Black Swan Analysis is a healthcare consulting firm that provides business intelligence services like market research, forecasting, and data analysis. They help clients make better business decisions by turning problems around to find optimal solutions. The document discusses 6 case studies where Black Swan provided business intelligence support: 1) A biotech company's flawed forecasting for an MRI contrast agent, 2) A company needing a rapid analysis for investment, 3) Evaluating an in-licensing opportunity, 4) Portfolio optimization, 5) Evaluating taking back a licensed asset, and 6) Building a forecast model for an imminent product launch. Black Swan's analyses helped clients with investment decisions, development strategies, and sales forecasting.

1. Business Intelligence, why
do we need it?
EMIG Business
Development Group
XXth Meeting
Black Swan Analysis
19th March 2015

2.  Black Swan Analysis Ltd 20152
Formed in 2007, Black Swan Analysis is devoted
exclusively to delivering high-quality data
analysis, forecast modelling, and market
research within the healthcare sector that
generates insightful outputs that make business
decisions clear for our clients.
Who are Black Swan Analysis?
We are not afraid to challenge the status quo by turning a
healthcare problem on its head to deliver the optimal solution for
our clients. Our understanding of patient epidemiology, pathology,
forecasting, proprietary databases and wealth of experience on
the client side has been a true differentiator for us and an asset
to both the company and our clients.

3.  Black Swan Analysis Ltd 20153
What is Business Intelligence?
Different definitions around the industry…
… is a data analysis process aimed at boosting business performance by
helping corporate executives and other users make a more informed
decisions – Margaret Rouse (Whatis.com)
…is the set of techniques and tools for the transformation of raw data
into meaningful and useful information for business analysis purposes
- Wikipedia
…enables strategic decision making with the right data, in the
right place, at the right time – PwC Consulting Services

4.  Black Swan Analysis Ltd 20154
What activities does it comprise?
• Market research
• Desk research
• Competitive Intelligence
• Forecasting
• Modelling
• Segmentation
• Data analysis
• Market landscaping
• Brand tracking & performance

5.  Black Swan Analysis Ltd 2015
Pre-Clinical Phase I Phase II Phase III Approval Life-cycle
5
Where & when should it be used?
Risk
Value
Epidemiology &
target segments
Clinical comparator
& benchmarks
Sales Potential
Treatment Pathways
CI
Portfolio Dynamics
Positioning
Research
Market dynamics
Customer
segmentation
Profile testing
Forecasting
scenarios
Tracking &
Benchmarking
Life-cycle
management

6. Case Studies
Business Intelligence at Work

7.  Black Swan Analysis Ltd 20157
Case Study #1
CLIENT SITUATION
• Biotech company developing a Super Paramagnetic Iron Oxide (SPIO)
base contrast agent – licensed from ISIS Innovation
• Looking for investment (~£5M) to fund development through Phase 2
(currently had £2M)
• Lead indication is for Multiple Sclerosis (MS) with the follow-on being
Glioblastoma Multiforme (GBM)
• Investment forecast conveyed $800M peak sales with the “lion share”
of the revenue being driven by GBM
MS
GBM

8.  Black Swan Analysis Ltd 20158
Case Study #1
BI SUPPORT REQUIRED:
• Market Landscape/Market Research
• Patient Segment/Sizing
• Forecast Model

9.  Black Swan Analysis Ltd 20159
Case Study #1
OUTCOME
• Investment lacking in opportunity - $800M
for an MRI agent for MS
• Issues with mid-understanding the market
dynamics in a diagnostic market – incidence
vs. prevalence
• Company folded, no investment forthcoming
Could have done differently?
• Understand better the challenges with SPIO agents
• Understand the target patient populations and the diagnostic
algorithm fit
• Look at adjacent areas that could benefit from the clinical profile

10.  Black Swan Analysis Ltd 201510
Case Study #2
CLIENT SITUATION:
• Investor meeting imminent
• Discovery that commissioned forecast
model deeply flawed
• Requirement for solid information,
quickly, robust enough for due diligence

11.  Black Swan Analysis Ltd 201511
Long term need: Full analysis and rebuild of the asset’s potential,
identifying a full development and life-cycle plan across a range of
associated conditions.
Case Study #2
BI SUPPORT REQUIRED:
Immediate need: Rapid requirement for solid information, robust
enough for due diligence, securing investment

12.  Black Swan Analysis Ltd 201512
Case Study #2
OUTCOME:
• Required investment was raised – client is still in business!
• Second phase of work was initiated to work
through the clinical & commercial
application of the agent
• Client & investors have a clear road-map
laying out development through to
commercialisation with risks & targets
identified

13.  Black Swan Analysis Ltd 201513
Case Study #3
• In-licensing opportunity, short time frame but robust, complete
answer required.
CLIENT SITUATION:
• Completely new, undeveloped area.
• Should they buy the asset, and if so was the
asking price right?

