Startup IDEAS
and VALIDATION

Every startup begins with an
idea

Links in websites can be
ranked like citations in academic papers

Professionals need an online presence
and social network

This is a talk about
coming up with ideas

And picking a good one
through validation

It’s based on the book,
Hello, Startup hello-startup.net

I’m
Yevgeniy
Brikman
ybrikman.com

Founder
of
Atomic
Squirrel
atomic-squirrel.net

PAST LIVES

1. Inspiration 2. Knowledge 3.
Environment 4. Problem 5. Market 6. MVP Outline

1. Inspiration 2. Knowledge 3.
Environment 4. Problem 5. Market 6. MVP Outline

Where do ideas
come from?

Is it from a flash
of insight?

Thomas Edison and a light
bulb

Isaac Newton and an apple

Archimedes and “Eureka!”

Actually, most historians believe the
“Eureka!” story is made up.

An apple did not hit
Newton. He studied gravity for 20 years.

Edison didn’t invent the light
bulb, but an affordable filament.

After testing thousands
of materials.

“I have not failed. I've
just found 10,000 ways that won't work.” – Thomas Edison

Ideas are not just flashes
of insight. They grow and evolve.

Which means first, you must
plant seeds

The seeds of ideas are
knowledge

1. Inspiration 2. Knowledge 3.
Environment 4. Problem 5. Market 6. MVP Outline

What do the following songs
have in common?

They are all based on
the exact same 4 chords

And so are dozens of
other hit songs

Axis of Awesome 4 Chord
Song

Top 100 movies, 2000 -
2009

74 of them were sequels,
remakes, or adaptations

The sequel to a movie
based on a cartoon based on a US toy based on Japanese toy.

Microsoft Windows (~1990)

Apple Mac OS (~1984)

Xerox Alto (~1973)

Stanford NLS (~1968)

Not the first search engine
(Yahoo, Altavista, Excite, etc.)

Key idea copied from bibliometrics
and citation analysis

Not the first social network
(SixDegrees, Friendster)

Not the first professional network
(Ryze, Xing)

This talk is a remix
of my book

My book is a remix
of other books

Knowledge

Ideas

Ideas are connections between the
knowledge in your mind

The more you know, the
more connections are possible

To form connects, you need
the right environment

1. Inspiration 2. Knowledge 3.
Environment 4. Problem 5. Market 6. MVP Outline

Throughout history, we often see
multiple discovery

Calculus: Isaac Newton and Gottfried
Wilhelm von Leibniz

Evolution: Charles Darwin and Alfred
Russel Wallace

Telephone: Elisha Gray and Alexander
Graham Bell

“I invented nothing new. I
simply assembled the discoveries of other men behind whom were centuries of work. Had I worked 50 or 10 or even 5 years before, I would have failed. So it is with every new thing.

Progress happens when all the
factors that make for it are ready, and then it is inevitable. To teach that a comparatively few men are responsible for the greatest forward steps of mankind is the worst sort of nonsense.” – Henry Ford

The environment plays a huge
role in coming up with ideas

The key ingredients: 1. Keep
an idea journal 2. Get away from work 3. Add constraints 4. Live in the future 5. Look for pain 6. Talk to others

The key ingredients: 1. Keep
an idea journal 2. Get away from work 3. Add constraints 4. Live in the future 5. Look for pain 6. Talk to others

Not a diary, but a
way to log ideas whenever you have them.

No filters. Don’t judge your
ideas. Just write them down.

Write down not only ideas,
but also problems and questions.

A UC Davis study by
Dean Kean Simonton found eminent achievers produce not only more “great” works, but also more “bad” ones.

“The best way to have
a good idea is to have a lot of ideas.” – Linus Pauling

Review periodically. This is how
ideas grow and evolve.

The key ingredients: 1. Keep
an idea journal 2. Get away from work 3. Add constraints 4. Live in the future 5. Look for pain 6. Talk to others

First, work intensely to load
the problem into your mind.

Then get away from work.

Einstein had his best ideas
during violin breaks.

Some people get ideas in
the shower. I get mine on walks.

The key ingredients: 1. Keep
an idea journal 2. Get away from work 3. Add constraints 4. Live in the future 5. Look for pain 6. Talk to others

Try this exercise from Made
to Stick:

In 15 seconds, write down
as many things that are white as you can think of.

Do the exercise again, but
this time, write down white things in your refrigerator.

Which was easier?

Constraints breed creativity

Someone once challenged Ernest Hemmingway
to write a story in just 6 words. The result:

For sale: baby shoes, never
worn.

