This document summarizes a study that used a regression equation to identify at-risk youth for violence and then provided those youth with evidence-based treatments. The regression equation incorporated demographic, behavioral, and test score data from past perpetrators of violent crimes. At-risk youth were identified in several urban Midwestern high schools and received anger management training, job opportunities, and mentoring. After treatment, homicides decreased by 32%, shootings by 46%, and assaults by 77%, saving approximately 104 lives and $492 million, with a return on investment of 6.42. The study showed promise for using a predictive model along with proven interventions to reduce violence and associated costs.
This document provides an introduction and literature review for a research project examining factors that influence perceptions of victimization and fear of crime in Sydney. The introduction discusses fear of crime as an important issue and outlines the research questions. The literature review covers previous research finding demographic variables like age, sex, and race correlate with fear of crime. Studies also link perceptions of neighborhood safety and disorder to fear. The methodology section describes the sample, variables, and statistical analysis that will be used to analyze the relationships between demographics, environment, and fear of crime. Tables 1 and 2.1-2.3 provide sample characteristics and preliminary results for research questions 1-3 on correlations between age, race, sex and indicators of fear.
Fetal alcohol spectrum disorder and risk-need-responsivity theory published v...BARRY STANLEY 2 fasd
Breach of probation is one of the most common judicial offences for those with FASD.
Risk assessments are carried out daily. The risk assessment tools that forensic psychiatry uses have never been validated for those with FASD: their cognitive, memory, information, and executive function disabilities are rarely taken into account.
This paper suggests ways to promote natural justice for those with FASD
PO 450 Final Research Project - Alejandro LunaAlejandro Luna
This document summarizes research from several studies about adolescent suicide and criminal accountability for coercing suicide. It discusses how surveys and interviews were conducted to understand the psychological factors behind suicidal victims, especially among LGBT youth. The studies found that LGBT individuals reported higher rates of suicidal ideation and abuse. They were more likely to experience harassment, fear for their safety, and consider suicide. The document examines laws regarding bias intimidation and controversial debates around freedom of speech versus equal protection. It analyzes the external influences that can play a role in suicide, like bullying, isolation, desire for revenge. The goal is to better understand the roots and severity of coercing suicide.
This document analyzes predictors of violent crime rates in the United States using regression analysis. The analysis uses data from 50 states and the District of Columbia across multiple variables related to policy areas like law enforcement, economics, and education. The regression found that the percentage of black population in a state had the strongest correlation with higher violent crime rates. When the District of Columbia was excluded from the model, education levels also showed correlation with lower crime rates. Overall, the analysis suggests further study of gun control, education policy, and demographic factors could help reduce violent crime, but larger predictive models may be needed.
This summary provides an overview of a research study examining factors that could predict police officers' attitudes towards the Black Lives Matter movement. The study surveyed 68 police officers across two departments, collecting data on demographics, preferred news sources, and moral beliefs. Significant positive correlations were found between survey items. Hispanic officers were more likely than white officers to perceive Black Lives Matter as legitimate. The use of conservative vs. neutral news sources also predicted some differences in attitudes. The study aimed to understand how individual police officers' characteristics may influence their interactions with communities and views of the Black Lives Matter movement.
Correlates of criminal behavior among female prisonersashtinadkins
The study examined relationships between attachment, childhood experiences, sensation seeking, and criminal behavior among 348 female inmates. Measures of attachment, adverse childhood events, alcohol use, and sensation seeking were administered and correlated with criminal behaviors. Preliminary results found several scales significantly correlated with number of crimes, including risk taking behaviors, adverse childhood events, experiences of partner abuse, and insecure attachments. Further path analyses may provide a more complex model of criminality accounting for different types of crimes.
1) The study aimed to examine how adverse social conditions can lead to the development of social schemas that increase the likelihood of criminal behavior. It tested a model linking parenting, community disadvantages, and discrimination to the formation of three social schemas: a hostile view of relationships, concern for immediate gratification, and a cynical view of social norms.
2) The results found the three schemas were interrelated but did not conclusively demonstrate that they formed a "criminogenic knowledge structure" that predicted criminal acts. However, the social factors did influence schema formation in expected ways.
