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11SEPTEMBER 2016
CEMENT
For updated information, please visit www.ibef.orgSEPTEMBER 2016
22SEPTEMBER 2016 For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org
 Executive Summary……….………..………. 3
 Advantage India……….…………………...… 4
 Market Overview and Trends…….……….…6
 Porters Five Forces Analysis ………..……19
 Strategies Adopted …………………….…..21
 Growth Drivers…………………….……….. 23
 Opportunities………………………………. 31
 Success Stories……………………………. 34
 Useful Information……………………….… 37
CEMENT
SEPTEMBER 2016
33SEPTEMBER 2016 For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Second largest cement
market
• With cement production capacity of nearly 366 million tonnes, as of 2015, India was the
second largest cement producer in the world. In 2016, country’s cement production
capacity is expected to reach 395 million tonnes, which is expected to further increase to
550 million tonnes by 2025.
Dominated by private
players
• Of the total capacity, 98 per cent lies with the private sector and the rest with public sector,
with the top 20 companies accounting for around 70 per cent of the total production
Higher share of large
plants
• 210 large cement plants account for a cumulative installed capacity of over 350 million
tonnes, while over 350 mini cement plants have an estimated production capacity of
nearly 11.10 million tonnes, as of 2016
Large concentration in
South and West
• Of the total 210 large cement plants in India, 77 are situated in the states of Andhra
Pradesh, Rajasthan and Tamil Nadu.
Source: Business Standard, Ministry of External Affairs, TechSci Research,
Ministry of External Affairs (Investment and Technology Promotion Division)
CEMENT
SEPTEMBER 2016
ADVANTAGE INDIA
CEMENT
55SEPTEMBER 2016
Growing demand
For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org
ADVANTAGE INDIA
Source: Ministry of External Affairs (Investment and Technology Promotion Division), DIPP, TechSci Research
Notes: E – Estimated
Long-term potential
• Oligopoly market, where large
players have partial pricing control
• Low threat from substitutes
• Improvement in the sector is
expected if government led projects
gets translated into execution mode.
2016E
Production
capacity:
395 million
tonnes
2025E
Production
capacity:
550 million
tonnes
Advantage
India
CEMENT
Attractive opportunities
• The North-East, which is witnessing
a construction boom, offers attractive
investment opportunities
• Large planned investments in
infrastructure and housing is likely
to boost demand for cement in the
coming years as well
Robust demand
• Robust infrastructure growth
during 12th Five Year Plan to drive
growth
• Demand is expected to be
boosted by growth in real estate
sector, initiative to build 100 smart
cities to give a further stimulus
Increasing investments
• Robust investments are being made
by the existing players to expand
their capacity
• FDI inflow in industry related to
manufacturing of Cement & Gypsum
products reached USD3.12 billion,
during April 2000 to March 2016
• Use of alternate fuels to lower
production costs and emissions
SEPTEMBER 2016
MARKET OVERVIEW
CEMENT
77SEPTEMBER 2016 For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org
OVERVIEW OF THE INDIAN CEMENT INDUSTRY
Source: Cement Manufacturers’ Association (CMA), TechSci Research
Notes: mtpa - Million Tonnes Per Annum, mt – Million Tonnes
1 Indicated (April 2014-March 2015)
CEMENT
Cement industry
(FY15)
Mini and white cement plantsLarge cement plants
• Cement plants: 210
• Installed capacity: 378.3 mtpa
• Cement production: 270.3 mt1
• Cement plants: 365
• Installed capacity: 11.7 mtpa
• Cement production: 33.66 mt
88SEPTEMBER 2016 For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org
INDIA – WORLD’S 2ND LARGEST CEMENT PLAYER
Top cement producers in FY161,
(million tonnes)
Source: International Cement Review,
USGS Mineral Resources Report, TechSci Research
Note: FY161 – As on August 2015, India2 – As of June 2015,
USA – United Sates of America
India is the 2nd largest cement producer as well as consumer in the world led by the enormous growth in the infrastructure
and construction sector for the last two decades
As of August 2015, cement production in India accounted for around 6.7 per cent of overall global cement output
Top cement consumers in FY16,
(million tonnes)
CEMENT2483.18
285.83
80.36
77.95
74.32
72.57
71.63
67.39
66.81
55.35
China
India
USA
Iran
Indonesia
Brazil
Turkey
Russia
Vietnam
Japan
2511
280
93 78 73 11
China India USA Brazil Russia Spain2
99SEPTEMBER 2016 For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org
INDIA’S PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION WILL SET TO RISE
Cement consumption growth by region YoY (%),
2015E
Source: International Cement Review, TechSci Research,
Ministry of External Affairs
(Investment and Technology Promotion Division)
Note: PPP – Purchase Power Parity
India1 - As of March 2015; E-Estimated
As India’s current per capita consumption of cement (190 kg as of March 2015) is much lesser than the developed and other
developing economies, there is a significant business opportunity to cater to the unmet and rising demand
In order to meet the rising demand, cement companies are expected to pent up production by around 56 MT in the next
three years
Cement intensity, As of 2014 ended (grams per
USD of PPP GDP)
CEMENT
Source: International Cement Review, TechSci Research
1.7
3.5
4.1
6.2
3.5
5.1
7.1
2.1
6.8
0.6
5.1
-4.1
WesternEurope
EasternEurope
FormerSovietUnion
NorthAmerica
LatinAmerica
MENA
Sub-SaharanAfrica
China
India
NorthAsia
SouthAsia
Australia/Pacific
197
110
93
74 59 56 53 51 47 43 42 41 37
China
South
Korea
Turkey
Italy
Iran
Mexico
Japan
Malaysia
India
Indonesia
Colombia
Chile
Brazil
1
1010SEPTEMBER 2016 For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org
Production of cement (million tonnes)
Source: Department of Industrial Policy & Promotion, Office of the Economic Advisor, TechSci Research
Notes: E – Estimated
Cement production increased at a CAGR of 6.44 per cent to 282.79 million tonnes over FY07–16
As per the 12th Five Year Plan, production is expected to reach 407 million tonnes by FY17
Availability of fly-ash (from thermal power plants) and use of advance technology has increased production of blended cement
The environment-friendly blended cement is more cost-efficient to produce, as it requires lesser input of clinker and energy
CEMENT PRODUCTION IN INDIA HAS BEEN GROWING AT A FAST PACE
CEMENT
CAGR: 9.7%
161.30
174.30
186.90
206.60
216.00
230.50
248.20
255.80
270.30
282.79
407
FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E
1111SEPTEMBER 2016 For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org
Domestic cement consumption (million tonnes)
Source: CMA, CMIE Database, TechSci Research
Notes: E – Estimate, CAGR - Compound Annual Growth Rate
Domestic cement consumption is to reach 280 million
tonnes in FY15 from 165.63 million tonnes in FY11
The consumption is further expected to increase at a CAGR
of 15.7 per cent during FY11-17 and reach 398 million
tonnes
Demand will be supported by infrastructure development in
tier 2 and tier 3 cities
The country’s per capita consumption is around 190 kg as
of 2015, compared to the world average of over 350 kg per
capita, which shows great potential for growth
The cement consumption growth rate in the country has
witnessed a decline from 9.56 per cent in 2001 – 02 to 5.50
per cent in 2014 – 15
DOMESTIC CEMENT CONSUMPTION IN INDIA ON AN UPTREND
CEMENT
CAGR: 15.7%
165.63
223.67
238.05
248.7
280
359
398
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E
1212SEPTEMBER 2016
323 336.1 349.6 366
390 395
479
550
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY20E
For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org
Cement production capacity (million tonnes)
Source: The Economic Times, Business Standard, Ministry of External Affairs,
TechSci Research
Notes: E - Estimate, CAGR - Compound Annual Growth Rate
Cement production capacity increased from 323 million
tonnes in FY11 to 390 million tonnes in FY15
Production capacity is expected to increase at a CAGR of
6.1 per cent during FY11-20E and reach 550 million tonnes
CAPACITY TO EXPAND GOING FORWARD
CEMENT
CAGR: 6.1%
1313SEPTEMBER 2016
323
336.1
349.6
366
390
395
215.98
230.49
248.23
255.83
270.3
282.8
68%
69%
70%
71%
72%
73%
74%
75%
76%
77%
78%
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16
Capacity Cement Production Utilization Rate (%)
For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org
Cement capacity (million tonnes) and
utilisation rate (%)
Source: ACC Limited Corporate Presentation, TechSci Research
Notes: E - Estimate, CAGR - Compound Annual Growth Rate
1 – Cement Capacity has been estimated for FY16
Cement capacity utilisation rate is expected to touch
around 75 per cent in FY16E from 77 per cent in FY11
The utilisation rate in FY15 was 73 per cent
CAPACITY UTILISATION RATE TO GROW DURING 12TH FIVE YEAR PLAN
CEMENT
1
1414SEPTEMBER 2016 For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org
Currently, India has 210 large cement plants across states
and is among the top ten exporters both by value and
volume
Andhra Pradesh is the leading state with 40 large cement
plants, followed by Tamil Nadu and Rajasthan having 21
and 20 plants, respectively
Major cement clusters include - Satna (Madhya Pradesh),
Gulbarga (Karnataka), Yerranguntla (Andhra Pradesh),
Nalgonda (Andhra Pradesh) and Chandoria (Rajasthan)
LARGE CEMENT PLANTS IN INDIA
CEMENT
2
3
1
45
8
6
7
9
13
11
10
12
17
14
16
15
20
19
18
21
Source: Cement Manufacturer’s Association (CMA), TechSci Research
1515SEPTEMBER 2016 For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org
Source: Indian Minerals Year Book by Indian Bureau of Mines, TechSci Research
Notes: mtpa - Million Tonnes Per Annum, E- Estimates
THE INDUSTRY IS SPLIT INTO FIVE GEOGRAPHIC SEGMENTS
CEMENT
Cement
industry
South
North
East
West
Central
132.7 mtpa
85.6 mtpa
49.4 mtpa
57.6 mtpa
52.8 mtpa
Tamil Nadu, Andhra
Pradesh and Karnataka
Rajasthan, Punjab,
Haryana and the NCR
West Bengal,
Chhattisgarh, Orissa and
Jharkhand
West Bengal,
Chhattisgarh, Orissa and
Jharkhand
Uttar Pradesh, Madhya
Pradesh
Installed capacity (FY15E) Key markets
1616SEPTEMBER 2016 For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org
Increasing presence of
cement players
• Presence of small and mid-size cement players across regions is increasing, which helps
to diminish market concentration of industry leaders
• A large number of foreign players have also entered the market owing to the profit
margins, constant demand and right valuation .
