Note: This presentation was given ath the 69th annual conference of the World Association of Public Opinion Research in Austin, Texas, on May 11, 2016. --- In this study, we analyze whether the mere volume of presence in mass media and the mere volume of activity on social media conveys advantages to candidates in parliamentary elections. Based on the theoretical model of bounded rationality, we call these potential effects \textit{brute force effects}. During the last month of the election campaign of the Swiss general election of 2015, we have tracked the presence of all 873 candidates from the canton of Zurich in a broad sample of mass media as well as their activity on Facebook and Twitter. The results of our multilevel Bayesian estimates show that neither direct activity on social media nor indirect resonance on social media has substantial effects. Mass media presence, in contrast, has consistent small, but substantial effects. Our results suggest that the brute force effect of mass media presence can have a tangible impact, but only a small one.

1. Brute force effects of mass media presence
and social media activity on electoral
outcome
Marko Kovic1; Adrian Rauchfleisch2; Julia Metag3; Christian
Caspar4; Julian Szenogrady5
May 11, 2016
ZIPAR
Zurich Institute of Public Affairs Research
1
ZIPAR / marko.kovic@zipar.org
2
ZIPAR; Institute of Mass Communication and Media Research, University of Zurich
3
Institute of Mass Communication and Media Research, University of Zurich
4
Research Institute for the Public Sphere and Society, University of Zurich
5
Institute of Mass Communication and Media Research, University of Zurich

2. ZIPAROutline
What I will be talking about

3. ZIPAROutline
What I will be talking about
Introduction: What are «brute force effects»?

4. ZIPAROutline
What I will be talking about
Introduction: What are «brute force effects»?
The Swiss electoral system

5. ZIPAROutline
What I will be talking about
Introduction: What are «brute force effects»?
The Swiss electoral system
Data and methods

6. ZIPAROutline
What I will be talking about
Introduction: What are «brute force effects»?
The Swiss electoral system
Data and methods
Results

7. ZIPAROutline
What I will be talking about
Introduction: What are «brute force effects»?
The Swiss electoral system
Data and methods
Results
Discussion

8. ZIPARIntroduction
What are brute force effects?

9. ZIPARIntroduction
What are brute force effects?

10. ZIPARIntroduction
What are brute force effects?
We are witnessing a historic event!

11. ZIPARIntroduction
What are brute force effects?
We are witnessing a historic event!
Many a conventional wisdom has been proven wrong.

12. ZIPARIntroduction
What are brute force effects?
We are witnessing a historic event!
Many a conventional wisdom has been proven wrong.
One of them: Spending on advertising.

13. ZIPARIntroduction
What are brute force effects?

14. ZIPARIntroduction
What are brute force effects?
Donald Trump has done something interesting!

15. ZIPARIntroduction
What are brute force effects?
Donald Trump has done something interesting!
Maximize presence in mass media news reporting.

16. ZIPARIntroduction
What are brute force effects?
Donald Trump has done something interesting!
Maximize presence in mass media news reporting.
Disregard whether they love or loathe you.

17. ZIPARIntroduction
What are brute force effects?
Donald Trump has done something interesting!
Maximize presence in mass media news reporting.
Disregard whether they love or loathe you.
Be very active on social media.

18. ZIPARIntroduction
What are brute force effects?
Donald Trump has done something interesting!
Maximize presence in mass media news reporting.
Disregard whether they love or loathe you.
Be very active on social media.
... win!

19. ZIPARIntroduction
What are brute force effects?
Could it be that the sheer volume of mass media presence and social
media activity matters?

20. ZIPARIntroduction
What are brute force effects?
Could it be that the sheer volume of mass media presence and social
media activity matters?
We humans «suffer» from many cognitive heuristics.

21. ZIPARIntroduction
What are brute force effects?
Could it be that the sheer volume of mass media presence and social
media activity matters?
We humans «suffer» from many cognitive heuristics.
Most of our thinking is «fast»: Automated and prone to errors.