3) Future research could improve on limitations like the homogenous sample and test how situational definitions mediated the relationship between schemas and crime. A more
This exquisite sample bibliography on criminal theory will get your inspiration up and get you writing in no time.Want to get more samples, visit this site. http://www.annotatedbibliographymaker.com/sample-bibliography-on-criminal-theory-annotated-bibliography/
This document provides an introduction and literature review for a research project examining factors that influence perceptions of victimization and fear of crime in Sydney. The introduction discusses fear of crime as an important issue and outlines the research questions. The literature review covers previous research finding demographic variables like age, sex, and race correlate with fear of crime. Studies also link perceptions of neighborhood safety and disorder to fear. The methodology section describes the sample, variables, and statistical analysis that will be used to analyze the relationships between demographics, environment, and fear of crime. Tables 1 and 2.1-2.3 provide sample characteristics and preliminary results for research questions 1-3 on correlations between age, race, sex and indicators of fear.
Fetal alcohol spectrum disorder and risk-need-responsivity theory published v...BARRY STANLEY 2 fasd
Breach of probation is one of the most common judicial offences for those with FASD.
Risk assessments are carried out daily. The risk assessment tools that forensic psychiatry uses have never been validated for those with FASD: their cognitive, memory, information, and executive function disabilities are rarely taken into account.
This paper suggests ways to promote natural justice for those with FASD
PO 450 Final Research Project - Alejandro LunaAlejandro Luna
This document summarizes research from several studies about adolescent suicide and criminal accountability for coercing suicide. It discusses how surveys and interviews were conducted to understand the psychological factors behind suicidal victims, especially among LGBT youth. The studies found that LGBT individuals reported higher rates of suicidal ideation and abuse. They were more likely to experience harassment, fear for their safety, and consider suicide. The document examines laws regarding bias intimidation and controversial debates around freedom of speech versus equal protection. It analyzes the external influences that can play a role in suicide, like bullying, isolation, desire for revenge. The goal is to better understand the roots and severity of coercing suicide.
This document analyzes predictors of violent crime rates in the United States using regression analysis. The analysis uses data from 50 states and the District of Columbia across multiple variables related to policy areas like law enforcement, economics, and education. The regression found that the percentage of black population in a state had the strongest correlation with higher violent crime rates. When the District of Columbia was excluded from the model, education levels also showed correlation with lower crime rates. Overall, the analysis suggests further study of gun control, education policy, and demographic factors could help reduce violent crime, but larger predictive models may be needed.
This summary provides an overview of a research study examining factors that could predict police officers' attitudes towards the Black Lives Matter movement. The study surveyed 68 police officers across two departments, collecting data on demographics, preferred news sources, and moral beliefs. Significant positive correlations were found between survey items. Hispanic officers were more likely than white officers to perceive Black Lives Matter as legitimate. The use of conservative vs. neutral news sources also predicted some differences in attitudes. The study aimed to understand how individual police officers' characteristics may influence their interactions with communities and views of the Black Lives Matter movement.
Correlates of criminal behavior among female prisonersashtinadkins
The study examined relationships between attachment, childhood experiences, sensation seeking, and criminal behavior among 348 female inmates. Measures of attachment, adverse childhood events, alcohol use, and sensation seeking were administered and correlated with criminal behaviors. Preliminary results found several scales significantly correlated with number of crimes, including risk taking behaviors, adverse childhood events, experiences of partner abuse, and insecure attachments. Further path analyses may provide a more complex model of criminality accounting for different types of crimes.
1) The study aimed to examine how adverse social conditions can lead to the development of social schemas that increase the likelihood of criminal behavior. It tested a model linking parenting, community disadvantages, and discrimination to the formation of three social schemas: a hostile view of relationships, concern for immediate gratification, and a cynical view of social norms.
2) The results found the three schemas were interrelated but did not conclusively demonstrate that they formed a "criminogenic knowledge structure" that predicted criminal acts. However, the social factors did influence schema formation in expected ways.
