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Biding your time
President Joe Biden's first 100 days
and the impact on Singapore's real
estate market
24 May 2021
Andrew Haskins
Executive Director | Research | Asia
US to see strongest real GDP growth this year since 1951
Thank you, Mr President!
2
Colliers
Source for GDP data: Oxford Economics
1951 2021
7.7%
8.0%
Jobs growth to surge, inflation rising
US overheating may now be a risk
Colliers 3
Source: Oxford Economics
Source: Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics
Annual rate for core
CPI inflation now
3.0%,
the highest since June 1996
After brief April setback,
US should see strongest job
creation in history in 2021
US: Job creation
by year since 1946
US: Consumer prices
Source: Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics
Short-term rates now stable, long-term rates rising
Turn in interest rates in sight
4
Colliers
Source: CME, Federal Reserve, Oxford Economics
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Dec.
2016
Dec.
2017
Dec.
2018
Dec.
2019
Dec.
2020
Dec.
2021
Dec.
2022
Dec.
2023
Dec.
2024
Fed's "dot plot" (March 2021)
Oxford Economics (May 2021)
Market Implied (Dec-16-2020)
Market Implied (May 7 2021)
%
Source: CME/Federal Reserve/Oxford Economics
US: Federal funds rate expectations
Source: Bloomberg
0.51%
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Fed Funds rate set to rise by early 2023 Forty year bull market in US bonds may already have ended
US: 10-Year Bond yield (2015-May 2021)
1.66%
US: Federal Funds rate expectations
China alone can pull APAC out of recession
Does the US matter for APAC?
5
Colliers
Proportion of global economy represented by major economic zones (PPP basis)
Source : Oxford Economics
SARS GFC COVID-19
20%
18%
16%
8%
11%
19%
7%
6%
4%
17%
15%
11%
2003 2008 2020
United States China Japan Eurozone
On a PPP basis,
China accounts for
19% of the
ob o omy…
… d fo
47% of the
economy of APAC
Yields and capital values as of Q4 2020
6
Colliers
Singapore offers good value for investors
Logistics
Initial
Yield (%)
Office
Initial
Yield (%)
5.4%
5.1%
3.8%
3.2% 3.1% 3.0%
2.3%
Shanghai Beijing Singapore Tokyo Melbourne Sydney Hong Kong
SAR
6.0% 5.3%
5.1%
4.0%
3.8% 3.7%
3.3%
Singapore Shanghai Beijing Melbourne Tokyo Sydney Hong Kong
SAR
Capital Value per sq metre
(prime grade offices in CBDs)
0 20,000 40,000 60,000
NY Manhattan
Sydney CBD
Singapore CBD
LDN West End
TKY Marunouchi
HK Central
Note. Yields are calculated using net effective rent.
Source: Colliers
Summary of prime office rents in key cities
(USD, Q4 2020)
Rents are rising for occupiers…
Colliers 7
Source: Colliers
Sydney
CBD
$525
Melbourne
CBD
$1,270
Tokyo Hong Kong
SAR
$1,039
Singapore
$935
Beijing
$922
Shanghai
$353
$611
Rents shown are net effective rents on an NFA basis per sq metre per year.
Rents for Tokyo are for the five central wards.
