Recommended
More Related Content
Similar to Car Presentation.pptx
Similar to Car Presentation.pptx (20)
Recently uploaded
Recently uploaded (20)
Car Presentation.pptx
- 1. AMS Automotive EVolution 2022 Summit 18 May, 2022 Edgar Faler – Senior Industry Analyst
- 2. 2 CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH THE CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH (CAR) Consortia that bring together industry stakeholders to participate in working groups, networking opportunities, and access to CAR staff. RESEARCH EVENTS CONNECT Industry-driven events and conferences that deliver content, context, and connections. Independent research and analysis on critical issues facing the industry. Our mission is to produce independent research, convene stakeholders, and analyze critical issues facing the mobility industry and its impact on the economy and society.
- 3. 3 Electrified Vehicles take up 11.9% of the U.S. market 0.6% 3.1% 3.2% 6.7% 6.7% 10.1% 11.9% 18.5% 39.0% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% Large Car Van Luxury Car Small Car Middle Car SUV Electrified Pickup CUV Market Share: Light Vehicle Segment Breakdown U.S. Light Vehicle Sales 2022 YTD Through April Note: Electrified Segment consists of BEVs, HEVs and PHEVs; all other segments are sales exclusive of Hybrid models Source: Wards Automotive Reports and CAR Research
- 4. 4 Electrified vehicles see a massive increase in year-to-date sales since last year -37.1% -33.9% -22.1% -22.0% -21.2% -19.9% -12.8% -12.6% -5.1% 6.8% 24.1% 63.6% -16.6% -60% -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% Small Car Van Luxury Car Middle Car CUV Large Car Pickup Fuel Cell SUV Hybrid PHEV BEV Total Segment Breakdown: U.S. Light Vehicles Sales Percent Change 2022 YTD vs. 2021 YTD Through April Note: All other segments are sales exclusive of Hybrid models Source: Wards Automotive Reports and CAR Research
- 5. 5 Impact of EV on Automotive Ecosystem Trends via CAR Research CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH Automakers Disrupting value chain and ecosystem, i.e., new centers of influence Transition from ICE to BEV to affect manufacturing footprint and processes Dealers Dealers model affected by new BEV upstarts and reduced maintenance requirements Build-to-order to likely coexist with traditional “push” sales strategies Suppliers New emerging supply base for electrified powertrains Vertical integration by automakers to disrupt traditional suppliers Risk of critical mineral shortages End Customers Customer concerns remain to be addressed before mass adoption, e.g. range anxiety, convenience, and cost EV’s to elevate customer expectations for vehicle digital experiences Government Regulations Government regulations and incentives to play important role for EV investment and ESG strategies CAR to publish “white papers” and research Sources: CAR research
- 6. 6 CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH Sources: CAR research, Wards historical 2020-2021; forecasts as of 27 April, 2022 Forecasting Dilemma = OEM Planning Challenges U.S. EV sales %-total 2020-2021 actual; 2022-2030 projected
- 7. 7 CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH 7 North American Electrified Vehicle Production Models & Volumes Projected to Grow Substantially 2020 – 2028 Forecast Source: LMC Automotive 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 ELECTRIFIED NAMEPLATES PRODUCED IN NORTH AMERICAN PLANTS (#) BEV PHEV FHEV MHEV EREV FCEV 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 45.0% 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 Millions TOTAL ELECTRIFIED VEHICLES PRODUCED IN NORTH AMERICAN PLANTS (%-TOTAL) MHEV Total MHEV (48V) Total FHEV Total EREV Total FCEV Total PHEV Total BEV Total Grand Total Electrified share Grand Total BEV/PHEV/FCEV share
- 8. 8 CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH EV Releases, Sales, and Production Projections 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2027 2030 Rivian Production begins in their Georgia plant Audi Starts production in Chinese that aims to produce 150,000 EVs/year Genesis EVs will be the only new models Ford Have sold a total of 1M EVs Begins battery production in Kentucky plant GM 30 models by this time Kia 20% of sales in Euro, NA, and Korea will be EVs Audi 20 models by this time VW ID.2 production will begin Ram Ram 1500 EV released Mercedes 50% of sales to be EVs Nissan EV plant will begin assembly in Mississippi Kia 14 EV models by this time GM 400,000 EVs delivered