22. ZIPARIntroduction
What are brute force effects?
Could it be that the sheer volume of mass media presence and social
media activity matters?
We humans «suffer» from many cognitive heuristics.
Most of our thinking is «fast»: Automated and prone to errors.
One family of such biases is related to exposure to information.

23. ZIPARIntroduction
What are brute force effects?
Could it be that the sheer volume of mass media presence and social
media activity matters?
We humans «suffer» from many cognitive heuristics.
Most of our thinking is «fast»: Automated and prone to errors.
One family of such biases is related to exposure to information.
Most famously: Mere exposure effect.

24. ZIPARIntroduction
What are brute force effects?
Brute force effects: Positive electoral impact of the mere volume of
mass media presence and social media activity.

25. ZIPARIntroduction
What are brute force effects?
Brute force effects: Positive electoral impact of the mere volume of
mass media presence and social media activity.
Brute force effects are not rational!

26. ZIPARIntroduction
What are brute force effects?
Brute force effects: Positive electoral impact of the mere volume of
mass media presence and social media activity.
Brute force effects are not rational!
Purely rational voting: Utility maximization.

27. ZIPARIntroduction
What are brute force effects?
Brute force effects: Positive electoral impact of the mere volume of
mass media presence and social media activity.
Brute force effects are not rational!
Purely rational voting: Utility maximization.
Purely non-rational voting: Preference generation through
heuristics.

28. ZIPARIntroduction
What are brute force effects?
Brute force effects: Positive electoral impact of the mere volume of
mass media presence and social media activity.
Brute force effects are not rational!
Purely rational voting: Utility maximization.
Purely non-rational voting: Preference generation through
heuristics.
Overlap: Mobilization through heuristics.

29. ZIPARIntroduction
What are brute force effects?
Brute force effects: Positive electoral impact of the mere volume of
mass media presence and social media activity.
Brute force effects are not rational!
Purely rational voting: Utility maximization.
Purely non-rational voting: Preference generation through
heuristics.
Overlap: Mobilization through heuristics.
Brute force effects are either purely non-rational, or an overlap of
rational and non-rational.

30. ZIPARIntroduction
What are brute force effects?

31. ZIPARIntroduction
What are brute force effects?
R NR
BF
Figure: R stands for the set of rational voting, NR for the set of non-rational
voting, and BF for the subset of brute force effects.

32. ZIPARElections in Switzerland
A seismograph of voter preferences

33. ZIPARElections in Switzerland
A seismograph of voter preferences
Latest national elections: October 18, 2015.

34. ZIPARElections in Switzerland
A seismograph of voter preferences
Latest national elections: October 18, 2015.
Lower and upper house.

35. ZIPARElections in Switzerland
A seismograph of voter preferences
Latest national elections: October 18, 2015.
Lower and upper house.
Lower house: 200 seats; proportional vote; cantons are voting
districts.

36. ZIPARElections in Switzerland
A seismograph of voter preferences
Latest national elections: October 18, 2015.
Lower and upper house.
Lower house: 200 seats; proportional vote; cantons are voting
districts.
Upper house: 46 seats; majority vote; cantons are voting
districts.

37. ZIPARElections in Switzerland
A seismograph of voter preferences
Latest national elections: October 18, 2015.
Lower and upper house.
Lower house: 200 seats; proportional vote; cantons are voting
districts.
Upper house: 46 seats; majority vote; cantons are voting
districts.
The lower house elections are of interest in this study.

38. ZIPARElections in Switzerland
A seismograph of voter preferences
How lower house elections work:

39. ZIPARElections in Switzerland
A seismograph of voter preferences
How lower house elections work:
There are voting lists for each canton.

