The identification of a possible European business cycle has been inconclusive and is complicated by the enlargement to the new member states and their transition to market economies. This paper shows how to decompose a business cycle into a time-frequency framework in a way that allows us to accommodate structural breaks and nonstationary variables. To illustrate, calculations of the growth rate spectrum and coherences for the Hungarian, Polish, German and French economies show the instability of the transition period. However, since then there has been convergence on the Eurozone economy at short cycle lengths, but little convergence in long cycles. We argue that this shows evidence of nominal convergence, but little real convergence. The Maastricht criteria for membership of the Euro therefore need to be adapted to test for real convergence.
Authored by: Andrew Hughes Hallett, Christian R. Richter
Published in 2007
The purpose of the paper is to assess the validity of two interpretations which have been used in the description of the relationship between employment growth and economic activity in Finland during the 1990s. According to the New Era view the Finnish economy has moved into a new era which, as a result of a faster-than-before rate of labour productivity growth, is characterized by "jobless growth". According to the Cyclical Rebound view no change in the rate of trend productivity growth has taken place. The productivity-led growth, which after the very deep depression characterized the recovery of the economy, only reflected a normal cyclical rebound. The main result of my investigation is as follows. Neither the New Era view nor the Cyclical Rebound view provides a telling interpretation about the developments of productivity and the relationship between output and employment growth in the 1990s. Characterizing the years of the recovery as reflecting a New Era which is associated with an increase in the rate of longrun productivity growth is misleading, because that kind of change has not taken place. On the other hand, the movements of productivity are hard to reconcile with the Cyclical Rebound view because the years from 1992 to1994, especially, were exceptional. During the period movements in productivity were not consistent with a pro-cyclical pattern, and, what is important, the productivity trend shifted upwards. However, the shift was not associated with an acceleration in the rate of trend productivity growth. The upward shift was caused by a sequence of positive technology shocks, which were identified by using a structural VAR model. The identifying restriction was rationalized by utilizing a new Keynesian dynamic general equilibrium model. The positive technology shocks which dominated the developments of aggregate productivity during the period from 1992 to 1994 mainly reflect micro-structural changes like business restructuring and labour reallocation in manufacturing
This paper deals with the choice of the exchange rate parity upon Poland's entry to EMU. Given that the euro parity should reflect some equilibrium exchange rate, two theoretical concepts are discussed: fundamental and behavioural equilibrium exchange rates. These approaches are then estimated. According to these calculations, the zloty euro exchange rate in 2002 is not far from the level consistent with the current state of fundamentals (as indicted by BEER) and requires some depreciation to be in line with the equilibrium level of fundamentals (as indicated by FEER). The possible FEERs range between 3.88 and 4.08 zlotys per euro depending on the variant and REER definition. The results should be treated with great caution as they are demonstrated to be sensitive to the adopted assumptions and model specifications. It is argued that the range of "optimal" exchange rates is quiet wide. This stems from the fact that consequences of exchange rate misalignment depend primarily on its degree as well as due to the intrinsic uncertainty about empirical estimates of equilibrium exchange rate. Moreover, the scope for depreciation of the nominal zloty-euro exchange rate is limited by the ensuing costs to the economy, needs to meet Maastricht criteria, and political bargain.
Authored by: Łukasz Rawdanowicz
Published in 2002
The paper re-assesses the impact of exchange rate regimes on macroeconomic performance. We test for the relationship between de jure and de facto exchange rate classifications on the one hand, and inflation, output growth and output volatility on the other. We find that, once high-inflation outliers are excluded from the sample, only hard exchange rate pegs are associated with lower inflation compared to the floating regime. There is no significant relationship between output growth and exchange rate regimes, confirming results from previous studies. De jure pegged regimes (broadly defined) are correlated with higher output volatility, but this relationship is reversed for the de facto classification. The last result points to a potential endogeneity problem present when the de facto classification is used in testing for the relationship between exchange rate behavior and macroeconomic performance.
Authored by: Maryla Maliszewska, Wojciech Maliszewski
Published in 2004
International Journal of Mathematics and Statistics Invention (IJMSI) is an international journal intended for professionals and researchers in all fields of computer science and electronics. IJMSI publishes research articles and reviews within the whole field Mathematics and Statistics, new teaching methods, assessment, validation and the impact of new technologies and it will continue to provide information on the latest trends and developments in this ever-expanding subject. The publications of papers are selected through double peer reviewed to ensure originality, relevance, and readability. The articles published in our journal can be accessed online.
In Sauramo (1996) I started to analyse a most important and interesting period of Finnish economic history, the boom of the late eighties and the depression of the early nineties, by utilizing an econometric model. The main motivation for writing that paper was that the Finnish discussion about the causes of the depression would benefit from research based on econometric
analysis.
The purpose of the paper is to assess the validity of two interpretations which have been used in the description of the relationship between employment growth and economic activity in Finland during the 1990s. According to the New Era view the Finnish economy has moved into a new era which, as a result of a faster-than-before rate of labour productivity growth, is characterized by "jobless growth". According to the Cyclical Rebound view no change in the rate of trend productivity growth has taken place. The productivity-led growth, which after the very deep depression characterized the recovery of the economy, only reflected a normal cyclical rebound. The main result of my investigation is as follows. Neither the New Era view nor the Cyclical Rebound view provides a telling interpretation about the developments of productivity and the relationship between output and employment growth in the 1990s. Characterizing the years of the recovery as reflecting a New Era which is associated with an increase in the rate of longrun productivity growth is misleading, because that kind of change has not taken place. On the other hand, the movements of productivity are hard to reconcile with the Cyclical Rebound view because the years from 1992 to1994, especially, were exceptional. During the period movements in productivity were not consistent with a pro-cyclical pattern, and, what is important, the productivity trend shifted upwards. However, the shift was not associated with an acceleration in the rate of trend productivity growth. The upward shift was caused by a sequence of positive technology shocks, which were identified by using a structural VAR model. The identifying restriction was rationalized by utilizing a new Keynesian dynamic general equilibrium model. The positive technology shocks which dominated the developments of aggregate productivity during the period from 1992 to 1994 mainly reflect micro-structural changes like business restructuring and labour reallocation in manufacturing
This paper deals with the choice of the exchange rate parity upon Poland's entry to EMU. Given that the euro parity should reflect some equilibrium exchange rate, two theoretical concepts are discussed: fundamental and behavioural equilibrium exchange rates. These approaches are then estimated. According to these calculations, the zloty euro exchange rate in 2002 is not far from the level consistent with the current state of fundamentals (as indicted by BEER) and requires some depreciation to be in line with the equilibrium level of fundamentals (as indicated by FEER). The possible FEERs range between 3.88 and 4.08 zlotys per euro depending on the variant and REER definition. The results should be treated with great caution as they are demonstrated to be sensitive to the adopted assumptions and model specifications. It is argued that the range of "optimal" exchange rates is quiet wide. This stems from the fact that consequences of exchange rate misalignment depend primarily on its degree as well as due to the intrinsic uncertainty about empirical estimates of equilibrium exchange rate. Moreover, the scope for depreciation of the nominal zloty-euro exchange rate is limited by the ensuing costs to the economy, needs to meet Maastricht criteria, and political bargain.
Authored by: Łukasz Rawdanowicz
Published in 2002
The paper re-assesses the impact of exchange rate regimes on macroeconomic performance. We test for the relationship between de jure and de facto exchange rate classifications on the one hand, and inflation, output growth and output volatility on the other. We find that, once high-inflation outliers are excluded from the sample, only hard exchange rate pegs are associated with lower inflation compared to the floating regime. There is no significant relationship between output growth and exchange rate regimes, confirming results from previous studies. De jure pegged regimes (broadly defined) are correlated with higher output volatility, but this relationship is reversed for the de facto classification. The last result points to a potential endogeneity problem present when the de facto classification is used in testing for the relationship between exchange rate behavior and macroeconomic performance.
Authored by: Maryla Maliszewska, Wojciech Maliszewski
Published in 2004
International Journal of Mathematics and Statistics Invention (IJMSI) is an international journal intended for professionals and researchers in all fields of computer science and electronics. IJMSI publishes research articles and reviews within the whole field Mathematics and Statistics, new teaching methods, assessment, validation and the impact of new technologies and it will continue to provide information on the latest trends and developments in this ever-expanding subject. The publications of papers are selected through double peer reviewed to ensure originality, relevance, and readability. The articles published in our journal can be accessed online.
In Sauramo (1996) I started to analyse a most important and interesting period of Finnish economic history, the boom of the late eighties and the depression of the early nineties, by utilizing an econometric model. The main motivation for writing that paper was that the Finnish discussion about the causes of the depression would benefit from research based on econometric
analysis.
