This presentation entitled, The Online Education Landscape, was made as part of the CUNY Graduate Center Program in Urban Education Career Night Series. February 11, 2016.

1. Anthony G. Picciano
CUNY Graduate Center and Hunter College
The Online Education Landscape:
Implications for Teaching and Learning
Career Night – Ph.D. Program in Urban Education
Graduate Center – City University of New York
February 2016

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Teaching and Learning in 2016 –
Different Scenarios!

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Presentation Outline
.The Evolution of Online Learning
.Beginnings - Pre-Internet
.The 1st Wave (Beginnings) – 1990s
.The 2nd Wave (Blending Into the Mainstream) – Early 2000s to 2008
.The 3rd Wave (The MOOC Phenomenon) – 2008 to 2013
.The 4th Wave (Reconciliation of Blending & MOOCs) – 2014 -> 2020s
.The Future – 2030 and Beyond
.Questions

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“There are more people in the world than ever before, and a far greater part
of them want an education. The demand cannot be met simply by building more
schools and training more teachers. Education must become more efficient. To
this end curricula must be realized and simplified, and textbooks and classroom
techniques improved. In any other field a demand for increased production would
have led at once to the invention of labor-saving capital equipment. Education
has reached this stage very late, possibly through a misconception of its task.
Thanks to the advent of technology…These tools are finding their way
into American schools and colleges...
allowing each student to proceed at his own pace
to receive immediate feedback
to play an active role [where] there is constant interchange between program and student
to have access to charts, maps, graphs, models…”
Skinner, B.F. (1958). Teaching machines. Science, 128 , 969-977.

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Pre-Internet
.1950s/60s - B.F. Skinner – Teaching Machines
.1960s/70s - Patrick Suppes (Stanford University) – C.A.I.
.1980s/90s - Intelligent/Integrated Learning Systems
(Jostens, Wicat, Computer Curriculum Corporation)

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Source: Allen, E & Seaman, J. (2014). Grade change: Tracking online education in the
United States. Needham, MA: Babson College Survey Research Group.
The Extent of Online Learning

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The 1st Wave (Beginnings) – 1990s
•Technology – Slow-speed Internet
•Model – Pedagogical – Asynchronous Learning Network (ALN)/Largely Text-Based
•Key Players – Mostly Public Universities, Community Colleges, and For-Profit Colleges with already
established distance learning programs (i.e., UMUC, Penn State World Campus, SUNY Empire State, APUS)
For-Profits (i.e., U of Phoenix) invest tens of millions of dollars into online education.
.Enrollment – 100,000s of students enrolled each year in for-credit courses – 1 million in 2000
.Research – Mostly small-scale individual faculty evaluating their own work
Phipps, Ronald; Merisotis, Jamie (1999). What's the Difference? A Review of Contemporary
Research on the Effectiveness of Distance Learning in Higher Education.
Institute for Higher Education Policy, NEA, and American Federation of Teachers,
.Concerns – Neil Postman (The End of Education); David Noble (Digital Diploma Mills)

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The 2nd Wave (Blending Into the Mainstream) –
Early 2000s to 2008
•Technology – High-Speed Internet (Cable modems, DSL)
•Model – Pedagogical - Blended Learning /Social and Multi-Media/Open Resources Evolve
•Key Players – Mainstream Public Higher Education, Tuition-driven Non-Profits, For-Profits
.Enrollment – Millions of students enrolled each year in for-credit courses – 5 million by 2008
•Research – U.S. Department of Education (U.S. DOE), Office of Planning, Evaluation, and Policy
Development, Evaluation of evidence-based practices in online learning: A meta-analysis
and review of online learning studies, Washington, D.C., 2010. Retrieved November 25,
2014 from: http://www2.ed.gov/rschstat/eval/tech/evidence-based-practices/finalreport.pdf
.Concerns – For-Profit Colleges and Universities Scale Up/Issues of Federal Financial Aid

9. Blended Learning Conceptualization
Conventional
Face to Face
Classroom
Fully
Online
Blended
Source: Picciano, A.G, & Dzuiban, C. (2007). Blended learning: Research perspectives. Needham, MA: The Sloan
Consortium.http://www.sloan-c.org/publications/books/index.asp

10. Blended Learning Conceptualization
Conventional
Face to Face
Classroom
Fully Online
Minimal Technology/Media
Technology/Media Infused
Blended Blended
Blended Blended
Students meet f2f
– teacher uses
simple technology
such as email, or
web for e-lectures.
Students meet f2f –
teacher uses
technology such as
simulations, tutorials,
video presentations.
Students meet online -
teacher uses simple
technology such as
CMS, discussion
boards, blogs.
Students meet online
– teacher uses
advanced technology
such as interactive
videoconferencing,
gaming, MUVE.

11. Synthesis/ Evaluation
(Assignments/Assessment)
Papers, Tests, Student
Presentations (PPT,
YouTube), E-Portfolios,
Learning Analytics)
Blending with Purpose: The Multimodal Model
Reflection
(Blog, Journal)
Collaboration/Student
Generated Content
(Wiki, Mobile Tech)
Social/Emotional
(F2F)
Dialectic/Questioning
(Discussion Board)
Content
(LMS/CMS/Media/
Games/MUVE)
Source: Picciano (2009).

