This document discusses emerging paradigms in project management. It notes that organizations need to adapt to a world without physical limits due to digital technologies. Projects are transitioning from a focus on adherence to plans to delivering value. Estimating work is challenging due to uncertain factors, and agility is now required. The future of project management involves viewing projects as services and products, separating business and IT, and focusing on risk management and continuous delivery of value rather than one-time state transfers. New approaches like "popcorn flow" and rightshifting challenges are discussed.

1. Breaching
Paradigms in
Project Management
Robert Weißgraeber
21th October 2015,Amsterdam

2. /me
Robert Weißgraeber
CPO @ AX Semantics

3. what we do:
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black
I love jeans! These black EXPOSURE LOW
sneakers by Diesel are avowed fans of
denim and therefore come in a trendy jeans
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elements, for instance the coin pocket, the
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4. what we do:
Diesel EXPOSURE LOW - Sneaker -
black
I love jeans! These black EXPOSURE LOW
sneakers by Diesel are avowed fans of
denim and therefore come in a trendy jeans
look, as reflected by the traditional denim
elements, for instance the coin pocket, the
typical rivets and a deep pocket. A declaration
of love for the popular denim look: Diesel
EXPOSURE LOW sneakers in black.
x10000

5. what we do:
Diesel EXPOSURE LOW - Sneaker -
black
I love jeans! These black EXPOSURE LOW
sneakers by Diesel are avowed fans of
denim and therefore come in a trendy jeans
look, as reflected by the traditional denim
elements, for instance the coin pocket, the
typical rivets and a deep pocket. A declaration
of love for the popular denim look: Diesel
EXPOSURE LOW sneakers in black.
x10000
x!
" # $ %
& '

6. www.ax-semantics.com

7. @robert_we
#foodkoma

8. №
1
Why?

9. “Software is eating the world.”
- Marc Andreesen

10. “Today every company is a
software company.That
includes John Deere and
Nordstrom.”
- @barry_crist (CEO @ Chef)

11. You don’t own a John Deere anymore.

12. More stuff is being done in
software.
Even Hardware.

13. faster, FASTER!
Kodak
Zynga
Rovio UPS

14. „Uber, the world’s largest taxi company,
owns no vehicles. Facebook, the world’s
most popular media owner, creates no
content.Alibaba, the most valuable
retailer, has no inventory.And Airbnb, the
world’s largest accommodation provider,
owns no real estate.“
http://techcrunch.com/2015/03/03/in-the-age-of-disintermediation-the-battle-is-all-for-the-customer-interface/

15. Creation of value is not bound to capital.
Ownership is a legacy concept
from the industrial era.
Katharina Brunner, http://katharinabrunner.de/2015/03/besitz-ist-sowas-von-industriezeitalter/

16. “Over two billion people now
use the broadband Internet,
up from perhaps 50 million a
decade ago, […].
In the next 10 years, I expect
at least five billion people
worldwide to own
smartphones.”
- Marc Andreesen, 2011

17. №
2
Now what?

18. Agility is not a choice
anymore.

19. Digital options
enable non-physical
domains.

20. №
3
Project Management:
Current State

21. Projects are
default.
When you look at it | by Damian Gadal / Flickr

22. Projects transition the
org from one state to
the other.

23. PM Aspects
• definition of success: adherence to a plan (a goal)
• life cycle management
• project professionality

25. Methods &Tools
Professional Project Management
en.wikipedia.org

26. Schools of Thought
• Agile
• "Modern Waterfall“: Unified Process, CCPM
• Lean

27. New Stuff!
R-7 8K72 „Vostok" - Wikipedia

28. #NoEstimates
• time, as in effort of a task, can not be compared
• duration depends on lots of factors: resources, task-switching
• value and cost are not related
• requirements get stale and have no learning possibility.
• while implementing the work, we discover what is is about.
• system „gaming“ and human fallacies lead to ignored potential
• focus on delivering value, not following a plan

29. Cost of Delay
Annotated Deadlines for
priorization

30. Beyond Budgeting: Beta Codex
• „beta principles“
• a fully networked
organisation
• inside-out operations
model
© Niels Pfläging

31. №
4
Conclusions?
Wrap up?

32. Organizations will need to
compete in a world with
non-physical limits.

33. Fat-tailed distributions are real.
Wikipedia / Black swan

34. Fat-tailed distributions are real.
Wikipedia / Black swan

35. Fat-tailed distributions are real.
Wikipedia / Black swan

37. Agility is not optional anymore.

38. Projects as a method to get
somewhere can not be left to the
amateurs - and not to the PMs.

39. We solved doing things right.
Now up: doing the right things.

40. №
5
Future of PM?
what you need to have a look at – changing paradigms

41. Projects
are Products
that are Services
we create and deliver.
Let’s call that
service creation & service delivery.

42. “NowThat Software's Eaten
the World, It's Started to Eat
the Company“
~ Drew Hendricks (Forbes)

43. Separation of
Business and IT

44. Means of labor
production are
hidden behind
software.
> Builder instead of
Manager.
Managed By Q.
ZenPayroll

45. Supply
• make
• buy
• lease
Involvement
• do
• involve
• externalize
Boundaries
• embrace or get
replaced
make or buy?

46. • no more a single „IT department“
• embedded in the whole organisation
• manage relations: with customers, suppliers,
employees
Software Development is getting
bigger.

47. Risk
Management

48. Risk Management
• Classic:
analytical – complicated
• Fokus on unkwon
but knowledgeable
risks
• ManagingTechnical
Debt
• Modern:
non-analytic – complex
• non-stochastical risk
models („black
swan“)
• Craftsmanship
• proven delivery of
value

49. Your biggest risk is creating
software that is not being
used.

50. Your Project is not a
one-time state transfer.
• It’s a „Flow of States“
• Change is Default
• States need to be reliably reproducible
• PM needs to create that „flow“
enviroment

51. @agilesensei - popcornflow.com

52. Rightshifting
Bob Marshall „The Marshall Model“

53. We have…
#NoEstimates
#NoProjects
#NoManagement
#NoEmployees
#NoGoats
#NoNo
What is next?
#NoXXX
Challenge existing solutions
for real needs - by exploring
the ideas behind the need.

54. (take a breath)

55. Thank you.
Robert Weißgraeber,AX Semantics
@robert_we