Economy of Innovation and Technological Change A Theoretical Approach of Schu...ijtsrd
In the current economic dynamics, the leading role of technological innovation in business competitiveness, development and economic growth is widely recognized and accepted. The objective of this article is to focus on the field of economic and business analysis of the process of innovation and technological change, as a socio economic process, an objective that is developed from a review of the theoretical contributions, which can well be called the father of an economy of innovation of technological change. Abdunazarov Saidahmad "Economy of Innovation and Technological Change: A Theoretical Approach of Schumpeter" Published in International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (ijtsrd), ISSN: 2456-6470, Volume-4 | Issue-4 , June 2020, URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/papers/ijtsrd31236.pdf Paper Url :https://www.ijtsrd.com/management/innovation-and-product-dev/31236/economy-of-innovation-and-technological-change-a-theoretical-approach-of-schumpeter/abdunazarov-saidahmad
The research studies the impact of the exchange rate fluctuations of the local currency on the share dividends exchanged in the stock market, and stating whether there is a trace of the fluctuations occurring in the exchange rate on the fluctuations reflected on the stock returns in the stock market – during the political and economic crisis in Syria. The descriptive analytical approach was adopted to indicate whether there is any direct or indirect impact of fluctuations in the exchange rate of the pound (Lira) against the dollar on the exchange value of the Damascus Securities Exchange Index. The study community consists of all stock companies listed in Damascus Securities Exchange. It covers the total of 23 listed companies. It relied on the period from 1/7/2011 through 12/31/2013 to study the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on stock returns, where the crisis began on 18/03/2011, but reflections on economic life began to appear in mid-2011 when the severe fluctuations in the exchange rate and returns began as a result of lack of stability and economic siege Syria has been witnessing and the study stretched until the year 2013. The data is a sort of daily observations of each of the dependent and independent variable sending with 381 observations. The study reached the many results some of which include that there is an inverse weak between the Syrian pound exchange rate and Damascus Securities Exchange Index returns. The inefficiency of Damascus Securities Exchange Index on the weak level, where, as we have seen, this index is not subject to normal distribution and it is auto-correlated of the third degree and does not settle at the first level; instead, it settles at the first change.
Pronunciamientos Internacionales ante Situación de Venezuela FEBRERO 2015Julio Borges
Gobiernos, Parlamentos y Personalidades se pronuncian ante la persecución política por parte del Gobierno del Partido Socialista Unido de Venezuela a sus opositores
Proposta especifica regra tributária para cooperativas de crédito e de transp...Transvias
Cobrança de Impostos: Cooperativas poderão excluir da base de cálculo PIS/Pasep e Cofins ecorrentes de atos cooperativos - http://www.transvias.com.br/7025/noticias/Proposta-especifica-regra-tributaria-para-cooperativas-de-credito-e-de-transporte
This paper analyses the impact of exchange rate regimes on the real sector. While most studies in this field have so far concentrated on aggregate variables, we pursue a sectoral approach distinguishing between the tradable and nontradable sectors. Firstly, we present a survey of the relevant theoretical and empirical literature. This demonstrates that evaluations of exchange rate regimes and their impact on the real economy are largely dependant on specific assumptions concerning, in particular, the parameters of a utility function, the nature of the price adjustment process and the characteristics of analysed shocks. Secondly, we conduct an empirical analysis of the behaviour of the tradable and nontradable sectors under different exchange rate regimes for seven Central and Eastern European countries. We find no firm evidence of a differential impact of given exchange rate regimes on the dynamics of output and prices in the two sectors. We proffer a conceptual and technical interpretation of this.
Authored by: Przemyslaw Kowalski, Wojciech Paczynski, Łukasz Rawdanowicz
Published in 2003
Economy of Innovation and Technological Change A Theoretical Approach of Schu...ijtsrd
In the current economic dynamics, the leading role of technological innovation in business competitiveness, development and economic growth is widely recognized and accepted. The objective of this article is to focus on the field of economic and business analysis of the process of innovation and technological change, as a socio economic process, an objective that is developed from a review of the theoretical contributions, which can well be called the father of an economy of innovation of technological change. Abdunazarov Saidahmad "Economy of Innovation and Technological Change: A Theoretical Approach of Schumpeter" Published in International Journal of Trend in Scientific Research and Development (ijtsrd), ISSN: 2456-6470, Volume-4 | Issue-4 , June 2020, URL: https://www.ijtsrd.com/papers/ijtsrd31236.pdf Paper Url :https://www.ijtsrd.com/management/innovation-and-product-dev/31236/economy-of-innovation-and-technological-change-a-theoretical-approach-of-schumpeter/abdunazarov-saidahmad
The research studies the impact of the exchange rate fluctuations of the local currency on the share dividends exchanged in the stock market, and stating whether there is a trace of the fluctuations occurring in the exchange rate on the fluctuations reflected on the stock returns in the stock market – during the political and economic crisis in Syria. The descriptive analytical approach was adopted to indicate whether there is any direct or indirect impact of fluctuations in the exchange rate of the pound (Lira) against the dollar on the exchange value of the Damascus Securities Exchange Index. The study community consists of all stock companies listed in Damascus Securities Exchange. It covers the total of 23 listed companies. It relied on the period from 1/7/2011 through 12/31/2013 to study the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on stock returns, where the crisis began on 18/03/2011, but reflections on economic life began to appear in mid-2011 when the severe fluctuations in the exchange rate and returns began as a result of lack of stability and economic siege Syria has been witnessing and the study stretched until the year 2013. The data is a sort of daily observations of each of the dependent and independent variable sending with 381 observations. The study reached the many results some of which include that there is an inverse weak between the Syrian pound exchange rate and Damascus Securities Exchange Index returns. The inefficiency of Damascus Securities Exchange Index on the weak level, where, as we have seen, this index is not subject to normal distribution and it is auto-correlated of the third degree and does not settle at the first level; instead, it settles at the first change.
Pronunciamientos Internacionales ante Situación de Venezuela FEBRERO 2015Julio Borges
Gobiernos, Parlamentos y Personalidades se pronuncian ante la persecución política por parte del Gobierno del Partido Socialista Unido de Venezuela a sus opositores
Proposta especifica regra tributária para cooperativas de crédito e de transp...Transvias
Cobrança de Impostos: Cooperativas poderão excluir da base de cálculo PIS/Pasep e Cofins ecorrentes de atos cooperativos - http://www.transvias.com.br/7025/noticias/Proposta-especifica-regra-tributaria-para-cooperativas-de-credito-e-de-transporte
This paper analyses the impact of exchange rate regimes on the real sector. While most studies in this field have so far concentrated on aggregate variables, we pursue a sectoral approach distinguishing between the tradable and nontradable sectors. Firstly, we present a survey of the relevant theoretical and empirical literature. This demonstrates that evaluations of exchange rate regimes and their impact on the real economy are largely dependant on specific assumptions concerning, in particular, the parameters of a utility function, the nature of the price adjustment process and the characteristics of analysed shocks. Secondly, we conduct an empirical analysis of the behaviour of the tradable and nontradable sectors under different exchange rate regimes for seven Central and Eastern European countries. We find no firm evidence of a differential impact of given exchange rate regimes on the dynamics of output and prices in the two sectors. We proffer a conceptual and technical interpretation of this.
Authored by: Przemyslaw Kowalski, Wojciech Paczynski, Łukasz Rawdanowicz
Published in 2003
To analyze the factors affecting the price volatility of stocks, microeconomic and macroeco-nomic elements must be considered. This paper selects elements that are appropriate with the daily data of stock prices to build the GARCH family models. External variables such as global oil prices, consumer price index, short interest rates and the exchange rate between the United States Dollar and the Euro are examined. The GARCH models are developed in order to analyze and forecast the stock price of the companies in the DAX 30, which is Germany’s most important stock exchange barometer. The volatility of the residual of the mean function is the important key point in the GARCH approach. This financial application can be extend-ed to analyze other specific shares or stock indexes in any stock market in the world. There-fore, it is necessary to understand the operating procedures of their pricing for risk manage-ment, profitability strategies, cost minimization and, in addition, to construct the optimal port-folio depending on investor’s preferences.
Predicting U.S. business cycles: an analysis based on credit spreads and mark...Gabriel Koh
Our paper aims to empirically test the significance of the credit spreads and excess returns of the market portfolio in predicting the U.S. business cycles. We adopt the probit model to estimate the partial effects of the variables using data from the Federal Reserve Economic Data – St. Louis Fed (FRED) and the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) from 1993:12 to 2014:08. Results show that the contemporaneous regression model is not significant while the predictive regression model is significant. Our tests show that only the credit spread variable lagged by one period is significant and that the lagged variables of the excess returns of the market portfolio is also significant. Therefore, we can conclude that credit spreads and excess returns of the market portfolio can predict U.S. business cycles to a certain extent.
The Predictive Power of Intraday-Data Volatility Forecasting Models: A Case S...inventionjournals
The purpose of this study was to compare the predictive power of various volatility forecasting models. Using intraday high-frequency data, this study investigated the influence of time frequency on the predictive power of a volatility forecasting model. The empirical results revealed that the realized volatility increased when the time frequency of forecasts reduced. The overall results showed that when the forecast range was 1 day, among various volatility forecasting models, the autoregressive moving average-generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity(1, 1) model presented the optimal forecasting performance and the implied volatility model presented the worst forecasting performance for all time frequencies.
In this paper it is considered that the series may have a repetitive or
cyclical behavior across time by referring to the Fourier analysis; which
is an important part in the modern treatment of Economic Time Series.
The goal of this is to test the causality Granger between financial
deepening and economic performance in MENA countries using the
spectral analysis that is a special case of the Fourier analysis; according
to different time horizons (short, medium and long term) without
subdividing the study period which extends from 1970 to 2014. For
reliable results, the sample was divided into two subsamples, the
countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), which have a high
income, and other countries.
On high frequencies, estimates show that the real and financial sectors
maintain causal relationships, showing a limit of the conventional
method of causality assessment that sets in many cases a complete lack
of connection between the proxies. In the long term, finance dominates
in some Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries while we have the
opposite effect in other countries.
The main conclusion that one can reach is that the causal relationship
between finance and growth is not linear, but it varies depending on the
chosen time horizon.