If no ideas are coming
to mind, try narrowing the problem space

The key ingredients: 1. Keep
an idea journal 2. Get away from work 3. Add constraints 4. Live in the future 5. Look for pain 6. Talk to others

“Live in the future, then
build what’s missing.” – Paul Graham

But how exactly do you
live in the future?

At Xerox PARC, they used
to play the Wayne Gretzky Game

“Skate to where the puck
is going to be, not where it has been.” – Wayne Gretzky

The key ingredients: 1. Keep
an idea journal 2. Get away from work 3. Add constraints 4. Live in the future 5. Look for pain 6. Talk to others

Where there is pain, there
is opportunity

“This is stupid, there must
be a better way” – Mahmoud Al-Qudsi

“Is this how the world
should be?” – Reid Hoffman

The key ingredients: 1. Keep
an idea journal 2. Get away from work 3. Add constraints 4. Live in the future 5. Look for pain 6. Talk to others

Don’t keep your ideas secret.

If someone could beat you
just by hearing your idea, it wasn’t a defensible idea to begin with.

Two minds are greater than
one

Just explaining your ideas out
loud will reveal new ideas

Even if the other person
isn’t an expert in that domain

Even if the other person
isn’t a person (rubber duck debugging)

1. Inspiration 2. Knowledge 3.
Environment 4. Problem 5. Market 6. MVP Outline

“The surprising fact is that
companies large and small, established corporate giants as well as brand new startups, fail in 9 out of 10 attempts to launch their new products.”

CB insights looked at the
post- mortems of 100+ failed startups

The #1 cause of failure:
“no market need”

Don’t spend years working on
the wrong problem

It’s easy to find something
that sounds like a problem, but isn’t

Consider the dental industry

Problems to solve: Healthy teeth,
healthy gums

Problems to solve: white teeth,
fresh breath

Wrong problem means wrong products,
marketing, sales

“People don't want to buy
a quarter-inch drill. They want a quarter-inch hole!” – Theodore Levitt

How to validate you’re solving
the right problem: 1. Ask who will buy it? 2. Ask the 5 whys 3. Ask why now? 4. Ask why you?

How to validate you’re solving
the right problem: 1. Ask who will buy it? 2. Ask the 5 whys 3. Ask why now? 4. Ask why you?

Find a customer before you
build the product

Don’t build anything until they
commit to buying it.

Who would buy a non-existent
product? An earlyvangelist.

Earlyvangelist: 1. They have a
problem. 2. They’re aware of the problem. 3. They built an interim solution. 4. They have money to spend.

To find these customers, you’ll
have to get out of the building

How to validate you’re solving
the right problem: 1. Ask who will buy it? 2. Ask the 5 whys 3. Ask why now? 4. Ask why you?

If you ask people what
coffee they like, most would say, “a dark, rich, hearty roast.”

But what most people actually
like is milky, weak coffee.

“If I had asked people
what they wanted, they would have said faster horses.” – Henry Ford

You have to dig to
find the real problems and solutions.

Try out the 5 Whys
Technique:

“The truck won’t start.”

“The battery died.”
“Why?
”

“The alternator wasn’t working.” “Why?
”

“The alternator belt broke.” “Why?
”

“The belt wasn’t replaced on
time.” “Why? ”

“We didn’t follow the maintenance
schedule.” “Why? ”

How to validate you’re solving
the right problem: 1. Ask who will buy it? 2. Ask the 5 whys 3. Ask why now? 4. Ask why you?

The famous question from Sequoia
Capital: Why now?

Why not 2 years ago?
2 years from now? What changed?

Example: Webvan vs Instacart.

How to validate you’re solving
the right problem: 1. Ask who will buy it? 2. Ask the 5 whys 3. Ask why now? 4. Ask why you?

You found a real problem.
Should you be the one to solve it?

Don’t ignore aspirations

It takes, on average, 10
years to build a successful startup

Are you willing to dedicate
a decade of your life to this?

If you’re willing, the next
step is to evaluate the market

1. Inspiration 2. Knowledge 3.
Environment 4. Problem 5. Market 6. MVP Outline

How many customers do you
need to be successful?

For example, if you want
to do $1B in revenue some day:

Sell product at: $1 to
1 billion: Coca-Cola (cans of soda) $10 to 100 million: Johnson & Johnson (household products) $100 to 10 million: Blizzard (World of Warcraft) $1,000 to 1 million: Lenovo (laptops) $10,000 to 100,000: Toyota (cars) $100,000 to 10,000: Oracle (enterprise software) $1,000,000 to 1,000: Countrywide (high-end mortgages) (from the Stanford Startup Engineering Course)

Market sizing techniques: 1. Research
competitors 2. Use ad-targeting tools 3. Find a community 4. Do some good-old research

Market sizing techniques: 1. Research
competitors 2. Use ad-targeting tools 3. Find a community 4. Do some good-old research

Competitors are a form of
validation too.