Estimated average
prime rent growth
p.a. over 2020-2025
Tokyo Singapore
-4.0%
>3.0%
11.2
9.8 10.0 9.9
8.8 8.7
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Raffles
Place/New
Downtown
(Premium)
Raffles
Place/New
Downtown
Shenton
Way/Tanjong
Pagar
City Hall Beach
Road/Bugis
Orchard
Vacancy Rent
Source: Colliers
Vacancy
(%)
Rents
(SGD/sq ft NLA/ month)
Singapore: Q1 2021 Grade A Office vacancy and rents
Source: Colliers
Singapore rents and vacancy
Singapore accounts for 46% of Asia regional HQs (59% for tech MNCs)
Real Estate Advisory Services for Occupiers 8
…but Singapore is still a location of choice
Orchard Road
Beach Road/
Bugis
Raffles Place/
New Downtown
City Hall
Shenton Way/
Tanjong Pagar
Plus Apple, Google,
IBM, Cisco, SAP,
Oracle, Lenovo,
So y…
outside the CBD
Strengths of Singapore
• 50% of wo d’ pop o w h
7 hour flight
• 640mn people in SE Asia with 50%
classified as middle-class by 2030
• Among top 5 cities globally for
competitiveness and innovation
• Has implemented free trade and
economic partnership agreements
with countries covering
>60% of global GDP
Hyderabad
Chennai
Kuala Lumpur
Hanoi
Tokyo
Beijing
Chengdu Shanghai
Manila
Singapore
Guangzhou
Taipei
Mumbai
Delhi NCR
Seoul
Hong Kong
Shenzhen
Bangkok
Sydney
Melbourne
Bengaluru
Ho Chi Minh City
Jakarta
Pune
Cumulative Regional Grade A
Office Leasing Demand
(sq metres)
Colliers 9
15-18%
20-25%
Chinese Technology Occupiers
Asian Technology Occupiers 2020
2.3mn
2021
6.5mn
2022
11.4mn
2023
16.6mn
2024
21.6mn
2025
26.4mn
Technology sector to drive APAC office leasing demand over next five years
Singapore one of APAC’s top four tech centres
Source: Colliers
Colliers 10
37%
Hanoi
47%
Manila
56%
Jakarta
100%
Singapore
51%
Bangkok
77%
Malaysia
Source: The Future of FinTech in South East Asia, Finch Capital, MDI Ventures, dealroom.co
% of urban
population connected
Capital city
Expanding internet use in SE Asia one of many factors driving demand
Fintech a key opportunity for Singapore
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Potential
300,000 to 500,000 sq ft
new office demand
Source: PwC, Colliers
570mn people and 360mn internet users in six Southeast Asia Countries
22mn people joining the mobile age every year
Sustainability
Colliers 11
Timing of Countries’ Net Zero Emissions Targets
Source: World Resources Institute
China under President Xi has pledged
to achieve net zero emissions by 2060
Under Biden, the US will rejoin the
Paris climate accord. This sets 2050
as a deadline for the US to achieve
net zero greenhouse gas emissions
Owners and occupiers to focus on sustainability across APAC
Under the Singapore
Green Building Masterplan,
Singapore aims to achieve:
1) 80% of buildings to be
green by 2030
2) 80% of new developments
by GFA to be Super Low
Energy (SLE) buildings
from 2030
3) 80% improvement in
energy efficiency for best-
in-class green buildings
by 2030
About Colliers
Colliers (NASDAQ, TSX: CIGI) is a leading diversified professional services and investment management company. With operations in 67 countries, our more than 15,000 enterprising
professionals work collaboratively to provide expert advice to real estate occupiers, owners and investors. For more than 25 years, our experienced leadership with significant insider
ownership has delivered compound annual investment returns of almost 20% for shareholders. With annualized revenues of $3.0 billion ($3.3 billion including affiliates) and $40 billion
of assets under management, we maximize the potential of property and accelerate the success of our clients and our people. Learn more at corporate.colliers.com, Twitter @Colliers
or LinkedIn.
Legal Disclaimer
This document has been prepared by Colliers for advertising and general information only. Colliers makes no guarantees, representations or warranties of any kind, expressed or
implied, regarding the information including, but not limited to, warranties of content, accuracy and reliability. Any interested party should undertake their own inquiries as to the
accuracy of the information. Colliers excludes unequivocally all inferred or implied terms, conditions and warranties arising out of this document and excludes all liability for loss and
damages arising there from. This publication is the copyrighted property of Colliers and /or its licensor(s). © 2021. All rights reserved. This communication is not intended to cause or
induce breach of an existing listing agreement.