The paper deals with the choice of the nominal euro conversion rates for the acceding countries upon their accession to EMU. The paper reviews theoretical models of equilibrium exchange rates as well as discusses their interpretation and the ensuing policy recommendations. Problems with empirical estimations of existing models are addressed. It is argued that despite several equilibrium exchange rate theories not all of them are useful for the real policy choice of the nominal conversion rate. This and the intrinsic uncertainty of equilibrium exchange rate estimates lead to the conclusion that the range of “optimal” euro conversion rates is quiet wideand other issues must be taken into account. In particular, a smooth transition to the euro conversion rate and minimisation of risks of potential shocks to the economy should be the keyconcern. Consequently, recommendations for the selection of nominal conversion rates are largely dependent on the current exchange rate regime.
Authored by: Łukasz Rawdanowicz
Published in 2003
The report examines the social and economic drivers and impact of circular migration between Belarus and Poland, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic. The core question the authors sought to address was how managing circular migration could, in the long term, help to optimise labour resources in both the country of origin and the destination countries. In the pages that follow, the authors of the report present the current and forecasted labour market and demographic situation in their respective countries as well as the dynamics and characteristics of short-term labour migration flows between Belarus and Poland, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic, concentrating on the period since 2010. They also outline and discuss related policy responses and evaluate prospects for cooperation on circular migration.
Podręcznik został opracowany w celu przekazania trenerom i nauczycielom podstawowej wiedzy, która może być przydatna w prowadzeniu szkoleń promujących pracę rejestrowaną. Prezentuje on z jednej strony korzyści z pracy rejestrowanej, z drugiej – potencjalne koszty związane z pracą nierejestrowaną. W pierwszej kolejności informacje te przedstawiono w odniesieniu do pracowników najemnych (rozdział 2), podkreślając w sposób szczególny to, że negatywne konsekwencje pracy nierejestrowanej są ponoszone przez całe życie. Ze względu na specyficzną sytuację cudzoziemców pracujących w Polsce konsekwencje ponoszone przez tę grupę opisano oddzielnie (rozdział 3). Ponadto zaprezentowano skutki dotyczące pracodawców z szarej strefy z wyodrębnieniem tych, którzy zatrudniają cudzoziemców (rozdział 4). Uzupełnieniem przedstawionych informacji jest opis działań podejmowanych przez państwo w celu ograniczenia zjawiska pracy nierejestrowanej w Polsce (rozdział 5) oraz prowadzonych w Wielkiej Brytanii, czyli w kraju będącym liderem w walce z szarą strefą (rozdział 6).
European countries face a challenge related to the economic and social consequences of their societies’ aging. Specifically, pension systems must adjust to the coming changes, maintaining both financial stability, connected with equalizing inflows from premiums and spending on pensions, and simultaneously the sufficiency of benefits, protecting retirees against poverty and smoothing consumption over their lives, i.e. ensuring the ability to pay for consumption needs at each stage of life, regardless of income from labor.
One of the key instruments applied toward these goals is the retirement age. Formally it is a legally established boundary: once people have crossed it – on average – they significantly lose their ability to perform work (the so-called old-age risk). But since the 1970s, in many developed countries the retirement age has become an instrument of social and labor-market policy. Specifically, in the 1970s and ‘80s, an early retirement age was perceived as a solution allowing a reduction in the supply of labor, particularly among people with relatively low competencies who were approaching retirement age, which is called the lump of labor fallacy. It was often believed that people taking early retirement freed up jobs for the young. But a range of economic evidence shows that the number of jobs is not fixed, and those who retire don’t in fact free up jobs. On the contrary, because of higher spending by pension systems, labor costs rise, which limits the supply of jobs. In general, a good situation on the labor market supports employment of both the youngest and the oldest labor force participants. Additionally, a lower retirement age for women was maintained, which resulted to a high degree from cultural conditions and norms that are typical for traditional societies.
Until now, the banking sector has been one of the strong points of Poland’s economy. In contrast to banks in the U.S. and leading Western European economies, lenders in Poland came through the 2008 global financial crisis without a scratch, without needing state financial support. But in recent years the industry’s problems have been growing, creating a threat to economic growth and gains in living standards.
For an economy’s productivity to increase, funds can’t go to all companies evenly, and definitely shouldn’t go to those that are most lacking in funds, but to those that will use them most efficiently. This is true of total external financing, and thus funding both from the banking sector and from parabanks, the capital market and funds from public institutions. In Poland, in light of the relatively modest scale of the capital market, banks play a clearly dominant role in external financing of companies. This is why the author of this text focuses on the bank credit allocation efficiency.
The author points out that in the very near future, conditions will emerge in Poland which – as the experience of other countries shows – create a risk of reduced efficiency of credit allocation to business. Additionally, in Poland today, bank lending to companies is to a high degree being replaced by funds from state aid, which reduces the efficiency of allocation of external funds to companies (both loans and subsidies), as allocation of government subsidies is not usually based on efficiency. This decline in external financing allocation efficiency may slow, halt or even reverse the process, that has been uninterrupted for 28 years, of Poland’s convergence, i.e. the narrowing of the gap in living standards between Poland and the West.
The economic characteristics of the COVID-19 crisis differ from those of previous crises. It is a combination of demand- and supply-side constraints which led to the formation of a monetary overhang that will be unfrozen once the pandemic ends. Monetary policy must take this effect into consideration, along with other pro-inflationary factors, in the post-pandemic era. It must also think in advance about how to avoid a policy trap coming from fiscal dominance.
This paper is organized as follows: Chapter 2 deals with the economic characteristics of the COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on the effectiveness of the monetary policy response measures undertaken. In Chapter 3, we analyse the monetary policy decisions of the ECB (and other major CBs for comparison) and their effectiveness in achieving the declared policy goals in the short term. Chapter 4 is devoted to an analysis of the policy challenges which may be faced by the ECB and other major CBs once the pandemic emergency comes to its end. Chapter 5 contains a summary and the conclusions of our analysis.
Purpose: This paper tries to identify the wage gap between informal and formal workers and tests for the two-tier structure of the informal labour market in Poland.
Design/methodology/approach: I employ the propensity score matching (PSM) technique and use data from the Polish Labour Force Survey (LFS) for the period 2009–2017 to estimate the wage gap between informal and formal workers, both at the means and along the wage distribution. I use two definitions of informal employment: a) employment without a written agreement and b) employment while officially registered as unemployed at a labour office. In order to reduce the bias resulting from the non-random selection of
individuals into informal employment, I use a rich set of control variables representing several individual characteristics.
Findings: After controlling for observed heterogeneity, I find that on average informal workers earn less than formal workers, both in terms of monthly earnings and hourly wage. This result is not sensitive to the definition of informal employment used and is
stable over the analysed time period (2009–2017). However, the wage penalty to informal employment is substantially higher for individuals at the bottom of the wage distribution, which supports the hypothesis of the two-tier structure of the informal labour market in Poland.
Originality/value: The main contribution of this study is that it identifies the two-tier structure of the informal labour market in Poland: informal workers in the first quartile of the wage distribution and those above the first quartile appear to be in two partially different segments of the labour market.
The rule of law, by securing civil and economic rights, directly contributes to social prosperity and is one of our societies’ greatest achievements. In the European Union (EU), the rule of law is enshrined in the Treaties of its founding and is recognised not just as a necessary condition of a liberal democratic society, but also as an important requirement for a stable, effective, and sustainable market economy. In fact, it was the stability and equality of opportunity provided by the rule of law that enabled the post-war Wirtschaftswunder in Germany and the post-Communist resuscitation of the economy in Poland.
But the rule of law is a living concept that is constantly evolving – both in its formal, de jure dimension, embodied in legislation, and its de facto dimension, or its reception by society. In Poland, in particular, according to the EU, the rule of law has been heavily challenged by government since 2015 and has evolved amid continued pressure exerted on the institutions which execute laws. More recently, the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic transformed the perception of the rule of law and its boundaries throughout the EU and beyond (Marzocchi, 2020).
This Study contains Value Added Tax (VAT) Gap estimates for 2018, fast estimates using a simplified methodology for 2019, the year immediately preceding the analysis, and includes revised estimates for 2014-2017. It also includes the updated and extended results of the econometric analysis of VAT Gap determinants initiated and initially reported in the 2018 Report (Poniatowski et al., 2018). As a novelty, the econometric analysis to forecast potential impacts of the coronavirus crisis and resulting recession on the evolution of the VAT Gap in 2020 is reported.
In 2018, most European Union (EU) Member States (MS) saw a slight decrease in the pace of gross domestic product (GDP) growth, but the economic conditions for increasing tax compliance remained favourable. We estimate that the VAT total tax liability (VTTL) in 2018 increased by 3.6 percent whereas VAT revenue increased by 4.2 percent, leading to a decline in the VAT Gap in both relative and nominal terms. In relative terms, the EU-wide Gap dropped to 11 percent and EUR 140 billion. Fast estimates show that the VAT Gap will likely continue to decline in 2019.
Of the EU-28, the smallest Gaps were observed in Sweden (0.7 percent), Croatia (3.5 percent), and Finland (3.6 percent), the largest – in Romania (33.8 percent), Greece (30.1 percent), and Lithuania (25.9 percent). Overall, half of the EU-28 MS recorded a Gap above 9.2 percent. In nominal terms, the largest Gaps were recorded in Italy (EUR 35.4 billion), the United Kingdom (EUR 23.5 billion), and Germany (EUR 22 billion).
The euro is the second most important global currency after the US dollar. However, its international role has not increased since its inception in 1999. The private sector prefers using the US dollar rather than the euro because the financial market for US dollar-denominated assets is larger and deeper; network externalities and inertia also play a role. Increasing the attractiveness of the euro outside the euro area requires, among others, a proactive role for the European Central Bank and completing the Banking Union and Capital Market Union.