Ford 600,000 EVs produced Kia Two EV models will be released VW Ability to produce 1M EVs/year in China Stellantis First Jeep EV released Source: Ford 40%-50% of global vehicle volume to be electric Subaru 40% of global sales will be EVs or HEVs GM 50% of NA assembly capacity will be converted to EV production GM 70% of Euro sales will be EVs Hyundai Sell 1.87M EV/year 11 New models Kia Sell 1.2M EV/year Volvo Fully Electric Toyota Sell 3.5M EVs/year Stellantis 50% of US sales BEV 100 % of Euro sales BEV 25 models by this time Nissan 40% of sales to be EVs Genesis Internal combustion vehicles phased out Tesla 936k EVs delivered Ford Mache E sells over 27,000 Audi 80,000 EV sold GM Chevy sold over 20,000 EVs Mercedes 99,000 EVs sold Jaguar i-Pace sold 9,970 Rivian Delivered and sold around 1,000 EVs Kia Over 8,000 EVs sold VW 263K BEVs delivered Volvo 25K BEVs sold GM Six-fold increase in EV truck and SUV production Ford Projecting at least a 25% growth in EV revenue and several new models Tesla Projecting over 1.4M EVs delivered
- 9. 9 CENTER FOR AUTOMOTIVE RESEARCH Announced Automaker AV/EV-Related Investments by Country 2015 to February 2022 The automotive industry has invested heavily in Electrified Vehicle (EV) and Automated Vehicle (AV) technology and capacity since 2017. In 2021 and the beginning of 2022, some of the largest investments in the U.S. automotive industry history were announced, totaling more than USD 40.0 billion. 1) Ford: Blue Oval City and Blue Oval SK, USD 11.4 billion total 2) Rivian: Texas assembly plant and Georgia assembly plant, USD 10 billion total 3) Hyundai-Kia: for EVs, and hydrogen fueling infrastructure, USD 7.4 billion 4) Stellantis and LG Energy joint venture battery manufacturing facility in Windsor, Canada, CAD 5.0 billion (USD 4.1 billion) $0 $5 $10 $15 $20 $25 $30 $35 $40 $45 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 YTD Billions USA MEXICO CANADA Source: CAR Book of Deals Database
Editor's Notes
- Updated: 5/4/2022 By: Tina
- Updated: 5/4/2022 By: Yen edit
- The number of electrified vehicle models produced in North America is forecast to rapidly increase, 62 in 2020 doubling by 2022 and reaching 278 by 2028 (4.5X). Volume increases from 1.2M to 6.7M (5.6X) (half BEV/PHEV/FCEV)
- Methodology and sources: Only represented if the following conditions apply: Official company announcement or statement by corporate officer Reference to specific year, if not more specific Specified SAE J3016 level 3+ or provides enough detail to be confidently inferred Mixed vehicle traffic (does not include protected guideways or pedestrian-only zones) If level 4/5, no human operator (really) Motional: https://motional.com/news/introducing-motionals-next-generation-robotaxi-the-hyundai-ioniq-5 Udelve (Intel-Mobileye ADS): https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/newsroom/news/mobileye-udelv-deal-autonomous-delivery.html TransDev (Mobileye ADS): https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/newsroom/news/mobileye-transdev-ats-lohr-group-av-shuttles.html Waymo: https://www.theverge.com/2017/11/7/16615290/waymo-self-driving-safety-driver-chandler-autonomous - https://finance.yahoo.com/news/waymo-tests-rider-only-looks-170335188.html https://twitter.com/EricPaulDennis/status/1227618453743374338?s=20 Audi: https://www.audiusa.com/newsroom/topics/2016/audi-piloted-driving - http://spectrum.ieee.org/cars-that-think/transportation/self-driving/nvidia-ceo-announces http://audimagazine.com.au/post/audi-ai-traffic-jam-pilot https://blog.caranddriver.com/traffic-jamming-in-the-2019-audi-a8-we-let-automated-driving-tech-take-the-wheel/ Also, that guy Stadler said level 5 by 2025-2030 but he was later arrested and fired. Program cancelled: https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/audi-quits-bid-give-a8-level-3-autonomy Level 4: https://spectrum.ieee.org/cars-that-think/transportation/self-driving/nvidia-ceo-announces Lyft (GM ADS): https://medium.com/@johnzimmer/the-third-transportation-revolution-27860f05fa91#.w4y2aw3ug Ford-Argo: https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/fna/us/en/news/2016/08/16/ford-targets-fully-autonomous-vehicle-for-ride-sharing-in-2021.html https://fordauthority.com/2020/04/ford-autonomous-vehicle-services-postponed-until-2022-because-of-covid-19/ Argo-Lyft tie-up stated YES safety drivers : https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/fna/us/en/news/2021/07/21/argo-ai-ford-lyft-network.html BMW: