The document discusses Beijing Energy Week 2017 and focuses on accelerating structural changes in the early 21st century. Some of the key changes discussed include the rapid technological changes driven by digitalization and exponential growth, the shift of economic power from West to East, increased urbanization, and the transition to renewable energy sources. The structural changes are disruptive but being driven by several simultaneous forces like digital revolution, rapid Eastward economic shift, and increased climate change awareness requiring an energy transition.

1. Beijing Energy Week
2017
Accelerating structural change in the early 21 st century
https://manuelpinhohomepage.wordpress.com/recent-public-lectures/
Manuel Pinho

2. BEW 2017
• What is BEW
• Focus
• Founders
• Why in Being

3. Illustrating the transformation in China
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-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
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CO2 emissions Energy primary supply Coal consumption

4. Lessons from the G20 meeting: the world order
is changing
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0
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China, People's
Republic of
United States
Euro area -
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US
China
EU
World order: concept held by a region or civilization about the
nature of just arrangements and the distribution of power
applicable to the entire world
Protectionism Climate change

5. Accelerating structural change
The second machine age…and more
– Rapid technological change
– Beyond globalization
– Shift of the economic center of gravity to the East
– Urban world
– Climate awareness, and
– Energy transition.

6. Second machine age
• We are now living a technological revolution based on digital hardware,
software and networks the nature of which is different: it is
– exponential
• Moore´s law: number of transistors in an integrated circuit doubles every 2 years,
• Data storage: doubles every 12 months bits per square inch
• Optical phibre: doubles every 9 months bits per second
– digital ❨the marginal cost of scaling up production is zero) and
– combinatorial ❨for example drones are the result of the combination of
data processing, sensors and digital imaging technologies). Although it
has already produced many changes, its end is not near.

7. Digital revolution
• Nature
– Data processing
– Platforms
– Storage
– Sensors
– Artificial intelligence
– Robots
• Skill intensive
• Economics
– Non rival
– Zero marginal costs

8. The power of exponential growth
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1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
Difference between 20 p.c. and x2
Company Market cap
billion of dollars
1 Apple 628
2 Alphabet 528
3 Microsoft 455
4 Amazon 446
5 Berkshire
Hathaway
418
6 Exxon Mobil 357
7 Johnson and
Johnson
357
8 Facebook 344
9 JPMorgan Chase 341
10 Wells Fargo 323
Airbnb became the largest hotel chain
in the world without owing a single
hotel

9. Beyond globalization
Trade and finance did not recover from the Great
Recession however
Data flows are increasing exponentially and he world is
more connected than ever

10. Shift eastwards of the center of gravity
0
5
10
15
20
25
1980
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China, People's
Republic of
India
Korea, Republic
of
China
India
Japan
Australia
ASEAN
1000 China
1500
Europe
1900 United
States
2020 Asia

11. Urbanization
Emerging 440, 47Other emerging large
cities, 14
Emerging small cities,
13
Developed small cities,
5
600 cities expected to account for 60 p.c. of world GDP growth
Emerging 440 cities projected to account for around 50 p.c. og GDP growth
+ than 200 are in China

12. Climate awareness
0
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Carbon emissions in Asia Pacific
MTCO2
Carbon emissions in Africa MTCO2
Carbon emissions in Middle East
MTCO2
Carbon emissions in Europe &
Eurasia MTCO2
Carbon emissions in S. & Cent.
America MTCO2
Carbon emissions in North America
MTCO2
Carbon emissions in World MTCO2
Emissions are flat for 3
consecutive years
however…this is not
enough
Paris COP 21
Bottom up national contributions
Ratchet mechanism
Cilmate finance
Developing
countries are
the key

13. Energy transition
• Increase in demand based on middle income and developing countries
• Slower growth due to energy efficiency gains
• Abundant resources
• US largest producer of oil and natural gas
• Very rapid increase of low cost variable renewables
• New business models
• Transition costs are unavoidable: example of Germany and China

14. Keys uncertainties
• Electricity storage
• Transport
• Electric mobility
• Driveless cars
• Car sharing
• Car pooling

15. Conclusion
• Accelerating structural change in the early 21st century is disruptive
• Produced by several forces operating at the same time
• Digital revolution
• Rapid adoption of digital technologies
• Exponential growth
• Combination of technologies- devices: data processing, transmission
and storage, artificial intelligence, robots, etc..
• Driven by markets and economics
• Transition will involve costs
• Costs will not impact all companies- countries in the same way
• Adaptation is easier in fast growing countries
• Often accelerating structural change is blamed for the wrong reasons