Forecasting during a strong shock is burdened with exceptionally high uncertainty. This gives rise to the temptation to formulate alarmist forecasts. Experiences from earlier pandemics, particularly those from the 20th century, for which we have the most data, don’t provide a basis for this. The mildest of them weakened growth by less than 1 percentage point, and the worst, the Spanish Flu, by 6 percentage points. Still, even the Spanish Flu never caused losses on the order of 20% of GDP – not even where it turned out to be a humanitarian disaster, costing the lives of 3-5% of the population. History suggests that if pandemics lead to such deep losses at all, it’s only in particular quarters and not over a whole year, as economic activity rebounds. The strength of that rebound is largely determined by economic policy. The purpose of this work is to describe possible scenarios for a rebound in Polish economic growth after the epidemic.
A separate issue, no less important, is what world will emerge from the current crisis. In the face of the 2008 financial crisis, White House Chief of Staff Rahm Emanuel said: “You never want a serious crisis to go to waste. And what I mean by that is an opportunity to do things that you think you could not do before.” Such changes can make the economy and society function better than before the crisis. Unfortunately, the opportunities created by the global financial crisis were squandered. Today’s task is more difficult; the scale of various problems has expanded even more. Without deep structural and institutional changes, the world will be facing enduring social and economic problems, accompanied by long-term stagnation.
"Many brilliant prophecies have appeared for the future of the EU and our entire planet. I believe that Europe, in its own style, will draw pragmatic conclusions from the crisis, not revolutionary ones; conclusions that will allow us to continue enjoying a Europe without borders. Brussels will demonstrate its usefulness; it will react ably and flexibly. First of all, contrary to the deceitful statements of members of the Polish government, the EU warned of the threats already in 2021. Secondly, already in mid-March EU assistance programs were ready, i.e. earlier than the PiS government’s “shield” program. The conclusion from the crisis will be a strengthening of all the preventive mechanisms that allow us to recognize threats and react in time of need. Research programs will be more strongly directed toward diagnosing and treating infectious diseases. Europe will gain greater self-sufficiency in the area of medical equipment and drugs, and the EU – greater competencies in the area of the health service, thus far entrusted to the member states. The 2021-27 budget must be reconstructed, to supplement the priority of the Green Deal with economic stimulus programs. In this way structural funds, which have the greatest multiplier effect for investment and the labor market, may return to favor. So once again: an addition, as a conclusion from the crisis, and not a reinvention of the EU," writes Dr. Janusz Lewandowski the author of the 162nd mBank-CASE seminar Proceeding.
Dla wielu rodaków europejskość Polski jest oczywista, trudno jest im nawet wyobrazić sobie, jak kształtowałyby się losy naszego kraju bez uczestnictwa w integracji europejskiej. Szczególnie młode pokolenie traktuje osiągnięty przez nas dzięki uczestnictwie w Unii ogromny postęp cywilizacyjny jako coś danego i naturalnego. Jednak świadomość tego, jaki był nasz punkt wyjścia, jaką przeszliśmy drogę i jak przyczyniły się do tego unijne działania oraz jakie wynikały z tego korzyści powinna nam stale towarzyszyć. Bez tej świadomości, starannego weryfikowania faktów i docenienia naszych osiągnięć grozi nam uleganie niesprawdzonym argumentom przeciwników integracji europejskiej i popełnienie nieodwracalnych błędów. Dla tych, którzy chcą poznać te fakty, przygotowany został raport "Nasza Europa. 15 lat Polski w Unii Europejskiej". Podjęto w nim ocenę 15 lat członkostwa Polski z perspektywy doświadczeń procesu integracji, z jego barierami i sukcesami, a także wyzwaniami przyszłości.
Raport jest wynikiem pracy zbiorowej licznych ekspertów z różnych dziedzin, od wielu lat analizujących wielowymiarowe efekty działania instytucji UE oraz współpracy z krajami członkowskimi na podstawie europejskich wartości i mechanizmów. Autorzy podsumowują korzyści członkostwa Polski w Unii Europejskiej na podstawie faktów, nie stroniąc jednakże od własnych ocen i refleksji.
This report is the result of the joint work of a number of experts from various fields who have been - for many years – analysing the multidimensional effects of EU institutions and cooperation with Member States pursuant to European values and mechanisms. The authors summarise the benefits of Poland’s membership in the EU based on facts; however, they do not hide their own views and reflections. They also demonstrate the barriers and challenges to further European integration.
This report was prepared by CASE, one of the oldest independent think tanks in Central and Eastern Europe, utilising its nearly 30 years of experience in providing objective analyses and recommendations with respect to socioeconomic topics. It is both an expression of concern about Poland’s future in the EU, as well as the authors’ contribution to the debate on further European integration.
Poland’s new Employee Capital Plans (PPK) scheme, which is mandatory for employers, started to be implemented in July 2019. The article looks at the systemic solutions applied in the programme from the perspective of the concept of the simultaneous reconstruction of the retirement pension system. The aim is to present arguments for and against the project from the point of view of various actors, and to assess the chances of success for the new system. The article offers a detailed study of legal solutions, an analysis of the literature on the subject, and reports of institutions that supervise pension funds. The results of this analysis point to the lack of cohesion between certain solutions of the 1999 pension reform and expose a lack of consistency in how the reform was carried out, which led to the eventual removal of the capital part of the pension system. The study shows that additional saving for old age is advisable in the country’s current demographic situation and necessary for both economic and social reasons. However, the systemic solutions offered by the government appear to be chiefly designated to serve short-term state interests and do not create sufficient incentives for pension plan participants to join the programme.
Belarus was among the few post-communist countries to resign from comprehensive market reforms and attempt to improve the efficiency of the economy through administrative means, leaving market mechanisms only an auxiliary role. Since its inception, the ‘Belarusian economic model’ has undergone several revisions of a de-statisation and de-regulation kind, but still the Belarusian economy remains dominated by the state. This paper analyses the characteristic features of the Belarusian economic system – especially those related to the public sector – as well as its evolution over time during the period following its independence. The paper concludes that during the post-Soviet period, the Belarusian economy evolved from a quasi-Soviet system based on state property, state planning, support to inefficient enterprises and the massive redistribution of funds to a more flexible hybrid model where the public sector still remains the core of the economy. The case of Belarus shows that presently there is no appropriate theoretical perspective which, in an unmodified form, could be applied to study this type of economic system. Therefore, a new perspective based on an already existing but updated approach or a multidisciplinary approach that incorporates the duality of the Belarusian economy is required.
Belarusian economy has been stagnating in 2011-2015 after 15 years of a high annual average growth rate. In 2015, after four years of stagnation, the Belarusian economy slid into a recession, its first since 1996, and experienced both cyclical and structural recessions. Since 2015, the Belarusian government and the National Bank of Belarus have been giving economic reforms a good chance thanks to gradual but consistent actions aimed at maintaining macroeconomic stability and economic liberalization. It seems that the economic authorities have sustained more transformation efforts during 2015-2018 than in the previous 24 years since 1991.
As the relative welfare level in Belarus is currently 64% compared to the Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) countries average, Belarus needs to build stronger fundaments of sustainable growth by continuing and accelerating the implementation of institutional transformation, primarily by fostering elimination of existing administrative mechanisms of inefficient resource allocation. Based on the experience of the CEE countries’ economic transformation, we highlight five lessons for the purpose of the economic reforms that Belarus still faces today: keeping macroeconomic stability, restructuring and improving the governance of state-owned enterprises, developing the financial market, increasing taxation efficiency, and deepening fiscal decentralization.
Inflation in advanced economies is low by historical standards but there is no threat of deflation. Slower economic growth is caused by supply-side constraints rather than low inflation. Below-the-target inflation does not damage the reputation of central banks. Thus, central banks should not try to bring inflation back to the targeted level of 2%. Rather, they should revise the inflation target downwards and publicly explain the rationale for such a move. Risks to the independence of central banks come from their additional mandates (beyond price stability) and populist politics.
Estonia has Europe’s most transparent tax system (while Poland is second-to-last, in 35th place), and is also known for its pioneering approach to taxation of legal persons’ income. Since 2000, payers of Estonian corporate tax don’t pay tax on their profits as long as they don’t realize them. In principle, this approach should make access to capital easier, spark investment by companies and contribute to faster economic growth. Are these and other positive effects really noticeable in Estonia? Have other countries followed in this country’s footsteps? Would deferment of income tax be possible and beneficial for Poland? How would this affect revenue from tax on corporate profits? Would investors come to see Poland as a tax haven? Does the Estonian system limit tax avoidance and evasion, or actually the opposite? Is such a system fair? Are intermediate solutions possible, which would combine the strengths or limit the weaknesses of the classical and Estonian models of profit tax? These questions are discussed in the mBank-CASE seminar Proceeding no. 163, written by Dmitri Jegorov, deputy general secretary of the Estonian Finance Ministry, who directs the country’s tax and customs policy, Dr. Anna Leszczyłowska of the Poznań University of Economics and Business and Aleksander Łożykowski of the Warsaw School of Economics.
The trade war between the U.S. and China began in March 2018. The American side raised import duties on aluminum and steel from China, which were later extended to other countries, including Canada, Mexico and the EU member states. This drew a negative reaction from those countries and bilateral negotiations with the U.S. In June 2018 America, referring to Section 301 of its 1974 Trade Act, raised tariffs to 25% on 818 groups of products imported from China, arguing that the tariff increase was a response to years of theft of American intellectual property and dishonest trade practices, which has caused the U.S. trade deficit.