3) Future research could improve on limitations like the homogenous sample and test how situational definitions mediated the relationship between schemas and crime. A more
This exquisite sample bibliography on criminal theory will get your inspiration up and get you writing in no time.Want to get more samples, visit this site. http://www.annotatedbibliographymaker.com/sample-bibliography-on-criminal-theory-annotated-bibliography/
This study examines the relationship between domestic violence, college campuses, and poverty in Chicago. Crime and campus data from 2014 are analyzed spatially. Map 1 shows the distribution of different types of domestic violence crimes across the city. Map 2 indicates that campus domestic violence rates do not seem directly connected to neighborhood rates. Map 3 reveals that areas with lower median incomes have higher clustering of domestic violence crimes, suggesting income and domestic violence are inversely related. The study aims to better understand how risk factors like poverty influence domestic violence rates.
This document discusses a study analyzing shoplifting crime data from Hoover, Alabama. The study found that African American females had the highest rate of shoplifting crimes reported. The purpose is to use this data to develop targeted rehabilitation programs aimed at reducing recidivism. Some proposed programs include education and job skills programs, as well as programs focused on family relationships and the impact on children. Confrontational deterrence programs are found to be ineffective, while rehabilitation programs tailored to individual offenders show more positive results in reducing repeat offenses.
The document summarizes a two-day workshop on sexual violence research held by the National Institute of Justice in June 2008. Day one included opening remarks, presentations on current sexual violence research from the Centers for Disease Control, National Institutes of Health and National Institute of Justice, and discussions of research priorities. Topics included surveillance methods, risk factors, prevention programs, and evaluations of intervention efforts. The goal was to advance knowledge on responding to sexual violence and inform criminal justice policies.
Effect of item order on self-reported psychological aggression: Exploring the...William Woods
There are a plethora of data indicating that intimate partner violence (IPV) occurs at high rates in college students (Shorey, Cornelius, & Bell, 2008). Although studies have repeatedly demonstrated these high rates of IPV, some researchers have criticized the reliability and validity of the self-report measures commonly used to assess these rates (Follingstad & Ryan, 2013; Ryan, 2013). There is some research to suggest that subtle factors, such as item order, can impact self-reports of violence victimization and perpetration (Ramirez & Straus, 2006). This phenomenon has been most widely studied in the context of the Revised Conflict Tactics Scales (CTS2; Straus, et al., 1996), a widely used measure of IPV, which may not comprehensively assess psychological aggression. Thus, in the current study we examined differences in self-reports of psychological aggression victimization and perpetration using the Multidimensional Measure of Emotional Abuse (MMEA; Murphy & Hoover, 1999) when it was administered in either the standard format or in a format in which question order was randomized. Given that there may be gender differences in victimization and perpetration, we also examined the impact gender would have on item order effects.
Presented at ABCT, Nov. 2015.
An empirical test of low self-control theory among hispanic youth (Published)Eliseo Vera
This study examines the applicability of Gottfredson and Hirschi's general theory of crime in explaining delinquency among Hispanic youth. Specifically, it tests whether key dimensions of parental monitoring and recognition of deviant behavior predict levels of self-control, and whether low self-control mediates the relationship between parenting and deviant behaviors. The study uses a sample of 277 Hispanic youth to analyze these relationships. Previous research on the theory has produced mixed findings regarding the impact of parenting on self-control and the mediating role of self-control.
The Influence of Ethnicity on Attachment (Willis, Smith, Sanford, 2010)Jarryd_Willis
1) The study investigated the influence of ethnicity on attachment styles across same-sex friends, opposite-sex friends, and romantic partners.
2) 701 college students from various ethnic backgrounds completed a survey measuring attachment anxiety and avoidance.
3) Results showed attachment anxiety was highest for romantic partners and avoidance was lowest for romantic partners. African Americans showed higher avoidance than Caucasians in opposite-sex friendships.
This document summarizes a student's research analyzing self-reported crime data to understand the decline in youth violence. The student used data from the GREAT surveys from 1995-1999 and 2006-2010. The results showed that self-reported simple assault decreased consistently across both time periods, matching conclusions from police and victimization data. Specifically, the prevalence and frequency of reported simple assault declined, suggesting this contributed most to the overall drop in youth violence.
The document discusses various topics related to measuring and explaining crime including:
1. How the FBI collects and reports crime data from over 17,500 policing agencies each year.
2. The differences between Part I and Part II offenses in the Uniform Crime Report.
3. Additional data sources like the National Crime Victimization Survey which measures both reported and unreported crimes.
