ASOK 4

Kauai Community College, Office of Continuing Education Sustainability Series Applied Sustainability on Kaua`i

 David Orr (4:30min) on “The Design Problem” [Riff on Tom Toles cartoon.] [Oct 06]
3:51 – 7:00

 John R. Ehrenfeld (4min) on “Sustainabililty is Something Else” Author of “Sustainability by Design” [Apr 09]
38:00 – 42:10 http/::collegerama.tudelft.nl:mediasite:Viewer:%3Fpeid=ef7d15a28e4e4d93a0262f14486283b7

The Kauaian Institute Ken Stokes kauaian.net


DESIGN PROBLEM



A Lifecycle Assessment of U.S. Household Consumption, Christopher M. Jones, 2005


Dominant model Sustainable model
infinite competitive growth life cycle of the organism

MAXIMUM ENTROPY ZERO ENTROPY

bigger fish swallowing the smaller self-similar fractal structure
laying waste to everything in its path cycles turning within cycles

like a hurricane the secret of sustainability

no closed cycle to hold resources within dynamically closed cycle
or to build up stable organized structures enables stable organized structures
to build up and in a balanced way

from “Dream Farm” by physicist Mae-Wan Ho


ENERGY



MORE HOCKEY STICKS

SOURCE: PLAN B 4.0, Lester Brown, 2009



80% BY 2020?
Cutting CO2 emissions 80 percent by 2020
will take a worldwide mobilization at wartime
speed.

First, investing in energy efficiency will allow
us to keep global energy demand from
increasing.

Then we can cut carbon emissions by one
third by replacing fossil fuels with renewable
energy sources for electricity and heat
production.

A further 14 percent drop comes from
restructuring our transportation systems and
reducing coal and oil use in industry.

Ending net deforestation worldwide can cut
CO2 emissions another 16 percent.

Last, planting trees and managing soils to
sequester carbon can absorb 17 percent of
our current emissions.

None of these initiatives depends on new
technologies. We know what needs to be
done to reduce CO2 emissions 80 percent by
2020.

All that is needed now is leadership.



ENERGY TECH FOOTPRINTS



COST OF ENERGY TECH

Source: RE-AMP study of the Midwestern energy system. This map distills the inter-relationships of the Four Fronts. The systems needs to increase
the stocks in blue and decrease the stocks in red in order to accomplish its goal of reducing GHG 80% by 2030. The blue arrows note positive flows



KAUA`I’S RENEWABLE ENERGY POTENTIAL

SOURCE: Black & Vietch, Renewable Energy Tech Assessment, Mar 05



KAUA`I’S RENEWABLE ENERGY POTENTIAL

SOURCE: Presentations by McKinsey and Booze Hamilton for Hawaii Clean Energy Initiative, 2009



NEED MORE FOSSIL FUEL GENERATION?

GENX

BIOMASS
& HYDRO

SOURCE: KIUC Equity Management Plan, 2009


KAUA`I RENEWABLES COST SCENARIO

NOTE: In 2008, KIUC emissions totaled 322,000 tons of GWP.

SOURCE: Estimates by The Kauaian Institute based on 2008 U.S. cost data.



UTILITIES SYSTEMS ILLUSTRATED



Systems Thinking About Energy



FOOD



Source: National Renewable Energy Lab (NREL), 2008


Source: University of Michigan, Center for Sustainable Systems



Source: 2005 Honolulu Consumer Expenditure Survey
NOTE: The Hawai`i median household spends 37% more than ‘Living Wage’ budget


Source: 2005 Honolulu Consumer Expenditure Survey


Ratio of Actual
to Thrifty Dollars

Source: USDA, Thrifty Food Plan Report 2006
NOTE: HI households spend 17% less than ‘Thrifty’ budget


KAUA`I FOOD SPENDING IN CONTEXT

SOURCE: 2002 Economic Census



”Industrial farming does not have the biodiversity and reciprocity
to hold the energy within and ends up generating a lot of waste and entropy
and depleting the soil. Entropy exported to the environment
will simply mean diminished environmental input.