https://www.press.bmwgroup.com/global/article/detail/T0261586EN/bmw-group-intel-and-mobileye-team-up-to-bring-fully-autonomous-driving-to-streets-by-2021?language=en https://www.bmwblog.com/2017/10/29/bmw-shares-us-autonomous-technology-roadmap/ https://www.bmwblog.com/2018/09/24/klaus-frohlich-to-talks-about-bmw-inext/ https://bmwmovement.org/bmw-releases-safety-assessment-report-of-autonomous-vehicle-testing/ Mercedes: https://europe.autonews.com/article/20170310/ANE/170309921/daimler-r-d-boss-outlines-mercedes-self-driving-ev-connectivity-plans http://www.forbes.com/sites/matthewdepaula/2013/09/30/autonomous-driving-will-become-an-option-on-regular-mercedes-models-by-2020/#594c825d275c https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/motor-shows-shanghai-auto-show/mercedes-owners-drive-hands-free-autonomous-tech-2020 - https://www.futurecar.com/2728/Mercedes-to-Offer-Level-3-Autonomous-Driving-on-the-Next-S-Class https://www.daimler.com/innovation/case/autonomous/legal-framework.html Volvo: http://www.businessinsider.com/volvos-first-self-driving-car-is-coming-in-2020-2016-5 http://www.nydailynews.com/autos/news/volvo-self-driving-car-technology-pilot-program-gothenburg-article-1.3442614 http://www.autonews.com/article/20171212/COPY01/312129966/volvos-drive-me-takes-detour-on-road-to-full-autonomy https://www.thecarconnection.com/news/1117336_self-driving-volvo-xc90-crossover-suv-planned-for-2021 VW (Mobileye ADS) https://newsroom.intel.com/news-releases/volkswagen-mobileye-champion-motors-invest-israel-deploy-first-autonomous-ev-ride-hailing-service/#gs.3eiy82 https://www.calcalistech.com/ctech/articles/0,7340,L-3754013,00.html VW (Argo ADS) https://media.vw.com/en-us/releases/1481 VW-Audi (2021) This was previously in their “Strategy 2025 Plan.” It no longer is and I lost a good link. Here’s a Wayback link: https://web.archive.org/web/20170808175159/http://www.volkswagenag.com/presence/konzern/pdf/Group_Initiatives_Strategy_2025.pdf https://web.archive.org/web/20170831092154/http://together.volkswagenag.com:80/en/ Moar VW: Vague plans for 2030: https://techcrunch.com/2021/07/13/volkswagens-new-business-strategy-puts-software-and-autonomous-driving-front-and-center/ https://www.volkswagenag.com/en/group/strategy.html “The aim of the fifth initiative is to bring highly automated driving functions to market as a core competency from 2021. This involves private vehicles, shared mobility systems and commercial mobility providers.” Comma.AI: https://youtu.be/aqdYbwY9vPU?t=1185 “It’s going to be at least another 3 years before we solve the problem.” https://twitter.com/comma_ai/status/939221105272692736 2getthere: https://www.maakindustrie.nl/nieuws/autonome-parkshuttle-gaat-openbare-weg-rijden (confirmed via Twitter) , later said, “late 2020, early 2021” https://twitter.com/2getthereZF/status/1176899924463456256?s=20 old promise: https://www.2getthere.eu/1st-autonomous-vehicle-public-road/ Cruise: Dan Ammann, November 30 2017, investor conference. Repeated several times since even by Barra and Vought https://www.reuters.com/article/us-gm-autonomous/gm-plans-large-scale-launch-of-self-driving-cars-in-u-s-cities-in-2019-idUSKBN1DU2H0 And kaput. https://medium.com/cruise/the-next-steps-to-scale-start-in-san-francisco-713315f3a142 Dubai: https://www.mediaoffice.ae/en/news/2021/April/12-04/Hamdan-bin-Mohammed-attends-signing-of-agreement-between-RTA-and-Cruise-to-operate-self#.YHheusjViRo.twitter Tesla: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tesla-selfdriving-idUSBRE98H01720130918 http://fortune.com/2015/12/21/elon-musk-interview/ https://electrek.co/2017/12/08/elon-musk-tesla-self-driving-timeline/ https://seekingalpha.com/article/4298445-tesla-inc-tsla-ceo-elon-musk-q3-2019-results-earnings-call-transcript?part=single https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/elon-musk-full-self-driving-tesla-earnings-call/#:~:text=According%20to%20Musk%2C%20the%20FSD,%2C%22%20according%20to%20the%20CEO. Honda: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/honda-still-on-track-for-at-least-some-kind-of-self-driving-car-in-2020-2019-12-09?mod=mw_share_twitter https://www.theverge.com/2017/6/8/15761272/honda-self-driving-cars-autonomous-level-4-date https://hondanews.com/en-US/releases/release-e86048ba0d6e80b260e72d443f0e4d47-honda-launches-next-generation-honda-sensing-elite-safety-system-with-level-3-automated-driving-features-in-japan <- Have not confirmed these have actually been leased to peoples. Transdev (Mobileye