This document discusses the cash flow view of banks and non-deterministic cash flows. It notes that understanding cash flow behavior is key to managing bank liquidity and product pricing. There are three parameters that define a cash flow: amount, tenor, and currency. Time value and liquidity are two characteristics that define cash flow riskiness. The document outlines various bank balance sheet categories like retail loans, credit cards, deposits, etc. and how their cash flows are non-deterministic, deviating from contractual terms. It emphasizes analyzing non-maturing deposits, which have major implications for rate sensitivity and liquidity. Factors like product type, transactional nature, business segment, and deposit size drive depositor behavior and cash flow analysis
The blog provide some key insights on the subject – as to how to compute EIR for fixed or floating rate instruments, how to compute EIR for products which involves both interest income and fee income, what are the challenges which banks might face while computing EIR, what are the operational simplifications which banks might consider while computing EIR.
In the backdrop of the buzz that Interest Rate Risk in the Banking Book (IRRBB) has generated in the banking industry, Aptivaa is pleased to launch a series of articles providing our perspective on various issues highlighted by our esteemed clients during interactions in the recent months. This post gives an overview of the revised guidelines on IRRBB which has been issued by the Basel Committee, the approaches and the associated challenges in the implementation of IRRBB framework for all internationally active banks.We look forward to your valuable feedback on the current article or the challenges faced by you in IRRBB implementation.
Aptivaa is pleased to launch a series of blogs to apprise readers of some of the key aspects related mostly to Impairment Modeling, for compliance with the new accounting standards (IFRS 9), as well as to have a conversation with the readers about the challenges that banks are facing in their implementation efforts.
In our second post ‘building blocks of Impairment Modeling’, we had highlighted that IFRS 9 uses a ‘three stage model’ for measurement of ECL, and one of the major challenges of implementing this model was tracking and determining whether there has been a significant increase in risk of a credit exposure since origination. This blog post delves into the intricacies related to the three stage model, and some nuances that need to be considered for a bank looking to implement IFRS 9.
Continuing with our updates on the key aspects of IFRS 9 Implementation, our current post (attached) talks about “Exposure at Default (EAD)” where, possible uses and business interpretation nuances of terms linked to EAD are highlighted. The post enumerates on the computation methods of EAD and the modeling approaches available for each of the methods with key consideration points from Basel and IFRS9 perspectives highlighted in between for the readers.
We look forward to your valuable feedback on the current article or the challenges faced by you in IFRS9 implementation.
As discussed in our previous blog, PIT PD describes an expectation of the future, starting from the current situation and integrating all relevant cyclical changes & all values of the obligor idiosyncratic effect with appropriate probabilities. A PIT PD mimics the observed default rates over a period of time. TTC PDs, in contrast, reflect circumstances anticipated over an extremely long period, and thus nullify the effects of credit cycle. Basing it on these definitions, the current article focuses on range of PD Calibration approaches for aligning internal rating model output with actual default rates.
Continuing with our updates on the key aspects of IFRS 9 Implementation, our current post (attached) talks about “Impairment Modelling in Retail ” where, key challenges are highlighted through questions and different solutions are proposed to address the same. The post attempts to address some key implementation challenges such as; Which approach to follow for analysis of retail portfolios?, What timeframe to consider for estimating lifetime of retail products?, How to link forward looking information with PDs? How to carry out Stage Allocation? And, what are the methods for calculation of ECL for Retail Portfolios?
A key metric that summarizes the credit worthiness of a bank’s obligor is the Probability of Default (PD). Besides credit worthiness assessment and capital computation under IRB, PD is one of the key metrics required in the updated IFRS 9 accounting standards. At present, there are many PD related terminologies used in the banking industry, such as: PIT PD, TTC PD, 12-month PD and so on. Such a wide spectrum of terminologies has led to confusion among users, especially when it comes to IFRS 9, which lays special focus on PIT PD and lifetime PD. This blog intends to clarify these key terminologies.
The blog provide some key insights on the subject – as to how to compute EIR for fixed or floating rate instruments, how to compute EIR for products which involves both interest income and fee income, what are the challenges which banks might face while computing EIR, what are the operational simplifications which banks might consider while computing EIR.
In the backdrop of the buzz that Interest Rate Risk in the Banking Book (IRRBB) has generated in the banking industry, Aptivaa is pleased to launch a series of articles providing our perspective on various issues highlighted by our esteemed clients during interactions in the recent months. This post gives an overview of the revised guidelines on IRRBB which has been issued by the Basel Committee, the approaches and the associated challenges in the implementation of IRRBB framework for all internationally active banks.We look forward to your valuable feedback on the current article or the challenges faced by you in IRRBB implementation.
Aptivaa is pleased to launch a series of blogs to apprise readers of some of the key aspects related mostly to Impairment Modeling, for compliance with the new accounting standards (IFRS 9), as well as to have a conversation with the readers about the challenges that banks are facing in their implementation efforts.
In our second post ‘building blocks of Impairment Modeling’, we had highlighted that IFRS 9 uses a ‘three stage model’ for measurement of ECL, and one of the major challenges of implementing this model was tracking and determining whether there has been a significant increase in risk of a credit exposure since origination. This blog post delves into the intricacies related to the three stage model, and some nuances that need to be considered for a bank looking to implement IFRS 9.
Continuing with our updates on the key aspects of IFRS 9 Implementation, our current post (attached) talks about “Exposure at Default (EAD)” where, possible uses and business interpretation nuances of terms linked to EAD are highlighted. The post enumerates on the computation methods of EAD and the modeling approaches available for each of the methods with key consideration points from Basel and IFRS9 perspectives highlighted in between for the readers.
We look forward to your valuable feedback on the current article or the challenges faced by you in IFRS9 implementation.
As discussed in our previous blog, PIT PD describes an expectation of the future, starting from the current situation and integrating all relevant cyclical changes & all values of the obligor idiosyncratic effect with appropriate probabilities. A PIT PD mimics the observed default rates over a period of time. TTC PDs, in contrast, reflect circumstances anticipated over an extremely long period, and thus nullify the effects of credit cycle. Basing it on these definitions, the current article focuses on range of PD Calibration approaches for aligning internal rating model output with actual default rates.
Continuing with our updates on the key aspects of IFRS 9 Implementation, our current post (attached) talks about “Impairment Modelling in Retail ” where, key challenges are highlighted through questions and different solutions are proposed to address the same. The post attempts to address some key implementation challenges such as; Which approach to follow for analysis of retail portfolios?, What timeframe to consider for estimating lifetime of retail products?, How to link forward looking information with PDs? How to carry out Stage Allocation? And, what are the methods for calculation of ECL for Retail Portfolios?
A key metric that summarizes the credit worthiness of a bank’s obligor is the Probability of Default (PD). Besides credit worthiness assessment and capital computation under IRB, PD is one of the key metrics required in the updated IFRS 9 accounting standards. At present, there are many PD related terminologies used in the banking industry, such as: PIT PD, TTC PD, 12-month PD and so on. Such a wide spectrum of terminologies has led to confusion among users, especially when it comes to IFRS 9, which lays special focus on PIT PD and lifetime PD. This blog intends to clarify these key terminologies.