• Cement companies will go for the global listings either through the FCCB route or the
GDR route
Tie – up with overseas
• India has joined hands with Switzerland to reduce energy consumption and develop newer
methods in the country for more efficient cement production, which would help India meet
its rising demand for cement in the infrastructure sector
Housing for All
• The Union Budget 2016 – 17 has been favourable for the infrastructure sector, mainly for
roads, which would eventually influence the cement industry of the country.
• In the budget, the GOI, allocated a total of USD8.22 billion for the development of roads &
highways of India, bracing the cement industry of India.
• Housing sector is considered to drive the cement industries in India to a great extent,
which held nearly 67 per cent of the total cement consumption in India.
Source: Union Budget 2016 – 17, Emkay Global Financial Services
Note: GOI – Government of India
NOTABLE TRENDS IN THE CEMENT INDUSTRY
CEMENT
1717SEPTEMBER 2016 For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org
ACC
• The subsidiary of Holcim, has plans for a USD500 million capacity expansion in India
• ACC will upgrade and expand its Jamul unit in Chattisgarh and its grinding unit in
Jharkhand. This will increase ACC’s capacity to 38 mtpa from 30 mtpa in a phased
manner by 2016 and 55 mtpa in 2020
Ambuja Cements
• Ambuja Cements is targeting an investment of USD580 million for capacity expansion in
Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh
• The proposed project in Rajasthan is expected to add 5 MT to Ambuja Cements’ existing
production capacity of 28.5 mtpa
Dalmia Cement
• Dalmia Cement is planning an investment of USD333.3 million to ramp up its
manufacturing capacity to 21 mtpa from the existing 17 mtpa over the next two years.
• Dalmia has started up its operation at its new 2.5 MT greenfield unit at Belgaum in
Karnataka. It also plans to scale up its two plants in North-East India for a total value of
USD239 million and USD9.2 million, respectively
Source: TechSci Research
Note: mtpa – million tonnes per annum
MT – Million Tonnes
CAPACITY EXPANSION PLANS BY KEY PLAYERS ... (1/2)
CEMENT
Shree Cement
• In 2016, Shree Cement announced to spend around USD0.9 billion to establish three new
clinker plants.
• With the expansion, the production capacity of the company would increase from 23.6
mtpa to 33.6 mtpa
1818SEPTEMBER 2016 For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org
Heidelberg Cement
• Heidelberg Cement, a Germany-based cement manufacturer has commissioned Phase-I
of its Jhansi grinding unit
• The company has undertaken an investment worth USD259.4 million for expanding its
capacity to 2.9 MT
• Heidelberg aims to ramp up the operational capacity to 6 MT at its Damoh plant in Madhya
Pradesh, striving to add an additional 9 MT by 2017
UltraTech Cement
• After the acquisition of two cement plants in 2015, UltraTech has planned to construct two
greenfield grinding units in West Bengal and Bihar.
• After the acquisition, the installed capacity of the company has reached 67mtpa. The
capacity is likely to reach 71 mtpa, after the completion of expansion.
Amrit Cement
• Amrit Cement India Ltd (ACIL) has announced the launch of Amrit Cement in the North-
Eastern market
• The company plans to achieve a production level of 5 million tonnes per annum by FY16,
through capacity expansion in North-Eastern Bihar and Nepal
Source: TechSci Research
Note: mtpa – million tonnes per annum
MT – Million Tonnes
CAPACITY EXPANSION PLANS BY KEY PLAYERS ... (2/2)
CEMENT
Emami Cement
• Emami Cement, a renowned brand of Emami Group, announced expansion plans with an
investment of about USD74.7 million in 2016.
• The company has declared to set up a cement grinding plant in West Bengal and is also
planning to build two other units in Andhra Pradesh and Rajasthan.