40. ZIPARElections in Switzerland
A seismograph of voter preferences
How lower house elections work:
There are voting lists for each canton.
Voters can do a number of things with lists:

41. ZIPARElections in Switzerland
A seismograph of voter preferences
How lower house elections work:
There are voting lists for each canton.
Voters can do a number of things with lists:
Vote for a list as is.

42. ZIPARElections in Switzerland
A seismograph of voter preferences
How lower house elections work:
There are voting lists for each canton.
Voters can do a number of things with lists:
Vote for a list as is.
Remove candidates from a list.

43. ZIPARElections in Switzerland
A seismograph of voter preferences
How lower house elections work:
There are voting lists for each canton.
Voters can do a number of things with lists:
Vote for a list as is.
Remove candidates from a list.
Add candidates from other lists → panachage

44. ZIPARElections in Switzerland
A seismograph of voter preferences
How lower house elections work:
There are voting lists for each canton.
Voters can do a number of things with lists:
Vote for a list as is.
Remove candidates from a list.
Add candidates from other lists → panachage
Put a candidate’s name twice on a list → cumulation

45. ZIPARElections in Switzerland
A seismograph of voter preferences
This results in very interesting data!

46. ZIPARElections in Switzerland
A seismograph of voter preferences
This results in very interesting data!
For each candidate, we know:

47. ZIPARElections in Switzerland
A seismograph of voter preferences
This results in very interesting data!
For each candidate, we know:
Whether they got elected or not.

48. ZIPARElections in Switzerland
A seismograph of voter preferences
This results in very interesting data!
For each candidate, we know:
Whether they got elected or not.
How many votes they received.

49. ZIPARElections in Switzerland
A seismograph of voter preferences
This results in very interesting data!
For each candidate, we know:
Whether they got elected or not.
How many votes they received.
How many panachage votes they received.

50. ZIPARElections in Switzerland
A seismograph of voter preferences
This results in very interesting data!
For each candidate, we know:
Whether they got elected or not.
How many votes they received.
How many panachage votes they received.
How many cumulation votes they received.

51. ZIPARElections in Switzerland
A seismograph of voter preferences
Accordingly, we test a number of hypotheses:

52. ZIPARElections in Switzerland
A seismograph of voter preferences
Accordingly, we test a number of hypotheses:
H1: BFE have no substantial impact on the probability of being
elected.

53. ZIPARElections in Switzerland
A seismograph of voter preferences
Accordingly, we test a number of hypotheses:
H1: BFE have no substantial impact on the probability of being
elected.
H2: BFE have no substantial impact on the total amount of
votes.

54. ZIPARElections in Switzerland
A seismograph of voter preferences
Accordingly, we test a number of hypotheses:
H1: BFE have no substantial impact on the probability of being
elected.
H2: BFE have no substantial impact on the total amount of
votes.
H3: BFE have a substantial impact on the amount of panachage
votes.

55. ZIPARElections in Switzerland
A seismograph of voter preferences
Accordingly, we test a number of hypotheses:
H1: BFE have no substantial impact on the probability of being
elected.
H2: BFE have no substantial impact on the total amount of
votes.
H3: BFE have a substantial impact on the amount of panachage
votes.
H4: BFE have a substantial impact on the amount of cumulation
votes.

56. ZIPARElections in Switzerland
A seismograph of voter preferences
Accordingly, we test a number of hypotheses:
H1: BFE have no substantial impact on the probability of being
elected.
H2: BFE have no substantial impact on the total amount of
votes.
H3: BFE have a substantial impact on the amount of panachage
votes.
H4: BFE have a substantial impact on the amount of cumulation
votes.
H5: Mass media presence exerts a stronger BFE than social
media activity.

57. ZIPARData and methods
What and how
Data collection:

58. ZIPARData and methods
What and how
Data collection:
Canton of Zurich: Largest canton by population.

59. ZIPARData and methods
What and how
Data collection:
Canton of Zurich: Largest canton by population.
873 candidates.

60. ZIPARData and methods
What and how
Data collection:
Canton of Zurich: Largest canton by population.
873 candidates.
35 seats in the lower house.