IFRS 9 defines “Credit Loss” in terms of “Cash Shortfall” or credit loss estimation through projected cash flow discounting. However, there is little explicit information available as to how “Cash Shortfall” should be computed; should it be computed separately or along with “Expected” default path of the borrower, leading to ambiguity around the subject. IFRS 9 has specifically given inputs on PD estimation however, on LGD there is no such specific directives available. The ambiguity around the subject raises a few questions. The blog explores the limits of current knowledge (theoretical and empirical), and offers some preliminary guidance on such questions.
Strategic implications of IFRS9 oliver wymanGeoff Holmes
IFRS9 will fundamentally change the level and dynamics of credit provisions, and will result in significantly diminished returns for some segments. To date, most banks have focussed on ensuring compliance, but with the 2018 implementation deadline approaching attention is turning to understanding and mitigating the impacts.
IFRS9 materially impacts lending economics, particularly for consumer credit and SME products where some segments will be significantly less attractive than today. Given all lenders are affected, this represents a challenge and an opportunity. Those who develop their responses early and optimise their actions stand a good chance of getting ahead of the competition.
The paper attached examines how IFRS9 impacts profitability, where the effects are most material, and how lenders can respond.
As the methodologies for IFRS 9 Implementation are still evolving, many banks are in the process of developing a roadmap towards implementation and are still evaluating methodologies that are likely to conform to the principles of proportionality and materiality. To this end, Banks being advised are to develop a Target Operating Model (TOM) design, which seeks to identify and document the work program required to meet IFRS 9 requirements on Impairment modelling and ECL estimation.
On 18th December 2015, the Basel Committee for Banking Supervision (BCBS) published its final insights on sound credit risk and accounting practices associated with the implementation of IFRS 9 Expected Credit Losses (ECL) accounting frameworks.
In this post, we will be highlighting and deliberating upon some of the key issues which have been discussed in the BCBS guidance note, and their impact on various banks.
Continuing with our updates on the key aspects of IFRS 9 Implementation, our current post (attached) talks about “IFRS 9 Impairment Solution”. The post aims to provide key insights, which might assist banks’ in selecting a strategic solution that will future-proof the investment towards successful IFRS 9 implementation. The post enumerates on the key desirable features both from functional and technical viewpoints, which a strategic IFRS 9 solution should possess and will benefit our readers to make an important choice.
IFRS9 is a new international accounting standard that will affect debt owners, including mortgage lenders and Special Purpose Vehicles, from January 2018. It will replace IAS39.
At present under IAS39, lenders need to calculate an expected loss value for just those accounts that are impaired. Under IFRS9, a lender must reassess the probability of any of their customers defaulting and the resulting expected losses for all exposures - and this will need to be carried out each reporting period.
This white paper explains the challenges IFRS9 presents and how HML’s can help lenders and SPVs with accurate provisioning.
In our earlier blog, we discussed PD terminology and PD calibration approaches as applicable to the IFRS 9 framework. In this blog, we have discussed the methodologies for adjusting PDs for the ‘forward-looking’ macroeconomic scenarios and development of PD Term Structure.
IFRS 9 : Accounting Meets Risk Management by En Shah ZainAlbakry Azis
"IFRS 9 : Accounting Meets Risk Management - Challenged and Solutions for Fixed Income Instruments" was presented by En Shah Zain, Chief Business Officer from Bond Pricing Agency Malaysia during the BPAM Annual Client Update 2016.
As the race against time to comply with IFRS 9 guidelines begins, several software solutions are being bandied about as a quick fix solution for automating the entire impairment modelling process. While automating is definitely the way to go in initiatives such as these, the question remains as to whether the software architecture should be of a strategic integrated nature or one that is decoupled and modular. In Aptivaa, we believe the answer to this lies in the 4Rs question: Readiness, Reflectiveness, Redundancy and Regularity.
In the backdrop of the buzz that IFRS-9 has generated in the banking industry, Aptivaa is pleased to launch a series of articles providing our perspective on various issues highlighted by our esteemed clients during interactions in the recent months. First in the series is our take on the latest BCBS paper which requires ‘high quality’, ‘robust’ & ‘consistent’ implementation of Expected Credit Loss (ECL) framework for all internationally active banks.
Key highlights from BCBS guidance are:
§ Banks should consider the principle of proportionality and materiality while finalizing the methodology for ECL estimation
§ BCBS allows the immediate reversal of allowance in case of credit quality improvement, recognising that ECL accounting frameworks are symmetrical
§ Limited use of IFRS 9 practical expedients such as, more than 30 days past due, low credit risk exemption & information set
§ Inclusion of forward looking information and macroeconomic forecasts to the historical information in the ECL estimation process
§ Requirement of robust policies and procedures for model governance and validation which is in line with regulatory requirements for Basel II IRB purposes
Please find enclosed the white paper, which provides in-depth details of the key aspects discussed by the Basel Committee and our view on the same.
IFRS 9 defines “Credit Loss” in terms of “Cash Shortfall” or credit loss estimation through projected cash flow discounting. However, there is little explicit information available as to how “Cash Shortfall” should be computed; should it be computed separately or along with “Expected” default path of the borrower, leading to ambiguity around the subject. IFRS 9 has specifically given inputs on PD estimation however, on LGD there is no such specific directives available. The ambiguity around the subject raises a few questions. The blog explores the limits of current knowledge (theoretical and empirical), and offers some preliminary guidance on such questions.
Strategic implications of IFRS9 oliver wymanGeoff Holmes
IFRS9 will fundamentally change the level and dynamics of credit provisions, and will result in significantly diminished returns for some segments. To date, most banks have focussed on ensuring compliance, but with the 2018 implementation deadline approaching attention is turning to understanding and mitigating the impacts.
IFRS9 materially impacts lending economics, particularly for consumer credit and SME products where some segments will be significantly less attractive than today. Given all lenders are affected, this represents a challenge and an opportunity. Those who develop their responses early and optimise their actions stand a good chance of getting ahead of the competition.
The paper attached examines how IFRS9 impacts profitability, where the effects are most material, and how lenders can respond.
As the methodologies for IFRS 9 Implementation are still evolving, many banks are in the process of developing a roadmap towards implementation and are still evaluating methodologies that are likely to conform to the principles of proportionality and materiality. To this end, Banks being advised are to develop a Target Operating Model (TOM) design, which seeks to identify and document the work program required to meet IFRS 9 requirements on Impairment modelling and ECL estimation.
On 18th December 2015, the Basel Committee for Banking Supervision (BCBS) published its final insights on sound credit risk and accounting practices associated with the implementation of IFRS 9 Expected Credit Losses (ECL) accounting frameworks.
In this post, we will be highlighting and deliberating upon some of the key issues which have been discussed in the BCBS guidance note, and their impact on various banks.
