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A BETTER WAY TO DEVELOP
BUSINESS FORECASTS
0 2
of forecast to PLAN FOR ITS FUTURE
Every business relies on some form
0 3
But most of the times
Sometimes forecasts are accurate
THEY ARE NOT
0 4
But Consistently they are:
TIME
CONSUMING
HARD
TO DEVELOP
RESOURCE
INTENSE
Days, weeks and sometimes
months planning their long
range forecasts
COMPANIES SPEND
0 6
UNFORTUNATELY!!!
No book, class or training course teaches
how to forecast properly
Managers develop their own
forecasting methodologies
AS RESULT
0 8
INCONSISTENTAND NON REPEATABLE
FORECASTS ACROSS THE ORGANIZATION
LEADING TO
0 9
They spend days trying to:
Justify underlying
assumptions
Roll up all their
forecasts
Rationalize the
overall final number
1 0
THIS TAKES AWAYTIME FROM
Actual planning and execution to just developing
revenue numbers
1 1
FORECASTING
DOES NOT NEED TO BE
THIS DIFFICULT
NOT ANYMORE!!
With a logically structured forecasting methodology and
smart quantitative tools, companies can develop more
ACCURATE, REPEATABLE and RELIABLE
forecasts in minutes
?
SHOULD FORECASTS BE
DEVELOPED?
SO HOW!!
1 5
Finance and
Management
Factory
operations
Product
Management
Sales
BUSINESS FORECAST
First, get the right parties at the table
1 2
3
4
1 6
Finance and
Management
Factory
operations
Product
Management
Sales
BUSINESS FORECAST
1
Then get top management’s financial targets and expected
market conditions
1 7
DATA BASED BASELINE REVENUE FORECAST
$300
$250
$200
$150
$100
$50
$0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
82,0%
81,0%
80,0%
79,0%
78,0%
77,0%
76,0%
Actuals Forecast
Use these estimates and
data on historical
performance to develop a
baseline forecast
1 8
Finance +
Management
Factory
operations
Product
Management
Sales
BUSINESS FORECAST
Then utilize sales feedback to account for potential new,
existing or lost business
2
1 9
UTILIZE A SIMPLE SALES PIPELINETOOLTO CAPTURE SALES INPUTS
Part Number Customer Industry Industry
Peak Expected
Annual Volume
Expected Price
($per unit) Probability Status Expected Start
Project
Lifetime
AZ349C-52 Precision Microelectronics Technology / Semiconductors AlphaDigi Life Extension 1,900,00 1,42 High Proposal Jan 2016 3
AZ349C-52 Argo Chemical Industrial Chemicals Argo Fertilizer Plant 234,00 1,42 Medium Proposal Jan 2016 3
AZ349C-52 Otis Appliances Industrial Argo Fertilizer Plant 2 1,234,00 1,72 Medium Samples Jan 2016 3
AZ349C-52 DynaRob Military / Robotics Extended Battlefield Robot - 13,100,00 0,92 High Proposal Jan 2016 3
AZ349C-52 Precision Microelectronics Technology / Semiconductors AlphaDigi Life Extension 19,00,00 1,42 High Proposal Jan 2016 3
AZ349C-52 Precision Microelectronics Technology / Semiconductors AlphaDigi Life Extension 19,00,00 1,42 High Proposal Jan 2016 3
2 0
Calculate total expected revenue of all opportunities in the pipeline
and expected time frame
Total value of revenue
from expected new
opportunities
Expected total
revenue
• Probability of success
• Time into future
• Sales success rate
• Typical product ramp up rate
WEIGHTEDFACTORS
REVENUE CALCULATION
2 1
Finance +
Management
Factory
operations
Product
Management
Sales
BUSINESS FORECAST
Then include product management inputs about new,
upcoming or soon to be obsoleted products
3
2 2
Product
Extension
DeclineMaturityGrowthIntroduction
Sales
Calculate potential revenue from
upcoming new products and
planned obsolete products based
on historical ramp up and down
curves
REVENUE PER PRODUCTLIFECYCLE STAGE
2 3
Finance +
Management
Factory
operations
Product
Management
Sales
BUSINESS FORECAST
Finally, include factory inputs to ensure manufacturing
capacity is capable of supporting the expected total revenue
4
Adjust total revenue based on factory’s
feedback on available capacity to support
upcoming demand
CAPACITY ANALYSIS
IS EASIER SAID THEN DONE
Good comprehensive approach
MULTIPLE EXCEL FILES
Collaboration with
is not the best way
MANAGERS NEED A RELIABLE COLLABORATIVE PLATFORM
to easily and quickly gather inputs from all parties and quantitatively analyze data to
develop an overall forecast
2 7
Finance +
Management
Factory
Product
Management
Sales
KEY STAKEHOLDER INPUTS
1 2
3
4
SMARTDATA ANALYSIS
2 8
EASY INTUITIVE MANAGEMENT DASHBOARD
A single dashboard to develop business forecasts in minutes
SMART DATA ANALYSIS ENGINE
SALES PIPELINE
MANAGER
PRODUCT LIFECYCLE
MANAGER
FACTORY THROUGHPUT
MANAGER
A COMPLETE BUSINESS FORECASTING PLATFORM
2 9
NO MORE CONFUSION
WITH MULTIPLE SPREADSHEETS
AN EASY
WAY FOR ALL KEY STAKEHOLDERS TO COLLABORATE
SINGLE SOURCE
OF TRUSTWORTHY DATA
SMARTDATA ANALYSIS
FOR FACT BASED FORECASTING
SIGNUP TODAY
AIYZO.COM

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Better Way to Develop Business Forecasts

  • 1. A BETTER WAY TO DEVELOP BUSINESS FORECASTS
  • 2. 0 2 of forecast to PLAN FOR ITS FUTURE Every business relies on some form
  • 3. 0 3 But most of the times Sometimes forecasts are accurate THEY ARE NOT
  • 4. 0 4 But Consistently they are: TIME CONSUMING HARD TO DEVELOP RESOURCE INTENSE
  • 5. Days, weeks and sometimes months planning their long range forecasts COMPANIES SPEND
  • 6. 0 6 UNFORTUNATELY!!! No book, class or training course teaches how to forecast properly
  • 7. Managers develop their own forecasting methodologies AS RESULT
  • 8. 0 8 INCONSISTENTAND NON REPEATABLE FORECASTS ACROSS THE ORGANIZATION LEADING TO
  • 9. 0 9 They spend days trying to: Justify underlying assumptions Roll up all their forecasts Rationalize the overall final number
  • 10. 1 0 THIS TAKES AWAYTIME FROM Actual planning and execution to just developing revenue numbers
  • 11. 1 1 FORECASTING DOES NOT NEED TO BE THIS DIFFICULT NOT ANYMORE!!