4. Explanations for trends in crime rates over time as well as relationships between crime and factors like race, poverty, and gender.
This document summarizes a research article that applies strain theory to study street youth and labor market strain. It describes the article's focus on occupational strain for older homeless youth. It reviews Agnew's expansion of strain theory and summarizes the article's hypotheses and methods. Key findings include that strain significantly predicted crime and youth with more delinquent peers were at greater risk of criminal behavior. The discussion concludes that labor market strain independently influences deviance for street youth.
The document summarizes key concepts in criminology. It discusses how crime data is collected through the Uniform Crime Report and National Crime Victimization Survey. It also defines hypotheses and theories, and summarizes several criminological theories like social disorganization theory, social process theory, and theories connecting offenders and victims. The chronic offender theory is explained as the idea that a small group is responsible for most crime. The importance of research accessibility for the criminal justice system is noted.
Three studies have found that psychedelic drug use may reduce criminal behavior:
1) A 2017 study of over 480,000 people found that lifetime use of psilocybin and other psychedelics was associated with reduced odds of arrest and crimes like larceny, property crimes, violent crimes, and assault.
2) Between the 1950s-1970s, studies administering LSD and psilocybin to criminal offenders observed improvements in empathy, insight, and treatment engagement.
3) However, the 2017 study results are based on self-reports rather than observations, and more research is needed to understand how psychedelics impact the brain to influence behavior.
Violence prevention programs an exploratory study of the chojas18
This document summarizes a study that examined characteristics of youth who participated in a court diversion program for family violence offenses to determine what characteristics prevented completion. The study found that delinquency characteristics like prior violent arrests and school truancy significantly impacted completion rates. Specifically, youth with these risk factors were less likely to successfully complete the program. The findings suggest a more tailored intervention approach is needed for high-risk, multi-problem youth to address recidivism.
How Useful Are Sexual Recidivism Assessments Review PresentationInnocence Smith
This document summarizes a presentation on how useful sexual recidivism assessments are. It discusses several studies that analyzed the predictive validity of various risk assessment instruments like Static-2002R and MnSOST-R in predicting sexual and violent recidivism among treated sex offenders. The studies also examined relationships between test scores, files, and recidivism rates. Researchers concluded by discussing implications and proposing improvements to better estimate recidivism risk and treatment effectiveness.
This document provides an overview of Jade Stevens' dissertation which examines the theoretical explanations of sexual offending. The dissertation will explore theories such as Finkelhor's Precondition Model, Marshall and Barbaree's Integrated Theory, and Ward and Siegert's Pathway Model to understand why some individuals are sexually attracted to children. It will also look at female sexual offenders and whether the theories apply differently. The document outlines Stevens' methodology, which will involve a literature review of existing research. It acknowledges some limitations around primary research due to ethical considerations of interviewing sexual offenders.
This study tested a model of modern homonegativity by examining the relationships between affective characteristics (anger and disgust), cognitive characteristics (religious beliefs and conservative ideology), exposure to queer individuals, and levels of modern homonegativity. The researchers hypothesized that anger, disgust and cognitive characteristics would be associated with higher modern homonegativity, while direct (but not indirect) exposure would be associated with lower homonegativity by impacting cognitive characteristics. Structural equation modeling supported the hypotheses and revealed that direct exposure reduced cognitive characteristics and modern homonegativity, while indirect exposure increased anger.
The document discusses different methods for measuring cyberbullying and traditional bullying among students. It compares using a global survey item versus specific behavior items, and applying lenient versus strict cut-off scores to identify bullies. The study aimed to see how prevalence rates differed based on these measurement methods. 1150 students aged 10-15 completed online surveys about bullying and cyberbullying behaviors. More students were identified as occasional or frequent cyberbullies when using specific behavior items compared to a global item. Applying a strict versus lenient cut-off score also impacted prevalence rates. Irrespective of measurement method, students identified as both traditional and cyberbullies exhibited higher levels of aggression.