Continuing with our updates on the key aspects of IFRS 9 Implementation, our current post (attached) talks about “IFRS 9 Impairment Solution”. The post aims to provide key insights, which might assist banks’ in selecting a strategic solution that will future-proof the investment towards successful IFRS 9 implementation. The post enumerates on the key desirable features both from functional and technical viewpoints, which a strategic IFRS 9 solution should possess and will benefit our readers to make an important choice.
IFRS9 is a new international accounting standard that will affect debt owners, including mortgage lenders and Special Purpose Vehicles, from January 2018. It will replace IAS39.
At present under IAS39, lenders need to calculate an expected loss value for just those accounts that are impaired. Under IFRS9, a lender must reassess the probability of any of their customers defaulting and the resulting expected losses for all exposures - and this will need to be carried out each reporting period.
This white paper explains the challenges IFRS9 presents and how HML’s can help lenders and SPVs with accurate provisioning.
In our earlier blog, we discussed PD terminology and PD calibration approaches as applicable to the IFRS 9 framework. In this blog, we have discussed the methodologies for adjusting PDs for the ‘forward-looking’ macroeconomic scenarios and development of PD Term Structure.
IFRS 9 : Accounting Meets Risk Management by En Shah ZainAlbakry Azis
"IFRS 9 : Accounting Meets Risk Management - Challenged and Solutions for Fixed Income Instruments" was presented by En Shah Zain, Chief Business Officer from Bond Pricing Agency Malaysia during the BPAM Annual Client Update 2016.
As the race against time to comply with IFRS 9 guidelines begins, several software solutions are being bandied about as a quick fix solution for automating the entire impairment modelling process. While automating is definitely the way to go in initiatives such as these, the question remains as to whether the software architecture should be of a strategic integrated nature or one that is decoupled and modular. In Aptivaa, we believe the answer to this lies in the 4Rs question: Readiness, Reflectiveness, Redundancy and Regularity.
In the backdrop of the buzz that IFRS-9 has generated in the banking industry, Aptivaa is pleased to launch a series of articles providing our perspective on various issues highlighted by our esteemed clients during interactions in the recent months. First in the series is our take on the latest BCBS paper which requires ‘high quality’, ‘robust’ & ‘consistent’ implementation of Expected Credit Loss (ECL) framework for all internationally active banks.
Key highlights from BCBS guidance are:
§ Banks should consider the principle of proportionality and materiality while finalizing the methodology for ECL estimation
§ BCBS allows the immediate reversal of allowance in case of credit quality improvement, recognising that ECL accounting frameworks are symmetrical
§ Limited use of IFRS 9 practical expedients such as, more than 30 days past due, low credit risk exemption & information set
§ Inclusion of forward looking information and macroeconomic forecasts to the historical information in the ECL estimation process
§ Requirement of robust policies and procedures for model governance and validation which is in line with regulatory requirements for Basel II IRB purposes
Please find enclosed the white paper, which provides in-depth details of the key aspects discussed by the Basel Committee and our view on the same.
Strategic Intraday Liquidity Monitoring Solution for Banks: Looking Beyond Re...Cognizant
Managing intraday liquidity monitoring is an essential task for banks facing potential shortfalls in cash flow due to highly complex collaborations with other institutions and clients. To go beyond mere compliance with regulatory strictures, we offer a path toward an intraday liquidity platform based on integrated, real-time data.
This presentation will survey and discuss various quantitative considerations in liquidity risk for a financial institution. This includes the concept of liquidity-at-risk (LaR) as a determinant of buffers, as well as how one defines and quantifies such buffers. We will also examine issues such as limit-related input for liquidity policy and transfer pricing as an alternative concept. Two stylized models of liquidity risk are presented and analyzed.
Collateral Management and Market Developments - WhitepaperNIIT Technologies
The paper provides a broader view on how technology bridges the gap and also enumerates the best practices that financial institutions must follow to improve collateral management process.
HomeworkMarketHow it works.Pricing.FAQ.Homework Answers.LoPazSilviapm
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Bank Case Assignment
Ratche93
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CaseRequirements.pdf
Home>Business & Finance homework help>Bank Case Assignment
What is this Project’s Objective?
This project is designed to improve your ability to analyze a particular bank's performance. The
emphasis should be to explore your bank from a regulator’s point of view. In that respect you
should address the six CAMELS components and try to identify any "red flags" that could indicate
potential problems in your bank. The Excel file under the name of “Bank Financial Analysis”
should be used to capture the financial data for your bank and to show the associated financial
ratios. You should be able to find all your data in your bank’s Uniform Bank Performance Report
(UBPR) which is available at www.ffiec.gov. Your written report should be no less than 5 pages
long (typed, double-spaced) not including the Excel worksheet. The six CAMELS components
are: Capital adequacy; Asset quality; Management quality; Earnings record; Liquidity position;
and Sensitivity to market risk. Following is a more detailed listing of the items that you need to
address:
A. Liquidity
Consider your bank’s Uniform Bank Performance Report (UBPR) and provide an overview of your
bank’s liquidity by reviewing the following areas:
1. Liquidity and Funding Ratios especially the Net Non-Core Funding Dependence
and Loan to Assets Ratios – The first ratio measures the degree to which the bank is
funding longer-term assets (loans, securities that mature in more than one year, etc.) with
non-core funding. Non-core funding includes funding that can be very sensitive to
changes in interest rates such as brokered deposits, CDs greater than $100,000, and
borrowed money. Higher ratios reflect a reliance on funding sources that may not be
available in times of financial stress or adverse changes in market conditions. What are
the trends in these ratios? How do they compare to the peer?
2. The availability of liquid assets readily convertible to cash without undue loss-
Consider Federal funds sold, available for sale securities, loans for sale, etc.
3. Core deposit/asset growth - Are core deposits capable of funding anticipated asset
growth?
4. Diversification of funding sources - A bank with strong liquidity has a strong core
deposit base, established borrowings lines, and procedures in place for acquiring
internet-based or other forms of emergency borrowing.
5. External Forces - Economic conditions, competition, marketing efforts, etc. ...
If you are looking for a pi coin investor. Then look no further because I have the right one he is a pi vendor (he buy and resell to whales in China). I met him on a crypto conference and ever since I and my friends have sold more than 10k pi coins to him And he bought all and still want more. I will drop his telegram handle below just send him a message.
@Pi_vendor_247
how to sell pi coins in South Korea profitably.DOT TECH
Yes. You can sell your pi network coins in South Korea or any other country, by finding a verified pi merchant
What is a verified pi merchant?
Since pi network is not launched yet on any exchange, the only way you can sell pi coins is by selling to a verified pi merchant, and this is because pi network is not launched yet on any exchange and no pre-sale or ico offerings Is done on pi.
Since there is no pre-sale, the only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners. So a pi merchant facilitates these transactions by acting as a bridge for both transactions.
How can i find a pi vendor/merchant?
Well for those who haven't traded with a pi merchant or who don't already have one. I will leave the telegram id of my personal pi merchant who i trade pi with.