Will this trade war mean the collapse of the multilateral trading system and a transition to bilateral relationships? What are the possibilities for increasing tariffs in light of World Trade Organization rules? Can the conflict be resolved using the WTO dispute-resolution mechanism? What are the consequences of the trade war for American consumers and producers, and for suppliers from other countries? How high will tariffs climb as a result of a global trade war? How far can trade volumes and GDP fall if the worst-case scenario comes to pass? Professor Jan J. Michałek and Dr. Przemysław Woźniak give answers to these questions in the mBank-CASE Seminar Proceeding No. 161.
This Report has been prepared for the European Commission, DG TAXUD under contract TAXUD/2017/DE/329, “Study and Reports on the VAT Gap in the EU-28 Member States” and serves as a follow-up to the six reports published between 2013 and 2018.
This Study contains new estimates of the Value Added Tax (VAT) Gap for 2017, as well as updated estimates for 2013-2016. As a novelty in this series of reports, so called “fast VAT Gap estimates” are also presented the year immediately preceding the analysis, namely for 2018. In addition, the study reports the results of the econometric analysis of VAT Gap determinants initiated and initially reported in the 2018 Report (Poniatowski et al., 2018). It also scrutinises the Policy Gap in 2017 as well as the contribution that reduced rates and exemptions made to the theoretical VAT revenue losses.
More from CASE Center for Social and Economic Research (20)
how can i use my minded pi coins I need some funds.DOT TECH
If you are interested in selling your pi coins, i have a verified pi merchant, who buys pi coins and resell them to exchanges looking forward to hold till mainnet launch.
Because the core team has announced that pi network will not be doing any pre-sale. The only way exchanges like huobi, bitmart and hotbit can get pi is by buying from miners.
Now a merchant stands in between these exchanges and the miners. As a link to make transactions smooth. Because right now in the enclosed mainnet you can't sell pi coins your self. You need the help of a merchant,
i will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant below. 👇 I and my friends has traded more than 3000pi coins with him successfully.
@Pi_vendor_247
how to swap pi coins to foreign currency withdrawable.DOT TECH
As of my last update, Pi is still in the testing phase and is not tradable on any exchanges.
However, Pi Network has announced plans to launch its Testnet and Mainnet in the future, which may include listing Pi on exchanges.
The current method for selling pi coins involves exchanging them with a pi vendor who purchases pi coins for investment reasons.
If you want to sell your pi coins, reach out to a pi vendor and sell them to anyone looking to sell pi coins from any country around the globe.
Below is the contact information for my personal pi vendor.
Telegram: @Pi_vendor_247
Even tho Pi network is not listed on any exchange yet.
Buying/Selling or investing in pi network coins is highly possible through the help of vendors. You can buy from vendors[ buy directly from the pi network miners and resell it]. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal vendor.
@Pi_vendor_247
Empowering the Unbanked: The Vital Role of NBFCs in Promoting Financial Inclu...Vighnesh Shashtri
In India, financial inclusion remains a critical challenge, with a significant portion of the population still unbanked. Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) have emerged as key players in bridging this gap by providing financial services to those often overlooked by traditional banking institutions. This article delves into how NBFCs are fostering financial inclusion and empowering the unbanked.
how can I sell pi coins after successfully completing KYCDOT TECH
Pi coins is not launched yet in any exchange 💱 this means it's not swappable, the current pi displaying on coin market cap is the iou version of pi. And you can learn all about that on my previous post.
RIGHT NOW THE ONLY WAY you can sell pi coins is through verified pi merchants. A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins and resell them to exchanges and crypto whales. Looking forward to hold massive quantities of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale or ico offerings, the only way to get my coins is from buying from miners. So a merchant facilitates the transactions between the miners and these exchanges holding pi.
I and my friends has sold more than 6000 pi coins successfully with this method. I will be happy to share the contact of my personal pi merchant. The one i trade with, if you have your own merchant you can trade with them. For those who are new.
Message: @Pi_vendor_247 on telegram.
I wouldn't advise you selling all percentage of the pi coins. Leave at least a before so its a win win during open mainnet. Have a nice day pioneers ♥️
#kyc #mainnet #picoins #pi #sellpi #piwallet
#pinetwork
Currently pi network is not tradable on binance or any other exchange because we are still in the enclosed mainnet.
Right now the only way to sell pi coins is by trading with a verified merchant.
What is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone verified by pi network team and allowed to barter pi coins for goods and services.
Since pi network is not doing any pre-sale The only way exchanges like binance/huobi or crypto whales can get pi is by buying from miners. And a merchant stands in between the exchanges and the miners.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant. I and my friends has traded more than 6000pi coins successfully
Tele-gram
@Pi_vendor_247
Exploring Abhay Bhutada’s Views After Poonawalla Fincorp’s Collaboration With...beulahfernandes8
The financial landscape in India has witnessed a significant development with the recent collaboration between Poonawalla Fincorp and IndusInd Bank.
The launch of the co-branded credit card, the IndusInd Bank Poonawalla Fincorp eLITE RuPay Platinum Credit Card, marks a major milestone for both entities.
This strategic move aims to redefine and elevate the banking experience for customers.
how to sell pi coins on Bitmart crypto exchangeDOT TECH
Yes. Pi network coins can be exchanged but not on bitmart exchange. Because pi network is still in the enclosed mainnet. The only way pioneers are able to trade pi coins is by reselling the pi coins to pi verified merchants.
A verified merchant is someone who buys pi network coins and resell it to exchanges looking forward to hold till mainnet launch.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
BYD SWOT Analysis and In-Depth Insights 2024.pptxmikemetalprod
Indepth analysis of the BYD 2024
BYD (Build Your Dreams) is a Chinese automaker and battery manufacturer that has snowballed over the past two decades to become a significant player in electric vehicles and global clean energy technology.
This SWOT analysis examines BYD's strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats as it competes in the fast-changing automotive and energy storage industries.
Founded in 1995 and headquartered in Shenzhen, BYD started as a battery company before expanding into automobiles in the early 2000s.
Initially manufacturing gasoline-powered vehicles, BYD focused on plug-in hybrid and fully electric vehicles, leveraging its expertise in battery technology.
Today, BYD is the world’s largest electric vehicle manufacturer, delivering over 1.2 million electric cars globally. The company also produces electric buses, trucks, forklifts, and rail transit.
On the energy side, BYD is a major supplier of rechargeable batteries for cell phones, laptops, electric vehicles, and energy storage systems.
where can I find a legit pi merchant onlineDOT TECH
Yes. This is very easy what you need is a recommendation from someone who has successfully traded pi coins before with a merchant.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi network coins and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold thousands of pi coins before the open mainnet.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with
@Pi_vendor_247
The Evolution of Non-Banking Financial Companies (NBFCs) in India: Challenges...beulahfernandes8
Role in Financial System
NBFCs are critical in bridging the financial inclusion gap.
They provide specialized financial services that cater to segments often neglected by traditional banks.
Economic Impact
NBFCs contribute significantly to India's GDP.
They support sectors like micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs), housing finance, and personal loans.
Turin Startup Ecosystem 2024 - Ricerca sulle Startup e il Sistema dell'Innov...Quotidiano Piemontese
Turin Startup Ecosystem 2024
Una ricerca de il Club degli Investitori, in collaborazione con ToTeM Torino Tech Map e con il supporto della ESCP Business School e di Growth Capital
Turin Startup Ecosystem 2024 - Ricerca sulle Startup e il Sistema dell'Innov...
CASE Network Studies and Analyses 334 - Time Varying Cyclical Analysis for Economies in Transition
1. S t u d i a i A n a l i z y
S t u d i e s & A n a l y s e s
C e n t r u m A n a l i z
S p o l e c z n o – E k o n o m i c z n y c h
C e n t e r f o r S o c i a l
a n d E c o n o m i c R e s e a r c h
334
Andrew Hughes Hallett, Christian R. Richter
Time Varying Cyclical Analysis for Economies in
Transition
W a r s a w , J a n u a r y 2 0 0 7
3. Studias & Analyses 334 - Andrew Hughes Hallett, Christian R Richter-Time Varying…
3
Contents
Abstract 5
Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 6
1. Time-Frequency Estimation: A Guided Tour ................................................................ 8
2. The Spectral Estimation Of Non-Stationary Processes...............................................10
3. Have The New Member States Converged On The Euro? ...........................................12
Conclusion..........................................................................................................................18
Bibliography .......................................................................................................................19
4. Studias & Analyses 334 - Andrew Hughes Hallett, Christian R Richter-Time Varying…
Andrew Hughes Hallett is Professor of Economics and Public Policy in the School of Public
Policy at George Mason University, and part-time at the University of St Andrews in Scotland.
From 2001 to 2006, he was Professor of Economics at Vanderbilt University (Nashville, TN) and
before then at the University of Strathclyde in Scotland. He is a graduate of the University of
Warwick (UK), holds a Doctorate from Oxford University, and was Visiting Professor in the
Economics Department at Princeton University and Fulbright Fellow (1992-4), Bundesbank
Professor at the Free University of Berlin (2005), and has been a visiting Professor at the
Universities of Frankfurt, Rome, and Paris X. He is currently a Research Fellow in the Centre for
Economic Policy Research in London; a Fellow of the Royal Society of Edinburgh (Scotland’s
Academy of Sciences) and former chair of their Economics Committee; joint editor of the Scottish
Journal of Political Economy; and correspondent for the American Mathematical Society. His
research interests are in the fields of international economic policy, the political economy of
monetary integration, the theory of economic policy. This includes game theory, dollarisation, the
role of fiscal policy; fiscal-monetary interactions; exchange rate regimes; optimal policy under
uncertainty; risk sharing; policies in transition or developing economies; the issue of structural
reform. He has also worked on problems of financial market stabilisation, and strategic trade
policy.