Anaerobic digestion of livestock and other wastes saves carbon emissions twice over,
by preventing the serious greenhouse gases methane and nitrous oxide from
reaching the atmosphere, and by methane substituting for fossil fuel use
to run vehicles and farm machinery.

The thermodynamics of organisms and sustainable systems tells us not only
why we must move away from the dominant environmental bubble economy,
but especially how we can create a healthier, richer, more equitable and satisfying life
without fossil fuels, and we should start right now."

Mae-Wan Ho
Physicist, Institute for Science in Society
Inventor of the “Zero Emissions Food and Energy (ZEFE) Farm



ZEFE Farms on Kaua`i

Towns average 0.7 acres per person.
ZEFE land requirement = 0.36 acres per person
Kauai needs 116 ZEFE farms of 200 acres each.
Capital investment ~ $250M


THE THREE TRAPS OF COMMODITY SYSTEMS

Resource Depletion Trap:
The Production Growth Drivers lead to increases in Harvest rate. If Harvest
rate is higher than Regeneration rate, then Resource level will decline.
Although many people expect the Cost of acquiring the resource to limit Total
production, this signal is often too weak or too delayed to do so.

Community Decline Trap:
The Production growth drivers push down Price—and a greater Producer-
buyer power differential will drive down Price all the more. Falling price
reduces the Producer’s income (even more so when the Producer-landlord or
supplier power differential is great). Falling income increases the
Consolidation rate of producers, decreasing the Number of producers and
lowering Community well-being indicators. Feedback is missing however, that
might solve the problem. Neither the falling Community well-being nor the
falling Producer’s income affect Capacity.

Environmental Pollution Trap:
The Production growth drivers
push the rate of Waste
generation upwards. Over time,
if the Waste generation rate
surpasses the Purification rate,
the Waste level builds.
However, the connection from
the Waste level to Capacity is
weak or missing in most
commodity systems.

Excerpted from: Commodity System Challenges, April 2003
www.sustainabilityinstitute.org/pubs/SustainableCommoditySys.2.1.pdf


FOOD SYSTEM LEVERAGE

SOURCE: Sustainable Food Lab, “Innovations for Healthy Value Chains, 2008



TRANSPORT



SOURCE: EcoLane, UK Life Cycle Assessment of Vehicle Fuels and Technologies, 2007


ELECTRIC VEHICLES DRIVE CHEAPER

NOTE: American drivers spent $280 billion for gas last year, when the equivalent miles in an EV would have cost $66 billion.
SOURCE: Lester Brown, Plan B, Earth Policy Institute, 2007


BIOFUEL FOOTPRINTS

Source: Natural Logic, The Ecological Footprint of Biofuels, 2008



VEHICLE MILES TRAVELED

SOURCE: KPAA Community Indicators 2008 Update



KAUA`I ENERGY TRENDS

SOURCE: DBEDT Monthly Energy Trends


KAUA`I DISTRIBUTION OF JOBS AND WORKERS

Source: Census 2000 & County Business Patterns



Source: Census 2000 & County Business Patterns

Source: Census 2000


KAUAIAN LANDLINES
GREENER, CHEAPER

Commute Vehicle Substitution Scenario

Households 20,183 Van cost (@ $40k) $83 M
EV replacement* (@ $20k) $404 M
Employed 26,789 Total replacement cost $487 M
Emp in town 5,920 (22%) Fleet cost saving 12%
Carpool 4,143 (16%)
JTW Miles (@ 25 daily) 469,928
JTW Trips (between towns) 18,797 Miles w/ van 65,214
Fleet miles saving 86%
Vehicles 36,800
Gas ($4 @ 22mpg) $84,587
Fleet value (@ $15k) $552 M Gas w/ van ($4 @ 11mpg) $23,477
Gas cost saving 72%

* 1 per household

Source: The Kauaian Institute and Census 2000 data



FOOTPRINT REDUCTION

Selected Scenario:
50% reduced miles
Triple mileage

Transport Scenarios for Footprint Reduction

Transport target for achieving One
Planet Living (0.23 gha)
SOURCE: Scotland’s Footprint, Best Foot Forward, 2008

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