Tele gram: @Pi_vendor_247
#pi #sell #nigeria #pinetwork #picoins #sellpi #Nigerian #tradepi #pinetworkcoins #sellmypi
Poonawalla Fincorp and IndusInd Bank Introduce New Co-Branded Credit Cardnickysharmasucks
The unveiling of the IndusInd Bank Poonawalla Fincorp eLITE RuPay Platinum Credit Card marks a notable milestone in the Indian financial landscape, showcasing a successful partnership between two leading institutions, Poonawalla Fincorp and IndusInd Bank. This co-branded credit card not only offers users a plethora of benefits but also reflects a commitment to innovation and adaptation. With a focus on providing value-driven and customer-centric solutions, this launch represents more than just a new product—it signifies a step towards redefining the banking experience for millions. Promising convenience, rewards, and a touch of luxury in everyday financial transactions, this collaboration aims to cater to the evolving needs of customers and set new standards in the industry.
what is the future of Pi Network currency.DOT TECH
The future of the Pi cryptocurrency is uncertain, and its success will depend on several factors. Pi is a relatively new cryptocurrency that aims to be user-friendly and accessible to a wide audience. Here are a few key considerations for its future:
Message: @Pi_vendor_247 on telegram if u want to sell PI COINS.
1. Mainnet Launch: As of my last knowledge update in January 2022, Pi was still in the testnet phase. Its success will depend on a successful transition to a mainnet, where actual transactions can take place.
2. User Adoption: Pi's success will be closely tied to user adoption. The more users who join the network and actively participate, the stronger the ecosystem can become.
3. Utility and Use Cases: For a cryptocurrency to thrive, it must offer utility and practical use cases. The Pi team has talked about various applications, including peer-to-peer transactions, smart contracts, and more. The development and implementation of these features will be essential.
4. Regulatory Environment: The regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies is evolving globally. How Pi navigates and complies with regulations in various jurisdictions will significantly impact its future.
5. Technology Development: The Pi network must continue to develop and improve its technology, security, and scalability to compete with established cryptocurrencies.
6. Community Engagement: The Pi community plays a critical role in its future. Engaged users can help build trust and grow the network.
7. Monetization and Sustainability: The Pi team's monetization strategy, such as fees, partnerships, or other revenue sources, will affect its long-term sustainability.
It's essential to approach Pi or any new cryptocurrency with caution and conduct due diligence. Cryptocurrency investments involve risks, and potential rewards can be uncertain. The success and future of Pi will depend on the collective efforts of its team, community, and the broader cryptocurrency market dynamics. It's advisable to stay updated on Pi's development and follow any updates from the official Pi Network website or announcements from the team.
What website can I sell pi coins securely.DOT TECH
Currently there are no website or exchange that allow buying or selling of pi coins..
But you can still easily sell pi coins, by reselling it to exchanges/crypto whales interested in holding thousands of pi coins before the mainnet launch.
Who is a pi merchant?
A pi merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell to these crypto whales and holders of pi..
This is because pi network is not doing any pre-sale. The only way exchanges can get pi is by buying from miners and pi merchants stands in between the miners and the exchanges.
How can I sell my pi coins?
Selling pi coins is really easy, but first you need to migrate to mainnet wallet before you can do that. I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi merchant to trade with.
Tele-gram.
@Pi_vendor_247
Resume
• Real GDP growth slowed down due to problems with access to electricity caused by the destruction of manoeuvrable electricity generation by Russian drones and missiles.
• Exports and imports continued growing due to better logistics through the Ukrainian sea corridor and road. Polish farmers and drivers stopped blocking borders at the end of April.
• In April, both the Tax and Customs Services over-executed the revenue plan. Moreover, the NBU transferred twice the planned profit to the budget.
• The European side approved the Ukraine Plan, which the government adopted to determine indicators for the Ukraine Facility. That approval will allow Ukraine to receive a EUR 1.9 bn loan from the EU in May. At the same time, the EU provided Ukraine with a EUR 1.5 bn loan in April, as the government fulfilled five indicators under the Ukraine Plan.
• The USA has finally approved an aid package for Ukraine, which includes USD 7.8 bn of budget support; however, the conditions and timing of the assistance are still unknown.
• As in March, annual consumer inflation amounted to 3.2% yoy in April.
• At the April monetary policy meeting, the NBU again reduced the key policy rate from 14.5% to 13.5% per annum.
• Over the past four weeks, the hryvnia exchange rate has stabilized in the UAH 39-40 per USD range.
Turin Startup Ecosystem 2024 - Ricerca sulle Startup e il Sistema dell'Innov...Quotidiano Piemontese
Turin Startup Ecosystem 2024
Una ricerca de il Club degli Investitori, in collaborazione con ToTeM Torino Tech Map e con il supporto della ESCP Business School e di Growth Capital
how to sell pi coins effectively (from 50 - 100k pi)DOT TECH
Anywhere in the world, including Africa, America, and Europe, you can sell Pi Network Coins online and receive cash through online payment options.
Pi has not yet been launched on any exchange because we are currently using the confined Mainnet. The planned launch date for Pi is June 28, 2026.
Reselling to investors who want to hold until the mainnet launch in 2026 is currently the sole way to sell.
Consequently, right now. All you need to do is select the right pi network provider.
Who is a pi merchant?
An individual who buys coins from miners on the pi network and resells them to investors hoping to hang onto them until the mainnet is launched is known as a pi merchant.
debuts.
I'll provide you the Telegram username
@Pi_vendor_247
US Economic Outlook - Being Decided - M Capital Group August 2021.pdfpchutichetpong
The U.S. economy is continuing its impressive recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic and not slowing down despite re-occurring bumps. The U.S. savings rate reached its highest ever recorded level at 34% in April 2020 and Americans seem ready to spend. The sectors that had been hurt the most by the pandemic specifically reduced consumer spending, like retail, leisure, hospitality, and travel, are now experiencing massive growth in revenue and job openings.
Could this growth lead to a “Roaring Twenties”? As quickly as the U.S. economy contracted, experiencing a 9.1% drop in economic output relative to the business cycle in Q2 2020, the largest in recorded history, it has rebounded beyond expectations. This surprising growth seems to be fueled by the U.S. government’s aggressive fiscal and monetary policies, and an increase in consumer spending as mobility restrictions are lifted. Unemployment rates between June 2020 and June 2021 decreased by 5.2%, while the demand for labor is increasing, coupled with increasing wages to incentivize Americans to rejoin the labor force. Schools and businesses are expected to fully reopen soon. In parallel, vaccination rates across the country and the world continue to rise, with full vaccination rates of 50% and 14.8% respectively.
However, it is not completely smooth sailing from here. According to M Capital Group, the main risks that threaten the continued growth of the U.S. economy are inflation, unsettled trade relations, and another wave of Covid-19 mutations that could shut down the world again. Have we learned from the past year of COVID-19 and adapted our economy accordingly?
“In order for the U.S. economy to continue growing, whether there is another wave or not, the U.S. needs to focus on diversifying supply chains, supporting business investment, and maintaining consumer spending,” says Grace Feeley, a research analyst at M Capital Group.