14.  Black Swan Analysis Ltd 201514
Case Study #3
Thorough market landscape & forecast, including estimates of
potential patient population, install-base of new diagnostic and
likely adoption of the new product in this context.
• Epidemiology
• Market model
• Market research & patient segmentation
• Sensitivity analysis
BI SUPPORT REQUIRED:

15.  Black Swan Analysis Ltd 201515
Case Study #3
Client decided that this particular asset was over-valued and timing
not optimal for them to get into the therapy area. However, they did
search for and acquire another asset in the same field two years
later on once both the diagnostic and MOA had been established.
OUTCOME:

16.  Black Swan Analysis Ltd 201516
Case Study #4
CLIENT SITUATION
• Biotech company developing an Optical
Molecular Imaging technology
• Sufficient funding to support the development
of short-list of indications through to
commercial availability
• Need to develop the most optimal approach with their portfolio
of opportunities to get to a “self-sustained” business
• Their investors required a level of clarity on which programs their
investments were being spent

17.  Black Swan Analysis Ltd 201517
Case Study #4
BI SUPPORT REQUIRED:
Immediate need: Portfolio optimisation –
able to take a long list of potential
candidates and rank them by commercial
and technical attributes to arrive at a
short-list.
Long term need: Full analysis of the short-list of candidates
with an outline clinical plan, market landscape, competitive
intelligence and forecast model. Grouping the different
opportunities into franchises (Oncology, GI, Respiratory)

18.  Black Swan Analysis Ltd 201518
Case Study #4
• Clear strategy on the list of development priorities and in-licensing
opportunities
• Options for future development if current programs fail or need for
attracting out-licensing funding
• Investors had clear understanding of the “road-map” for
development and the business, and now have the tools to attract
further investments at international investment conferences
OUTCOME:

19.  Black Swan Analysis Ltd 201519
Case Study #5
CLIENT SITUATION
Marketing rights for a current asset had been licensed out to another
company to market it in the region in question. The opportunity was
coming up to take back the asset, but would need to invest in setting
up a local affiliate office.

20.  Black Swan Analysis Ltd 201520
Case Study #5
Assessment of the 4 key territories in the region and robust five year
forecast to support the decision.
Total Treated Patients Derived from Audit data
Total CHBV
Extrapolation of Audit data
• Epidemiology – to include
diminishing ‘at risk’ population
• Market model & forecast
projections
• Likely pricing / volume volatility
• Short term forecast projection
• Longer term forecast projection
based on ‘embedded’ disruptive
events
BI SUPPORT REQUIRED:

21.  Black Swan Analysis Ltd 201521
Case Study #5
Client decided that there was sufficient revenue to justify establishing
a local affiliate office. In the longer term, other opportunities for
commercialisation of other assets in their portfolio would further
justify the financial reason for presence in the new region.
OUTCOME:

22.  Black Swan Analysis Ltd 201522
Final Thoughts
Before you spend millions, invest a little to decide
if it’s the right decision at the right time made on
the basis of the right information.
“Do I fully understand the risk involved with
commercialising this healthcare asset?”
Take a pro-active approach to BI and turn those Black
Swans into White Swans

23.  Black Swan Analysis Ltd 201523
Questions
Moorbridge Court
29-41 Moorbridge Road
Maidenhead, Berkshire
SL6 8LT
Tel: +44(0)1628 621 790
Contact Details:
christopher.ehinger@blackswan-analysis.co.uk
Nic.Talbot-Watt@blackswan-analysis.co.uk

24.  Black Swan Analysis Ltd 201524
Case Study #6
• New product launch imminent (accelerated development based on
outstanding clinical outcomes).
• No current view on tactical demand forecast, but had received a
forecast model from Global counterparts.
• Global model lacked critical market drivers, plus did not use
methodology conducive to capturing impact of changing treatment
paradigms.
CLIENT SITUATION
• Needed their own model which they understood,
captured their key market drivers and barriers to
enable them to explore the market and generate
sales forecast options that they had confidence in.

25.  Black Swan Analysis Ltd 201525
Case Study #6
• Dynamic market model based on clinical algorithms and likely to
capture and predict disruptive treatment events and new product
launches.
• Ability to factor in market access programmes & non-commercial
supply.
BI SUPPORT REQUIRED:
• Flexibility to adjust treatment length for
their product to estimate ranges of supply
required in first year of launch

26.  Black Swan Analysis Ltd 201526
Case Study #6
OUTCOME:
Client was able to meet Global reporting timelines, feel confident in the final
forecast – input and alignment with the entire product team.
Team was able to explore key sensitivities and understand what actions they
would need to take.
More visibility around current and future competitors in each of the treatment
settings they would gain a licence for, leading to deeper insight around
where they could gain business.