Dr. Christian Richter is a lecturer in Economics. He graduated from the Johannes Gutenberg
University (Mainz, Germany, 1994) with a degree in Economics. In 1996, he joined the Scottish
Doctoral Programme in Economics (then located at University of Glasgow) from which he
graduated in 1997 (MSc in Economics). He went on to University of Strathclyde in Glasgow
where he worked as Hallett’s research fellow for two years and completed his Ph.D. in
Economics in 2001. In 2002, he accepted a visiting lectureship at Cardiff University. He has
worked as research fellow of the Center of Economic and Business Research (CEBR) in
Copenhagen, Denmark and since 1995 has been a visiting professor at the Warsaw School of
Economics. In 2004, he joined Loughborough University. He was also an external examiner at
University of Klagenfurt, Austria and is visiting research fellow there. His research interests
include financial economics, macroeconomics, and econometrics (more recently - frequency
analysis). He is working also on a research project on rational expectations’ macromodelling with
Reinhard Neck (University of Klagenfurt, Austria).
4
5. Studias & Analyses 334 - Andrew Hughes Hallett, Christian R Richter-Time Varying…
5
Abstract
The identification of a possible European business cycle has been inconclusive and is
complicated by the enlargement to the new member states and their transition to market
economies. This paper shows how to decompose a business cycle into a time-frequency
framework in a way that allows us to accommodate structural breaks and nonstationary
variables. To illustrate, calculations of the growth rate spectrum and coherences for the
Hungarian, Polish, German and French economies show the instability of the transition
period. However, since then there has been convergence on the Eurozone economy at short
cycle lengths, but little convergence in long cycles. We argue that this shows evidence of
nominal convergence, but little real convergence. The Maastricht criteria for membership of
the Euro therefore need to be adapted to test for real convergence.
6. Studias & Analyses 334 - Andrew Hughes Hallett, Christian R Richter-Time Varying…
6
Introduction
Although the Eastern European member states joined the EU club only two years
ago, there is already discussion about when they will be able to join the Euro. Some see a
tight exchange rate band within the groups of candidates as a necessary pre-condition (Sell,
2000). Others, the Kok report (2004) for instance, argue that the candidates’ fiscal
expansions need to be better controlled. In a similar vein, Borowski (2004) argues that on
balance Poland would benefit significantly from EMU membership while Mandel and Tomsik
(2003) highlight the importance of real as well as nominal convergence. Janacek and
Janackova (2004) note that the new member states will not form an optimal currency area.
So the catch up process is the relevant issue – not Euro membership. The key question is:
how far have the new member states converged to Eurozone performance?
This question is not an easy one to answer. From a theoretical perspective,
neoclassical growth models show that every economy approaches a steady-state income
level determined by the discount rate, the elasticity of factor substitution, the depreciation
rate, capital share, and population growth. Once at the steady-state, the economy grows at a
constant rate. Thus, to the extent that the determinants of the steady-state are similar across
economies, convergence is expected. But if these determinants are different, they will not
converge. For example Sala-I-Martin (1996) shows a wide convergence of regions within
countries. Mankiw et al. (1992) also find evidence of convergence for a sample of OECD
countries at similar level of development over the years 1960-1985. But they reject the
convergence hypothesis in a wider sample of 75 economies when structures and the degree
of uncertainty vary a good deal more, as they do in the new accession countries. Dowrick
and Nguyen (1989), Wolff (1991), Barro and Sala-I-Martin (1992), Quah (1993) all reach
similar conclusions.
As far as the Eurozone is concerned, Artis and Zhang (1997), and Frankel and Rose
(1998) argue that if exchange rates are successfully pegged, business cycles are likely to
converge. On the other hand, Inklaar and de Haan (2000) do not find any evidence for a
European business cycle in practice; while Frankel and Rose (1998) and Prasad (1999)
argue that growing trade and financial links should lead to more correlation between
business cycles – especially within EMU. In fact Chauvet and Potter (2001) find that the US
business cycle was in line with the G7 from the mid 70s, but then diverged thereafter. Kiani
and Bidarkota (2003), Stock and Watson (2002, 2003) likewise find divergence caused by
structural breaks. All these results suggest a time-varying approach is going to be necessary
if we are to analyse the state of convergence among economies that are in transition from
7. Studias & Analyses 334 - Andrew Hughes Hallett, Christian R Richter-Time Varying…
planned to market economies. But structural characteristics will be important too. It appears
that cyclical correlations typically fall with the degree of industrial specialisation which
increases, both in Europe and beyond, as trade and financial integration intensify. In fact,
most recent studies suggest little convergence has taken place, and possibly divergence
driven by increasingly specialised industrial structures (Doyle and Faust, 2003; Kalemli-
Ozcan et al., 2001; Peersman and Smets, 2005).
The studies cited above all stress that the results in this literature are sensitive to: a)
the choice of coherence measure; b) the choice of cyclical measure; and c) the choice of
detrending measure used to identify the cycles. These sensitivities are emphasised in
Canova (1998). The advantages of a time-frequency approach are therefore:
It does not depend on any particular detrending technique, so we are free of the lack
of robustness found in most of the recent studies.
Our methods also do not have an “end-point problem” – no future information is used,
implied or required as in band-pass or trend projection methods.
There is no arbitrary selection of a smoothing parameter, such as in the HP algorithm,
or (equivalently) any arbitrary band-pass selection (Artis et al., 2004).
Nevertheless, any spectral approach is going to depend on a weighted sum of sine
and cosine functions. This is not restrictive if the spectra are allowed to be time-varying. Any
periodic function may be approximated by its Fourier expansion – a possibility that
encompasses non-differentiable functions, discontinuities and step functions. Hence, once
we have time-varying weights (the time-frequency approach) we can get almost any cyclical
shape. For example, to get long expansions, but short recessions, we need only a regular
business cycle plus a longer cycle whose weight increases above trend but decreases below
trend. This is important because many observers have commented on the typical shape of
economic cycles: long expansions, short recessions; expanding cycle lengths; and steeper
up phases than down phases (Peersman and Smets, 2005; Stock and Watson, 2002). A
time-varying spectral approach is therefore necessary to provide the flexibility to capture
those features; and the possibility of structural breaks in a period that covers the transition to
market economies, a transition to the European single market, the advent of the Euro, and
enlargement.
7
8. Studias & Analyses 334 - Andrew Hughes Hallett, Christian R Richter-Time Varying…
1. Time-Frequency Estimation: a guided tour
The Fourier transform (FT) is the standard tool for spectral analysis in the area of
signal processing. However, the FT is inadequate when the signal is nonstationary. Classicial
Fourier techniques only reveal the overall frequency content of these signals. Often it is more
important to know when those frequency components are present, and how they change.
As the conventional representations in the time domain or the frequency domain are
inadequate in the situations described above, an obvious solution is to seek a representation
of the signal as a two-variable function whose domain is the two-dimensional (t, f) space. Its
constant t-cross section should show the frequency or frequencies present at time t, and its
constant f-cross section the time or times at which frequency f is important. Such a
representation is a time-frequency representation (TFR).
This variation may be described by a function ( ) i f t , called the instantaneous
frequency (IF). A signal may have more than one IF. The IF of a signal x(t) is defined as
8
( )
( )
i
¶f
1 t
f t
ı (2.1)
2 t
=
p ¶
For the purposes of illustration we only consider mono-component signals here. A mono-component
signal is described in the (t, f) domain by one single “ridge”, corresponding to one
region of “energy concentration”. Furthermore, interpreting the crest of that ridge as a graph
of frequency against time, we require the IF of a mono-component signal to be a single
valued function of time. Such a mono-component signal the has the form
j ( t ) x(t) A(t)e f = (2.2)
where f(t) is differentiable and called the instantaneous phase of the signal, and A(t) is
real and positive - being the instantaneous amplitude. If s(t) itself is real, it can be expressed
as
s(t) = A(t) cos f(t) (2.3)
We also require s(t) to be analytic. A signal z(t) is said to be analytic if and only if
Z(f ) = 0 for f<0 (2.4)
9. Studias & Analyses 334 - Andrew Hughes Hallett, Christian R Richter-Time Varying…
where Z(f) is the Fourier transform of z(t). An analytic signal therefore contains no negative
frequencies, but it may have a spectral component at zero frequency.
Next we need to highlight the similarity and differences of the IF to “traditional”
spectral analysis. First, we may assume a constant-frequency signal such as
x(t) = a(t) cos(2pfc t + j) (2.5)
where fc is the constant frequency and j is also constant. As t increases by an increment
c 1/ f , the argument of the cosine function increases by 2p and the signal passes through one
cycle. So the period of the signal is c 1/ f , and the frequency (reciprocal of the period) is fc. In
view of (2.3), we now define
c f(t) = 2pf t + j (2.6)
Differentiating (2.6) with respect to t and solving it for fc , we obtain:
ı (2.7)
¶f
9
c
¶f
1 (t)
f
2 t
=
p ¶
Although the left-hand side of this equation (the frequency) is normally assumed to be
constant, the right hand side would be variable if ¶f(t) ¶t was a non-linear function of time.