The editorial discusses whether there is a genetic basis for recidivism, or re-offending, among sex offenders and violent criminals. It notes that recidivism rates are around 18.9% for rapists and 12.7% for child molesters. Recent genetic research suggests that certain genes may predispose individuals to impulsive or antisocial behaviors, putting them at greater risk of criminal involvement. Specifically, studies have found a link between low levels of the MAOA enzyme and increased antisocial behavior. While genetics cannot determine behavior directly, an understanding of biological and social factors related to criminality could help develop more preventative and humane criminal justice policies that incorporate genetic risk factors.
This document introduces an issue of Behavioral Sciences and the Law focusing on international perspectives on juvenile crime. It summarizes decades of research on predicting and preventing juvenile delinquency from researchers around the world, including studies on differentiating types of juvenile offenders, risk factors for criminal behavior, and effective intervention and treatment programs. The research shows progress in diagnosis, risk assessment, and understanding developmental origins and pathways leading to crime. It highlights continued need for research across countries to further advance understanding and create safer societies worldwide.
This study examines the relationship between domestic violence, college campuses, and poverty in Chicago. Crime and campus data from 2014 are analyzed spatially. Map 1 shows the distribution of different types of domestic violence crimes across the city. Map 2 indicates that campus domestic violence rates do not seem directly connected to neighborhood rates. Map 3 reveals that areas with lower median incomes have higher clustering of domestic violence crimes, suggesting income and domestic violence are inversely related. The study aims to better understand how risk factors like poverty influence domestic violence rates.
This document discusses a study analyzing shoplifting crime data from Hoover, Alabama. The study found that African American females had the highest rate of shoplifting crimes reported. The purpose is to use this data to develop targeted rehabilitation programs aimed at reducing recidivism. Some proposed programs include education and job skills programs, as well as programs focused on family relationships and the impact on children. Confrontational deterrence programs are found to be ineffective, while rehabilitation programs tailored to individual offenders show more positive results in reducing repeat offenses.
The document summarizes a two-day workshop on sexual violence research held by the National Institute of Justice in June 2008. Day one included opening remarks, presentations on current sexual violence research from the Centers for Disease Control, National Institutes of Health and National Institute of Justice, and discussions of research priorities. Topics included surveillance methods, risk factors, prevention programs, and evaluations of intervention efforts. The goal was to advance knowledge on responding to sexual violence and inform criminal justice policies.
Effect of item order on self-reported psychological aggression: Exploring the...William Woods
There are a plethora of data indicating that intimate partner violence (IPV) occurs at high rates in college students (Shorey, Cornelius, & Bell, 2008). Although studies have repeatedly demonstrated these high rates of IPV, some researchers have criticized the reliability and validity of the self-report measures commonly used to assess these rates (Follingstad & Ryan, 2013; Ryan, 2013). There is some research to suggest that subtle factors, such as item order, can impact self-reports of violence victimization and perpetration (Ramirez & Straus, 2006). This phenomenon has been most widely studied in the context of the Revised Conflict Tactics Scales (CTS2; Straus, et al., 1996), a widely used measure of IPV, which may not comprehensively assess psychological aggression. Thus, in the current study we examined differences in self-reports of psychological aggression victimization and perpetration using the Multidimensional Measure of Emotional Abuse (MMEA; Murphy & Hoover, 1999) when it was administered in either the standard format or in a format in which question order was randomized. Given that there may be gender differences in victimization and perpetration, we also examined the impact gender would have on item order effects.
Presented at ABCT, Nov. 2015.
An empirical test of low self-control theory among hispanic youth (Published)Eliseo Vera
This study examines the applicability of Gottfredson and Hirschi's general theory of crime in explaining delinquency among Hispanic youth. Specifically, it tests whether key dimensions of parental monitoring and recognition of deviant behavior predict levels of self-control, and whether low self-control mediates the relationship between parenting and deviant behaviors. The study uses a sample of 277 Hispanic youth to analyze these relationships. Previous research on the theory has produced mixed findings regarding the impact of parenting on self-control and the mediating role of self-control.
The Influence of Ethnicity on Attachment (Willis, Smith, Sanford, 2010)Jarryd_Willis
1) The study investigated the influence of ethnicity on attachment styles across same-sex friends, opposite-sex friends, and romantic partners.
2) 701 college students from various ethnic backgrounds completed a survey measuring attachment anxiety and avoidance.
3) Results showed attachment anxiety was highest for romantic partners and avoidance was lowest for romantic partners. African Americans showed higher avoidance than Caucasians in opposite-sex friendships.