Primary Authors:
Andrew Haskins
Executive Director | Research | Asia
+852 2822 0511
Andrew.Haskins@colliers.com
Rakesh Kunhiraman
Head of Occupier Research |
Research | Asia
+65 6531 8569
Rakesh.Kunhiraman@colliers.com
Nicholas Wilson
Head of Investor & Developer Research |
Research | Asia
+65 6531 8568
Nicholas.Wilson@colliers.com
Nancy Wong
Manager | Research| Asia
+852 2822 0500
Nancy.Y.Wong@colliers.com
Juliana Law
Analyst | Research| Asia
+852 2822 0583
Juliana.Law@colliers.com

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Biding your time: President Joe Biden's first 100 days and the impact on Singapore's real estate market

  • 1. Biding your time President Joe Biden's first 100 days and the impact on Singapore's real estate market 24 May 2021 Andrew Haskins Executive Director | Research | Asia
  • 2. US to see strongest real GDP growth this year since 1951 Thank you, Mr President! 2 Colliers Source for GDP data: Oxford Economics 1951 2021 7.7% 8.0%
  • 3. Jobs growth to surge, inflation rising US overheating may now be a risk Colliers 3 Source: Oxford Economics Source: Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics Annual rate for core CPI inflation now 3.0%, the highest since June 1996 After brief April setback, US should see strongest job creation in history in 2021 US: Job creation by year since 1946 US: Consumer prices Source: Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics
  • 4. Short-term rates now stable, long-term rates rising Turn in interest rates in sight 4 Colliers Source: CME, Federal Reserve, Oxford Economics 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 Dec. 2016 Dec. 2017 Dec. 2018 Dec. 2019 Dec. 2020 Dec. 2021 Dec. 2022 Dec. 2023 Dec. 2024 Fed's "dot plot" (March 2021) Oxford Economics (May 2021) Market Implied (Dec-16-2020) Market Implied (May 7 2021) % Source: CME/Federal Reserve/Oxford Economics US: Federal funds rate expectations Source: Bloomberg 0.51% 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Fed Funds rate set to rise by early 2023 Forty year bull market in US bonds may already have ended US: 10-Year Bond yield (2015-May 2021) 1.66% US: Federal Funds rate expectations
  • 5. China alone can pull APAC out of recession Does the US matter for APAC? 5 Colliers Proportion of global economy represented by major economic zones (PPP basis) Source : Oxford Economics SARS GFC COVID-19 20% 18% 16% 8% 11% 19% 7% 6% 4% 17% 15% 11% 2003 2008 2020 United States China Japan Eurozone On a PPP basis, China accounts for 19% of the ob o omy… … d fo 47% of the economy of APAC
  • 6. Yields and capital values as of Q4 2020 6 Colliers Singapore offers good value for investors Logistics Initial Yield (%) Office Initial Yield (%) 5.4% 5.1% 3.8% 3.2% 3.1% 3.0% 2.3% Shanghai Beijing Singapore Tokyo Melbourne Sydney Hong Kong SAR 6.0% 5.3% 5.1% 4.0% 3.8% 3.7% 3.3% Singapore Shanghai Beijing Melbourne Tokyo Sydney Hong Kong SAR Capital Value per sq metre (prime grade offices in CBDs) 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 NY Manhattan Sydney CBD Singapore CBD LDN West End TKY Marunouchi HK Central Note. Yields are calculated using net effective rent. Source: Colliers
  • 7. Summary of prime office rents in key cities (USD, Q4 2020) Rents are rising for occupiers… Colliers 7 Source: Colliers Sydney CBD $525 Melbourne CBD $1,270 Tokyo Hong Kong SAR $1,039 Singapore $935 Beijing $922 Shanghai $353 $611 Rents shown are net effective rents on an NFA basis per sq metre per year. Rents for Tokyo are for the five central wards. Estimated average prime rent growth p.a. over 2020-2025 Tokyo Singapore -4.0% >3.0% 11.2 9.8 10.0 9.9 8.8 8.7 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Raffles Place/New Downtown (Premium) Raffles Place/New Downtown Shenton Way/Tanjong Pagar City Hall Beach Road/Bugis Orchard Vacancy Rent Source: Colliers Vacancy (%) Rents (SGD/sq ft NLA/ month) Singapore: Q1 2021 Grade A Office vacancy and rents Source: Colliers Singapore rents and vacancy