SEPTEMBER 2016
PORTERS FIVE FORCES ANALYSIS
CEMENT
2020SEPTEMBER 2016
CONDUCIVE INDUSTRY FORCES SUPPORT LONG-TERM ATTRACTIVENESS
For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org
Source: TechSci Research
• High – Huge capital investments required present substantial
barriers to entry and achieving economies of scale
• Moderate – Cement players have to
depend on the railways for carriage
outward and local coal companies
for fuel, although diversification of
freight options and fuel sources is
diminishing the suppliers’ power
• Low – Substantial market
concentration among large players
ensures low bargaining power of
buyers
• Low – Although there are
partial substitutes such as
asphalt, glass, steel, wood,
etc; practically cement has
no direct substitutes
• Low – The Indian cement market
is oligopolistic in nature,
characterised by tacit collusion,
where large players partially
control supply for better price
discipline
Positive
Neutral
PositivePositive
Positive
Market
attractiveness
CEMENT
SEPTEMBER 2016
STRATEGIES ADOPTED
CEMENT
2222SEPTEMBER 2016 For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org
STRATEGIES ADOPTED
CEMENT
Source: Ministry of External Affairs, HDFC Bank Annual Report
• The Government of India has decided to adopt cement instead of bitumen for the
construction of all new road projects on the grounds that cement is more durable and
cheaper to maintain than bitumen in the long run
• The Schedule Rate of Clean Energy Cess, levied on coal is being increased from Rs. 100
per tonne to Rs. 300 per tonne
• The increase in the clean energy cess may lead to rise of power and fuel cost in the
cement companies
• Companies are trying to develop a niche market for RMC (Ready Mix Concrete)
• Penetration of RMC has been low at about 8 per cent (USA: 88 per cent; China: 33 per
cent; Brazil: 32 per cent) because retail sales comprise mostly of bag cement
Adoption of cement
instead of Bitumen
Increase in Clean
Energy Cess
Ready-mix concrete
SEPTEMBER 2016
GROWTH DRIVERS
CEMENT
2424SEPTEMBER 2016
STRONG DEMAND DRIVERS IN THE NEAR TERM
For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org
Source: McKinsey Quarterly Report, TechSci Research, Ministry of External Affairs (Investment and Technology Promotion Division)
CEMENT
Housing growth Infrastructure growth Commercial real estate growth
• The Housing segment accounts for a
major portion of the total domestic
demand for cement in India
• Real estate market is expected to
grow at a CAGR of 11.6 per cent over
2011–20, with the market expected to
reach USD180 billion by 2020
• Growing urbanisation, an increasing
number of households and higher
employment are primarily driving the
demand for housing, accounting for 67
per cent of the total consumption
• Initiatives by the government are
expected to provide an impetus to
construction activity in rural and semi-
urban areas through large
infrastructure and housing
development projects respectively
• The government is strongly focused
on infrastructure development to boost
economic growth and is aiming for 100
smart cities
• It plans to increase investment in
infrastructure to USD1 trillion in the
12th Five Year Plan (2012–17),
compared with USD514 billion under
the 11th Five Year Plan (2007–12)
• Infrastructure projects such as
Dedicated Freight Corridors as well as
new and upgraded airports and ports
are expected to further drive
construction activity,
• The government intends to expand the
capacity of the railways and the
facilities for handling and storage to
ease the transportation of cement and
reduce transportation costs
• The government is strongly focused
on infrastructure development to boost
economic growth
• It plans to increase investment in
infrastructure to USD1 trillion in the
12th Five Year Plan (2012–17),
compared with USD514 billion under
the 11th Five Year Plan (2007–12)
• Infrastructure projects such as
Dedicated Freight Corridors as well as
new and upgraded airports and ports
are expected to further drive
construction activity
• The government intends to expand the
capacity of the railways and the
facilities for handling and storage to
ease the transportation of cement and
reduce transportation costs
2525SEPTEMBER 2016
STRONG DEMAND DRIVERS IN THE NEAR TERM
For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org
Source: McKinsey Quarterly Report, TechSci Research, Ministry of External Affairs (Investment and Technology Promotion Division)
CEMENT
Government Initiatives towards New
Schemes
Development in Metro, Roads,
Airports
• Initiatives by the new government
such as housing for all, smart cities,
Swachh Bharat campaign,
infrastructure spending, concrete
roads initiative and an increase in
allocation of funds to states are likely
to see a positive impact on the
industry in the next three-six months.
• The government’s recent focus on
road projects and an increase in state
allocations will drive infrastructure and
housing demand which will indeed
drive the market for cement industry
• Projects like smart cities and Atal
Mission for Rejuvenation and Urban
Transformation (AMRUT) is expected
to lead a surge in the demand for
cement.
• The metro rail projects in Mumbai,
Bangalore and Hyderabad and the
expansion phase in Delhi drives
cement demand
• Airports modernisation across major
cities will also expand demand for
cement industry
• The latest development in the
Ahmedabad Metro Rail Project has
also driven the cement demand to a
large extent.
Urbanisation and industrialisation
development in the country
• The new urban development mission
will focus on development of 500 cities
having population of more than
100,000 and some cities of religious
and tourist importance.
• Infrastructure is a priority for the
government’s economic policy;
funding from private as well as public
sectors is set to increase sharply in
the near term which would anticipate
the demand of cement industry in
India.
2626SEPTEMBER 2016 For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org
Major cement demand drivers (FY15)
Source: TechSci Research, Ministry of External Affairs
(Investment and Technology Promotion Division),
1 Cement Vision 2025, AT Kearney
Demand for cement is highly correlated with cyclical
activities like construction and development
Housing sector accounts for a significant 67 per cent of the
total cement demand (USA: 22 per cent; China: 25 per cent;
Brazil 56 per cent)1
Real estate market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 17.2
per cent during 2011–15 to USD126 billion. It is anticipated
to reach USD180 billion by 2020.
The rapidly increasing real estate industry in India is
expected to push the demand for cement
Residential real estate demand is driven by rising
population and growing urbanisation
Rising income levels are leading to higher demand
for luxury projects
Demand for affordable housing is growing in order to
meet the demand from lower income groups
Commercial real estate demand will be driven by growth in
IT/ITeS sector and organised retail
HOUSING SECTOR LEAD IN CEMENT DEMAND
CEMENT
67%
13%
11%
9%
Housing Sector
Infrastructure
Commercial
Industrial
2727SEPTEMBER 2016 For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org
INVESTMENT IN INFRASTRUCTURE DRIVING SECTOR’S GROWTH
Infrastructure spending as % of GDP
Source: CMIE Database, TechSci Research
Note: Additional capacity creation estimates are based on increase in base lines, roads, housing and fiscal support
Investment in infrastructure is the main growth driver for the cement industry
The NITI Aayog estimates total infrastructure spending to be about of 9 per cent of GDP during the 12th Five Year Plan
(2012-17), up from 7.2 per cent during the previous plan (2007-12)
India’s investment in infrastructure is estimated to double to about USD1 trillion during the 12th Five Year Plan (2012–17)
compared to the previous plan
Infrastructure spending in % during 11th
and 12th Five Year Plan
CEMENT
12th Plan
11th Plan
75.7
69.4
89.5
101.6
101.9
157.4
181.2
173.8
210.6
260.2
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17
9.00%
7.20%
9.00%
8.40%
7.90%
7.60%
7.40%
8.40%
7.90%
7.50%
7.20%
6.40%
5.2%
12th Five Year Plan
11th Five Year Plan
FY17
FY16
FY15
FY14
FY13
FY12
FY11
FY10
FY09
FY08
10th Five Year Plan
2828SEPTEMBER 2016 For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org
North
Source: CMA (Cement Manufacturers Association), Centrum Report, TechSci Research
Note: F- Forecast,
UTILISATION RATES ESTIMATED TO IMPROVE
CEMENT
South East
West Central All India
78%
80%
86%
FY14 FY16F FY17F
56%
61%
67%
FY14 FY16F FY17F
75%
71%
81%
FY14 FY16F FY17F
73% 73%
84%
FY14 FY16F FY17F
78%
81%
90%
FY14 FY16F FY17F
71%
75%
85%
FY14 FY16F FY17F
2929SEPTEMBER 2016 For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org
Capacity creation as per the 12th Five Year Plan
(million tonnes)
Source: DIPP (Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion)
Notes: Additional capacity creation estimates are based on
increase in base lines, roads, housing and fiscal support,
E – Estimates
Total cement production capacity in India stood at 395
million in FY16
The strong momentum in capacity addition is not surprising
given the sharp growth in construction, infrastructure and
real estate in Indian economy
Hence, the 12th Five Year Plan is estimated to have an