Nevertheless, one can see the similarity to (2.1). Hence we can consider a Fourier transform
of f(t) as a generator of time varying frequencies:
j ( t ) z(t) a(t)e f = (2.8)
where a(t) > 0 and j =√-1. Let f(t) be evaluated at t = t1 and t = t2, where t2 > t1. If f(t) is
differentiable, there exists an interval of time t, between t1 and t2, such that
( )
( )
2 1 2 1
t
(t ) (t ) t t
t
¶f
f − f = −
¶
(2.9)
Let pi be the period of one particular oscillation of z(t), and let i i f =1 p . If 2 1 i t = t + p then
( ) ( ) 2 1 f t = f t + 2p so that equations (2.9) and (2.1) become:
( )
i
t
2 p
t
¶f
p =
¶
with ( )
( )
i
1 t
f t
ı
2 t
=
p ¶
(2.10)
10. Studias & Analyses 334 - Andrew Hughes Hallett, Christian R Richter-Time Varying…
Hence, t is an instant during a cycle of oscillation and fi is the frequency of that oscillation,
suggesting that fi(t) is the instantaneous frequency at time t as in the definition (2.1). Hence,
the IF is a time-frequency representation (TFR) in which time and frequency information is
displayed jointly. For practical purposes, the next question is how best to estimate the IF?
2. The Spectral Estimation of Non-Stationary Processes
In general, there two categories of TFR estimators available (Berry et al., 2001):
Parametric and Non-Parametric estimators. Parametric estimators require a priori
knowledge about an underlying model or model system which can reproduce the original
time series data. A popular model, and the one used in this paper as well, is the AR(p)
model. The AR model consists of a system driven by zero mean white noise, with the current
output depending on p past scaled outputs and the current input variable. Based upon p
scalar values, the IF can easily be computed if the AR(p) model is time-varying. The resulting
spectral estimators have been called “high-resolution” (Berry et al., 2001), because of their
ability to resolve closely spaced spectral components.
The second category (non-parametric estimators) do not presume that time series
data can be fitted into a specific model. The Short-Time Fourier Transform (STFT) is used
instead (Tomazic, 1996). The idea of the STFT is to perform a Fourier transform on a block
by block (a rolling window) basis, rather than to process the entire signal at once. The result
of such a transform can then be thought of as a signal’s frequency behaviour during the time
period corresponding to the current data block. For discrete time, and in order to highlight the
similarity to the parametric estimator, the STFT X(t, w) of a signal x(t) at time t and frequency
w can be written as (Narasimhan and Pavanalatha, 2004):
−
( ) ( ) ( )
w =Σ − (3.1)
X t, h k n x k e
10
N 1
j k
k 0
− w
=
where h(.) is a window function centred about zero. The STFT gives the spectral information
of the signal within the window at its current position. By sliding the window h(n) to different
positions it is possible to get the time-varying spectral characteristics of the signal. However,
the STFT assumes that the signal is stationary within the length of the window, where the
length of the window can be equal to one. To get better results in terms of isolating the signal
characteristics in time, and to reduce the non-stationarity problem, the window length would
11. Studias & Analyses 334 - Andrew Hughes Hallett, Christian R Richter-Time Varying…
be reduced. But this results in a poor frequency resolution, if estimated directly. Therefore
there is a trade off between frequency and time resolution. The main advantage of the STFT
is its ease of implementation. It is the most efficient method for computation (Lin, 1997).
Returning to the parametric methods, all of the parametric spectrum estimation
techniques, such as AR and ARMA models can be used for time-frequency analysis, if short-time
or local stationarity is assumed (see Boashash and Reilly 1992, or Kay 1989). Here it is
simply assumed that a signal s(t) can be generated using an ARMA process with a random
time series e(t). Mathematically that implies:
p q
( ) ( )
= −Σ − +Σ e − + e (3.2)
s(t) a s t k c t k (t)
k k
= =
k 1 k 1
where ak (k =1,2,...,p) and ck (k =1,2,...,q) are parameters to be estimated. The power
spectrum of the signal s(t) can be calculated from these parameters. By construction a time-varying
adaptive ARMA filter of the output signal y(t) can be made to approximate the input
=Σ − +Σ − (3.3)
y(t) a(t) x(t k) c(t) e(t k)
= =
1 c(t) e
11
signal x(t) as follows:
p q
k k
k 1 k 1
where a(t)k and c(t)k are time-varying parameters and e(t) is the estimation error. By using
the Fourier transform as in (2.8)-(2.10), we can derive the TFR of the spectrum:
2
q
2 j k
k
k 1
2
p
j k
k
k 1
s(t, )
1 a(t) e
− w
=
− w
=
s +
w =
+
Σ
Σ
(3.4)
where s2 is the residual variance. Thus, at any point in a time series, a power spectrum can
be calculated directly from the updated parameters of the model. Similarly, the power
spectrum for any particular time interval can be calculated by averaging the filter parameters
over that time interval. Hence, if updated at each point of time, (3.4) can be interpreted as an
STFT for each frequency with a window of 1, but avoiding the problems of cross-terms. The
advantage of this method is the increased spectral and temporal resolution. Monte Carlo
simulations have shown that this method provides narrow frequency peaks, permitting more
precise frequency identification and an enhanced ability to determine frequency changes at
any point in time (Lin and Chen, 1995). The main disadvantage is that the amplitude of
12. Studias & Analyses 334 - Andrew Hughes Hallett, Christian R Richter-Time Varying…
spectral peaks is largely dependent on the accuracy of the time series modelling of the signal
process.
Finally, given a time-varying spectral model, one can use the coefficients to calculate
the coherence or phase shift between them at any point of time. Moreover, the adaptive
spectrum method is independent of the particular time series estimator chosen. The Kalman
filter could be used just as well as recursive least squares for example. We in fact use the
Kalman filter here.
3. Have the New Member States converged on the Euro?
By way of illustration, figure 1 shows the spectrum for output growth in Hungary – one
of the accession countries for which we have reliable data from the start of the transition
period in 1989.
The Hungarian spectrum is typical of many small transition economies. It is
calculated from an AR(5) model using the methods described in section 3. In this case
middle length cycles (w = 1.0 to 1.5) are as important as the long cycles, except during the
transition period itself 1989-96, and they become more important after 1997. The picture is
dominated by the instability and general increase in variability during the transition phase.
Initially this involves a collapse of the existing cycles in 1988; followed by a sharp increase in
the variability of output at long cycles; and then a period of decline in the importance of the
long cycles, in favour of the continued importance of medium length cycles and a moderate
increase in the importance of very short cycles. This suggests some nominal short run (high
frequency) convergence in which the price mechanism adjusts to Hungary’s chief trading
partners. That would produce a similar pattern of cyclical importance as observed in the EU,
at the expense of real convergence at longer frequencies which would represent
globalisation within the world economy and give a similar cyclical pattern at the longer
frequencies to the US (for example).
12
13. Studias & Analyses 334 - Andrew Hughes Hallett, Christian R Richter-Time Varying…
13
Figure 1: Spectrum Hungary
0.1
1.1
2.1
81Q4
85Q1
88Q1
91Q1
94Q1
97Q1
00Q1
03Q1
0.1
0.08
0.06
0.04
0.02
0
0.12
Density
Frequency
Time
Coherence: We have calculated coherences for the Hungarian spectrum with those
for the Eurozone and Germany separately (the latter to help uncover any evidence of
“clustering” within the EU; and to make the distinction between convergence and
globalisation more clear). There is strong coherence between Hungary and the Eurozone –
but only at the shorter cycle lengths (w ³ 1.6) and only after 1991. Figure 2 has the details.
Consequently, there is evidence of convergence after the transition period starts; but it is
only at the high frequency end of the spectrum, and only with the Eurozone average – not
necessarily with any specific economy.
14. Studias & Analyses 334 - Andrew Hughes Hallett, Christian R Richter-Time Varying…
14
Figure 2: Coherence Hungary - Euroland
0.1
0.9
1.7
2.5
82Q3
84Q4
87Q1
89Q2
91Q3
93Q4
96Q1
98Q2
00Q3
02Q4
1
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0.9
Coherence
Frequency
Time
Second, it is clear that the coherence at the short end of the spectrum (w = 1.6, 2.4,
3.1) is strong, at 70% compared to 40% or less at the long frequencies. However, there is a
slight strengthening coherence at the long end by 2003. This suggests some real
convergence with the Eurozone has now started to take place without losses in coherence at
the short frequencies.
The big change however, is in the extreme volatility of the transition period (1992-3).
Here the coherence with the Eurozone and Germany jumps (across the board) from 40% or
50% to around 90%, before settling down to 40% and 60% after the transition. That
underlines the nominal nature of convergence so far. Interestingly, the coherence with
Germany (not shown here) is a little higher than with the Eurozone – and it is larger at short
cycles than it is at long cycles. The implication therefore is that the Hungarian economy is
becoming more like a core Eurozone economy in terms of market responses and trade, but
not in real terms (incomes, growth, output cycles and employment).
The Polish spectrum shows like the Hungarian spectrum a large degree of volatility
in particular around 1990. It is calculated from an AR(4) model. Over the sample period the
long run cycle disappeared in favour of a more common business cycle at a frequency of 1.0.
Interestingly, the impact of short cycles remained constant over the sample period. However,
15. Studias & Analyses 334 - Andrew Hughes Hallett, Christian R Richter-Time Varying…
given that the long cycle disappeared, short cycles gained in relative weight. The collapse of
the communist system therefore led to a less rigid business cycle. For convergence to
happen, the Polish economy needs higher growth rates than the rest of the Eurozone. A
prerequisite of higher growth rates may be that the economy is more flexible than the other
countries. It seems that this is what the spectrum shows. Since the long cycle lost
importance, the Polish economy became more flexible.
