BUSI2301 Introduction to Operations Management Fall 2021 Individual Assignment 1. Consider the total production (and sales) of ice cream in Canada (in millions of liters) for the period 1995 until 2007 (from left to right): 341, 331, 317, 315, 321, 278, 298, 311, 302, 302, 335, 320, 285 Fit a model to ice cream production data using each of the following techniques and forecast the 2008 production in each case. Also, plot the two moving average forecasts and the actual, the two exponential smoothing forecasts and the actual, and the linear trend and the actual (three graphs altogether). a. Two-year moving average. b. Four-year moving average. c. Exponential smoothing with smoothing constant = 0.2. d. Exponential smoothing with smoothing constant = 0.4. e. Linear trend (regression). f. Just by observing the plots, which of the above techniques would you use to forecast the ice cream production and why? (Hint: The plot overall closest to actual demand will be most accurate). g. Alternatively, compute the MAD for each forecasting technique and determine the most accurate technique. Individual Assignment: BUSI2301 2 | P a g e 2. The number of Toyota Corollas produced in the Cambridge, Ontario, plant during each month of January 2008 to December 2009 period was as follows: Assume that the cars are sold in the same month they are produced. Identify an appropriate forecasting technique, briefly state the reason(s) you chose it, and forecast Corolla demand in January 2010. 3. Fleet managers have a large pool of cars and trucks to maintain.13 One approach to the vehicle maintenance is to use periodic oil analysis: the oil from the engine and transmission are subjected periodically to a test. These tests can sometimes signal an impending failure (for example, iron particles in the oil), and preventive maintenance is then performed (at a relatively low cost), eliminating the risk of failure (failure would result in a relatively high cost). However, oil analysis costs money and it is not perfect—it can indicate that a unit is defective when in fact it is not, and it can indicate that a unit is nondefective when in fact it is. As a possible substitute for oil analysis, the company could simply change the oil periodically, thereby reducing the probability of failure. The fleet manager for the Southern Company, an electrical utility based in Atlanta (parent of Georgia Power and Light), has four alternatives: (1) do nothing, (2) use oil analysis only, (3) replace oil only, or (4) replace oil and do oil analysis. For option (1) the probability of failure is 0.1, and the cost of failure is $1,200. For option (2), the probability of failure remains at 0.1. If the unit is about to fail, the oil analysis will indicate this with probability 0.7; if the unit is not about to fail, the oil Individual Assignment: BUSI2301 3 | P a g e analysis will indicate thi ...