additional capacity requirement of 139.7 million tonnes by
FY17
The total FDI in cement and gypsum industry reached
USD3.11 billion, between April 2000-March 2016
… CAPACITY ADDITIONS ALSO ON THE CARDS
CEMENT
10
35.3
65.5
101
139.7
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E
3030SEPTEMBER 2016 For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org
CASES OF SUCCESSFUL USE OF ALTERNATE FUELS IN CEMENT PRODUCTION
CEMENT
Strategy BenefitsCompany/Plant
Madras Cement's
Alathiyur plant
India Cements Ltd's
Dalavoi plant
UltraTech's Gujarat
Cement Works
Lafarge's Arasmeta
plant
Use bioenergy through
burning of coffee husk
and cashew nut shells
Use Low Sulphur Heavy
Stock (LSHS) sludge as
alternate fuel
Use tyre chips and
rubber dust as alternate
fuel
Substitute 10 per cent of
coal used in kilns with
rice husk
Annual cost savings of USD1.7 million
Annual savings of USD6,500 approx
Reduction of about 30,000 tonnes of
carbon emissions annually
Higher energy savings and lower
carbon emissions
Source: CMA, TechSci Research
SEPTEMBER 2016
OPPORTUNITIES
CEMENT
3232SEPTEMBER 2016 For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org
NORTH-EAST INDIA: A LAND OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR CEMENT FIRMS
Source: Industry Sources, TechSci Research
Note: mtpa - Million Tonnes Per Annum
CEMENT
5.2
3.0
Estimated Demand Available Supply
NE India: Cement demand NE India: Cement supply
NE India: Cement demand-supply (2011)
Deficit of 2.2 mtpa
• The North Eastern (NE) region has
consistently been in cement deficit for
several years
• At present, cement demand in the NE is
about 5.2 mtpa
• Cement manufactured locally is inadequate
to meet the local demand for cement
• The deficit is met through cement
purchased from other parts of India
• High transportation costs cause the landed
costs of cement to increase considerably
3333SEPTEMBER 2016 For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org
NORTH-EAST INDIA: DEMAND DRIVERS FOR CEMENT
NE states projected GDP growth at
constant prices
The Government has approved a package of fiscal incentives and other concessions for the North Eastern Region, namely
the North East Industrial and Investment Policy, 2007, effective from 1 April, 2007
The major policy and fiscal initiatives are expected to catalyse infrastructure and industrial development in the region,
spurring the demand for cement
Dungsam Cement, A Bhutan-based player, is entering the Indian market, targeting mainly North-East market
NE states projected per capita income
growth
CEMENT
10.0%
13.7%
16.4%
XI 5-yr Plan XII 5-yr Plan XIII 5-yr Plan
8.6%
12.4%
15.2%
XI 5-yr Plan XII 5-yr Plan XIII 5-yr Plan
SEPTEMBER 2016
SUCCESS STORIES
CEMENT
3535SEPTEMBER 2016 For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org
Revenue and Profit After Tax (PAT) in USD billion
Source: Company website, TechSci Research
Notes: RMC – Ready Mix Concrete
PAT – Profit after tax
UltraTech is India's largest exporter of cement clinker
spanning export markets in countries across the Indian
Ocean, Africa, Europe and the Middle East
UltraTech and its subsidiaries have a presence in five
countries through 12 integrated plants, 1 white cement
plant, one clinkerisation plant, 17 grinding units, two rail and
three coastal terminals, and 101 RMC plants
It has an annual capacity of 64 MT
Projects: Mumbai Metro, Bangalore Metro Rail, Kolkata
Metro Rail, Monorail, Coastal Gujarat Power
ULTRATECH CEMENT: A COMPELLING GROWTH STORY
CEMENT
Milestones
• 2004 – Acquisition of L&T’s Cement Business: UltraTech Cement Ltd
• 2006 – Narmada Cement Company Limited amalgamated with
UltraTech
• 2010 – Samruddhi Cement Limited amalgamated with UltraTech
Cement Limited
• 2012 – Acquisition of Adhunik Cement’s Meghalaya plant
• 2013 – Buys Jaypee Cement’s Gujarat unit
• 2015 – Commissioned 6000 TPD Clinkerisation line at Aditya Cement,
(Rajasthan)
• 2016 – Greenfield & Brownfield expansion. Capacity: 67.7 mtpa
(including 3 mtpa overseas)
1.4 1.4 1.4
2.8
3.6
3.9
3.6
4.0 4.0
0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.30
FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16
Revenue PAT
3636SEPTEMBER 2016 For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org
Revenue and Profit After Tax (PAT) in USD billion
Source: Company website, TechSci Research
Notes: mtpa – Million Tonnes Per Annum
PAT – Profit after tax
20161 indicates data from January 2016 – March 2016
Ambuja Cements Ltd (ACL) is one of the leading cement
manufacturing companies in India.
The company, initially called Gujarat Ambuja Cements Ltd,
was founded by Narotam Sekhsaria in 1983
Ambuja Cements is the second largest cement
manufacturer in India, with nearly 10 per cent of the market
share of total installed capacity
It is the market leader in Northern India with 29 per cent of
the total installed capacity
AMBUJA CEMENT: ON A HIGH GROWTH PATH
CEMENT
Milestones
• 2010 – Started cement plant at Nalagarh, Himachal Pradesh and
Dadri, Uttar Pradesh with a capacity of 1.5 million tonnes
• 2011 – Acquired 85 per cent stake in Nepal-based Dang Cement
• 2012 – Expansion of Sankrail Grinding Unit, thereby increasing the
capacity from 1.5 mtpa to 2.4 mtpa
• 2013 – Acquiring Holderind Investments Ltd, Mauritius (Holcim),
These transactions will result in Ambuja holding 50.01 per cent
stake in ACC
• 2015 – Ambuja Cement becomes the leading water positive cement
company in India with 4.03 times water positive factor
1.5 1.5
1.7
1.9 1.9
1.6
1.7
1.5
0.40.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2
0.1
0.05
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Revenue PAT
1
SEPTEMBER 2016
USEFUL INFORMATION
CEMENT
3838SEPTEMBER 2016
INDUSTRY ASSOCIATIONS
Cement Manufacturers' Association
CMA Tower, A-2E, Sector 24 NOIDA – 201 301
Uttar Pradesh, India
Phone: 91-120-2411955, 2411957, 2411958
Fax: 91-120-2411956
E-mail: cmand@vsnl.com
Website: www.cmaindia.org/index.html
For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org
CEMENT
3939SEPTEMBER 2016
BODIES PROMOTING INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENT
Indian Concrete Institute
Ocean Crest 79, Third Main Road, Gandhi Nagar, Adyar, Chennai – 600 020
Phone: 91-44-24912602
Fax: 91-44-24455148
E-mail: ici3@vsnl.in, ici4@airtelmail.in, vj6314@gmail.com
Website: www.indianconcreteinstitute.org
National Council for Cement and Building Materials
34th Milestone, Delhi-Mathura Road, Ballabgarh – 121 004 Haryana, India
Phone: 91-129-2242051/52/53/54/55/56; 4192222
Fax: 91-129-2242100; 2246175
E-mail: nccbm@vsnl.com; info@ncbindia.com
For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org
CEMENT
4040SEPTEMBER 2016
GLOSSARY
For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org
CMA: Cement Manufacturers' Association
GDP: Gross Domestic Product
GoI: Government of India
INR: Indian Rupee
MTPA: Million Tonnes Per Annum
NE India: North-East India
FY: Indian Financial Year (April to March)
So FY10 implies April 2009 to March 2010
USD: US Dollar
Wherever applicable, numbers have been rounded off to the nearest whole number
CEMENT
4141SEPTEMBER 2016
Exchange rates (Fiscal Year)
For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org
EXCHANGE RATES
Exchange rates (Calendar Year)
CEMENT
Source: Reserve bank of India,
Average for the year
Year INR equivalent of one USD
2004–05 44.81
2005–06 44.14
2006–07 45.14
2007–08 40.27
2008–09 46.14
2009–10 47.42
2010–11 45.62
2011–12 46.88
2012–13 54.31
2013–14 60.28
2014-15 61.06
2015-16 65.46
2016-17 (E) 66.95
Year INR equivalent of one USD
2005 43.98
2006 45.18
2007 41.34
2008 43.62
2009 48.42
2010 45.72
2011 46.85
2012 53.46
2013 58.44
2014 61.03
2015 64.15
2016 (Expected) 67.22
4242SEPTEMBER 2016
India Brand Equity Foundation (“IBEF”) engaged TechSci to prepare this presentation and the same has been
prepared by TechSci in consultation with IBEF.
All rights reserved. All copyright in this presentation and related works is solely and exclusively owned by IBEF. The
same may not be reproduced, wholly or in part in any material form (including photocopying or storing it in any
medium by electronic means and whether or not transiently or incidentally to some other use of this presentation),
modified or in any manner communicated to any third party except with the written approval of IBEF.
This presentation is for information purposes only. While due care has been taken during the compilation of this
presentation to ensure that the information is accurate to the best of TechSci and IBEF’s knowledge and belief, the
content is not to be construed in any manner whatsoever as a substitute for professional advice.
TechSci and IBEF neither recommend nor endorse any specific products or services that may have been mentioned in
this presentation and nor do they assume any liability or responsibility for the outcome of decisions taken as a result of
any reliance placed on this presentation.
Neither TechSci nor IBEF shall be liable for any direct or indirect damages that may arise due to any act or omission
on the part of the user due to any reliance placed or guidance taken from any portion of this presentation.
For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org
DISCLAIMER
CEMENT
4343SEPTEMBER 2016
India Brand Equity Foundation (“IBEF”) engaged TechSci to prepare this presentation and the same has been
prepared by TechSci in consultation with IBEF.
