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Brexit – what happens next?

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Slides from a webinar which took place on 6 September 2018. Presented by Chris Walker, senior external relations officer at NCVO, and Ben Westerman, NCVO's Brexit lead.

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Brexit – what happens next?

  1. 1. BREXIT – WHAT HAPPENS NEXT? SEPTEMBER 2018
  2. 2. INTRODUCTIONS • Chris Walker Parliamentary lead, NCVO • Ben Westerman Brexit lead, NCVO
  3. 3. ABOUT THE WEBINAR • 30 minute presentation • 15 minutes Q&A Please type your questions into the questions panel at any time (at the bottom of your webinar dashboard) • Please complete the short follow-up survey upon exiting the webinar. 3
  4. 4. NEGOTIATIONS WITH THE EU
  5. 5. WHAT DO YOU THINK IS THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME OF BREXIT?
  6. 6. WHAT IS THE CURRENT PROPOSAL? • Chequers white paper – a ‘pragmatic Brexit’ • Economic partnership • Security • Cooperation • Future relationship
  7. 7. WHAT ARE THE CONTENTIOUS BITS? • Free trade area with a ‘common rule book’ • Facilitated customs arrangement • Accepting ECJ rulings • Looser relationship on services
  8. 8. PEOPLE? • Future immigration system? • ‘Allow citizens to travel freely, without a visa, for tourism and temporary business activities’ • Rights of EU nationals remain uncertain.
  9. 9. REACTION – UK • Major government upheaval – 10 resignations • ‘Brexit in name only’ • ERG customs bill amendments • White paper ‘in tatters’
  10. 10. REACTION – EU • Withdrawal agreement ‘80% complete’ • Commitment to the Four Freedoms • ‘Preparedness paper’ • Is the white paper in the EU’s interest?
  11. 11. POSSIBLE OUTCOMES • High alignment • Low alignment or Canada + + • No deal or WTO Brexit • A ‘European fudge’?
  12. 12. WHAT’S LEFT TO BE SETTLED? • 20% of withdrawal • Ireland • EU citizens’ rights • Will parliament pass any deal? • Second referendum?
  13. 13. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR CHARITIES? • Treasury to underwrite ESF • No deal funding pledge • Shared prosperity fund • EU citizens’ rights
  14. 14. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR CHARITIES? • Growing need • Income problems • Trouble finding staff • Difficulty in policy making
  15. 15. WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR CHARITIES? ‘There is high risk that the government will not use Brexit to support the work of the charity sector based on current policy statements. This means that charities will be left with all of the costs of Brexit and none of the opportunities’
  16. 16. WHAT DO YOU THINK IS THE BIGGEST ISSUE FOR YOUR ORGANISATION ARISING FROM BREXIT?
  17. 17. GETTING A DEAL THROUGH PARLIAMENT
  18. 18. WHAT DO THE GOVERNMENT HAVE TO DO? 19 Agree a deal Have a motion agreeing to the deal passed in the House of Commons Pass legislation to implement the withdrawal agreement Ratification process
  19. 19. WHICH GROUPS IN PARLIAMENT WILL DECIDE • Government has to agree something with the EU • European Research Group (up to 80 Tory MPs, much smaller core) • Pro-remain Tory rebels (between 1 and 15 depending on issue) • Labour leadership (priority is bringing down government) • Labour soft Brexiteers (potentially significant but will be cautious)
  20. 20. GOLDILOCKS BREXIT • Can’t be too soft for ERG • Can’t be too hard for Conservative remainers/opposition • Opposition may vote against whatever 21
  21. 21. PARLIAMENTARY MOTION ON THE DEAL • When a deal has been agreed, the government will put forward a motion on the deal • Has to secure Commons approval • Will be amendable • Will be considered, but not voted on in the Lords
  22. 22. THE NUMBERS • Narrow Conservative + DUP majority • 7 Con/DUP rebels needed to vote down deal • In practice, government will probably need opposition votes to pass a deal
  23. 23. WHAT IF PARLIAMENT SAYS NO? • Government will have to issue a statement setting out revised approach • There will be a debate on the statement • Government could table further motions
  24. 24. EU (WITHDRAWAL AGREEMENT) BILL • Will only be introduced if parliament approves the deal • Implements the withdrawal agreement, including transition until end of 2020 • Amendable, so delaying tactics could be used
  25. 25. MEANINGFUL VOTE? • Debate on a neutral motion eg that this House has considered the government’s approach to exiting the EU • Could lose, but not binding • Possible trigger for political crisis
  26. 26. YOU CAN’T VOTE TO AVOID NO DEAL
  27. 27. BETTER LATE THAN NEVER?
  28. 28. HAS YOUR ORGANISATION DONE ANY PLANNING FOR NO DEAL?
  29. 29. USEFUL RESOURCES/READING Institute for Government report on potential scenarios https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publications/possible- scenarios-next-phase-brexit UK in a Changing Europe report on the impact of no deal http://ukandeu.ac.uk/research-papers/cost-of-no-deal-revisited/ Charity Finance Group cost benefit analysis of Brexit for charities https://www.cfg.org.uk/BrexitReport2018 IPPR report on post-Brexit charity workforce https://www.ippr.org/research/publications/the-charity-workforce-in- post-brexit-britain
  30. 30. UPCOMING TRAINING/EVENTS • Campaigning Conference – 10 Sept • Certificate in Campaigning – starts 19 October • Influencing parliament – 14 Sept • Influencing select committees – 23 Nov https://www.ncvo.org.uk/training-and- events/events-listing
  31. 31. Q&A
  32. 32. THANK YOU Please complete the short feedback survey which appears when you exit the webinar. Get in touch if you’d like us to provide any advice/present to your organisation. Ben Westerman 020 7520 3168 Chris Walker chris.walker@ncvo.org.uk 020 7520 3167 Twitter: @_c_walker33

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