Diaporama utilisé par Philippe Ledent, senior economist chez ING Belgium, lors de sa conférence au Forum financier de Charleroi, le 21 février 2019

1. Brexit, guerre commerciale et
protectionnisme : est-ce la fin
de la mondialisation ?
Philippe Ledent
Economic Research ING Belgique
Charleroi, 21 février 2019

2. Agenda
2
• Le Brexit
• Trump et la guerre commerciale
• Autres dérives protectionnistes
• La fin de la mondialisation? Quelles conséquences?
• La Chine à contre-courant

3. 3
Brexit deal (ou no-deal)

4. Une multitude d’accords…
4

5. …mais très peu de solutions
5
Source: M. Barnier (2017)

6. 118 Conservatives
Calling for customs union + “strong single market deal”
35 Scottish National Party
11 Liberal
Democrats
10 DUP
10 Other Roughly 70 Labour MPs and other opposition
parties are calling for a 2nd referendum
Comfortable with Irish Backstop tweak
Hard-liners want backstop removed entirely
248 Labour
432 MPs voted down May's Brexit deal, but for
differing reasons

7. Quels scénarios?
7
How could it happen?
• EU offers compromises on Irish backstop (if it were sure they would
change MP’s minds)
• All other viable options (2nd ref, election, Norway) voted down by MPs
• MPs decide to back deal as risks of ‘no deal’ focus minds in
Parliament
How likely? Tall order given EU unlikely to renegotiate, plus numbers
will still be heavily stacked against the Prime Minister’s deal in
Parliament on 2nd try
PM May’s deal ‘2.0’ approved
How could it happen?
• No alternative found before 29 March
• Favoured option in second
referendum
How likely? No majority in Parliament
for this option, but unless an alternative
is approved, this remains embedded in
UK law as the default option.
No deal – Default scenario
How could it happen?
• When PM May returns within 3 days, Parliament votes
in favour of pursuing deal with greater EU market
access (although vote not legally-binding)
• PM May pivots away from her deal & seeks consensus
with other parties
How likely? Many practical hurdles with customs
union/Norway-style plan, but such an option could
command a majority.
Different deal (e.g. Customs union)
How could it happen?
• No-confidence vote in government happens
but fails, so Labour publically back second
ref.
• Parliament votes down May’s deal + votes
against alternative Brexit models. Second ref
backed by MPs to break deadlock
How likely? Probability is drifting lower, given
Labour Party leadership reluctant to back it.
Would take several months to arrange.
Second-referendum
How could it happen?
• Labour Party introduces motion of
no confidence in the government.
Some Conservative and/or DUP MPs
support
How likely? Despite all the unease,
seems like a tall order for Conservatives
to vote themselves out of government.
Snap election

8. Quelle probabilité?
8
Scenario Probability (Rough estimates) Market reaction
Modified deal
passes on 2nd
attempt
EU unlikely to offer the compromises on
‘Irish backstop’ required for MPs to back
revised deal on second attempt
10%
EUR/GBP: 0.85
GBP/USD: 1.38
General
election
No confidence vote could happen again.
Some Conservative/DUP MPs must back it
for an election to happen
10%
Different deal
(e.g ‘Norway Plus’ or
permanent customs
union)
MPs could try to force the government to
pursue a different Brexit, although more
time needed
30%
EUR/GBP: 0.86
GBP/USD: 1.35
Article 50 extension required
Second
referendum
Not clear if majority favour this at this
stage, but could happen if MPs view it as
only way to break deadlock
30%
EUR/GBP: 0.84
GBP/USD: 1.40
No deal on 29
March
Remains the default option unless MPs can
agree on alternative plan – although most
MPs against no deal
20%
EUR/GBP: 0.95
GBP/USD: 1.20
EUR/GBP: 1.00
GBP/USD: 1.12
Probability-weighted market reaction - EUR/GBP: 0.89 GBP/USD: 1.31

9. Un délai sera probablement nécessaire
9
29 March
UK leaves EU
Number of weeks
27 February Next
big Brexit vote
General
election
14 days
Time
before
election
called
5 weeks (approx)
Minimum time
between calling &
holding election
21 sitting days
between
approval & law
taking effect
Renegotiation
(e.g Norway-
option)
5 weeks (?)
Government to
renegotiate changes
to the deal as
requested
by Parliament
21 sitting days
between
approval & law
taking effect
Second
referendum
4 weeks
Pass legislation
(probably much
longer!)
3 weeks (+)
Time for
new gov’t
to
renegotiate
12 weeks
Electoral commission tests question
for workability/bias etc
10 weeks
Minimum time to hold regulated campaign
Time to
implement
result?
3 weeks (?)
Time for
Parliament
to debate +
vote on new
deal
3 weeks (+)
Time for
Parliament
to debate +
vote on new
deal
Noconfidence
All times are very rough
estimates of the shortest
feasible time for events to
happen. In reality, each stage
could take much longer
Also assumes MPs decide next
steps quickly after voting for
an alternative path of action –
again, this probably won’t be
the case
 European Parliamentary Election 
Window

