Brunswick Corporation used a big data pilot project to better understand declining sales of its Express Cruiser boat models. The project analyzed 14 years of boat registration data along with dozens of US macroeconomic variables. It found that Express Cruiser sales strongly depend on lending conditions, and recommended Brunswick monitor the marine lending market. The pilot accurately forecasted 2014-2018 sales. Brunswick plans to use additional big data projects for quick wins but not long-term forecasting. Its next project will identify the best-selling boat accessories by location and season to increase profits.

1. 1
Keeping Brunswick Corporation’s Top Boat Afloat
Big Data Pilot Provides Improved Express Cruiser Forecast
Brunswick Corporation (BC) is one of the largest builders of recreational boats in the world. In 2013,
Brunswick’s Marine division accounted for 74% of the company’s total net revenue of $3.9 billion, which
includes its other three lines of recreational-type businesses; fitness, bowling and billiards.
“Boats over 40 foot is where we make a lot of money right now and those boats right now are really hot.
We’re fundamentality sold out on backlog,” said Dustan McCoy, Brunswick chairman and CEO during a
July 11, 2014 interview on CNBC’s Squawk CEO Call show. “These boats start at $800,000 to $1 million
and move on up.”
However, not all of Brunswick’s boat lines are in the black. Brunswick’s Express Cruisers, in particular, its
25 – 29 foot models and its 30 - 40 foot models have not been as profitable since the U.S. demand for
these pleasure yachts has declined sharply after the 2008 recession. Express Cruisers are pleasure speed
boats with living quarters that can accommodate boaters in style on a casual day trip to a multi-day
boating adventure.
So what is impacting the sales of these extravagant luxury boats that cost upwards of $500,000? While
the markets for other high-end price tag items like autos, RVs, housing and even most types of other
boat lines have improved from their respective 2009 levels, sales of the Brunswick’s Express Cruiser
have remained flat.
Big Data Approach to Look For Answers
“We’ve always looked at data in a regimented or more traditional way,” said Blake Abercrombie, Big
Data Manager at Brunswick Corporation. “Brunswick has been successful as a business intelligence
group, but they wanted to seek ways to continue that success in a slightly different fashion.”
Abercrombie was tasked this year to use a “Big Data approach” to analyze the Boat Group’s Express
Cruiser’s sales data by adding and considering other variables that have not been done in the past.
“Using a Big Data approach creates a more agile environment to get answers to business questions in
weeks, instead of months by using new tools,” added Abercrombie.

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Proof of Concept Big Data Pilot
To dig deeper into finding more answers to the business question of, “What is impacting the sales of
these Express Cruiser models?” Brunswick engaged STLogics, an Indianapolis, Indiana information
technology consulting company established in 2004 that specializes in Big Data analytical services to
assist its internal Big Data team. STLogics provided strategic advice on how to best execute a Proof of
Concept (POC) and a data scientist, who specializes in U.S. macroeconomic variables to uncover hidden
insights.
“Consulting was the biggest thing for me. STLogics acted as a partner with us to try to understand what
we wanted to accomplish and they were willing to explore different approaches, said Abercrombie.
“We chose to work with STLogics because it is an agile company that could provide what we needed at
prices we could afford. The Big Box vendors’ approach is here is what we have and here’s how the
process works. Their prices are pretty large as well.”
It’s All In the Data
The POC challenge posed by Brunswick’s Big Data team was twofold: identify U.S. macroeconomic
metrics which have most influenced past Express Cruiser sales, and forecast 2014-2018 annual sales for
both the small and large size Express Cruiser lines. The POC was launched in at the end of June 2014 and
concluded in late July.
“All of the data used was external and has been used before in our Boat Group’s forecasting. For the
POC, we were expanding those data variables many times larger,” said Abercrombie. “The philosophy
was to take a wide angle and use multiple data points. The POC was all inclusive adding all that data that
we could examine in this short period of time.”
Brunswick’s POC data had 1,000 variables, but was narrowed down to 44 for the pilot. U.S. boat
registrations, internal sales figures, and consumer sentiment data were examined. Some of the other
data variables that were considered were housing starts (Single/Multi Family), Light Vehicle Sales,
Industrial Production – Durable Consumer Goods and S&P500 Price Index.
“U.S. demand declined sharply during the 2008 recession for numerous luxury products and so-called
“big ticket” items dependent upon lending to buyers. Brunswick’s boat business was hit particularly
hard; net sales in 2009 was just 25 percent of the mark set in 2007,” said Curt Wehrley, STLogics Chief
Data Scientist.