  • 8. Singapore accounts for 46% of Asia regional HQs (59% for tech MNCs) Real Estate Advisory Services for Occupiers 8 …but Singapore is still a location of choice Orchard Road Beach Road/ Bugis Raffles Place/ New Downtown City Hall Shenton Way/ Tanjong Pagar Plus Apple, Google, IBM, Cisco, SAP, Oracle, Lenovo, So y… outside the CBD Strengths of Singapore • 50% of wo d’ pop o w h 7 hour flight • 640mn people in SE Asia with 50% classified as middle-class by 2030 • Among top 5 cities globally for competitiveness and innovation • Has implemented free trade and economic partnership agreements with countries covering >60% of global GDP
  • 9. Hyderabad Chennai Kuala Lumpur Hanoi Tokyo Beijing Chengdu Shanghai Manila Singapore Guangzhou Taipei Mumbai Delhi NCR Seoul Hong Kong Shenzhen Bangkok Sydney Melbourne Bengaluru Ho Chi Minh City Jakarta Pune Cumulative Regional Grade A Office Leasing Demand (sq metres) Colliers 9 15-18% 20-25% Chinese Technology Occupiers Asian Technology Occupiers 2020 2.3mn 2021 6.5mn 2022 11.4mn 2023 16.6mn 2024 21.6mn 2025 26.4mn Technology sector to drive APAC office leasing demand over next five years Singapore one of APAC’s top four tech centres Source: Colliers
  • 10. Colliers 10 37% Hanoi 47% Manila 56% Jakarta 100% Singapore 51% Bangkok 77% Malaysia Source: The Future of FinTech in South East Asia, Finch Capital, MDI Ventures, dealroom.co % of urban population connected Capital city Expanding internet use in SE Asia one of many factors driving demand Fintech a key opportunity for Singapore 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Potential 300,000 to 500,000 sq ft new office demand Source: PwC, Colliers 570mn people and 360mn internet users in six Southeast Asia Countries 22mn people joining the mobile age every year
  • 11. Sustainability Colliers 11 Timing of Countries’ Net Zero Emissions Targets Source: World Resources Institute China under President Xi has pledged to achieve net zero emissions by 2060 Under Biden, the US will rejoin the Paris climate accord. This sets 2050 as a deadline for the US to achieve net zero greenhouse gas emissions Owners and occupiers to focus on sustainability across APAC Under the Singapore Green Building Masterplan, Singapore aims to achieve: 1) 80% of buildings to be green by 2030 2) 80% of new developments by GFA to be Super Low Energy (SLE) buildings from 2030 3) 80% improvement in energy efficiency for best- in-class green buildings by 2030
  • 12. About Colliers Colliers (NASDAQ, TSX: CIGI) is a leading diversified professional services and investment management company. With operations in 67 countries, our more than 15,000 enterprising professionals work collaboratively to provide expert advice to real estate occupiers, owners and investors. For more than 25 years, our experienced leadership with significant insider ownership has delivered compound annual investment returns of almost 20% for shareholders. With annualized revenues of $3.0 billion ($3.3 billion including affiliates) and $40 billion of assets under management, we maximize the potential of property and accelerate the success of our clients and our people. Learn more at corporate.colliers.com, Twitter @Colliers or LinkedIn. Legal Disclaimer This document has been prepared by Colliers for advertising and general information only. Colliers makes no guarantees, representations or warranties of any kind, expressed or implied, regarding the information including, but not limited to, warranties of content, accuracy and reliability. Any interested party should undertake their own inquiries as to the accuracy of the information. Colliers excludes unequivocally all inferred or implied terms, conditions and warranties arising out of this document and excludes all liability for loss and damages arising there from. This publication is the copyrighted property of Colliers and /or its licensor(s). © 2021. All rights reserved. This communication is not intended to cause or induce breach of an existing listing agreement. Primary Authors: Andrew Haskins Executive Director | Research | Asia +852 2822 0511 Andrew.Haskins@colliers.com Rakesh Kunhiraman Head of Occupier Research | Research | Asia +65 6531 8569 Rakesh.Kunhiraman@colliers.com Nicholas Wilson Head of Investor & Developer Research | Research | Asia +65 6531 8568 Nicholas.Wilson@colliers.com Nancy Wong Manager | Research| Asia +852 2822 0500 Nancy.Y.Wong@colliers.com Juliana Law Analyst | Research| Asia +852 2822 0583 Juliana.Law@colliers.com