While the economic indicators are positive, the risks are coming closer to manifesting and threatening such growth. The new variants spreading throughout the world, Delta, Lambda, and Gamma, are vaccine-resistant and muddy the predictions made about the economy and health of the country. These variants bring back the feeling of uncertainty that has wreaked havoc not only on the stock market but the mindset of people around the world. MCG provides unique insight on how to mitigate these risks to possibly ensure a bright economic future.
What price will pi network be listed on exchangesDOT TECH
The rate at which pi will be listed is practically unknown. But due to speculations surrounding it the predicted rate is tends to be from 30$ — 50$.
So if you are interested in selling your pi network coins at a high rate tho. Or you can't wait till the mainnet launch in 2026. You can easily trade your pi coins with a merchant.
A merchant is someone who buys pi coins from miners and resell them to Investors looking forward to hold massive quantities till mainnet launch.
I will leave the telegram contact of my personal pi vendor to trade with.
@Pi_vendor_247
The European Unemployment Puzzle: implications from population agingGRAPE
We study the link between the evolving age structure of the working population and unemployment. We build a large new Keynesian OLG model with a realistic age structure, labor market frictions, sticky prices, and aggregate shocks. Once calibrated to the European economy, we quantify the extent to which demographic changes over the last three decades have contributed to the decline of the unemployment rate. Our findings yield important implications for the future evolution of unemployment given the anticipated further aging of the working population in Europe. We also quantify the implications for optimal monetary policy: lowering inflation volatility becomes less costly in terms of GDP and unemployment volatility, which hints that optimal monetary policy may be more hawkish in an aging society. Finally, our results also propose a partial reversal of the European-US unemployment puzzle due to the fact that the share of young workers is expected to remain robust in the US.
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1. ISSUE 2
Page 1
The Cash Flow View
Supply of money can be said to be the vital life line of an economy. It is the enabler of production,
movement and consumption of goods & services that define the economy. The banking system, which is
a core component of a country’s economy, is essentially in the middle of all such monetary cash flows. In
fact, a bank can be viewed precisely as a conduit that enables the cash flows of an economy. For an entity,
the stock of all cash flows accumulated over time is represented by the balance sheet statement, and the
net incremental cash inflows during the year are represented by the income statement. However, it is the
cash flow statement that gives a complete view of nature of activities and all operations of the entity.
Adopting a cash flow view of its assets and liabilities enables a bank to accurately and dynamically
forecast its balance sheet and income as it is easier to analyse how various risks impact and modify cash
flows. The cash flow view therefore gives a clearer picture of a bank’s current state, the risks it faces and
its long term outlook as opposed to a stock view. Hence, it is of utmost importance to understand precisely
thenatureandthemechanismsthathelptomanagethesecashflows.
Key Characteristics of Cash Flows
There are three parameters which primarily define a cash flow i.e.Amount, Tenor and Currency. Deriving
from these three parameters and the market expectations are two key characteristics that define the
riskiness and therefore the value of cash flows namely Time value and Liquidity. This assessment of
riskinessexcludestheidiosyncraticcreditriskoftheborrowerassociatedwiththecashflows.
Understanding cash flow behavior: The key to
managing bank liquidity and product pricing
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Time Value:Time value of money measures the change in real value of the cash deployed due to economic
inflationandtheexpectedgeneralmarketrisk.Thisisquantifiedthroughtheinterestrateascribedtothecash
flow inferred from the term structure of market interest rate curve. The original cash flow from an issuer to a
borrower is entirely composed of what is called the Principal amount, while the return cash flow from the
borrower typically includes an interest component that represents the time value of the cash. If the borrower
wantsasingleunchangedinterestratefortheentiretenor,theinterestrateispickedfromthemarketrateterm
structure corresponding to the full tenor of the cash flow. However, if the borrower agrees to change the
interest rate in line with the market expectations, then the frequency of rate change will be used as the tenor
for picking the rate from the term structure. The idea is to ensure that, at a minimum, the real value of the
money is retained throughout the tenor. The current term structure of interest rates may also price-in the
impact of any expected near term market events and consequently, both real and expected movements in
interestrateshavethetendencytochangethecashflowsintheeconomyandinthebankingsystem.Asrate
expectations change and the term structure evolves, borrowers may want to refinance their principal to take
advantage of any favourable rate movements. Interest rate risk behavioural analyses attempt to assess the
sensitivityofbothprincipalandinterestcashflowstomarketinterestratemovements.
Liquidity: The value of cash can also be derived based on the existing supply of money in the market for
the selected tenor. Some tenors may have excess demand while some tenor may have excess supply.
For a bank, managing the cash inflows, outflows and the mismatch between them is a critical component
of its daily activity and its inability to do so even for a short duration of time could potentially lead to bank
failure. There are two prime sources of liquidity risk or illiquidity for a bank, one from the market and
another from its own funding profile and term structure mismatches. On the asset side, the ease with
which the bank can liquefy its stock of assets for cash without incurring significant haircuts or losses is
called Market liquidity. On the liability side, the ease with which the bank can raise new funds from its
customers either to repay other maturing deposits (including account balance run-offs) or to issue new
financings is known as funding liquidity. The stability of the deposit base of the bank helps in minimizing
the need to rollover the deposits and thereby helps with the liquidity of the bank. Hence, it is important to
assess the liquidity characteristics of both assets and liabilities and their sensitivity to changes in market
liquidity.Theseaspectsarecoveredbyliquiditybehaviouralmodelling.
It goes without saying that the behaviour of cash flows and their slotting will be different when looked
through a rate perspective as compared to a liquidity perspective. So it becomes important to not only
understand the behaviour but also be able to attribute the behaviour separately to rate movements and
liquidity movements. Once a relationship between the cash flow behaviour and various rate and liquidity
factors are analysed and understood, it would be possible to forecast run-offs and future balances under
different combinations of rate and liquidity scenarios. In addition to interest rate movements and liquidity
considerations, there may be numerous other reasons ranging from systemic to individual that may alter
the nature of cash flows from their contractual terms.An understanding of the real behaviour of cash flows
is required to not only effectively manage the liquidity and interest income of a bank but also allow a more
realisticcashflowforecastingbasisforplanningandstrategicpurposes.
Balance Sheet Categories
Banks' balance sheets consist of a wide variety of financial and non-financial categories and products
that differ widely in both contractual and behavioural terms. There are quite a few products which do
not have any contractually defined cash flows while the cash flows of many other products deviate
materially from their contractual terms. Modelling of such non-deterministic cash flows will require
drafting of various statistical and quantitative methodologies. An overview of various balance sheet
products for which the cash flows are largely non-deterministic i.e. they either do not have any
contractual maturity or they differ materially from contractual terms is described below.
3. Page 3Contact: IRRBB.Insights@aptivaa.com | Website: www.aptivaa.com | www.linkedin.com/company/aptivaa
Category Description Cash Flow Profile
Retail loans Retail loans tend to see repayments
earlier than expected schedule due to
various market and customer related
factors. For fixed rate loans, and to a
smaller extent for floating rate loans,
the rate environment has a control
effect on the level of prepayments.