ADS): https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/newsroom/news/mobileye-transdev-ats-lohr-group-av-shuttles.html Nissan: https://newsroom.nissan-europe.com/uk/en-gb/media/videos/108589/nissan-announces-autonomous-drive-plan-by-2020 Andy Palmer “True independence and mobility for all.” TBF, said this WAY back in 2013. Later said 2022. Revision? Something else? https://www.nissanusa.com/blog/autonomous-drive-car https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-06/nissan-plans-to-introduce-fully-autonomous-driving-cars-in-2022 Nuro: https://medium.com/nuro/az-pilot-launch-33cceb55c871 Mobileye with SIXT – Doesn’t actually pledge to remove driver in 2022. https://www.intel.com/content/www/us/en/newsroom/news/mobileye-sixt-plan-new-robotaxi-service.html May Mobility: https://medium.com/mobility-entrepreneurship/interview-with-alisyn-malek-co-founder-and-coo-of-may-mobility-bbdd48dfe5c Drive.AI https://www.theverge.com/2018/7/30/17622540/drive-ai-self-driving-car-ride-share-texas “Goal is to pull driver out of vehicle by end of year.” Rivian: https://www.rivian.com/technology Plan 2020 debut of electric pickup. Website claims level 3 automation will be standard. Baidu: http://apollo.auto/ Project Apollo timeline: 2019 “Production-level Geo-fenced city roads autonomous driving” TuSimple: Chief Product officer pegs late 2020 to 2021 for “commercial driverless operation.” https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/economics/self-driving-truck-startup-tusimple-confident-of-commercial-driverless-by-2021--FY5ce4I4UCGUPXRgzavRQ/ VP of Product actually claimed technology will be ready by late 2020 (but I don’;t have room in that year) https://www.ttnews.com/articles/tusimple-proceeds-plans-build-worlds-largest-self-driving-truck-fleet Success: https://electrek.co/2021/12/29/tusimple-successfully-operates-80-mile-autonomous-semi-truck-ride-on-public-roads-without-a-human-present/ Renault: https://group.renault.com/en/news/blog-renault/renault-presents-eyes-offhands-off-technology-for-the-autonomous-vehicle-of-the-future/ Yandex: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nhqyrze30bk PSA Groupe: https://www.groupe-psa.com/en/story/en-route-vers-la-voiture-autonome/ (2024) I had them down for 2023 level 3, but I didn’t document and can’t find the press release as everything was deleted with Stellantis. Making this grey as Stellantis probably shouldn’t be associated with earlier pledges. Hyundai (w Aurora): https://www.hyundai.news/eu/articles/press-releases/hyundai-motor-and-aurora-partner-to-develop-level-4-autonomous-vehicles-by-2021.html Aurora: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1zr0J6h6islsJoHSVKIHwkh1k2RaCCjwb/view p. 46: “Aurora anticipates beginning to generate revenue from trucks without drivers in 2023.” Ridehailing in 2024. Plus.AI. https://plus.ai/investors.html?gclid=CjwKCAjwjJmIBhA4EiwAQdCbxmWmN8oB8EJIJvnP2JSC2jQFcNHHLkypiO8p85QETKD-OCGLdCY2WBoCHcoQAvD_BwE -------------------------------------------------- March 2019 revision Removing suppliers since they aren’t really pledging deployment, but a “platform.” Conti with Nvidia pledged L2-5 platform by 2021: https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/continental-and-nvidia-partner-to-enable-worldwide-production-of-ai-self-driving-cars Aptive/Mobileye level 4/5 “turnkey solution” by 2019. (relates to VW 2019 Israel promise): http://www.aptiv.com/media/article/2017/11/26/mobileye-and-delphi-to-establish-partnership-for-sae-level-4-5-automated-driving-solution-for-2019 Bosch L3 platform in 2020: https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B7uiYk-iv-WNZXItSFpQaWpsWGs/view?usp=sharing Aptive/Mobileye: http://www.aptiv.com/media/article/2017/11/26/mobileye-and-delphi-to-establish-partnership-for-sae-level-4-5-automated-driving-solution-for-2019 NVIDIA: Will have chip in 2019, but hasn’t really promised capability. https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/2017/10/10/gtc-europe-holodeck-drive-px/ Rando: Toyota: Not specific enough to hold them to a promise. “The first milestone comes in 2020, when Toyota plans to introduce vehicles capable of driving themselves on highways.” https://www.autonews.com/mobility-report/toyotas-moonshot-self-driving-car-sale-year Yandex: https://www.autonews.com/mobility-report/russias-yandex-plans-bold-step-self-driving-cars (might actually be planning dedicated tele-operator) Had this as a promise, but removed it when Yandex demoed crewless operation in Ann Arbor. It’s not the same but it’s too confusing to have both.