10. -4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Real wage growth (YoY% lhs)
ING
Forecast
Real wage growth =
Wage growth - inflation
(3-month
moving
En attendant, cela pèse sur l’économie
britannique
10
Source: Macrobond, ING forecasts
Sharp reality-check on wage squeeze
Consumers have cut back on discretionary
spending as prices rise faster than wages
More benign inflation outlook coupled with better
wage growth provides a better spending backdrop
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Post-Brexit
GfK Consumer confidence index
Despite better fundamentals, consumer
confidence is the lowest since 2013

11. 11
La Belgique est particulièrement exposée
au Royaume-Uni
FDI in the UK Exports to the UK
34,2%
30,8%
10,5%9,0% 8,0%
5,5% 4,6% 3,4% 2,7% 2,3% 1,0% 0,9% 0,4% 0,3% 0,1% 0,0%
FDI position in the UK (2014, % GDP)
5,8%
4,9%
3,7%
2,9%
1,8% 1,6%
1,2% 1,2% 1,2% 1,1% 1,1%
UK demand in % GDP exporting…
224%

12. 12
Certains secteurs de l’économie belge tirent une part
importante de leur activité des exportations vers le
Royaume-Uni.
Belgian top sectors by % of added value
from UK demand
17,5%
16,0%
13,4%
10,9%
8,7%
8,2%
7,9%
7,9%
7,5%
7,0%
5,4%
Leather, Leather and Footwear
Transport Equipment
Textiles and Textile Products
Electrical and Optical Equipment
Food, Beverages and Tobacco
Rubber and Plastics
Coke, Refined Petroleum and Nuclear
Fuel
Machinery, Nec
Agriculture, Hunting, Forestry and Fishing
Chemicals and Chemical Products
Basic Metals and Fabricated Metal

13. Impact à long terme (scénario OMC) sur les
économies
13
Source: Bisciari (2019)

14. Trump et la guerre commerciale
14

15. Bataille I : Pourquoi le gouvernement américain
a-t-il lancé une guerre commerciale contre la
Chine ?
15
Les USA ont certaines craintes face aux ambitions chinoises

16. Trump aurait-
il raison?
16

17. Impact des tarifs sur le commerce mondial
17
• Central scenario:
Augmentation des
tarifs américains à
25% sur les
importations
chinoises en T2
• Downside risk:
Augmentation des
tarifs sur TOUS les
produits chinois en
T3
• Upside risk: un
accord

18. La guerre commerciale touche l’économie
chinoise
18
PMI Chine: commandes à l’exportation
Croissance exportations chinoises

19. La demande domestique diminue
19
Ventes de voitures
Ventes d’utilitaires légers

20. La Chine est importante pour le commerce
extérieur européen
20
La Chine est le premier partenaire d’importations de l’UE

21. Bataille 2 : l’Europe… et ses voitures
21
Part de la valeur ajoutée du secteur automobile liée à la demande
américaine de voitures européennes (incluant l’exportation de biens
intermédiaires liés à des exportations finales de voitures)

22. Impact sur le PIB
22
0,00%
0,10%
0,20%
0,30%
0,40%
0,50%
0,60%
0,70%
Part du PIB liée à la demande américaine
de voitures européennes

23. Vers une guerre commerciale ?
23

24. Et puis il y a le reste…
24
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Liberalising Discriminatory
Mesures en faveur ou contre le libre-échange
Source: Global Trade Alert

25. Quels secteurs font l’objet de mesures?
25

26. Degré d’ouverture de l’économie mondiale
26

27. Degré d’ouverture de l’économie mondiale
27

28. Dé-mondialisation : quelles conséquences?
Situation actuelle : les indicateurs montrent une
situation… mitigée
28
OECD leading indicator
Eurozone
UK
USA
Japon
Belgique

29. La croissance économique est inférieure aux
standards du passé
29
Croissance tendancielle
des pays de l’OCDE (MM 5 ans)
Moyenne 1975-2007

30. tendances de fond feront la croissance de demain
30
Croissance
de long
terme
(Dé)-
mondialisation
Changements
climatiques
Démographie
Innovation
4

31. Le commerce international et la Belgique
31
Le cycle économique belge est fortement
lié au commerce mondial
Les exportations
belges, c’est:
- 40% de la
valeur ajoutée
- 1 emploi sur 3

32. La Chine à contre-courant
32

33. Le plan “Made in China 2025”
33

34. Les nouvelles routes,
pour renforcer la mondialisation
34

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