61. ZIPARData and methods
What and how
Data collection:
Canton of Zurich: Largest canton by population.
873 candidates.
35 seats in the lower house.
Final four campaign weeks.

62. ZIPARData and methods
What and how
Data collection:
Canton of Zurich: Largest canton by population.
873 candidates.
35 seats in the lower house.
Final four campaign weeks.
Media sample: 12 newspapers; 6 TV news shows; 3 radio news
shows.

63. ZIPARData and methods
What and how
Data collection:
Canton of Zurich: Largest canton by population.
873 candidates.
35 seats in the lower house.
Final four campaign weeks.
Media sample: 12 newspapers; 6 TV news shows; 3 radio news
shows.
Social media sample: Facebook, Twitter.

64. ZIPARData and methods
What and how
Variables for data analysis:

65. ZIPARData and methods
What and how
Variables for data analysis:
Mass media presence of individual candidates.

66. ZIPARData and methods
What and how
Variables for data analysis:
Mass media presence of individual candidates.
Total: 1’685 individual occurrences.

67. ZIPARData and methods
What and how
Variables for data analysis:
Mass media presence of individual candidates.
Total: 1’685 individual occurrences.
Social media activity:

68. ZIPARData and methods
What and how
Variables for data analysis:
Mass media presence of individual candidates.
Total: 1’685 individual occurrences.
Social media activity:
Total: 1’595 Facebook posts; 7’036 tweets.

69. ZIPARData and methods
What and how
Variables for data analysis:
Mass media presence of individual candidates.
Total: 1’685 individual occurrences.
Social media activity:
Total: 1’595 Facebook posts; 7’036 tweets.
Social media resonance:

70. ZIPARData and methods
What and how
Variables for data analysis:
Mass media presence of individual candidates.
Total: 1’685 individual occurrences.
Social media activity:
Total: 1’595 Facebook posts; 7’036 tweets.
Social media resonance:
Total: 49’869 Facebook resonance activities; 15’887 Twitter
resonance activities.

71. ZIPARData and methods
What and how
Additional variables for data analysis:

72. ZIPARData and methods
What and how
Additional variables for data analysis:
Incumbency

73. ZIPARData and methods
What and how
Additional variables for data analysis:
Incumbency
Gender

74. ZIPARData and methods
What and how
Additional variables for data analysis:
Incumbency
Gender
Age

75. ZIPARData and methods
What and how
Additional variables for data analysis:
Incumbency
Gender
Age
Voting list rank

76. ZIPARData and methods
What and how
Data analysis:

77. ZIPARData and methods
What and how
Data analysis:
Multilevel-models with varying intercepts.

78. ZIPARData and methods
What and how
Data analysis:
Multilevel-models with varying intercepts.
Voting list = group level variable.

79. ZIPARData and methods
What and how
Data analysis:
Multilevel-models with varying intercepts.
Voting list = group level variable.
Bayesian models with vague priors.

80. ZIPARData and methods
What and how
Data analysis:
Multilevel-models with varying intercepts.
Voting list = group level variable.
Bayesian models with vague priors.
1 x binary response; 3 x metric.

81. ZIPARResults
Being elected

82. ZIPARResults
Being elected
Age Facebook − activity
Facebook − resonance Incumbency
Media − broadcasting Media − newspapers
Sex (female) Twitter − activity
Twitter − resonance Voting list rank
−0.1 0.0 0.1 −0.2 −0.1 0.0 0.1
0.0000 0.0025 0.0050 0.0 2.5 5.0 7.5 10.0
−1 0 1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6
0 2 4 6 −0.10 −0.05 0.00
0.00 0.01 0.02 0.03 −0.4 −0.2 0.0