3. 3
What U.S. Boat Registration Data Revealed
Express Cruiser registrations saw a material decline following the 2008 financial crisis. Boat registrations
for the 25 – 29 foot models were 3,545 in 2006 – the year the U.S. housing bubble peaked and 418 in
2014; an 88 percent decline over seven years. Registrations for the Express Cruiser 30 – 40 foot group
were 3,324 in 2006 – the year the U.S. housing bubble peaked and 639 in 2013; an 80 percent decline
over seven years.
Drawing a historical demand history comparison with similar markets reveals how profoundly the so-
called “Great Recession of 2008” affected the Express Cruiser market. The two graphs below span from
2000 Q1 through 2013 Q4 plotting the cumulative U.S. boat registrations by quarter (top graph), and the
smoothed trend (bottom graph).
Express Cruisers 25-29 Foot
Express Cruisers 30- 40 Foot
Some notable observations from the above graphs:
• Brunswick’s Express Cruiser market saw a material decline in demand months before the

4. 4
headlines of the Lehman Brothers collapse hit newspapers in September 2008 and the
subsequent stock market crash.
• The 25-29 foot group saw a 41 percent decline in 2008 Q2 registrations relative to 2007 Q2.
• Cumulative registrations for the 30-40 foot group had been in a steady declining trend during the
years leading up to the financial crisis.
• The trend for both groups has been roughly flat since early 2011.
Assessment of Other Data Metrics
STLogics’ chief data scientist also examined economic data as it relates to U.S. central banking trends,
the U.S. housing market, net worth, consumer prices, consumer deleveraging and consumer sentiment.
Based on his analysis, Wehrley recommended that Brunswick needs to keep its pulse on the lending
market in any way it can.
“Barring unprecedented growth in U.S. millionaires or a sea change in attitude among the currently
wealthy equipped to pay cash for any Express Cruiser, it appears to me that any sustained recovery in the
Express Cruiser segment will come on the back of either (a) more traditional marine lenders; (b) broadly
looser lending criteria; (c) new sources of lending (e.g. seller notes, hedge funds); or perhaps (d) a
clearing of any used boat inventory in excess of what the market can bear,” said Wehrley.
The Future of These Express Cruisers Models Is Looking Up
Using open source R software, STLogics’ data science team loaded and cleaned 14 years of historical
Express Cruiser registration figures and data for dozens of U.S. macroeconomic variables. Drawing from
years of prior experience in analyzing major segments of the U.S. economy, Wehrley conducted a
thorough exploration of the time series data. This led to the identification of a smaller group of variables
showing the most promise as predictors of Express Cruiser registrations. An auto-regressive integrated
moving average (ARIMA) model was fitted to the data, and used to predict Express Cruiser sales for the
years 2014 through 2018.

5. 5
A notable insight derived from the POC analysis was the Express Cruiser segment's unique dependence
upon favorable lending conditions for borrowers. STLogics delivered recommendations to Brunswick's
Big Data team on ways to measure the health of marine lending, advised a shift toward collection of
more microeconomic data, and offered strategic options to consider for the future of the Express
Cruiser line of boats.
“Although the wealthy individuals, who exemplify prospective Express Cruiser buyers, may frequently
not treat the level of investment as a top consideration for purchase, I would highly recommend
collection and retention of pricing data, “ said Wehrley. “Any future easing of bank lending criteria will
give the Brunswick Boat Group and its dealers access to a greater pool of prospective buyers at lower
tiers of net worth who may be, on average, more price-sensitive.“
Other POC Lessons Learned
Abercrombie adds that feedback from Brunswick’s executive sponsor of the Express Cruiser Big Data
pilot was that they are on the right track and that the company learned some things from the POC. He
admits, however, that Brunswick won’t be using a Big Data approach for future forecasting projections.
The company will be looking at other use cases within their other lines of business.
“Forecasting is not a typical Big Data project, but the findings were important to our company,” said
Abercrombie. “The actual forecast study proved that our numbers weren’t that much different than
what we’ve seen ourselves. However, the POC revealed that we need to add additional data to produce
even finer insight.”
Brunswick plans to apply Big Data analytic methods for small “quick wins” that are project based vs.
forecasting based.
“Brunswick’s Big Data plans over the next three to five years are to evaluate what resources are needed
on a short and long term basis, “ Abercrombie said. “ And we may continue to use data scientists on a
consultative basis, such as we did with STLogics.”
Next Brunswick Big Data Project
A new Brunswick Big Data project will be completed by year’s end to determine the best Marine boat
accessories and supplies to market based on location and seasonal sales figures. Data from its Texas
retailers will be used as a test model to determine ROI on each of these products. The goal is to find
out what is the top selling merchandise and at what time of the year does it sell the most. These data
insights will then be replicate nationwide to improve Brunswick’s marine accessories’ bottom line.
“No matter what the subject matter is or what Big Data analytical model we use to try to solve a
business problem, the results are only as good as the data,” concluded Abercrombie.