  • 12. With a logically structured forecasting methodology and smart quantitative tools, companies can develop more ACCURATE, REPEATABLE and RELIABLE forecasts in minutes
  • 13.
  • 15. 1 5 Finance and Management Factory operations Product Management Sales BUSINESS FORECAST First, get the right parties at the table 1 2 3 4
  • 16. 1 6 Finance and Management Factory operations Product Management Sales BUSINESS FORECAST 1 Then get top management’s financial targets and expected market conditions
  • 17. 1 7 DATA BASED BASELINE REVENUE FORECAST $300 $250 $200 $150 $100 $50 $0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 82,0% 81,0% 80,0% 79,0% 78,0% 77,0% 76,0% Actuals Forecast Use these estimates and data on historical performance to develop a baseline forecast
  • 18. 1 8 Finance + Management Factory operations Product Management Sales BUSINESS FORECAST Then utilize sales feedback to account for potential new, existing or lost business 2
  • 19. 1 9 UTILIZE A SIMPLE SALES PIPELINETOOLTO CAPTURE SALES INPUTS Part Number Customer Industry Industry Peak Expected Annual Volume Expected Price ($per unit) Probability Status Expected Start Project Lifetime AZ349C-52 Precision Microelectronics Technology / Semiconductors AlphaDigi Life Extension 1,900,00 1,42 High Proposal Jan 2016 3 AZ349C-52 Argo Chemical Industrial Chemicals Argo Fertilizer Plant 234,00 1,42 Medium Proposal Jan 2016 3 AZ349C-52 Otis Appliances Industrial Argo Fertilizer Plant 2 1,234,00 1,72 Medium Samples Jan 2016 3 AZ349C-52 DynaRob Military / Robotics Extended Battlefield Robot - 13,100,00 0,92 High Proposal Jan 2016 3 AZ349C-52 Precision Microelectronics Technology / Semiconductors AlphaDigi Life Extension 19,00,00 1,42 High Proposal Jan 2016 3 AZ349C-52 Precision Microelectronics Technology / Semiconductors AlphaDigi Life Extension 19,00,00 1,42 High Proposal Jan 2016 3
  • 20. 2 0 Calculate total expected revenue of all opportunities in the pipeline and expected time frame Total value of revenue from expected new opportunities Expected total revenue • Probability of success • Time into future • Sales success rate • Typical product ramp up rate WEIGHTEDFACTORS REVENUE CALCULATION
  • 21. 2 1 Finance + Management Factory operations Product Management Sales BUSINESS FORECAST Then include product management inputs about new, upcoming or soon to be obsoleted products 3
  • 22. 2 2 Product Extension DeclineMaturityGrowthIntroduction Sales Calculate potential revenue from upcoming new products and planned obsolete products based on historical ramp up and down curves REVENUE PER PRODUCTLIFECYCLE STAGE
  • 23. 2 3 Finance + Management Factory operations Product Management Sales BUSINESS FORECAST Finally, include factory inputs to ensure manufacturing capacity is capable of supporting the expected total revenue 4
  • 24. Adjust total revenue based on factory’s feedback on available capacity to support upcoming demand CAPACITY ANALYSIS
  • 25. IS EASIER SAID THEN DONE Good comprehensive approach
  • 26. MULTIPLE EXCEL FILES Collaboration with is not the best way
  • 27. MANAGERS NEED A RELIABLE COLLABORATIVE PLATFORM to easily and quickly gather inputs from all parties and quantitatively analyze data to develop an overall forecast 2 7 Finance + Management Factory Product Management Sales KEY STAKEHOLDER INPUTS 1 2 3 4 SMARTDATA ANALYSIS
  • 28. 2 8 EASY INTUITIVE MANAGEMENT DASHBOARD A single dashboard to develop business forecasts in minutes SMART DATA ANALYSIS ENGINE SALES PIPELINE MANAGER PRODUCT LIFECYCLE MANAGER FACTORY THROUGHPUT MANAGER A COMPLETE BUSINESS FORECASTING PLATFORM
  • 29. 2 9 NO MORE CONFUSION WITH MULTIPLE SPREADSHEETS AN EASY WAY FOR ALL KEY STAKEHOLDERS TO COLLABORATE SINGLE SOURCE OF TRUSTWORTHY DATA SMARTDATA ANALYSIS FOR FACT BASED FORECASTING