All rights reserved. All copyright in this presentation and related works is solely and exclusively owned by IBEF. The
same may not be reproduced, wholly or in part in any material form (including photocopying or storing it in any
medium by electronic means and whether or not transiently or incidentally to some other use of this presentation),
modified or in any manner communicated to any third party except with the written approval of IBEF.
This presentation is for information purposes only. While due care has been taken during the compilation of this
presentation to ensure that the information is accurate to the best of TechSci and IBEF’s knowledge and belief, the
content is not to be construed in any manner whatsoever as a substitute for professional advice.
TechSci and IBEF neither recommend nor endorse any specific products or services that may have been mentioned in
this presentation and nor do they assume any liability or responsibility for the outcome of decisions taken as a result of
any reliance placed on this presentation.
Neither TechSci nor IBEF shall be liable for any direct or indirect damages that may arise due to any act or omission
on the part of the user due to any reliance placed or guidance taken from any portion of this presentation.
For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org
DISCLAIMER
CEMENT

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Cement Sectoral Report - September 2016

  • 1. 11SEPTEMBER 2016 CEMENT For updated information, please visit www.ibef.orgSEPTEMBER 2016
  • 2. 22SEPTEMBER 2016 For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org  Executive Summary……….………..………. 3  Advantage India……….…………………...… 4  Market Overview and Trends…….……….…6  Porters Five Forces Analysis ………..……19  Strategies Adopted …………………….…..21  Growth Drivers…………………….……….. 23  Opportunities………………………………. 31  Success Stories……………………………. 34  Useful Information……………………….… 37 CEMENT SEPTEMBER 2016
  • 3. 33SEPTEMBER 2016 For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Second largest cement market • With cement production capacity of nearly 366 million tonnes, as of 2015, India was the second largest cement producer in the world. In 2016, country’s cement production capacity is expected to reach 395 million tonnes, which is expected to further increase to 550 million tonnes by 2025. Dominated by private players • Of the total capacity, 98 per cent lies with the private sector and the rest with public sector, with the top 20 companies accounting for around 70 per cent of the total production Higher share of large plants • 210 large cement plants account for a cumulative installed capacity of over 350 million tonnes, while over 350 mini cement plants have an estimated production capacity of nearly 11.10 million tonnes, as of 2016 Large concentration in South and West • Of the total 210 large cement plants in India, 77 are situated in the states of Andhra Pradesh, Rajasthan and Tamil Nadu. Source: Business Standard, Ministry of External Affairs, TechSci Research, Ministry of External Affairs (Investment and Technology Promotion Division) CEMENT
  • 5. 55SEPTEMBER 2016 Growing demand For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org ADVANTAGE INDIA Source: Ministry of External Affairs (Investment and Technology Promotion Division), DIPP, TechSci Research Notes: E – Estimated Long-term potential • Oligopoly market, where large players have partial pricing control • Low threat from substitutes • Improvement in the sector is expected if government led projects gets translated into execution mode. 2016E Production capacity: 395 million tonnes 2025E Production capacity: 550 million tonnes Advantage India CEMENT Attractive opportunities • The North-East, which is witnessing a construction boom, offers attractive investment opportunities • Large planned investments in infrastructure and housing is likely to boost demand for cement in the coming years as well Robust demand • Robust infrastructure growth during 12th Five Year Plan to drive growth • Demand is expected to be boosted by growth in real estate sector, initiative to build 100 smart cities to give a further stimulus Increasing investments • Robust investments are being made by the existing players to expand their capacity • FDI inflow in industry related to manufacturing of Cement & Gypsum products reached USD3.12 billion, during April 2000 to March 2016 • Use of alternate fuels to lower production costs and emissions
  • 7. 77SEPTEMBER 2016 For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org OVERVIEW OF THE INDIAN CEMENT INDUSTRY Source: Cement Manufacturers’ Association (CMA), TechSci Research Notes: mtpa - Million Tonnes Per Annum, mt – Million Tonnes 1 Indicated (April 2014-March 2015) CEMENT Cement industry (FY15) Mini and white cement plantsLarge cement plants • Cement plants: 210 • Installed capacity: 378.3 mtpa • Cement production: 270.3 mt1 • Cement plants: 365 • Installed capacity: 11.7 mtpa • Cement production: 33.66 mt
  • 8. 88SEPTEMBER 2016 For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org INDIA – WORLD’S 2ND LARGEST CEMENT PLAYER Top cement producers in FY161, (million tonnes) Source: International Cement Review, USGS Mineral Resources Report, TechSci Research Note: FY161 – As on August 2015, India2 – As of June 2015, USA – United Sates of America India is the 2nd largest cement producer as well as consumer in the world led by the enormous growth in the infrastructure and construction sector for the last two decades As of August 2015, cement production in India accounted for around 6.7 per cent of overall global cement output Top cement consumers in FY16, (million tonnes) CEMENT2483.18 285.83 80.36 77.95 74.32 72.57 71.63 67.39 66.81 55.35 China India USA Iran Indonesia Brazil Turkey Russia Vietnam Japan 2511 280 93 78 73 11 China India USA Brazil Russia Spain2
  • 9. 99SEPTEMBER 2016 For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org INDIA’S PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION WILL SET TO RISE Cement consumption growth by region YoY (%), 2015E Source: International Cement Review, TechSci Research, Ministry of External Affairs (Investment and Technology Promotion Division) Note: PPP – Purchase Power Parity India1 - As of March 2015; E-Estimated As India’s current per capita consumption of cement (190 kg as of March 2015) is much lesser than the developed and other developing economies, there is a significant business opportunity to cater to the unmet and rising demand In order to meet the rising demand, cement companies are expected to pent up production by around 56 MT in the next three years Cement intensity, As of 2014 ended (grams per USD of PPP GDP) CEMENT Source: International Cement Review, TechSci Research 1.7 3.5 4.1 6.2 3.5 5.1 7.1 2.1 6.8 0.6 5.1 -4.1 WesternEurope EasternEurope FormerSovietUnion NorthAmerica LatinAmerica MENA Sub-SaharanAfrica China India NorthAsia SouthAsia Australia/Pacific 197 110 93 74 59 56 53 51 47 43 42 41 37 China South Korea Turkey Italy Iran Mexico Japan Malaysia India Indonesia Colombia Chile Brazil 1
  • 10. 1010SEPTEMBER 2016 For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org Production of cement (million tonnes) Source: Department of Industrial Policy & Promotion, Office of the Economic Advisor, TechSci Research Notes: E – Estimated Cement production increased at a CAGR of 6.44 per cent to 282.79 million tonnes over FY07–16 As per the 12th Five Year Plan, production is expected to reach 407 million tonnes by FY17 Availability of fly-ash (from thermal power plants) and use of advance technology has increased production of blended cement The environment-friendly blended cement is more cost-efficient to produce, as it requires lesser input of clinker and energy CEMENT PRODUCTION IN INDIA HAS BEEN GROWING AT A FAST PACE CEMENT CAGR: 9.7% 161.30 174.30 186.90 206.60 216.00 230.50 248.20 255.80 270.30 282.79 407 FY07 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17E
