ACT Research maintained its view that truckload and intermodal contract rates will fall this year due to overcapacity and weak freight demand.

1. Americas Commercial Transportation Research Co. LLC
4440 Middle Road, Columbus, Indiana 47203
Telephone: (812) 379-2085, Fax: (812) 378-5997
E-Mail: trucks@actresearch.net
_______________________________
July 12, 2019
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE
ACT Research July Freight Forecast: Freight Recession is Here, but Evidence
Emerges to Support an Eventual Spot Upturn
COLUMBUS, IN – ACT Research released the July installment of the ACT Freight Forecast, U.S. Rate
and Volume OUTLOOK covering the truckload, intermodal, LTL and last mile sectors.
ACT Research maintained its view that truckload and intermodal contract rates will fall this year due to
overcapacity and weak freight demand.
Tim Denoyer, ACT Research’s Vice President and Senior Analyst, said, “It’s a good news/bad news report
this month. The bad news is we’re in a freight recession and the factors we focus on tell us spot rates are
headed still lower near-term, but that’s been going on for a while. The good news is that for the first time
this cycle, we see evidence on the horizon for an eventual bottoming and upturn in spot truckload rates,
thanks to low new truck orders and improving capital discipline from the trucking industry.”
Denoyer added, “The Truckload Rate Gauge
is currently signaling significant overcapacity,
favoring shippers in rate negotiations. But
based on our expectation for a decline in U.S.
Class 8 tractor build rates later in the year, the
supply side should begin to improve.”
The Truckload Rate Gauge is our measure of
industry supply/demand, balancing changes
in the number of active trucks and the amount
of available freight. The “Current” gauge gives
us a good directional feel for spot today and
contract in about six months, and the “Six
Months Out” gauge tells us about spot in six
months and contract in about a year.
The ACT Freight Forecast provides quarterly
forecasts for the direction of volumes and
contract rates through 2020 and annual forecasts through 2021 for the truckload, less-than-truckload and
intermodal segments of the transportation industry. For the truckload spot market, the report provides
forecasts for the next twelve months. For more information about ACT’s Freight Forecast, U.S. Rate and
Volume OUTLOOK, please click here.
ACT Research is recognized as the leading publisher of commercial vehicle truck, trailer, and bus industry
data, market analysis and forecasting services for the North American and China markets. ACT’s
analytical services are used by all major North American truck and trailer manufacturers and their
suppliers, transportation and logistics companies, as well as banking and investment companies. More
information can be found at www.actresearch.net.
ACT’s 61st seminar is scheduled for August 12-14, 2019, and will feature a transportation panel on e-
commerce and digital freight matching, as well as discussions on near-term demand of North American
commercial vehicle markets and the impacts of tomorrow’s technical challenges. A global forecasting
workshop is also being planned in conjunction with this semi-annual event. Click here for seminar
information.
Contributor to Blue Chip Economic Indicators and Member of WSJ Economic Panel
www.actresearch.net