Tools to research competitors: 1.
Web analytics Quantcast, Moz, Comscore, Alexa, SimilarWeb 2. Mobile analytics App Annie, Apptopia, Xyo, Apptweak 3. Social analytics Fanpage Karma, SpyFu, Google Trends, Twitonomy 4. Funding CrunchBase, AngelList, Owler, Kickstarter

Market sizing techniques: 1. Research
competitors 2. Use ad-targeting tools 3. Find a community 4. Do some good-old research

Use ad-targeting tools to explore
market demographics

Ad-targeting tools: 1. Google Keyword
Planner 2. Facebook Ads 3. LinkedIn Ads 4. Twitter Ads

Market sizing techniques: 1. Research
competitors 2. Use ad-targeting tools 3. Find a community 4. Do some good-old research

There may already be a
community for your product

Community tools: 1. Meetup.com 2.
Lanyrd 3. Subreddits 4. Quora topics 5. LinkedIn Groups

Market sizing techniques: 1. Research
competitors 2. Use ad-targeting tools 3. Find a community 4. Do some good-old research

Research tools: 1. Newspapers, books,
journals 2. Government reports, SEC filings 3. Google 4. Google Trends 5. World Bank Data 6. AYTM Surveys 7. Nielson Research

If the market is big
enough, the next validation step is the MVP

1. Inspiration 2. Knowledge 3.
Environment 4. Problem 5. Market 6. MVP Outline

A Minimum Viable Product is
not a product. It’s a process.

“You know that old saw
about a plane flying from California to Hawaii being off course 99% of the time—but constantly correcting?

The same is true of
successful startups— except they may start out heading toward Alaska.” – Evan Williams

Naïve view of product
development

A more realistic view of
product development

In a trial-and-error world, the
one who finds errors fastest, wins.

The MVP process is repeatedly
ask yourself two questions:

1. What’s my riskiest assumption?
2. What’s the smallest experiment to test it?

The smallest experiment doesn’t have
to be a product.

Landing
page
MVP
(Buffer)

Explainer video MVP (Dropbox)

Crowd-funding MVP (Pebble)

Wizard of Oz MVP (Zappos)

Piecemeal MVP (Groupon)

The smallest experiment does have
to be viable

How to build an MVP

Let’s go through an example

1. Inspiration 2. Knowledge 3.
Environment 4. Problem 5. Market 6. MVP Outline

For more info, see Hello,
Startup hello-startup.net

For a list of startup
ideas, market sizing tools, and MVP tools, see hello-startup.net/resources

Axis of Awesome 4 Chord
Song

Questions?

Light bulb (blue): Serge Saint
Light bulbs (many): Andrew Moore Thomas Edison with bulb: Wikimedia Isaac Newton: Wikimedia Archimedes: Wikimedia Thomas Edison: Louis Bachrach Potted plant: Craig Sunter Windows: Wikimedia Mac OS: Wikimedia Xerox Alto: DigiBarn NLS Computer: Mother of All Demos Journey: Wikimedia Elton John: Wikimedia Beatles: Wikimedia Lady Gaga: Wikimedia Information vs knowledge: gapingvoid Everything is a Remix: Kirby Ferguson Copy, transform, combine: Kirby Ferguson Gottfried Wilhelm von Leibniz: Wikimedia Isaac Newton: Wikimedia Alfred Russel Wallace: Wikimedia Charles Darwin: Wikimedia Elisha Gray: Wikimedia Alexander Graham Bell: Wikimedia Henry Ford: Wikimedia Moleskine: Barn Images Linus Pauling: Wikimedia Glasses: Matheus Almeida Walk in the park: Brian Smithson Barbed wire: Alexandre Dulaunoy Wayne Gretzky Game: Alan Kay Blueprint: Will Scullin References & image credits, part 1

References & image credits, part
2 Egg: Kate Ter Haar Meeting: Simon Blackley Steve Blank: Wikimedia Death Valley: 白士 李 Men shaking hands: Didriks Toothpaste: William Warby Colgate aisle: Fredrik Rubensson Crest Pro Health: m01229 Listerine: Mike Mozart Crowd: Scott Cresswell Arm wrestling: U.S. Army Europe Images Community: Kat Clock: Earls37a Evan Williams: Wikimedia MVP car: Henrik Kniberg Wayne Gretzky: Wikimedia Paul Graham: Wikimedia Lab experiment: UCL Dean Simonton: UC Davis Google Analytics: Blue Fountain Media Coffee cup: OiMax Truck: darkday Report: Juhan Sonin