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What is iran doing in iraq how important is iran in the ground war against isis
1. The RAND Blog
COMMEN TARY
( The I ranPrimer, USI P)
Januar y26,2015
Salvaging Iraq
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by Alireza Nader
What is Iran doing in Iraq? How important is
Iran in the ground war against ISIS?
The Iranian government, particularly the Revolutionary Guards, is playing a huge role in helping
the Iraqi security forces fight the Islamic State, especially in Diyala. The Guards are working
with the Iraqi central government but they are reportedly heavily reliant on Shiite militias with
close ties to Iran. Iran is now arguably the most influential foreign actor in Iraq.
2. Which Iraqi militias is Iran supporting — and
how?
Iran is supporting many different militias. Some of the biggest and most prominent are the Badr
Organization, Asai'b Ahl al Haq (AAH), Kataib Hezbollah, and various Sadrist elements. They
are all Shiite. Certain militias such as the Badr Organization and AAH appear to be taking direct
orders from Tehran. The Sadrists have had tensions with Iran before, so they may not be the
most reliant of the militias.
Where are Iranian forces concentrated? How
many are there? What are they doing exactly?
Iranian forces have tried to keep a low profile in Iraq, so estimating the number of active Iranians
is difficult. But since late 2014, the “martyrdom” of Iranian soldiers and officers has become
more common, as has Iran's publicity about its role. Senior Iranian generals — including General
Qassem Soleimani, the Qods Force commander — are not only advising Iraqi forces and militias,
but also visiting the front lines and allowing photographs near warzones.
Latest photo of #IRGC Quds Force Command. Gen. Qassem Soleimani along with
Kurd #peshmarga #Iran #Iraq pic.twitter.com/e0Uaxmg2LH
— H.Soleimani (@MashreghNews_ir) October 6, 2014
What are the stakes for Iran in Iraq?
Iran does not want the Islamic State or Sunni jihadi and nationalist groups to take over Iraq.
Tehran is particularly concerned that the Shiite-led government in Baghdad could be replaced by
a regime hostile to Iran, as was the case during Saddam Hussein's rule. Iraq's invasion of Iran in
1980 and the subsequent eight-year war, which produced more than 1 million casualties, has
always been a major factor in Tehran's strategic thinking. Many politicians and military
commanders now in power were part of the war generation.
Iraq and Iran share a 910-mile border that is mostly porous. Iraq's territorial integrity is critical
for Iran too. Shortly after ISIS took significant territory in northern Iraq, President Hassan
Rouhani told Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al Abadi that Iran “considers Iraq's security and
stability as its own.”
Iran is also concerned about the safety of Shiite holy sites in Sammara, Najaf, and Karbala. The
rise of the Islamic State presents Iran with the opportunity to demonstrate to the Iraqis, the Arab
world, and the United States that it is an important power in the Middle East and should be
recognized and treated as such. From Tehran's perspective, its intervention could even provide
more leverage on other issues, including the nuclear negotiations. “The world has understood the
reality that the first country to rush to the help of the Iraqi people in the battle against extremism
3. and terror was the Islamic Republic of Iran,” Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said in
December.
Had it not been for #Iran's timely assistance, many of the #Iraqi cities would have fallen to the
hands of these vicious #terrorists.
— Hassan Rouhani (@HassanRouhani) September 26, 2014
How does Iran's role in Iraq today differ from
its earlier activities during the U.S.
intervention?
After the 2003 U.S. invasion, Iran played a prominent but largely behind-the-scenes role in Iraq.
Tehran armed, trained and funded a variety of militias, mostly Shiite but some Sunnis as well.
Iranian-backed militias attacked both U.S. and Iraqi government forces. Iran also reportedly
funded and advised candidates and brokered alliances, although with mixed success.
The dynamics shifted when the U.S. withdrew in 2011. After the Islamic State's sudden seizure
of a large chunk of Iraq in 2014, Iran and the United States actually shared the goal of driving the
Sunni extremists out of Iraq. Tehran's goals were to defeat ISIS, ensure Iraq's territorial integrity,
and maintain Shiite allies in the central government. By early 2015, Iran's role was much more
public than in the past. Tehran actively sought to make sure the world knew it was playing a
major role.
How do Iran's actions and goals in Iraq differ
from the United States?
Both the United States and Iran also share an interest in preserving the Iraqi state. But their goals
are not totally aligned. In neighboring Syria, the Islamic State poses a serious threat to the Assad
regime, which Iran supports and the United States opposes. Tehran has also pursued a sectarian
agenda in its support of Shiite militias, which contributed to greater Sunni dissatisfaction and
complicated the fight against ISIS.
In contrast, Washington has pushed for an inclusive, multi-ethnic and multi-sectarian
government in Baghdad to address Sunnis grievances.
How are U.S. and Iranian actions affecting
each other's strategies?
Secretary of State John Kerry has acknowledged that the net effect of Iranian strikes on ISIS “is
positive.” But U.S. and Iranian officials have denied rumors that they are coordinating their
activities directly, preferring to deal only with Iraqi security forces.
4. Alireza Nader is a senior international policy analyst at the nonprofit, nonpartisan RAND
Corporation.
This commentary originally appeared on The Iran Primer, USIP on January 26, 2015.