  • 11. 1111SEPTEMBER 2016 For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org Domestic cement consumption (million tonnes) Source: CMA, CMIE Database, TechSci Research Notes: E – Estimate, CAGR - Compound Annual Growth Rate Domestic cement consumption is to reach 280 million tonnes in FY15 from 165.63 million tonnes in FY11 The consumption is further expected to increase at a CAGR of 15.7 per cent during FY11-17 and reach 398 million tonnes Demand will be supported by infrastructure development in tier 2 and tier 3 cities The country’s per capita consumption is around 190 kg as of 2015, compared to the world average of over 350 kg per capita, which shows great potential for growth The cement consumption growth rate in the country has witnessed a decline from 9.56 per cent in 2001 – 02 to 5.50 per cent in 2014 – 15 DOMESTIC CEMENT CONSUMPTION IN INDIA ON AN UPTREND CEMENT CAGR: 15.7% 165.63 223.67 238.05 248.7 280 359 398 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E
  • 12. 1212SEPTEMBER 2016 323 336.1 349.6 366 390 395 479 550 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY20E For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org Cement production capacity (million tonnes) Source: The Economic Times, Business Standard, Ministry of External Affairs, TechSci Research Notes: E - Estimate, CAGR - Compound Annual Growth Rate Cement production capacity increased from 323 million tonnes in FY11 to 390 million tonnes in FY15 Production capacity is expected to increase at a CAGR of 6.1 per cent during FY11-20E and reach 550 million tonnes CAPACITY TO EXPAND GOING FORWARD CEMENT CAGR: 6.1%
  • 13. 1313SEPTEMBER 2016 323 336.1 349.6 366 390 395 215.98 230.49 248.23 255.83 270.3 282.8 68% 69% 70% 71% 72% 73% 74% 75% 76% 77% 78% 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 Capacity Cement Production Utilization Rate (%) For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org Cement capacity (million tonnes) and utilisation rate (%) Source: ACC Limited Corporate Presentation, TechSci Research Notes: E - Estimate, CAGR - Compound Annual Growth Rate 1 – Cement Capacity has been estimated for FY16 Cement capacity utilisation rate is expected to touch around 75 per cent in FY16E from 77 per cent in FY11 The utilisation rate in FY15 was 73 per cent CAPACITY UTILISATION RATE TO GROW DURING 12TH FIVE YEAR PLAN CEMENT 1
  • 14. 1414SEPTEMBER 2016 For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org Currently, India has 210 large cement plants across states and is among the top ten exporters both by value and volume Andhra Pradesh is the leading state with 40 large cement plants, followed by Tamil Nadu and Rajasthan having 21 and 20 plants, respectively Major cement clusters include - Satna (Madhya Pradesh), Gulbarga (Karnataka), Yerranguntla (Andhra Pradesh), Nalgonda (Andhra Pradesh) and Chandoria (Rajasthan) LARGE CEMENT PLANTS IN INDIA CEMENT 2 3 1 45 8 6 7 9 13 11 10 12 17 14 16 15 20 19 18 21 Source: Cement Manufacturer’s Association (CMA), TechSci Research
  • 15. 1515SEPTEMBER 2016 For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org Source: Indian Minerals Year Book by Indian Bureau of Mines, TechSci Research Notes: mtpa - Million Tonnes Per Annum, E- Estimates THE INDUSTRY IS SPLIT INTO FIVE GEOGRAPHIC SEGMENTS CEMENT Cement industry South North East West Central 132.7 mtpa 85.6 mtpa 49.4 mtpa 57.6 mtpa 52.8 mtpa Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana and the NCR West Bengal, Chhattisgarh, Orissa and Jharkhand West Bengal, Chhattisgarh, Orissa and Jharkhand Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh Installed capacity (FY15E) Key markets
  • 16. 1616SEPTEMBER 2016 For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org Increasing presence of cement players • Presence of small and mid-size cement players across regions is increasing, which helps to diminish market concentration of industry leaders • A large number of foreign players have also entered the market owing to the profit margins, constant demand and right valuation . • Cement companies will go for the global listings either through the FCCB route or the GDR route Tie – up with overseas • India has joined hands with Switzerland to reduce energy consumption and develop newer methods in the country for more efficient cement production, which would help India meet its rising demand for cement in the infrastructure sector Housing for All • The Union Budget 2016 – 17 has been favourable for the infrastructure sector, mainly for roads, which would eventually influence the cement industry of the country. • In the budget, the GOI, allocated a total of USD8.22 billion for the development of roads & highways of India, bracing the cement industry of India. • Housing sector is considered to drive the cement industries in India to a great extent, which held nearly 67 per cent of the total cement consumption in India. Source: Union Budget 2016 – 17, Emkay Global Financial Services Note: GOI – Government of India NOTABLE TRENDS IN THE CEMENT INDUSTRY CEMENT
  • 17. 1717SEPTEMBER 2016 For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org ACC • The subsidiary of Holcim, has plans for a USD500 million capacity expansion in India • ACC will upgrade and expand its Jamul unit in Chattisgarh and its grinding unit in Jharkhand. This will increase ACC’s capacity to 38 mtpa from 30 mtpa in a phased manner by 2016 and 55 mtpa in 2020 Ambuja Cements • Ambuja Cements is targeting an investment of USD580 million for capacity expansion in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh • The proposed project in Rajasthan is expected to add 5 MT to Ambuja Cements’ existing production capacity of 28.5 mtpa Dalmia Cement • Dalmia Cement is planning an investment of USD333.3 million to ramp up its manufacturing capacity to 21 mtpa from the existing 17 mtpa over the next two years. • Dalmia has started up its operation at its new 2.5 MT greenfield unit at Belgaum in Karnataka. It also plans to scale up its two plants in North-East India for a total value of USD239 million and USD9.2 million, respectively Source: TechSci Research Note: mtpa – million tonnes per annum MT – Million Tonnes CAPACITY EXPANSION PLANS BY KEY PLAYERS ... (1/2) CEMENT Shree Cement • In 2016, Shree Cement announced to spend around USD0.9 billion to establish three new clinker plants. • With the expansion, the production capacity of the company would increase from 23.6 mtpa to 33.6 mtpa
  • 18. 1818SEPTEMBER 2016 For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org Heidelberg Cement • Heidelberg Cement, a Germany-based cement manufacturer has commissioned Phase-I of its Jhansi grinding unit • The company has undertaken an investment worth USD259.4 million for expanding its capacity to 2.9 MT • Heidelberg aims to ramp up the operational capacity to 6 MT at its Damoh plant in Madhya Pradesh, striving to add an additional 9 MT by 2017 UltraTech Cement • After the acquisition of two cement plants in 2015, UltraTech has planned to construct two greenfield grinding units in West Bengal and Bihar. • After the acquisition, the installed capacity of the company has reached 67mtpa. The capacity is likely to reach 71 mtpa, after the completion of expansion. Amrit Cement • Amrit Cement India Ltd (ACIL) has announced the launch of Amrit Cement in the North- Eastern market • The company plans to achieve a production level of 5 million tonnes per annum by FY16, through capacity expansion in North-Eastern Bihar and Nepal Source: TechSci Research Note: mtpa – million tonnes per annum MT – Million Tonnes CAPACITY EXPANSION PLANS BY KEY PLAYERS ... (2/2) CEMENT Emami Cement • Emami Cement, a renowned brand of Emami Group, announced expansion plans with an investment of about USD74.7 million in 2016. • The company has declared to set up a cement grinding plant in West Bengal and is also planning to build two other units in Andhra Pradesh and Rajasthan.
