbon emissions annually Higher energy savings and lower carbon emissions Source: CMA, Aranca Research
  • 29.
    Revenue and Profitafter Tax (PAT) in USD billion Source: Company Website (www.grasim.com, Aranca Research Notes: RMC – Ready-Mix Concrete UltraTech is India's largest exporter of cement clinker spanning export markets in countries across the Indian Ocean, Africa, Europe and the Middle East UltraTech and its subsidiaries have a presence in five countries through 11 integrated plants, one white cement plant, one clinkerisation plant, 15 grinding units, two rail and three coastal terminals, and 101 RMC plants It has an annual capacity of 52 MT Projects: Mumbai Metro, Bangalore Metro Rail, Kolkata Metro Rail, Monorail, Coastal Gujarat Power MILESTONES • 2004 – Acquisition of L&T’s Cement Business: UltraTech Cement Ltd • 2006 – Narmada Cement Company Limited amalgamated with UltraTech • 2010 – Samruddhi Cement Limited amalgamated with UltraTech Cement Limited • 2012 – Acquisition of Adhunik Cement’s Meghalaya plant 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.5 3.0 4.0 3.9 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.5 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 CAGR: 23.5%
  • 30.
    1.4 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.8 FY07FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 Revenue (USD billion) Source: Company Website, Aranca Research Note: mtpa – Million Tonnes Per Annum Ambuja Cements Ltd (ACL) is one of the leading cement manufacturing companies in India. The company, initially called Gujarat Ambuja Cements Ltd, was founded by Narotam Sekhsaria in 1983 Ambuja Cements is the second largest cement manufacturer in India, with nearly 10 per cent of the market share of total installed capacity It is the market leader in Northern India with 29 per cent of the total installed capacity MILESTONES • 2010 – Started cement plant at Nalagarh, Himachal Pradesh and Dadri, Uttar Pradesh with a capacity of 1.5 million tonnes • 2011 – Acquired 85 per cent stake in Nepal-based Dang Cement • 2012 – Expansion of Sankrail Grinding Unit, thereby increasing the capacity from 1.5 mtpa to 2.4 mtpa CAGR: 5.2%
  • 31.
    Source: Industry Sources,Aranca Research Note: mtpa - Million Tonnes Per Annum 5.2 3.0 Estimated Demand Available Supply NE India: Cement demand NE India: Cement supply NE India: Cement demand-supply gap Deficit of 2.2 mtpa • The North Eastern (NE) region has consistently been in cement deficit for several years • At present, cement demand in the NE is about 5.2 mtpa • Cement manufactured locally is inadequate to meet the local demand for cement • The deficit is met through cement purchased from other parts of India • High transportation costs cause the landed costs of cement to increase considerably
  • 32.
    NE States ProjectedGDP Growth at Constant Prices The Government has approved a package of fiscal incentives and other concessions for the North Eastern Region, namely the North East Industrial and Investment Policy, 2007, effective from 1 April, 2007 The major policy and fiscal initiatives are expected to catalyse infrastructure and industrial development in the region, spurring the demand for cement NE States Projected Per Capita Income Growth 10.0% 13.7% 16.4% XI 5-yr Plan XII 5-yr Plan XIII 5-yr Plan 8.6% 12.4% 15.2% XI 5-yr Plan XII 5-yr Plan XIII 5-yr Plan
  • 33.
    Cement Manufacturers' Association CMATower, A-2E, Sector 24 NOIDA – 201 301 Uttar Pradesh, India Phone: 91-120-2411955, 2411957, 2411958 Fax: 91-120-2411956 E-mail: cmand@vsnl.com Website: www.cmaindia.org/index.html
  • 34.
    Indian Concrete Institute OceanCrest 79, Third Main Road, Gandhi Nagar, Adyar, Chennai – 600 020 Phone: 91-44-24912602 Fax: 91-44-24455148 E-mail: ici3@vsnl.in, ici4@airtelmail.in, vj6314@gmail.com Website: www.indianconcreteinstitute.org National Council for Cement and Building Materials 34th Milestone, Delhi-Mathura Road, Ballabgarh – 121 004 Haryana, India Phone: 91-129-2242051/52/53/54/55/56; 4192222 Fax : 91-129-2242100; 2246175 E-mail: nccbm@vsnl.com; info@ncbindia.com
  • 35.
    CMA: Cement Manufacturers'Association GDP: Gross Domestic Product GoI: Government of India INR: Indian Rupee MTPA: Million tonnes per annum NE India: North-East India FY: Indian financial year (April to March) So FY10 implies April 2009 to March 2010 USD: US Dollar Wherever applicable, numbers have been rounded off to the nearest whole number
  • 36.
    Year INR equivalentof one USD 2004-05 44.95 2005-06 44.28 2006-07 45.28 2007-08 40.24 2008-09 45.91 2009-10 47.41 2010-11 45.57 2011-12 47.94 2012-13 54.31 Exchange Rates (Fiscal Year) Year INR equivalent of one USD 2005 45.55 2006 44.34 2007 39.45 2008 49.21 2009 46.76 2010 45.32 2011 45.64 2012 54.69 2013 54.45 Exchange Rates (Calendar Year) Average for the year
  • 37.
    India Brand EquityFoundation (“IBEF”) engaged Aranca to prepare this presentation and the same has been prepared by Aranca in consultation with IBEF. All rights reserved. All copyright in this presentation and related works is solely and exclusively owned by IBEF. The same may not be reproduced, wholly or in part in any material form (including photocopying or storing it in any medium by electronic means and whether or not transiently or incidentally to some other use of this presentation), modified or in any manner communicated to any third party except with the written approval of IBEF. This presentation is for information purposes only. While due care has been taken during the compilation of this presentation to ensure that the information is accurate to the best of Aranca and IBEF’s knowledge and belief, the content is not to be construed in any manner whatsoever as a substitute for professional advice. Aranca and IBEF neither recommend nor endorse any specific products or services that may have been mentioned in this presentation and nor do they assume any liability or responsibility for the outcome of decisions taken as a result of any reliance placed on this presentation. Neither Aranca nor IBEF shall be liable for any direct or indirect damages that may arise due to any act or omission on the part of the user due to any reliance placed or guidance taken from any portion of this presentation.