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DECISION MAKING
PROCESS
WRAP
WIDEN YOUR OPTIONS
ILLUSION OF LIMITED CHOICE
 Focus on existing options
 Alternative costs
 Disappearing options
CHOICES
 Yes-or-Not is not a choice
 Thinking AND, not OR
 Detect narrow frames by looking from
outside
 “Avoiding losses” and “Getting value”
 Solutions Paralysis
SUCCESS STORIES
 Who has solved this before?
 Playlist of winning choices
 Tracking decision results
LADDERING
 Happiness for all is an ideal world –
pears make the better world
 Pleasure is to be happy – pears are
happiness
 Sweetness is cool – pears are pleasure
 Pears are sweet
REALITY-TEST ASSUMPTIONS
SCOPING
 Basic Rates
 Global Scope (society, community,
country)
 Low-level details hitting particular
arguments
CHECKING THE OPPOSITE
BREAK THE ULTIMATE CONFIDENCE
OVER KNOWN ALTERNATIVES
 Assuming “positive intentions” in others
 Controlled failure
 “I was wrong. Time to find why”
OOCHING
 Our forecasts of the future are terribly
wrong
 Massive business plans suck, just go
there and try
 Short probation is better than long
interview
 Why predict if you can know
ATTAIN DISTANCE BEFORE DECIDING
BASIC PRIORITIES
 Don’t wipe emotions, listen to the core ones.
Goals, mission and aspirations
 Leveling. What person I’d like to become?
What company I’d like to build?
 Am I doing exactly what needs to be done
right now?
 Focus on the big goal when choosing
smaller steps
THE DISTANCE
 Momentary emotions lead to bad
long-term decisions
 We love thing we used to and hate to
loose even in small things
 10-10-10
 What would I advice to best friend
 What would my successor do
PREPARE TO BE WRONG
BUFFERS
FUTURE IS A RANGE
 Possible future is not a point, rather an array of possible
outcomes
 Buffers secure what is impossible to be predicted
 Readiness for problems helps us to cope with them
 Looking at the specter of possible outcomes: predicting wins
and loses, pushing the future to the desired state
EXTREME SCENARIOS OF THE FUTURE
 Post-mortem analysis. In a year we
totally failed. How and why does it
happened?
 Pre-parade. In 12 months we stand
as heroes. Are we ready for such a
success?
TRAPWIRES: PROBLEMS
 Autopilot-decisions with no critics over
ones we made in past (As all of them
were right. Yeah – you can even stand
for them being ideal)
 Putting more and more into bad
decisions (like playing teddy-bear-scam
games)
 Results considered as avalanche or
meteor coming in nano-seconds after
days of waiting
TRAPWIRES: SALVATION
 Trapwires as an alarm clock
during/before the process. Realizing
there is a choice
 Checkpoints on gradual
implementations
 Structuring “monolith” process:
division and setting terms
 Listen to strong feeling even with
maniac-styled line of defense set
QUESTIONS & DISCUSSION

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Decision Making Process: WRAP by Vlad turevsky

  • 2.
  • 3.
  • 5. ILLUSION OF LIMITED CHOICE  Focus on existing options  Alternative costs  Disappearing options
  • 6. CHOICES  Yes-or-Not is not a choice  Thinking AND, not OR  Detect narrow frames by looking from outside  “Avoiding losses” and “Getting value”  Solutions Paralysis
  • 7. SUCCESS STORIES  Who has solved this before?  Playlist of winning choices  Tracking decision results
  • 8. LADDERING  Happiness for all is an ideal world – pears make the better world  Pleasure is to be happy – pears are happiness  Sweetness is cool – pears are pleasure  Pears are sweet
  • 10. SCOPING  Basic Rates  Global Scope (society, community, country)  Low-level details hitting particular arguments
  • 11. CHECKING THE OPPOSITE BREAK THE ULTIMATE CONFIDENCE OVER KNOWN ALTERNATIVES  Assuming “positive intentions” in others  Controlled failure  “I was wrong. Time to find why”
  • 12. OOCHING  Our forecasts of the future are terribly wrong  Massive business plans suck, just go there and try  Short probation is better than long interview  Why predict if you can know
  • 14. BASIC PRIORITIES  Don’t wipe emotions, listen to the core ones. Goals, mission and aspirations  Leveling. What person I’d like to become? What company I’d like to build?  Am I doing exactly what needs to be done right now?  Focus on the big goal when choosing smaller steps
  • 15. THE DISTANCE  Momentary emotions lead to bad long-term decisions  We love thing we used to and hate to loose even in small things  10-10-10  What would I advice to best friend  What would my successor do
  • 16. PREPARE TO BE WRONG BUFFERS
  • 17. FUTURE IS A RANGE  Possible future is not a point, rather an array of possible outcomes  Buffers secure what is impossible to be predicted  Readiness for problems helps us to cope with them  Looking at the specter of possible outcomes: predicting wins and loses, pushing the future to the desired state
  • 18. EXTREME SCENARIOS OF THE FUTURE  Post-mortem analysis. In a year we totally failed. How and why does it happened?  Pre-parade. In 12 months we stand as heroes. Are we ready for such a success?
  • 19. TRAPWIRES: PROBLEMS  Autopilot-decisions with no critics over ones we made in past (As all of them were right. Yeah – you can even stand for them being ideal)  Putting more and more into bad decisions (like playing teddy-bear-scam games)  Results considered as avalanche or meteor coming in nano-seconds after days of waiting
  • 20. TRAPWIRES: SALVATION  Trapwires as an alarm clock during/before the process. Realizing there is a choice  Checkpoints on gradual implementations  Structuring “monolith” process: division and setting terms  Listen to strong feeling even with maniac-styled line of defense set