This document summarizes a student's research analyzing self-reported crime data to understand the decline in youth violence. The student used data from the GREAT surveys from 1995-1999 and 2006-2010. The results showed that self-reported simple assault decreased consistently across both time periods, matching conclusions from police and victimization data. Specifically, the prevalence and frequency of reported simple assault declined, suggesting this contributed most to the overall drop in youth violence.
The document discusses various topics related to measuring and explaining crime including:
1. How the FBI collects and reports crime data from over 17,500 policing agencies each year.
2. The differences between Part I and Part II offenses in the Uniform Crime Report.
3. Additional data sources like the National Crime Victimization Survey which measures both reported and unreported crimes.
4. Explanations for trends in crime rates over time as well as relationships between crime and factors like race, poverty, and gender.
This document summarizes a research article that applies strain theory to study street youth and labor market strain. It describes the article's focus on occupational strain for older homeless youth. It reviews Agnew's expansion of strain theory and summarizes the article's hypotheses and methods. Key findings include that strain significantly predicted crime and youth with more delinquent peers were at greater risk of criminal behavior. The discussion concludes that labor market strain independently influences deviance for street youth.
The document summarizes key concepts in criminology. It discusses how crime data is collected through the Uniform Crime Report and National Crime Victimization Survey. It also defines hypotheses and theories, and summarizes several criminological theories like social disorganization theory, social process theory, and theories connecting offenders and victims. The chronic offender theory is explained as the idea that a small group is responsible for most crime. The importance of research accessibility for the criminal justice system is noted.
Three studies have found that psychedelic drug use may reduce criminal behavior:
1) A 2017 study of over 480,000 people found that lifetime use of psilocybin and other psychedelics was associated with reduced odds of arrest and crimes like larceny, property crimes, violent crimes, and assault.
2) Between the 1950s-1970s, studies administering LSD and psilocybin to criminal offenders observed improvements in empathy, insight, and treatment engagement.
3) However, the 2017 study results are based on self-reports rather than observations, and more research is needed to understand how psychedelics impact the brain to influence behavior.
Violence prevention programs an exploratory study of the chojas18
This document summarizes a study that examined characteristics of youth who participated in a court diversion program for family violence offenses to determine what characteristics prevented completion. The study found that delinquency characteristics like prior violent arrests and school truancy significantly impacted completion rates. Specifically, youth with these risk factors were less likely to successfully complete the program. The findings suggest a more tailored intervention approach is needed for high-risk, multi-problem youth to address recidivism.
How Useful Are Sexual Recidivism Assessments Review PresentationInnocence Smith
This document summarizes a presentation on how useful sexual recidivism assessments are. It discusses several studies that analyzed the predictive validity of various risk assessment instruments like Static-2002R and MnSOST-R in predicting sexual and violent recidivism among treated sex offenders. The studies also examined relationships between test scores, files, and recidivism rates. Researchers concluded by discussing implications and proposing improvements to better estimate recidivism risk and treatment effectiveness.
This document provides an overview of Jade Stevens' dissertation which examines the theoretical explanations of sexual offending. The dissertation will explore theories such as Finkelhor's Precondition Model, Marshall and Barbaree's Integrated Theory, and Ward and Siegert's Pathway Model to understand why some individuals are sexually attracted to children. It will also look at female sexual offenders and whether the theories apply differently. The document outlines Stevens' methodology, which will involve a literature review of existing research. It acknowledges some limitations around primary research due to ethical considerations of interviewing sexual offenders.
This study tested a model of modern homonegativity by examining the relationships between affective characteristics (anger and disgust), cognitive characteristics (religious beliefs and conservative ideology), exposure to queer individuals, and levels of modern homonegativity. The researchers hypothesized that anger, disgust and cognitive characteristics would be associated with higher modern homonegativity, while direct (but not indirect) exposure would be associated with lower homonegativity by impacting cognitive characteristics. Structural equation modeling supported the hypotheses and revealed that direct exposure reduced cognitive characteristics and modern homonegativity, while indirect exposure increased anger.