  • 19. SEPTEMBER 2016 PORTERS FIVE FORCES ANALYSIS CEMENT
  • 20. 2020SEPTEMBER 2016 CONDUCIVE INDUSTRY FORCES SUPPORT LONG-TERM ATTRACTIVENESS For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org Source: TechSci Research • High – Huge capital investments required present substantial barriers to entry and achieving economies of scale • Moderate – Cement players have to depend on the railways for carriage outward and local coal companies for fuel, although diversification of freight options and fuel sources is diminishing the suppliers’ power • Low – Substantial market concentration among large players ensures low bargaining power of buyers • Low – Although there are partial substitutes such as asphalt, glass, steel, wood, etc; practically cement has no direct substitutes • Low – The Indian cement market is oligopolistic in nature, characterised by tacit collusion, where large players partially control supply for better price discipline Positive Neutral PositivePositive Positive Market attractiveness CEMENT
  • 22. 2222SEPTEMBER 2016 For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org STRATEGIES ADOPTED CEMENT Source: Ministry of External Affairs, HDFC Bank Annual Report • The Government of India has decided to adopt cement instead of bitumen for the construction of all new road projects on the grounds that cement is more durable and cheaper to maintain than bitumen in the long run • The Schedule Rate of Clean Energy Cess, levied on coal is being increased from Rs. 100 per tonne to Rs. 300 per tonne • The increase in the clean energy cess may lead to rise of power and fuel cost in the cement companies • Companies are trying to develop a niche market for RMC (Ready Mix Concrete) • Penetration of RMC has been low at about 8 per cent (USA: 88 per cent; China: 33 per cent; Brazil: 32 per cent) because retail sales comprise mostly of bag cement Adoption of cement instead of Bitumen Increase in Clean Energy Cess Ready-mix concrete
  • 24. 2424SEPTEMBER 2016 STRONG DEMAND DRIVERS IN THE NEAR TERM For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org Source: McKinsey Quarterly Report, TechSci Research, Ministry of External Affairs (Investment and Technology Promotion Division) CEMENT Housing growth Infrastructure growth Commercial real estate growth • The Housing segment accounts for a major portion of the total domestic demand for cement in India • Real estate market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 11.6 per cent over 2011–20, with the market expected to reach USD180 billion by 2020 • Growing urbanisation, an increasing number of households and higher employment are primarily driving the demand for housing, accounting for 67 per cent of the total consumption • Initiatives by the government are expected to provide an impetus to construction activity in rural and semi- urban areas through large infrastructure and housing development projects respectively • The government is strongly focused on infrastructure development to boost economic growth and is aiming for 100 smart cities • It plans to increase investment in infrastructure to USD1 trillion in the 12th Five Year Plan (2012–17), compared with USD514 billion under the 11th Five Year Plan (2007–12) • Infrastructure projects such as Dedicated Freight Corridors as well as new and upgraded airports and ports are expected to further drive construction activity, • The government intends to expand the capacity of the railways and the facilities for handling and storage to ease the transportation of cement and reduce transportation costs • The government is strongly focused on infrastructure development to boost economic growth • It plans to increase investment in infrastructure to USD1 trillion in the 12th Five Year Plan (2012–17), compared with USD514 billion under the 11th Five Year Plan (2007–12) • Infrastructure projects such as Dedicated Freight Corridors as well as new and upgraded airports and ports are expected to further drive construction activity • The government intends to expand the capacity of the railways and the facilities for handling and storage to ease the transportation of cement and reduce transportation costs
  • 25. 2525SEPTEMBER 2016 STRONG DEMAND DRIVERS IN THE NEAR TERM For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org Source: McKinsey Quarterly Report, TechSci Research, Ministry of External Affairs (Investment and Technology Promotion Division) CEMENT Government Initiatives towards New Schemes Development in Metro, Roads, Airports • Initiatives by the new government such as housing for all, smart cities, Swachh Bharat campaign, infrastructure spending, concrete roads initiative and an increase in allocation of funds to states are likely to see a positive impact on the industry in the next three-six months. • The government’s recent focus on road projects and an increase in state allocations will drive infrastructure and housing demand which will indeed drive the market for cement industry • Projects like smart cities and Atal Mission for Rejuvenation and Urban Transformation (AMRUT) is expected to lead a surge in the demand for cement. • The metro rail projects in Mumbai, Bangalore and Hyderabad and the expansion phase in Delhi drives cement demand • Airports modernisation across major cities will also expand demand for cement industry • The latest development in the Ahmedabad Metro Rail Project has also driven the cement demand to a large extent. Urbanisation and industrialisation development in the country • The new urban development mission will focus on development of 500 cities having population of more than 100,000 and some cities of religious and tourist importance. • Infrastructure is a priority for the government’s economic policy; funding from private as well as public sectors is set to increase sharply in the near term which would anticipate the demand of cement industry in India.
  • 26. 2626SEPTEMBER 2016 For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org Major cement demand drivers (FY15) Source: TechSci Research, Ministry of External Affairs (Investment and Technology Promotion Division), 1 Cement Vision 2025, AT Kearney Demand for cement is highly correlated with cyclical activities like construction and development Housing sector accounts for a significant 67 per cent of the total cement demand (USA: 22 per cent; China: 25 per cent; Brazil 56 per cent)1 Real estate market is expected to grow at a CAGR of 17.2 per cent during 2011–15 to USD126 billion. It is anticipated to reach USD180 billion by 2020. The rapidly increasing real estate industry in India is expected to push the demand for cement Residential real estate demand is driven by rising population and growing urbanisation Rising income levels are leading to higher demand for luxury projects Demand for affordable housing is growing in order to meet the demand from lower income groups Commercial real estate demand will be driven by growth in IT/ITeS sector and organised retail HOUSING SECTOR LEAD IN CEMENT DEMAND CEMENT 67% 13% 11% 9% Housing Sector Infrastructure Commercial Industrial
  • 27. 2727SEPTEMBER 2016 For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org INVESTMENT IN INFRASTRUCTURE DRIVING SECTOR’S GROWTH Infrastructure spending as % of GDP Source: CMIE Database, TechSci Research Note: Additional capacity creation estimates are based on increase in base lines, roads, housing and fiscal support Investment in infrastructure is the main growth driver for the cement industry The NITI Aayog estimates total infrastructure spending to be about of 9 per cent of GDP during the 12th Five Year Plan (2012-17), up from 7.2 per cent during the previous plan (2007-12) India’s investment in infrastructure is estimated to double to about USD1 trillion during the 12th Five Year Plan (2012–17) compared to the previous plan Infrastructure spending in % during 11th and 12th Five Year Plan CEMENT 12th Plan 11th Plan 75.7 69.4 89.5 101.6 101.9 157.4 181.2 173.8 210.6 260.2 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 9.00% 7.20% 9.00% 8.40% 7.90% 7.60% 7.40% 8.40% 7.90% 7.50% 7.20% 6.40% 5.2% 12th Five Year Plan 11th Five Year Plan FY17 FY16 FY15 FY14 FY13 FY12 FY11 FY10 FY09 FY08 10th Five Year Plan
  • 28. 2828SEPTEMBER 2016 For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org North Source: CMA (Cement Manufacturers Association), Centrum Report, TechSci Research Note: F- Forecast, UTILISATION RATES ESTIMATED TO IMPROVE CEMENT South East West Central All India 78% 80% 86% FY14 FY16F FY17F 56% 61% 67% FY14 FY16F FY17F 75% 71% 81% FY14 FY16F FY17F 73% 73% 84% FY14 FY16F FY17F 78% 81% 90% FY14 FY16F FY17F 71% 75% 85% FY14 FY16F FY17F
  • 29. 2929SEPTEMBER 2016 For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org Capacity creation as per the 12th Five Year Plan (million tonnes) Source: DIPP (Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion) Notes: Additional capacity creation estimates are based on increase in base lines, roads, housing and fiscal support, E – Estimates Total cement production capacity in India stood at 395 million in FY16 The strong momentum in capacity addition is not surprising given the sharp growth in construction, infrastructure and real estate in Indian economy Hence, the 12th Five Year Plan is estimated to have an additional capacity requirement of 139.7 million tonnes by FY17 The total FDI in cement and gypsum industry reached USD3.11 billion, between April 2000-March 2016 … CAPACITY ADDITIONS ALSO ON THE CARDS CEMENT 10 35.3 65.5 101 139.7 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E
  • 30. 3030SEPTEMBER 2016 For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org CASES OF SUCCESSFUL USE OF ALTERNATE FUELS IN CEMENT PRODUCTION CEMENT Strategy BenefitsCompany/Plant Madras Cement's Alathiyur plant India Cements Ltd's Dalavoi plant UltraTech's Gujarat Cement Works Lafarge's Arasmeta plant Use bioenergy through burning of coffee husk and cashew nut shells Use Low Sulphur Heavy Stock (LSHS) sludge as alternate fuel Use tyre chips and rubber dust as alternate fuel Substitute 10 per cent of coal used in kilns with rice husk Annual cost savings of USD1.7 million Annual savings of USD6,500 approx Reduction of about 30,000 tonnes of carbon emissions annually Higher energy savings and lower carbon emissions Source: CMA, TechSci Research
