Blackman Et Al Presentation Incidence Fuel Taxes

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This document summarizes a study on the incidence and regressivity of fuel taxes in Central America. It outlines the policy context of addressing air pollution and greenhouse gases through fuel taxes. It describes the study's goals of using household survey data from Costa Rica to calculate average fuel expenditures and the price elasticity of demand. The results found that a 10% fuel tax would increase expenditures the most for higher-income households in the short run. Issues with other country data are noted.

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Fuel Tax Incidence in Central America Francisco Alpizar Allen Blackman Rebecca Osakwe EfD Center for Central America Thomas Sterner EEU University of Gothenburg 2 nd Annual Environment for Development meeting Beijing, November 3-7, 2008

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Average household expenditure on fuel as a percentage of total expenditure, by fuel type and decile

Fuel tax simulation G = expenditure on fuel P = price fuel Q= quantity fuel ε = price elasticity of demand (1) (3) (4) (2) short run ε = -0.24 (Sterner and Dahl 1992) long run ε = -0.80 (Sterner and Dahl 1992) tax (dP/P) = 10%

Change in expenditure on gas+diesel+fuel used in bus transportation as a percent of total expenditure due to a 10% tax, assuming two elasticities for gas+diesel (short-run, long-run) and zero elasticity for fuel used in public transportation, by expenditure decile

Replicating analysis for Nicaragua and Panama using World Bank LSMS data ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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Applied Economics Letters, 2010, 17, 325–328 Are demand elasticities affected by politically determined tax levels? Simultaneous estimates of gasoline demand and price Lennart Flood*, Nizamul Islam and Thomas Sterner Department of Economics, School of Economics and Commercial Law, Göteborg University, Göteborg, Sweden Raising the price of fossil fuels is a key component of any effective policy to deal with climate change. Just how effective such policies are is decided by the price elasticities of demand. Many papers have studied this without recognising that not only is there a demand side response: quantities are decided by the price but also there is a reverse causality: the level of consumption affects the political acceptability of the taxes which are the main component of the final price. Thus prices affect consumption and consumption levels, in turn, have an affect on taxes and thus consumer prices. This article estimates these functions simultaneously to show that there is indeed an effect on the demand elasticity. I. Introduction Global carbon emissions from fossil fuels are around 7 Gtons Carbon per year whereof transport fuels in the OECD account for over 1 Gton. Effective policy instruments to deal with climate change will have their main effect through higher fuel prices. To reach any of the scenarios discussed in for instance the Stern or IPPC reports, very large reductions (50–90%) – and thus large price increases will be needed. The exact extent of the necessary rise in prices to reach any particular target hinges on the long-run demand elasticities for fuel. Such elasticities are also of interest for transport economists and market forecasts. As a result there are few areas that are so well studied particularly after the oil price hikes of the 1970s. The total number of individual studies is several hundred and even the number of surveys is quite large, (Drollas, 1984; Oum, 1989; Dahl and Sterner, 1991a, b; Goodwin, 1992; Hanly et al., 2002; Graham and Gleister, 2002, 2004). While a range of estimates is found, the consensus is that the long-run price elasticity of demand is around �0.8, while the long-run income elasticity is about one. Typically the short-run (one year) elasticities are about a third of the long-run values. Differences between countries are typically moder- ate but there are differences depending on the type of model and data used. Estimates that only build on time series data for one country tend to give somewhat lower elasticities than studies that include cross-section evidence. In a recent article which surveys new developments in the field, Basso and Oum (2006), identify a number of important methodological issues not *Corresponding author. E-mail: [email protected] Applied Economics Letters ISSN 1350–4851 print/ISSN 1466–4291 online � 2010 Taylor & Francis 325 http://www.informaworld.com DOI: 10.1080/13504850701735864 mailto:[email protected] http://www.informaworld.com su.

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Blackman Et Al Presentation Incidence Fuel Taxes

1. Fuel Tax Incidence in Central America Francisco Alpizar Allen Blackman Rebecca Osakwe EfD Center for Central America Thomas Sterner EEU University of Gothenburg 2 nd Annual Environment for Development meeting Beijing, November 3-7, 2008

7. Average household expenditure on fuel as a percentage of total expenditure, by fuel type and decile

8. Fuel tax simulation G = expenditure on fuel P = price fuel Q= quantity fuel ε = price elasticity of demand (1) (3) (4) (2) short run ε = -0.24 (Sterner and Dahl 1992) long run ε = -0.80 (Sterner and Dahl 1992) tax (dP/P) = 10%

9. Change in expenditure on gas+diesel+fuel used in bus transportation as a percent of total expenditure due to a 10% tax, assuming two elasticities for gas+diesel (short-run, long-run) and zero elasticity for fuel used in public transportation, by expenditure decile

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13. THANK YOU

Blackman Et Al Presentation Incidence Fuel Taxes

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