The document discusses different methods for measuring cyberbullying and traditional bullying among students. It compares using a global survey item versus specific behavior items, and applying lenient versus strict cut-off scores to identify bullies. The study aimed to see how prevalence rates differed based on these measurement methods. 1150 students aged 10-15 completed online surveys about bullying and cyberbullying behaviors. More students were identified as occasional or frequent cyberbullies when using specific behavior items compared to a global item. Applying a strict versus lenient cut-off score also impacted prevalence rates. Irrespective of measurement method, students identified as both traditional and cyberbullies exhibited higher levels of aggression.
The editorial discusses whether there is a genetic basis for recidivism, or re-offending, among sex offenders and violent criminals. It notes that recidivism rates are around 18.9% for rapists and 12.7% for child molesters. Recent genetic research suggests that certain genes may predispose individuals to impulsive or antisocial behaviors, putting them at greater risk of criminal involvement. Specifically, studies have found a link between low levels of the MAOA enzyme and increased antisocial behavior. While genetics cannot determine behavior directly, an understanding of biological and social factors related to criminality could help develop more preventative and humane criminal justice policies that incorporate genetic risk factors.
This document introduces an issue of Behavioral Sciences and the Law focusing on international perspectives on juvenile crime. It summarizes decades of research on predicting and preventing juvenile delinquency from researchers around the world, including studies on differentiating types of juvenile offenders, risk factors for criminal behavior, and effective intervention and treatment programs. The research shows progress in diagnosis, risk assessment, and understanding developmental origins and pathways leading to crime. It highlights continued need for research across countries to further advance understanding and create safer societies worldwide.
CAREER OBJECTIVE: To contribute my quota to the development of a reputable social development organization, via hard work, a good team spirit, efficiency, dedication to service and at the same time improve my intellectual skill and pursue a fulfilling career in a dynamic organization where new social development ideas are initiated and corporate goals achieved.
This document provides information on an internet-based psychological testing service called the Standard Predictor that can assess risk factors for businesses and organizations. It summarizes that the Standard Predictor uses online testing to quickly and cost-effectively screen for substance abuse, mental health issues, and violent/abusive tendencies, allowing employers to minimize workplace risks. Validation studies found the Standard Predictor identified at-risk individuals with over 97% accuracy and its use saved lives and hundreds of millions of dollars for government agencies and non-profits.
The document discusses children's development from ages 0-5 years across social-emotional, physical, and cognitive domains. It provides milestones to observe and ways to promote development at different ages. The key messages are that children develop at their own pace, parents know their child best, and seeking professional advice can help address significant delays.
The document describes LOVEKIT, a branded intimate products company based in Slovenia. It discusses LOVEKIT's flagship product, the LOVEKIT Special intimate kit, which contains condoms, lubricant, towels and instructions. It notes the kit's presence in 78 DM stores in Slovenia and arrangements in Italy and the UAE. The document outlines LOVEKIT's marketing efforts and brand vision to become a leading hotel amenity and internationally available product within 5 years. It introduces the company founder and his experience in marketing, sales, and new product development.
This document outlines a proposed program to prevent sexual violence on a college campus. It begins with introducing the problem of sexual violence on college campuses and defining key terms. It then discusses social and environmental determinants of sexual violence and presents data on prevalence of sexual assault among college students. The target population is identified as college-aged students, particularly women. A needs assessment was conducted through interviews with campus health experts and reviewing campus statistics. The document proposes using this information to develop goals, objectives, and strategies for a prevention program.
This document provides an overview of a paper that will discuss issues with disproportionate minority confinement in the US criminal justice system. It begins with a brief history of the author's experience growing up as a young black man in a low-income urban environment. It then discusses the "Nothing Works" doctrine which hypothesized that rehabilitation programs did not work. It notes high recidivism rates and that minorities are disproportionately represented in the criminal justice system. The paper aims to investigate why rehabilitation programs have failed and why minorities face disproportionate rates of confinement through the author's perspective combining academic study and experience as a law enforcement officer.
This document is a research proposal that examines bullying in primary and secondary school environments. It begins with an introduction that defines bullying and notes its prevalence. It then discusses characteristics of typical victims and bullies, differences in bullying by grade, gender, and type of aggression. The proposal also reviews effects of victimization like increased health issues, anxiety, depression, and substance abuse. The methods section outlines plans to study participants of different ages, genders, and socioeconomic backgrounds using surveys to collect both qualitative and quantitative data for analysis.
