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Brexit slides_-_pdf

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Intersting info on the EU Referendum

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Brexit slides_-_pdf

  1. 1. 11 EU Referendum 19th April 2016
  2. 2. Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?
  3. 3. • Referendum after decades of division • EU debate brought down Margaret Thatcher, wounded John Major • Euroscepticism on the rise since 2008 • The result will define the future of David Cameron, Conservatives and UK 65days to go Background
  4. 4. Source: What UK Thinks Source: YouGov/Times Current Polling – Neck and Neck
  5. 5. Male Female 40% 41% 19% 40% 36% 24% Source: YouGov/Times Current Polling - Gender
  6. 6. Vote by region Current Polling - Regions Remain Leave
  7. 7. 32% 51% 17% 62% 22% 16% 64% 23% 13% Current Polling - Party 90% 7% 3% Source: YouGov/Times polling
  8. 8. Current Polling - Age
  9. 9. Sir Lynton Crosby: “the outcome of the referendum will hinge on which side can better turnout their supporters rather than which side can better persuade the small number of voters not locked into supporting either side” 70% of Leave voters are certain to vote versus 61% of Remain supporters certain to vote Turnout
  10. 10. • Campaign officially underway • Conservative Party increasingly divided • Labour Party have weak leadership • ‘’Events’’ risk vote to leave • Public showing lack of engagement The state of play
  11. 11. The Prime Minister negotiated a package of reforms National Parliaments are given a ‘Red Card’ to veto EU legislation Financial protections are granted to the City and to non-Eurozone states Regulation and Red Tape will be cut in favor of a more competitive approach Ever Closer Union is accepted to be unsuitable for Britain An Emergency Brake can be placed on welfare of immigrants for up to 7 years What’s on Offer
  12. 12. Media Hysteria
  13. 13. Remain Campaign
  14. 14. Remain Messaging
  15. 15. Leave Campaign
  16. 16. Leave Messaging
  17. 17. Remain Leave Economy Immigration Sovereignty Security Key Arguments Prioritise trade and investment with the EU Single Market Want trade deals with emerging markets, maintaining access to Single Market Free movement of labour is vital to growth and productivity Criticise strain on public services, argue for points-based policy Sovereignty is enhanced by pooling with neighbours Sovereignty lost to unelected, undemocratic EU Security and solidarity through working with allies NATO is center of European security, and argue EU makes us less secure
  18. 18. If the UK Votes to Leave …
  19. 19. The process of withdrawing from the EU Article 50 • Article 50 of the Treaty of the European Union outlines the two year withdrawal process for a member state • Article 50 has never been tested, and any extension must be agreed unanimously at the EU Council • If there is no deal after 2 years, member states must unanimously agree to an extension
  20. 20. If the UK votes to leave: short-term Implications for the UK Implications for the EU David Cameron forced to resign, Boris Johnson frontrunner to replace Implications for UK Presidency of EU Council, Q3 & Q4 2017 Second Scottish Independence Referendum Cabinet Office and Foreign Office estimate ‘decade of uncertainty’
  21. 21. Implications for the UK Implications for the EU More referenda & possible exits, (Sweden, NL) Less counter-balance to German domination, Southern Europe protectionism Financial services affected, possible loss of Pass-porting rights Russia would increase influence on European continent Impact on investment in manufacturing and industry Pivot to Asia, Africa, Commonwealth Economic Uncertainty Implications for global politics Bank of England preparing stimulus to keep economy stable Rationale for UK-China Golden Age is threatened, status as preferred partner is undermined If the UK votes to leave: long-term
  22. 22. Brexit Bandwagon
  23. 23. Alternative models What would the UK look like outside the EU? • Canada has negotiated the CETA trade deal with the EU • Must obey EU rules and quotas with no say in their creation • Switzerland has a comprehensive trade deal with the EU • Contributes to EU budget, complies with EU regulation accepts free movement of people • Norway trades freely as part of EFTA • Pays over €650 million annually to the EU budget, complies with regulations
  24. 24. The WTO option • British trade with EU would revert to WTO rules unless a new treaty is agreed • A range of tariffs would be applied to British goods.
  25. 25. If the UK Votes to Stay …
  26. 26. If the UK votes to stay Implications for the EU Implications for the UK Long term consequences British renegotiation implemented, 2-speed EU officially recognized Margin of victory will matter Euroscepticism will not go away EU focus returns to growth, refugees, Russia Surge in pound as investor confidence returns German Federal Elections in 2017 could see a new de facto leader of the EU TTIP to be negotiated before President Obama leaves office Conservative leadership contest – David Cameron to leave before 2020 EU will struggle to remain competitive on global stage compared How people voted will remain a ‘badge of honour’ in British Politics
  27. 27. Conclusion
  28. 28. Predictions Remain is likely to win Turnout will be key ‘Project fear’ right up until polling day Events could change everything
  29. 29. 3232 Thank You 18th April 2016

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