Are our estimates of palaeobiodiversity more apparent than real?
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This document discusses how estimates of past biodiversity from the fossil record may be limited by sampling biases and other issues. It reviews early curves showing diversity through time based on fossil data and examines more recent work that aims to account for biases by compiling extensive fossil databases, modeling diversity, and subsampling data. Studies of various fossil groups like dinosaurs, coccolithophores, and fishes are summarized, which aim to develop more robust estimates of past biodiversity by addressing problems like uneven sampling over space and time. The document concludes that while sampling biases remain a challenge, diversity curves are improving through more comprehensive data collection and modeling approaches.
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Are our estimates of palaeobiodiversity more apparent than real?
- 1. Are our estimates of palaeobiodiversity more apparent than real? Graeme T. Lloyd
- 2. Modern diversity is vast…
- 3. …but all stems from a single ancestor
- 4. How did life get so diverse? Last Universal Common Ancestor ?
- 5. How did life get so diverse? Last Universal Common Ancestor
- 6. Extant vs. fossil record Red – lineage through time plot based on extant data only Navy – lineage through time plot based on fossil data Ezard et al. 2011
- 7. Extant vs. fossil record Near et al. 2012
- 8. Earliest diversity curves Agassiz 1843
- 9. Earliest diversity curves Philips 1860
- 10. Early diversity curves Valentine 1970
- 11. But can we trust the curves? David Raup Miller 2009, after Raup 1972
- 12. Raup’s two solutions Subsampling Modeling Alroy 2010; Lloyd 2012
- 14. The consensus paper Median trace fossil Dolf Seilacher assemblage richness Species richness David Raup (Zoological record data) Median open-marine Richard Bambach community species richness David Raup Genus diversity Jack Sepkoski Family diversity Sepkoski et al. 1981
- 15. 2000s: a the data –early solutions Collating return to Raup’s curves Alroy et al. 2001 Peters and Foote 2001
- 16. 2000s: a the data –early solutions Collating return to Raup’s curves Alroy et al. 2001 Peters and Foote 2001
- 17. Subsampling Collating the data –early curves Alroy et al. 2008 Alroy 2010
- 18. Modeling data –early curves Collating the Smith and McGowan 2007
- 19. Common cause hypothesis Collating the data –early curves Peters 2005
- 20. (Common) causal–early curves Collating the data arrows Genera/ Packages O C S Sr Sea- level Hannisdal and Peters 2011
- 21. The rest thethe story… curves Collating of data –early ? ? Open ocean Shelf Terrestrial
- 22. Dinosaurs data –early curves Collating the Open ocean Shelf Terrestrial
- 23. Dinosaurs - sampling curves Collating the data –early Dinosaur-bearing localities Palaeoarea covered Phylogenetic diversity Taxonomic diversity Dinosaur-bearing formations Benton et al. 2011
- 24. Dinosaurs - subsampling Collating the data –early curves Raw + ghosts Raw Subsampled Lloyd et al. 2008
- 25. Dinosaurs - modeling curves Collating the data –early Lloyd 2012
- 26. Dinosaurs – data –early curves Collating the common cause Non-marine Haq SL surface area Packages Miller SL DBCs DBFs Butler et al. 2011
- 27. Coccolithophores–early curves Collating the data Open ocean Shelf Terrestrial
- 28. Coccolithophores–early curves Collating the data Lloyd et al. 2012
- 30. Coccolithophores–early curves Collating the data - database Yellow pins – ODP/DSDP Green pins – Land-based localities
- 31. Coccolithophores–early curves Collating the data – sp.:genus Lloyd et al. 2012
- 32. Coccolithophores–early curves Collating the data – sp.:genus Species:Genus N Sites N Authors Lloyd et al. 2012
- 33. Coccolithophores–early curves Collating the data – sp.:genus Rarefied with respect to N localities Rarefied with respect to N taxonomists Lloyd et al. 2012
- 34. Coccolithophores–early curves Collating the data vs.
- 35. Coccolithophores–early curves Collating the data – species Lloyd et al. 2012
- 36. Coccolithophores–early curves Collating the data – sampling Lloyd et al. 2012
- 37. Coccolithophores–early curves Collating the data – correlation richness rho = 0.02 richness sampling sampling rho = 0.40 rho = 0.48 Lloyd et al. 2012
- 38. Coccolithophores–early curves Collating the data – subsampling J K Pg+Ng J K Pg+Ng Lloyd et al. 2012
- 39. Coccolithophores–early curves Collating the data – modeling J K Pg+Ng J K Pg+Ng Lloyd et al. 2012
- 40. Fishes the data –early curves Collating Open ocean Shelf Terrestrial
- 41. Fishes – the data –early curves Collating old curves Agassiz 1843
- 42. Fishes – the data –early curves Collating old curves Thomson 1977
- 43. Fishes – the data –early curves Collating global curves Agassiz 1843 Carroll 1988 Benton 1993 Sepkoski 2002 Lloyd and Friedman, submitted
- 44. Fishes – the data –early curves Collating global curves Agassiz 1843 Carroll 1988 R^2 = 0.74 Benton 1993 Sepkoski 2002 R^2 = 0.91 Lloyd and Friedman, submitted
- 45. Fishes – the data –early curves Collating global curves Agassiz 1843 R^2 = -0.21 Carroll 1988 R^2 = -0.15 Benton 1993 Sepkoski 2002 Lloyd and Friedman, submitted
- 46. Fishes - database–early curves Collating the data Lloyd and Friedman, submitted
- 47. Fishes – the data –early curves Collating collector curve Lloyd and Friedman, submitted
- 48. Fishes – the data –early curves Collating grids sampled 1 2 3 4 0.5-degree net Plot localities Identify grids Count grids Lloyd and Friedman, submitted
- 49. Fishes – the data –early curves Collating raw diversity Lloyd and Friedman, submitted
- 50. Fishes – the data –early curves Collating proxies Formations Localities Grids Lloyd and Friedman, submitted
- 51. Fishes – the data –early curves Collating correlations Formations rho = 0.64 rho = 0.71 Localities Grids Lloyd and Friedman, submitted
- 52. Fishes – the data –early curves Collating multivariate modeling Lloyd and Friedman, submitted
- 53. Fishes – the data –early curves Collating subsampling Lloyd and Friedman, submitted
- 54. Fishes – the data –early curves Collating modeling Formations Localities Grids Lloyd and Friedman, submitted
- 55. Fishes – the data –early curves Collating cartilage vs. bone Lloyd and Friedman, submitted
- 56. Fishes – the data –early curves Collating cartilage vs. bone rho = 0.83 rho = 0.44 Formations rho = 0.53 rho = 0.20 Localities rho = 0.56 rho = 0.21 Grids Lloyd and Friedman, submitted
- 57. Conclusions data –early curves Collating the ? Sampling bias Sampling bias Common cause
- 58. Acknowledgements Collating the data –early curves Michael Steve Katie Matt Dave Rachel Benton Brusatte Davis Friedman Hone Jennings Davide Paul Marcello Manabu Andrew James Jeremy Pisani Pearson Ruta Sakamot Smith Tarver Young o
- 59. Fishes – the data –early curves Collating bone vs. cartilage Lloyd and Friedman, submitted