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Blending with Purpose – The Multimodal Model
Synthesis/ Evaluation
(Assignments/Assessment)
Papers, Tests, Student
Presentations (PPT,
YouTube), E-Portfolios
Reflection
(Blog, Journal)
Collaboration/Student
Generated Content
(Wiki, Mobile Tech)
Social/Emotional
(F2F)
Dialectic/Questioning
(Discussion Board)
Blended
Ecosystem
Content
(LMS/CMS/Media/
Games/MUVE)

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The 3rd
Wave (Massive Open Online Courses - MOOC) –
2008 to 2013
•Technology – High-Speed Internet – Wi-Fi – Mobile Computing
•Pedagogical Model – MOOC – Access/Cost Benefit Model/
Multi-Media Infused
Open Source Expands
•Key Players – Non-Profit Private Universities (Stanford, M.I.T., Harvard).
Venture capitalists and corporate-affiliated foundations spur MOOC development.
.Enrollment – Millions of students enrolled each year in credit and non-credit bearing courses.
7 million students enrolled in fully online for-credit courses in 2013.
.Research – High student dropout rates (as much as 95%)
Poor student outcomes (San Jose University Study – 2013)
.Concerns – MOOCs create media frenzy/Online learning overhyped as a silver bullet
Sebastian Thrun (Founder of Udacity – “We have a lousy product!”)

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The 4thWave – 2014 -> 2020s
•Technology – Super High-Speed Internet – Wi-Fi - Mobile Computing/Tablets – Cloud Computing
•Model – Reconciliation of the 2nd Wave Blended Learning Pedagogy & 3rd
Wave Access/MOOC Models PLUS
I. Learning Analytics
II. Adaptive Learning/Differentiated Instruction/Personalized Learning
III. Social Media - Collaboration
IV. Open Sources/Learning Objects
V. Gaming/MUVE
Key Players – All of education.
Enrollment – Millions of students enrolled each year in credit and non-credit bearing courses.
Almost 8 million students enrolled in fully online for-credit courses in 2014.
•Research – Moving away from modality comparisons. Student issues (retention) and
faculty issues (instructional effort, time on task)
•Concerns – What is the future of education?

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Learning Analytics

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Adaptive Learning/Differentiated Instruction/
Personalized Learning

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Social Media and Collaborative Learning

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Open Source and Learning Objects

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Gaming and MUVEs

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The Future – Late 2020s/2030 and Beyond
• Nanotechnology -> Quantum Computing
• Super Cloud Computing (IBM’s Watson Prototype)
• Man-Machine Interfaces/Artificial Intelligence
( i.e., Neural Implants, Brainets, Nanobots)

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Challenge to Educators
The Chronicle of Higher Education in a survey of college presidents (N=349) focused on
the future of innovation in higher education. (2014)
•Direction: Two-thirds of presidents of public institutions think that higher education is
headed in the right direction, as do well over half of their private campus peers.
•Modality: An overwhelming majority of presidents—three quarters at private
institutions and even more at public campuses—think that blended courses that contain
both face-to-face and online components will have a positive impact on higher education
•Focus: Presidents say that when it comes to innovation in higher education, reformers
pay too much attention to cutting costs and not enough to changing the model of
teaching and learning.
•Change drivers: Two-thirds of public-institution presidents think that politicians are the
most influential drivers of change in higher education and half of private-campus
presidents agree with that assessment. The presidents on both types of campuses believe
strongly that faculty should be the number one drivers of change.

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Challenge to Educators
Test / Experiment with the technology.
Use / Improve that which works.
Discard that which does not work.
Whatever you do, do not ignore it.

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Questions?

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Visit me at:
anthonypicciano.com
http://apicciano.commons.gc.cuny.edu/

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Further Reading
Allen, E & Seaman, J. (2014). Grade change: Tracking online education in the United States. Needham, MA: Babson College Survey Research
Group.
•Collins, E.D. (2013). Preliminary Summary SJSA+ Augmented Online Learning Environment Pilot Project.
•http://www.sjsu.edu/chemistry/People/Faculty/Collins_Research_Page/AOLE%20Report%20-September%2010%202013%20final.pdf
Means, B. , Bakia, M, & Murphy, R. (2014). Learning online: What research tells about whether, when and how. New York: Routledge/Taylor &
Francis, Publishers.
Means, B., Toyama, Y., Murphy, R., Bakia, M., & Jones, K. (2010). Evaluation of evidence-based practices in online learning: A meta-analysis
and review of online learning studies. Washington D.C.: U.S. Department of Education. http://www2.ed.gov/rschstat/eval/tech/evidence-based-
practices/finalreport.pdf
Phipps, Ronald; Merisotis, Jamie (1999). What's the Difference? A Review of Contemporary
Research on the Effectiveness of Distance Learning in Higher Education. Institute for Higher Education Policy, NEA, and American Federation of
Teachers, http://files.eric.ed.gov/fulltext/ED429524.pdf
Picciano, A.G. (in press). Online Education Policy and Practice: The Past, Present, and Future of the Digital University. New York: Taylor &
Francis/Routledge Publishers.
Picciano, A.G., Dziuban, C., & Graham, C. (Eds.) (2014). Blended Learning: Research Perspectives, Volume 2. New York: Taylor &
Francis/Routledge Publishers.
Picciano, A.G. (2009). Blending with purpose: The multimodal model. Journal of the Research Center for Educational Technology, 5(1). Kent,
Oh: Kent State University. http://www.rcetj.org/index.php/rcetj/article/view/11
Selingo, J.J. (Editor) (2014). The Innovative University: What College Presidents Think About Change in American Higher Education is based on a
survey conducted by Maguire Associates, Inc.. Published by The Chronicle of Higher Education. http://app.results.chronicle.com/e/es.aspx?
s=2423&e=89593&elq=cd9973526e504845837bbada16e5b345