This behaviour has implications from
both rate and liquidity perspectives.
The cash flow chart on the right shows
a simple repayment schedule of a
retail loan. The repayments are
always higher than the contractual
schedule and repayments are highest
under rate down scenario
Assets Related
Corporate
working capital
facilities
Revolving facilities are typically
approved on an annual basis and the
facilities tend to get rolled over
continuously and become evergreen.
Such products need to be assessed
for core portion that will remain
outstanding during the shorter tenors.
This behavioural analysis is largely
required from a liquidity perspective.
However, such analysis helps with
pricing decisions as well. Infographic
shows historical limit utilisation and
repayments done by the customer
based on which a core portion and the
tenor it is expected to be on books is
estimated
Credit cards Limit usage and repayment behaviour
needs to analysed to understand cash
flow of credit cards. Not all customers
repay the entire outstanding during
every billing cycle. Some typically
revolve the balances and only repay
the minimum amount due. First, a
Transactor-Revolver analysis is
needed to assess repayment
behaviour of customer and then a limit
usage analysis is needed to
understand balance build-up . This
analysis is largely from a liquidity
perspective as credit card pricing is
policy driven and is not changed
often. Infographic shows balance
build-up and minimum repayments
made by a “revolver” type customer
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
1 2 3 4 5
Retail Loan Cash Flows
RateDN Base
RateUP Contractual
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
Only minimum repayments
Max limit usage
Maximum Card Limit
Balance buildup
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
-5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3
Historical withdrawals
Future withdrawals
& tenors
Maximum Limit
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Liabilities Related
Category Description Cash Flow Profile
Non Maturing
Deposits
(NMD)
Non maturing deposits need to be
assessed for vintage balance run-off
b e h a v i o u r f r o m a l i q u i d i t y
perspective first to identify the stable
portion. Then the sensitivity of the
run-offs to rate movements needs to
be assessed to identify core portion.
In addition, a rate pass through
analysis needs to be performed to
understand how closely the offer
rates on these products have
tracked the market. For non-interest
bearing accounts a volume-rate
analysis needs to be performed to
understand rate sensitivity.
Time deposits Retail term deposits need to be
assessed for early termination and
rollover behaviour to understand
behavioural maturities. Similar to
loans, rate environment plays a
control role that drives early
terminations. While both early
terminations and rollovers have
liquidity implications, only early
terminations have rate implications
as rollovers typically get priced at
prevailing rates. Infographic shows
that in shorter tenors, rollovers
dominate early terminations and
averagetenorsarealwaysextended.
However in longer tenors, early
terminations dominate rollovers and
tenors are shortened. Tenors further
shorten in upward rate environment.
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
NMD Balance run-off
Retail Savings Retail Current
Corporate Savings Corporate Current
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
TD 3M TD 12M TD 3Y
TD Tenor Modifications
Orig Tenor Beh Tenor RateUP RateDN
Central Bank Reserve Requirements:
Central Banks typically require a portion of deposits taken by banks to be held with them to ensure
that banks maintain a minimum level of liquidity to withstand any deposit run-offs scenarios. These
reserves are linked to the deposit balances and central banks monitor the balances on a weekly or a
more frequent basis. Banks do not have the option to utilize these balances to fulfil their liquidity
requirements at all times and will have to be limited to the proportion of expected deposit run-offs.
So central bank reserves will also need to be slotted in to latter buckets as per deposit run-off
schedule. This analysis is largely from a liquidity perspective and has negligible rate implications as
these accounts are not interest bearing.
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Off-balance Sheet
Category Description
Trade related Products typically include Letters of Credit (LCs) and Letters of Guarantee (LGs).
These products have liquidity implications as the bank make have to make
payments on behalf of the customer when the LCs devolve or the LGs get called.
Credit
commitments
Banks offer its customers with credit liens which can be drawn at any time for a
limited period of time.These may or may not be revocable.
Assumptions regarding utilisation and time will need to be made in cases where
the drawdown schedule is not known.
In this blog we shall be looking at Non-maturing deposits which form the major part of non-deterministic
cashflowsbothfromratesensitivityperspectiveand fromliquidityperspectiveforabank.
Liquidity
facilities
Banks often offer fee based liquidity facilities to corporates. They are mostly
revocable in nature but do have liquidity implications.
Non-maturing Deposits (NMDs)
NMDs comprise of various types of products including demand deposits, checking accounts, saving
accounts, custody accounts, cash management accounts, margin accounts etc. They form a major
chunk of deposit base of banks and are also the biggest source of non-deterministic cash flows for
banks. The term "non-maturing" arises due to the fact that these accounts do not have a contractual
maturity date and they can only be understood from a cash flow perspective. NMDs typically are
considered stable over a long period of time and have relatively lower interest rates compared to term
deposits. Hence, understanding the cash flows of NMDs and the impact that interest rates and market
liquidity have on these cash flows is critical to managing the cost of funds and liquidity of a bank. Before
applying any modelling techniques to analyse the deposit run-off behaviour, it is important to
understand that NMDs are highly heterogeneous in terms of products, types of customers, business
models and other market factors that drive their behaviour and therefore a one-size-fits-all approach
cannot be used for their analysis. Hence it is important to look at the composition of these balances
and the key parameters that drives their behaviour. That being said, it is not necessary to look at
balance movements at an individual account level as certain cohorts of accounts behave in a similar
way and there is a diversification effect that transforms short and unsteady individual accounts into
longer tenor stable deposits.
At a high level, there are two primary optionalities that drive the volumes of NMDs. While customers
have the option to withdraw balances as per their requirements, banks have the option to adjust
interest rates on the deposit balances. And market rate and liquidity environment plays a key role in
exercise of options by either party. Hence, modelling of NMDs requires an understanding of the
evolution of the interplay between these two options driven by changes in market environment. To
understand the first option, i.e. the option of the depositor to withdraw funds, lets first look at some key
characteristics that drive the customer behaviour.
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Factors Driving Cash Flow Behaviour
Depositor Characteristics
Product Type/End use: Banks offer various deposit products to address different cash management
and savings needs of customers. Current accounts are typically aimed at addressing the regular
transactional and payment processing needs of customers. They do not typically pay any interest or
pay only a marginal rate as the cash in these accounts is expected to be transitory. There are other
similar deposit categories like call accounts or margin accounts which are transactional in nature and
typically do not pay any interest. On the other hand, banks offer Savings accounts for customer to park
their savings and these accounts pay a small rate that covers for inflationary devaluation. Balances in
savings accounts are typically more stable and have longer duration. It makes obvious sense to look at
product wise balance run-offs separately for modelling purposes as their typical behaviour and rate
sensitivities are significantly different.
Transactional Accounts: Lot of retail accounts despite their product type are used for regular utility
payments or have salary credits and other standing instructions. These accounts are considered as
transactional as customers use these account for payment purposes. Similarly, wholesale accounts
which are attached to various cash management products offered by the bank are considered
transactional. It is important to assess the transactional nature of accounts as these types of accounts
are more likely to be stable over the long term despite having short term volatility in balances and are
less rate sensitive. From a rate sensitivity perspective, these accounts need to be looked at
separately.