83. ZIPARResults
Being elected
Parameter Mean 2.5% quantile 97.5% quantile ˆR
Media - broadcasting −0.15 −0.83 0.63 1.00
Media - newspapers 0.24 0.11 0.39 1.00
Facebook - activity −0.03 −0.12 0.05 1.00
Facebook - resonance 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00
Twitter - activity −0.02 −0.06 0.01 1.00
Twitter - resonance 0.01 0.00 0.02 1.00
Age 0.01 −0.05 0.07 1.00
Incumbency 4.36 2.23 6.67 1.00
Voting list rank −0.11 −0.27 0.00 1.00
Sex (female) 2.24 0.54 4.24 1.00

84. ZIPARResults
Number of votes

85. ZIPARResults
Number of votes
Age Facebook − activity
Facebook − resonance Incumbency
Media − broadcasting Media − newspapers
Sex (female) Twitter − activity
Twitter − resonance Voting list rank
−4 0 4 −20 0 20
1 2 3 4 14000 16000 18000 20000
0 500 1000 100 150 200 250 300
−100 0 100 200−10 −5 0 5 10
−2.5 0.0 2.5 5.0−35 −30 −25 −20 −15

86. ZIPARResults
Number of votes
Parameter Mean 2.5% quantile 97.5% quantile ˆR
Media - broadcasting 362.94 −70.09 1009.30 1.00
Media - newspapers 165.94 114.21 232.92 1.00
Facebook - activity −7.33 −18.58 5.46 1.00
Facebook - resonance 2.14 1.88 2.56 1.01
Twitter - activity 1.23 −3.72 7.05 1.00
Twitter - resonance −0.16 −2.19 2.24 1.00
Age −0.52 −3.42 2.33 1.00
Incumbency 16784.52 15623.83 18023.62 1.00
Voting list rank −23.24 −27.25 −19.32 1.00
Sex (female) 34.39 −40.94 110.68 1.00

87. ZIPARResults
Panachage votes

88. ZIPARResults
Panachage votes
Age Facebook − activity
Facebook − resonance Incumbency
Media − broadcasting Media − newspapers
Sex (female) Twitter − activity
Twitter − resonance Voting list rank
−3 −2 −1 0 1 −10 −5 0 5 10
−0.3 0.0 0.3 0.6 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000
−100 0 100 200 25 50 75 100 125
0 50 100 −2 0 2 4
−1.0 −0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 −10 −8 −6

89. ZIPARResults
Panachage votes
Parameter Mean 2.5% quantile 97.5% quantile ˆR
Media - broadcasting 76.13 −15.88 155.54 1.00
Media - newspapers 82.67 57.47 102.72 1.00
Facebook - activity −1.36 −5.30 2.75 1.00
Facebook - resonance 0.32 0.03 0.54 1.01
Twitter - activity 0.21 −0.55 1.69 1.00
Twitter - resonance −0.01 −0.35 0.28 1.00
Age −0.49 −1.63 0.63 1.00
Incumbency 6615.75 4749.08 8259.01 1.05
Voting list rank −8.12 −9.79 −6.48 1.00
Sex (female) 25.07 −6.26 57.20 1.00

90. ZIPARResults
Cumulation votes

91. ZIPARResults
Cumulation votes
Age Facebook − activity
Facebook − resonance Incumbency
Media − broadcasting Media − newspapers
Sex (female) Twitter − activity
Twitter − resonance Voting list rank
−3 −2 −1 0 1 2 −10 −5 0 5 10
−0.4 0.0 0.4 0.8 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000
−200 0 200 400 0 20 40 60 80
0 50 100 −2 0 2 4
−2 −1 0 1 −10 −8 −6 −4

