1) Tensions are rising in the Black Sea region as Georgia continues to blockade Abkhazia and its naval commerce, despite Abkhazia declaring independence from Georgia and being recognized by Russia. 2) Georgian President Saakashvili seems intent on provoking a crisis to force NATO involvement against Russia, but the US has made it clear it will not get involved militarily on Georgia's behalf. 3) Other tensions exist as Russia's lease of its Black Sea naval base in Crimea from Ukraine will expire in 2017 and Ukraine wants the base vacated, threatening Russian naval presence in the region.