Business or Customer Segment: The other most common classification of deposits uses the customer
segmentation. Banking business typically is classified into retail and wholesale business based on the
customer needs and characteristics. While retail side targets individuals and has larger number of
customers with small balances and is driven by microeconomic factors, wholesale targets corporates
and other institutional entities and has smaller customer base with larger balances and is driven by
macroeconomic factors. For banks, retail accounts are more desirable due to increased customer
base and tenor diversification and as they typically tend to be less rate sensitive. Below this business
segmentation, there might be further customer segmentation based on salary level (affluent, general)
or Industry (FI, Govt.) etc. which can be utilized for modelling purposes, if volumes are material.
Size of the Customer Deposit: Big ticket deposits tend to be placed by institutional clients and high net
worth individuals who are more sophisticated and responsive to market-wide and idiosyncratic stress
than regular retail depositors. They can also represent discretionary funds placed for non-
transactional purposes. For these reasons, high value deposits can be subject to higher and faster
outflows in either an idiosyncratic or market-wide stress scenario. To identify high value deposits
banks can use the threshold derived from the local regulatory deposit guarantee amount or the
amount above which the interest rate is negotiated or the deposit is part of top 20 deposit list or
deposits comprising a certain percentage of total deposit base.
Length of relationship: It is accepted knowledge in the market to consider customer balances with
longer history of relationship with the bank to continue to remain with the bank as opposed to recent
balance growth either due to a new product or a new campaign.
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Other customer characteristics like sub-segmentation, residence, significant currency, country of
deposit etc. can be considered for building further cohorts of homogenous portfolios.
BankConsiderations
As stated earlier, banks have the option to adjust the interest rates offered on their deposit products.
Bankscandothisthroughmanywaysasdiscussedbelow.
Interest Bearing vs Non-interest Bearing: Products which are tailored for meeting the cash management
and settlement needs of customers are typically not offered any interest rate. Instead banks issue free of
cost check books and other free of charge quick payment mechanisms. However, in some countries with
excess liquidity, customers place their savings balances in non-interest bearing accounts. It is important
to segregate interest bearing and non-interest bearing accounts as their behaviour will be different from a
rate sensitivity perspective. Non-interest bearing accounts which are not transactional may see decline in
volumes during periods of rising rate environment as other products offer better rates. Even within
interest bearing accounts, there may be pricing differential between products that enable the bank to
achieve certain ideal funding mix and level of balances in each product category.
Managed Rate vs Programed Rate: Banks offer special profit rates or negotiate with customers on the
offer rate for managing special or strategic relationships. Sometimes banks may also offer special
rates for clients who are sophisticated or to retain large ticket deposits in times of tight liquidity.
Managed rate deposits are typically highly rate-driven and have high probability of running off if market
environment changes and therefore these accounts need to be segregated for analysis purpose.
Gap and lag on offered rate with market benchmark: Savings rate paid by banks typically tracks a
market benchmark albeit with a lag and may not match the rate to the full extent. The gap between the
savings rate and the market rate drives the volume behaviour from a rate sensitivity perspective. This
analysis is required to assess the rate pass through offered by the bank. Banks manage the level of the
offer rate depending on the volume sensitivity, competitor pricing and its own cost of funds and interest
rate risk.
Market Factors
The most obvious market factor that drives balances is the market interest rate. Other than rates, the
general economic environment represented by factors like GDP growth, unemployment rates, stock
market performance, other market liquidity indicators also have an impact on the deposit cash flows.
Business cycle induced seasonality may also be observed in the balances.
ModellingApproach
Banks have traditionally employed the Replicating Portfolio approach where the sensitivity of the
deposit base is modelled after an investment portfolio of fixed income securities of various tenors to
estimate the balance run-off profile of interest paying non maturing deposits. As the replicating
portfolio matures, it is reinvested into various tenors based on a fixed reallocation rule until the
composition of the investment portfolio stabilises.Astatistical fitting approach is used to determine the
appropriate composition and reinvestment rule that most closely replicates the cash flows of the
deposit product. An alternative and more effective approach is to use historical data to model balance
run-offs on the deposits and then further analysing the run-off profile as being dependent on various
8. Page 8Contact: IRRBB.Insights@aptivaa.com | Website: www.aptivaa.com | www.linkedin.com/company/aptivaa
product characteristics, customer characteristics and market factors including interest rate
movements and market liquidity indicators. This approach enables the bank to ascribe specific factors
to rate sensitivity and liquidity characteristics separately and therefore would provide more realistic
cash flow forecasts under various rate and liquidity scenarios.
Setting up the Data: For NMD modelling, ideally a ten-year history of data is required to capture a
whole range of cash flow behaviours as it would cover at least two business cycles in most industries.
In terms of the market environment, it would be ideal if the time period covers at least one upward rate
scenario, one downward rate scenario, a medium to severe liquidity squeeze and a period of excess
liquidity. The average cash flow profile from such a data sample would be a representative of the base
line run-off behaviour of the accounts based on which further cohorts can be segregated based on
customer or product characteristics. While looking at the historical data, it is important to use the
monthly average balance data for most accurate modelling purpose as it would avoid any inter-month
volatility. An alternative indicator would be the mid-month balance which would also give a decent
indication as to the balance levels as compared to beginning/end of month balances which may either
be too high as salaries get credited or be too low as expenses are paid for. In addition, data fields
should capture all the product and deposit characteristics defined above so that homogenous pools of
deposits can be created.
Building the Historical Cash Flow Profile: Once the data history is obtained, accounts need to
segregated based on the above mentioned deposit and product parameters based on materiality of
the balances. As a rule of thumb, if a data cohort does not consist of at least 5% of total deposit base
then the parameter that is used for segregation should be ignored. Within each of the cohorts the
primary objective of the balance runoff methodology is to segregate balances based on historical
tranches. Essentially each tranche consists of accounts that were opened in a particular month. So all
the tranches in a cohort are segregated based on the length of customer relationship with the bank.
For each tranche, balance run-offs are calculated over various run-off horizons e.g. 1 month, 3
months, 6 months etc. until a 6year horizon which is the maximum recommended tenor of slotting
NMD cash flows.
Since the objective of the analysis is to understand the run-offs, only negative movements in balances
are considered as any positive percentage represents new volumes. For each run-off horizon, a series
of run-off rates (run-off balance as a percentage of previous balance) will be computed for all the
tranches. A weighted average run-off rate series is created by adding the run-off balances across the
Cohort1
Tranche1
Description
Retail/Interest bearing/Savings/Transactional/Small ticket sized
Jan11
This tranche includes all accounts that were opened during the
month of Jan-11 and belonging to Cohort1 as described above
Avg Bal.