92. ZIPARResults
Cumulation votes
Parameter Mean 2.5% quantile 97.5% quantile ˆR
Media - broadcasting 90.18 −30.80 231.92 1.10
Media - newspapers 41.72 22.00 64.35 1.00
Facebook - activity −1.20 −5.62 3.69 1.01
Facebook - resonance 0.28 0.00 0.49 1.01
Twitter - activity 0.43 −1.25 2.66 1.01
Twitter - resonance −0.16 −0.98 0.55 1.01
Age −0.41 −1.59 0.78 1.00
Incumbency 5724.66 4060.00 7748.60 1.01
Voting list rank −7.32 −8.97 −5.73 1.00
Sex (female) 24.80 −6.36 56.11 1.01

93. ZIPARDiscussion
Not so brute and not so forceful?
What have we learned? Take home messages:

94. ZIPARDiscussion
Not so brute and not so forceful?
What have we learned? Take home messages:
In terms of being elected or not, BFE are unlikely to matter.

95. ZIPARDiscussion
Not so brute and not so forceful?
What have we learned? Take home messages:
In terms of being elected or not, BFE are unlikely to matter.
However, for the total amount of votes, the amount of
panachage and the amount of cumulation votes, BFE might
matter!

96. ZIPARDiscussion
Not so brute and not so forceful?
What have we learned? Take home messages:
In terms of being elected or not, BFE are unlikely to matter.
However, for the total amount of votes, the amount of
panachage and the amount of cumulation votes, BFE might
matter!
Traditional media is still king.

97. ZIPARDiscussion
Not so brute and not so forceful?
What have we learned? Take home messages:
In terms of being elected or not, BFE are unlikely to matter.
However, for the total amount of votes, the amount of
panachage and the amount of cumulation votes, BFE might
matter!
Traditional media is still king.
Newspapers show the most substantial and most persistent
effect.

98. ZIPARDiscussion
Not so brute and not so forceful?
What have we learned? Take home messages:
In terms of being elected or not, BFE are unlikely to matter.
However, for the total amount of votes, the amount of
panachage and the amount of cumulation votes, BFE might
matter!
Traditional media is still king.
Newspapers show the most substantial and most persistent
effect.
Social media resonance seems to be more important than direct
activity.

99. ZIPAROutlook
What’s next in light of the results?

100. ZIPAROutlook
What’s next in light of the results?
What should happen next?

101. ZIPAROutlook
What’s next in light of the results?
What should happen next?
More research is needed...

102. ZIPAROutlook
What’s next in light of the results?
What should happen next?
More research is needed...
But this time, that’s true!

103. ZIPAROutlook
What’s next in light of the results?
What should happen next?
More research is needed...
But this time, that’s true!
Brute force effects are universal phenomena.

104. ZIPAROutlook
What’s next in light of the results?
What should happen next?
More research is needed...
But this time, that’s true!
Brute force effects are universal phenomena.
Human cognition and, with it, heuristics and biases are
universal as well!

105. ZIPAROutlook
What’s next in light of the results?
What should happen next?
More research is needed...
But this time, that’s true!
Brute force effects are universal phenomena.
Human cognition and, with it, heuristics and biases are
universal as well!
A lot of what is going on in voting behavior can be described in
terms of behavioral economics.

106. ZIPAROutlook
What’s next in light of the results?
What should happen next?
More research is needed...
But this time, that’s true!
Brute force effects are universal phenomena.
Human cognition and, with it, heuristics and biases are
universal as well!
A lot of what is going on in voting behavior can be described in
terms of behavioral economics.
So let’s do so more often!

107. ZIPARThanks!
Thank you for your attention!

108. ZIPARThe models
Binary outcome
yi ∼ Bernoulli(µ)
µ = logistic(β0i|j + β1x1i + ... + βkxki)
logistic(x) = 1
(1+exp(−x))

109. ZIPARThe models
Metric outcome
yi ∼ t(µ, σ2, ν)
µ = (β0i|j + β1x1i + ... + βkxki)
σ2 = 1
τ

110. ZIPARThe models
Priors
β0i|j ∼ N(0, 0.001)
βk ∼ N(0, 0.001)
τ ∼ γ(0.01, 0.01)
ν ∼ exp(1/29, shift = 1)