15
Figure 3: The Polish Spectrum
0.1
2.2
81Q4
84Q1
86Q1
88Q1
90Q1
92Q1
94Q1
96Q1
98Q1
00Q1
02Q1
0.06
0.05
0.04
0.03
0.02
0.01
0
Density
Frequency
Time
Coherence: Since the collapse of the communist system, the coherence with the
Eurozone is quite high at about 70% for shorter cycles. That is in the short-run, the Polish
economy really depends on the Eurozone. In the long-run though, there is scope for other
influences, e.g. the US. Moreover, in comparison with Hungary, the coherence shows that
the link of Poland to the Eurozone was very weak indeed during communist times: The
coherence is equal to zero at all frequencies. However, most recently, the coherence of
longer cycles increased to almost 68%.
In terms of convergence, the short-run high coherence between Poland and the Eurozone is
important. However, long-run developments matter as well, especially with regards to
monetary policy. If Poland was to join the Eurozone today, Poland can expect in the long-run
asymmetric effects from the common monetary policy. The question is whether this is in
Poland’s interest.
16. Studias & Analyses 334 - Andrew Hughes Hallett, Christian R Richter-Time Varying…
Figure 4: Coherence between Poland and the Eurozone
0.1
16
1
1.9
2.8
82Q3
89Q1
02Q1
95Q3
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
Coherence
Frequency
Time
Germany. We now compare the transition economies with an established member of
the Eurozone, namely Germany. The German growth rate was estimated as an AR(7) model.
Before reunification, the spectrum is fairly stable with a peak at a frequency of about 1.5.
After reunification Germany experienced a larger volatility as well. The long run cycle lost
temporarily its importance. Over time though a new shorter cycle emerged at a frequency of
2.2. That shows that the German business cycle has become more volatile in recent years.
In any case, the German economy is far from being in a steady state situation. That has
implications for Germany as well as for the Eurozone. For Germany it implies that the current
common monetary policy is not appropriate at the moment. For the Eurozone, it implies that
one important member state is out of step with the rest. Hence, the common monetary policy
may not be appropriate for the other members either.
17. Studias & Analyses 334 - Andrew Hughes Hallett, Christian R Richter-Time Varying…
17
Figure 5: The German Spectrum
0.1
0.8
1.5
2.2
73Q2.49
75Q3
77Q2
79Q1
80Q4
82Q3
84Q2
86Q1
87Q4
89Q3
91Q2
93Q1
94Q4
96Q3
98Q2
00Q1
01Q4
03Q3
05Q2
0.7
0.6
0.5
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
0.4
Coherence
Frequency
Time
France. We now compare the French spectrum with the German spectrum. For the
French growth rate we estimated an AR(4) model. In difference to the German spectrum, the
French spectrum looks very stable throughout the sample period. There is a single peak at a
frequency of 2. Obviously, there are changes of the spectral density when a shock occurs
(like in 1993). They key difference though is that the system returns after some time to the
initial shape. Having said that, in 2003 there is a significant change of the shape of the
spectrum. Since 2003, we have not yet enough observations to know what shape it will be,
but the dominant cycle lost power. This may be the start of a convergence of the German
and French cycle or not. In either case, all countries have their own characteristics. That
raises the question, to what the new member states should converge to? One particular
country of the existing Eurozone or the average?
18. Studias & Analyses 334 - Andrew Hughes Hallett, Christian R Richter-Time Varying…
18
Figure 6: the French Spectrum
0.1
1.5
2.9
72Q1
73Q2
74Q3
75Q4
77Q1
78Q2
79Q3
80Q4
82Q1
83Q2
84Q3
85Q4
87Q1
88Q2
89Q3
90Q4
92Q1
93Q2
94Q3
95Q4
97Q1
98Q2
99Q3
00Q4
02Q1
03Q2
04Q3
0.04
0.035
0.03
0.02
0.015
0.01
0.005
0
0.025
Density
Frequen
cy
Time
Conclusion
These results show that a time-varying spectral analysis can be used to uncover the
cyclical properties of nonstationary time series, even in extreme cases of a transition
between regimes. In the case of the new member states in Europe, it shows a difference
between real and nominal convergence. That suggests that the Maastricht criteria for
membership of the Euro-zone would be well advised to put at least as much emphasis on
ensuring real convergence as nominal convergence. It also suggests that full convergence is
likely to take 20 years or more.
We could also show, that Germany undergoes a structural change at the moment as
does France. In that sense Germany and the new member state do have something in
common. However, it highlights that the Eurozone has not yet settled to a common business
cycle. The question is whether the new member states really want to join into such a fragile
situation.
19. Studias & Analyses 334 - Andrew Hughes Hallett, Christian R Richter-Time Varying…
19
Bibliography
Artis, M., Marcellino, M., and Priorietti, T. (2004): Dating the Euro Area Business Cycle. In L.
Reichlin (Ed.): The Euro Area Business Cycle: Stylised Facts and Measurement
Issues, Centre for Economic Policy Research, London.
Artis, M., and Zhang, W. (1997): International Business Cycles and the ERM: Is there a
European Business Cycle? International Journal of Finance and Economics 2, 1-16.
Barro, R. J., and Sala-I-Martin, X. (1992): Convergence. Journal of Political Economy 100,
223-251.
Berry, J. L., Kim, H., and Baker, E. S. (2001): Low-frequency waves of Inflation and
Economic Growth: Digital Spectral Analysis. Technological Forecasting and Social
Change 68, 63-73.
Boashash, B., and Reilly, A. (1992): Algorithms for time-frequency signal analysis, pp. 163-
181. In B. Boashash (Ed.): Time-Frequency Signal Analysis - Methods and
Applications, Longman-Cheshire, Melbourne.
Borowski, J. (2004): Costs and Benefits of Poland's EMU Accession: a Tentative
Assessment. Comparative Economic Studies 46, 127-145.
Canova, F. (1998): Detrending and Business Cycle Facts. Journal of Monetary Economics
41, 475-512.
Chauvet, M., and Potter, S. (2001): Recent Changes in the US Business Cycle: mimeo,
University of California.
Dowrick, S., and Nguyen, D.-T. (1989): OECD comparative economic growth 1950-85.
American Economic Review 79, 1010-1030.
Doyle, B., and Faust, J. (2003): Breaks in the Variability and Comovement of G7 Economic
Growth. International Finance Discussion Paper, no 786, Board of Governors,
Federal Reserve System, Washington, DC.
Frankel, J., and Rose, A. (1998): The Endogeneity of the Optimal Currency Area Criteria.
Economic Journal 108, 1009-25.
Inklaar, R., and de Haan, J. (2000): Is there really a European Business Cycle? CESifo
Working Paper No 268.
Janacek, K., and Janackova, S. (2004): European Monetary Union and risks for real
convergence. Politicka Ekonomie 4, 435-450.
20. Studias & Analyses 334 - Andrew Hughes Hallett, Christian R Richter-Time Varying…
Kalemli-Ozcan, S., Sorenson, B., and Yosha, O. (2001): Economic Integration, Industrial
Specialisation, and the Asymmetry of Macroeconomic Fluctuations. Journal of
International Economics 55, 107-137.
Kay, S. (1989): Modern Spectral Analysis. Prentice-Hall. Englewood Cliffs, NJ.
Kiani, K. M., and Bidarkota, P. V. (2003): On Business Cycle Asymmetries in G7 Countries.
20
mimeo.
Kok Report (2004) "Facing the Challenge: The Lisbon Strategy for Growth and Employment"
European Commission, Brussels
(http://europa.eu.int/comm/lisbon_strategy/index_en)
Lin, Z. (1997): An Introduction to Time-Frequency Signal Analysis. Sensor Review 17, 46-53.
Lin, Z., and Chen, J. (1995): Comparison of three ruunning spectral analysis methods for
electrogastrographic signals. Medical & Biological Engineering & Computing 33, 596-
604.
Mandel, M., and Tomsik, V. (2003): The External and Internal Balance of the Convergence
Process of Transformation Economies to the EU. Current Politics and Economics of
Europe 12, 319-332.
Mankiw, N. G., Romer, D., and Weil, D. (1992): A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic
Growth. Quarterly Journal of Economics 107, 407-437.
Narasimhan, S. V., and Pavanalatha, S. (2004): Estimation oof evolutionary spectrum based
on short time Fourier transform and modified group delay. Signal Processing 84,
2139-2152.
Peersman, G., and Smets, F. (2005): Industry Effects of Monetary Policy in the Euro Area.
Economic Journal 115, 319-342.
Prasad, E. S. (1999): International Trade and the Business Cycle. The Economic Journal
109, 588-606.
Quah, D. T. (1993): Galton's Fallacy and Tests of the Convergence Hypothesis.
Scandinavian Journal of Economics 95, 427-443.
Sala-I-Martin, X. (1996): Regional Cohesion: Evidence and Theories of Regional Growth and
Convergence. European Economic Review 40, 1325-1352.
Sell, F. L. (2000): Die EWU als Club: Implikationen für die Beitrittsstrategie(n) mittel- und
osteuropäischer Reformstaaten. Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik 49, 313-343.
21. Studias & Analyses 334 - Andrew Hughes Hallett, Christian R Richter-Time Varying…
Stock, J. H., and Watson, M. W. (2002): Has the Business Cycle Changed and Why? NBER
21
Working paper No 9127.
Stock, J. H., and Watson, M. W. (2003): Understanding Changes in the International
Business Cycles. NBER Working paper No 9859.
Tomazic, S. (1996): On Short-Time Fourier Transform with Single-Sided Exponential
Window. Signal Processing 55, 141-148.
Wolff, E. N. (1991): Capital formation and productivity convergence over the long term.
American Economic Review 81, 565-579.