1M Horizon run-offs
3M Horizon run-offs
Jan/11 Feb/11 Mar/11 Apr/11 May/11 Jun/11 Jul/11 Aug/11
11,068 19,600 10,295 13,672 17,425 12,086 18,619 18,181
-2.4%54.1%-30.6%27.5%32.8%-47.5%77.1%
4.3%36.2%17.4%-11.1%23.5%
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tranches. For example, for the monthly horizon run-offs, a series of 119 monthly run-off percentages
will be generated for each cohort. Similar run-off percentages are generated for various other run-off
horizons like 3m and 6m as well. In the end, we are left with a time-series of run-off rates for each
cohort and run-off horizon combination.
Identifying Significant Behavioural Drivers: Once the run-off time series matrix is created, averages of
run-off rates for all the horizons are computed for each cohort, which will give a raw balance decay
profile for the cohort.Asimple average or a weighted average can be used based on the nature of rate
environment prevailing during the historical period. Further, functions like negative exponential or
piece-wise linear functions can be applied to smoothen out the raw decay profile. The smoothened
run-off profiles can be compared for similarity by using certain statistical tests or by using judgement.
Key parameters that result in run-off profiles which are different are retained while the others are
dropped.
Segregating Term Risk vs Rate Risk: From a risk measurement point of view, it is important to
understand the balance run-offs both from a rate and term risk perspective. From term risk
perspective, balances can be said to be stable if they remain with the bank for the longest period of
time. A simple definition like balances staying over a one-year horizon can be used to denote stable
balances. Alternatively, a statistical threshold like a 95% confidence level of the balance retaining
during the next month can be used to define stable balances. While the final smoothened run-off
profile represents the term risk of the NMDs, the cohort wise run-off time series can be used to
understand the behaviour in relation to the rate movements. A suitable market benchmark like a
Treasury rate, interbank offer rates, Retail deposit rate or any other benchmark used by the bank as a
reference for deposit pricing can be used to perform regression with the run-off time series data. A
separate rate benchmark can be used with each run-off horizon related time series to accurately
reflect the pricing basis. For relations which are statistically significant, the beta of the regression can
be used to assess the rate pass through or sensitivity and thereby determine the balances which are
less sensitive to rates i.e. the core portion. The run-off profile in conjunction with the benchmark rate
regression analysis finally segregates balances into three main types by their behaviour. Non-stable
balances which are volatile from a term risk perspective will be slotted into the shortest term bucket for
both liquidity and repricing bucketing. Secondly, stable but non-core balances will be slotted as per
their term run-off profile under liquidity bucketing while they will be slotted in the appropriate repricing
bucketing based on the index with which they are mostly correlated with. Finally, the stable and core
balances will be slotted as per their run-off profile under both bucketing. From a performance
measurement perspective as well, the base rate will be assigned based on the repricing bucketing and
liquidity premium will be assigned based on liquidity bucketing as shown below.
Correlation Reference Rate
Run-off
Component
Term Risk
Treatment
Rate Risk
Treatment
Rate Correlation Component
Short term
Long term
Long term
Medium term
Short term
Slotted as
per run-off
profile
Short term
Long term rates
Medium term rates
Short term rates
Non-correlated
component
Correlated
component
Stable
Volatile
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Modelling Balance Forecasts: From a liquidity and economic value analysis perspective, looking at
balance-runoffs makes sense. However, for planning and forecasting purposes which uses a going-
concern approach, it is required to estimate future balance growth as well. While we have discussed
the balance run-off behaviour of the NMDs, the same data set can be used to build balance growth
forecasts under various scenarios. Instead of using only negative movements in the balances, the
above methodology can be replicated to look at balance growth as influenced by various product and
customer characteristics in addition to their relation with market rates and other macro-economic
variables. Apart from understanding the run-off profiles, it is also important for banks to understand
inter-product cannibalisation. Especially in a rising rate environment balances from deposits which do
not pay interest rate may get transferred to other interest paying deposit products.Aregression based
approach between monthly balance history of each product can be adopted to understand such
linkages. Coupled with the balance movement profiles and product linkage analysis, accurate product
wise balance forecasts can be generated.
Testing the assumptions: It is important to back test the model through either random sampling of
accounts and tracking their run-off or through forecasting latest month balances and comparing it with
actual balances both from rate and liquidity perspectives. Specifically, the model needs to be tested
under stress conditions observable in the data to check if the assumptions still hold. If not, the
assumptions need to be made conservative enough to hold even under stress situations. These stress
tests on assumptions complement the stress tests that are applied on the level of interest rates and
market factors while measuring IRRBB and liquidity ratios. In addition, it is recommended to assess
the sensitivity of the end results to changes in the assumptions.
Conclusion
NMD modelling gives banks a clear understanding on the rate and liquidity profile of their deposit base
and helps accurately measure the rate and liquidity risks associated with the accounts. Using
judgmental run-off estimates or simplistic models can lead to incorrect risk measurement and may
lead the bank to get into loss making hedging positions. From a performance measurement
perspective as well, inappropriate incentives may be given to the wrong products there by driving
balance sheet to suboptimal state. Modelling assumptions thus derived must be used consistently for
calculating NII statement, EVE sensitivity, balance forecasting and performance measurement.
Balance sheet forecasting is a critical aspect of the planning and budgeting function of the bank and
the ability to build accurate cash flow forecasts under various rate and liquidity scenarios not only
enables the bank to set realistic targets but also model future stress scenarios more accurately. Hence
NMD modelling can be a source of value creation and return enhancement for the bank.
11. About
Aptivaa is a vertically focused finance and risk management consulting and analytics firm with
world-class competencies in Credit Risk, Market Risk, Operational Risk, Basel III, IFRS-9,
IRRBB, Risk Analytics, COSO, ALM, Model Risk Management, ICAAP, Stress Testing, Risk
Data and Reporting. Aptivaa has emerged as a leading risk management solutions firm
having served over 100 clients across 22 countries comprising of highly respected names in
the financial services industry.
We can help you through our bouquet of services listed below
Ÿ Review of governance and internal risk management framework for identification,
measurement, and monitoring of interest rate risk on banking book (IRRBB).
Ÿ Review of methodology for EVE and NII sensitivity calculations, updating interest rate
shock and stress scenarios and key underlying assumptions driving the IRRBB analysis.
Ÿ Development of Interest rate risk behavioral models (Core Deposit Analysis and
Prepayment Modeling).
Ÿ Assist in developing balance sheet optimizing strategies and arrive at the right balance
sheet mix.
Ÿ Development of Funds Transfer Pricing (FTP) methodology which can help measure
profitability and economic value-added of each business unit.
Ÿ Development of methodology to assess and monitor Credit Spread Risk on Banking Book
(CSRBB).
Ÿ Agile and off-the-shelf analytical solutions that leverage existing ALM solutions to perform
on the fly risk analytics to enable better decision making.
Ÿ Development of qualitative and quantitative disclosures as required by the regulators.
UAE US UK India| | |
Contact: IRRBB.Insights@aptivaa.com | Website: www.aptivaa.com | www.linkedin.com/company/aptivaa
Feel free to send your IRRBB related queries to:
Sandip Mukherjee
Co-Founder and Principal Consultant
Email: sandip.mukherjee@aptivaa.com
Phone: +91- 98210- 41373