  • 32. 3232SEPTEMBER 2016 For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org NORTH-EAST INDIA: A LAND OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR CEMENT FIRMS Source: Industry Sources, TechSci Research Note: mtpa - Million Tonnes Per Annum CEMENT 5.2 3.0 Estimated Demand Available Supply NE India: Cement demand NE India: Cement supply NE India: Cement demand-supply (2011) Deficit of 2.2 mtpa • The North Eastern (NE) region has consistently been in cement deficit for several years • At present, cement demand in the NE is about 5.2 mtpa • Cement manufactured locally is inadequate to meet the local demand for cement • The deficit is met through cement purchased from other parts of India • High transportation costs cause the landed costs of cement to increase considerably
  • 33. 3333SEPTEMBER 2016 For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org NORTH-EAST INDIA: DEMAND DRIVERS FOR CEMENT NE states projected GDP growth at constant prices The Government has approved a package of fiscal incentives and other concessions for the North Eastern Region, namely the North East Industrial and Investment Policy, 2007, effective from 1 April, 2007 The major policy and fiscal initiatives are expected to catalyse infrastructure and industrial development in the region, spurring the demand for cement Dungsam Cement, A Bhutan-based player, is entering the Indian market, targeting mainly North-East market NE states projected per capita income growth CEMENT 10.0% 13.7% 16.4% XI 5-yr Plan XII 5-yr Plan XIII 5-yr Plan 8.6% 12.4% 15.2% XI 5-yr Plan XII 5-yr Plan XIII 5-yr Plan
  • 35. 3535SEPTEMBER 2016 For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org Revenue and Profit After Tax (PAT) in USD billion Source: Company website, TechSci Research Notes: RMC – Ready Mix Concrete PAT – Profit after tax UltraTech is India's largest exporter of cement clinker spanning export markets in countries across the Indian Ocean, Africa, Europe and the Middle East UltraTech and its subsidiaries have a presence in five countries through 12 integrated plants, 1 white cement plant, one clinkerisation plant, 17 grinding units, two rail and three coastal terminals, and 101 RMC plants It has an annual capacity of 64 MT Projects: Mumbai Metro, Bangalore Metro Rail, Kolkata Metro Rail, Monorail, Coastal Gujarat Power ULTRATECH CEMENT: A COMPELLING GROWTH STORY CEMENT Milestones • 2004 – Acquisition of L&T’s Cement Business: UltraTech Cement Ltd • 2006 – Narmada Cement Company Limited amalgamated with UltraTech • 2010 – Samruddhi Cement Limited amalgamated with UltraTech Cement Limited • 2012 – Acquisition of Adhunik Cement’s Meghalaya plant • 2013 – Buys Jaypee Cement’s Gujarat unit • 2015 – Commissioned 6000 TPD Clinkerisation line at Aditya Cement, (Rajasthan) • 2016 – Greenfield & Brownfield expansion. Capacity: 67.7 mtpa (including 3 mtpa overseas) 1.4 1.4 1.4 2.8 3.6 3.9 3.6 4.0 4.0 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.30 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 Revenue PAT
  • 36. 3636SEPTEMBER 2016 For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org Revenue and Profit After Tax (PAT) in USD billion Source: Company website, TechSci Research Notes: mtpa – Million Tonnes Per Annum PAT – Profit after tax 20161 indicates data from January 2016 – March 2016 Ambuja Cements Ltd (ACL) is one of the leading cement manufacturing companies in India. The company, initially called Gujarat Ambuja Cements Ltd, was founded by Narotam Sekhsaria in 1983 Ambuja Cements is the second largest cement manufacturer in India, with nearly 10 per cent of the market share of total installed capacity It is the market leader in Northern India with 29 per cent of the total installed capacity AMBUJA CEMENT: ON A HIGH GROWTH PATH CEMENT Milestones • 2010 – Started cement plant at Nalagarh, Himachal Pradesh and Dadri, Uttar Pradesh with a capacity of 1.5 million tonnes • 2011 – Acquired 85 per cent stake in Nepal-based Dang Cement • 2012 – Expansion of Sankrail Grinding Unit, thereby increasing the capacity from 1.5 mtpa to 2.4 mtpa • 2013 – Acquiring Holderind Investments Ltd, Mauritius (Holcim), These transactions will result in Ambuja holding 50.01 per cent stake in ACC • 2015 – Ambuja Cement becomes the leading water positive cement company in India with 4.03 times water positive factor 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.9 1.9 1.6 1.7 1.5 0.40.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.05 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Revenue PAT 1
  • 38. 3838SEPTEMBER 2016 INDUSTRY ASSOCIATIONS Cement Manufacturers' Association CMA Tower, A-2E, Sector 24 NOIDA – 201 301 Uttar Pradesh, India Phone: 91-120-2411955, 2411957, 2411958 Fax: 91-120-2411956 E-mail: cmand@vsnl.com Website: www.cmaindia.org/index.html For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org CEMENT
  • 39. 3939SEPTEMBER 2016 BODIES PROMOTING INDUSTRY DEVELOPMENT Indian Concrete Institute Ocean Crest 79, Third Main Road, Gandhi Nagar, Adyar, Chennai – 600 020 Phone: 91-44-24912602 Fax: 91-44-24455148 E-mail: ici3@vsnl.in, ici4@airtelmail.in, vj6314@gmail.com Website: www.indianconcreteinstitute.org National Council for Cement and Building Materials 34th Milestone, Delhi-Mathura Road, Ballabgarh – 121 004 Haryana, India Phone: 91-129-2242051/52/53/54/55/56; 4192222 Fax: 91-129-2242100; 2246175 E-mail: nccbm@vsnl.com; info@ncbindia.com For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org CEMENT
  • 40. 4040SEPTEMBER 2016 GLOSSARY For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org CMA: Cement Manufacturers' Association GDP: Gross Domestic Product GoI: Government of India INR: Indian Rupee MTPA: Million Tonnes Per Annum NE India: North-East India FY: Indian Financial Year (April to March) So FY10 implies April 2009 to March 2010 USD: US Dollar Wherever applicable, numbers have been rounded off to the nearest whole number CEMENT
  • 41. 4141SEPTEMBER 2016 Exchange rates (Fiscal Year) For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org EXCHANGE RATES Exchange rates (Calendar Year) CEMENT Source: Reserve bank of India, Average for the year Year INR equivalent of one USD 2004–05 44.81 2005–06 44.14 2006–07 45.14 2007–08 40.27 2008–09 46.14 2009–10 47.42 2010–11 45.62 2011–12 46.88 2012–13 54.31 2013–14 60.28 2014-15 61.06 2015-16 65.46 2016-17 (E) 66.95 Year INR equivalent of one USD 2005 43.98 2006 45.18 2007 41.34 2008 43.62 2009 48.42 2010 45.72 2011 46.85 2012 53.46 2013 58.44 2014 61.03 2015 64.15 2016 (Expected) 67.22
  • 42. 4242SEPTEMBER 2016 India Brand Equity Foundation (“IBEF”) engaged TechSci to prepare this presentation and the same has been prepared by TechSci in consultation with IBEF. All rights reserved. All copyright in this presentation and related works is solely and exclusively owned by IBEF. The same may not be reproduced, wholly or in part in any material form (including photocopying or storing it in any medium by electronic means and whether or not transiently or incidentally to some other use of this presentation), modified or in any manner communicated to any third party except with the written approval of IBEF. This presentation is for information purposes only. While due care has been taken during the compilation of this presentation to ensure that the information is accurate to the best of TechSci and IBEF’s knowledge and belief, the content is not to be construed in any manner whatsoever as a substitute for professional advice. TechSci and IBEF neither recommend nor endorse any specific products or services that may have been mentioned in this presentation and nor do they assume any liability or responsibility for the outcome of decisions taken as a result of any reliance placed on this presentation. Neither TechSci nor IBEF shall be liable for any direct or indirect damages that may arise due to any act or omission on the part of the user due to any reliance placed or guidance taken from any portion of this presentation. For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org DISCLAIMER CEMENT
  • 43. 4343SEPTEMBER 2016 India Brand Equity Foundation (“IBEF”) engaged TechSci to prepare this presentation and the same has been prepared by TechSci in consultation with IBEF. All rights reserved. All copyright in this presentation and related works is solely and exclusively owned by IBEF. The same may not be reproduced, wholly or in part in any material form (including photocopying or storing it in any medium by electronic means and whether or not transiently or incidentally to some other use of this presentation), modified or in any manner communicated to any third party except with the written approval of IBEF. This presentation is for information purposes only. While due care has been taken during the compilation of this presentation to ensure that the information is accurate to the best of TechSci and IBEF’s knowledge and belief, the content is not to be construed in any manner whatsoever as a substitute for professional advice. TechSci and IBEF neither recommend nor endorse any specific products or services that may have been mentioned in this presentation and nor do they assume any liability or responsibility for the outcome of decisions taken as a result of any reliance placed on this presentation. Neither TechSci nor IBEF shall be liable for any direct or indirect damages that may arise due to any act or omission on the part of the user due to any reliance placed or guidance taken from any portion of this presentation. For updated information, please visit www.ibef.org DISCLAIMER CEMENT