Now that you have examined two theories of crime and how they migh.docxhenrymartin15260
Now that you have examined two theories of crime and how they might explain any particular crime, it is time to examine how criminal justice responses to crime may be shaped by these theories. For this part of your course project, complete the following:
Discuss your first theory and how criminal justice responses may be formed based on the assumptions of this theory.
Discuss your second theory and how criminal justice responses may be formed based on the assumptions of this theory.
Examine any actual criminal justice responses that have been implemented based on the assumptions of these theories.
This assignment should be at least two 2-3 pages in length (adding to the final paper).
Use at least 3-5 scholarly sources that discuss a criminal justice response. These sources must be properly cited using APA format. Students should seek out peer-reviewed scholarly journal articles from LIRN to complete this assignment or explore the National Criminal Justice Reference Service for examples of how the criminal justice system has responded.
Abstract and conclusion
Abstract
This paper will be on two criminology theories; the positivist and the classical theory. These two theories will be discussed and how the criminal justice system responded towards the assumptions. It explains how certain crimes are looked at and also dealt with.
The commitment of various criminal activities attracts action from the criminal justice system. However, on many different occasions, the criminal justice system has been criticized for handling those who commit crime with great leniency and mercy. The only way that crime can be reduced and those who intend to commit crimes in future stopped is through institution of various reforms in the criminal justice system. Through two of the criminal theories, the criminal justice system can be reformed and help and guide on making adjustments in the theory (Siegel, 2012). The two theories are the positivist theory of criminology and the classical theory of criminology. The two could help enhance the responses of the criminal justice system in the following ways.
This theory of criminology holds on to the fact and aspect that the intelligence of an individual is a central factor and issue in committing various criminal activities. A low level of intelligence in individuals is believed to be at the center of engagement in various crimes. On the basis of this theory, the criminal justice system t can benefit in the following ways in enhancing to cases where individuals engage in criminal activities such as child abuse due to low levels of intelligence.
The criminal justice system should ensure that individuals who commit crimes that they are very well aware of and capable of preventing themselves from engaging in have a mental check up before they convict them and institute heavy penalties. There should be no mercy to an individual who commits a crime and the best way to penalize such individuals by the criminal justice.
current trends in criminal justice systemPATRICK MAELO
The document discusses several topics related to criminal justice including:
1) The balance between public safety and individual privacy with new technologies, requiring transparency and accountability in their use.
2) How population growth and demographics can impact future crime rates, with some groups like black males facing higher risks of criminal involvement.
3) The roles of social science in public policy and law enforcement, through understanding human behavior but also requiring care to avoid bias.
4) Debates between trait theorists and social structure theorists around the influences of genetics versus environment on human behavior and crime. Both factors are seen as interacting to shape behavior.
Social Networks & HIV Risk Behavior Using Respondent-Driven SamplingStephane Labossiere
This document summarizes a study that used Respondent-Driven Sampling (RDS) to recruit a diverse sample of men who have sex with men (MSM) across different social networks in New York City. The researchers recruited initial participants, or "seeds," from six social networks: bars/clubs, internet/mobile apps, bathhouses/sex clubs, colleges, professional organizations, and community centers. They screened 393 men at bars/clubs and enrolled 223 eligible participants. Preliminary results found that most participants reported their primary residence as Manhattan and sex with men only in the past year. Participants reported professional organizations as the most important venue for meeting other men, followed by the internet/mobile apps and bars/clubs, with
Abstract.docxAbstractWith scientific knowledge of youth deve.docxaryan532920
Abstract.docx
Abstract
With scientific knowledge of youth development programs that have grown dramatically over the last couple of decades, theoretical frameworks for translating research into more supportive environments for youth have lagged. Most articles proposes a risk/protective theoretical perspective grounded in ecological and developmental only in theories, but the principles taken from the theory are documented with little success. Most young adults involved in crime because of the environment where they have grown makes them more attracted to criminal activities from a young age. If the policy and procedures along with follow up was adhere to, there could be a higher success rate of these programs to deter adolescents from crime and promote positive youth development and prevent problem behaviors. Community crime prevention programs or strategies target changes in community infrastructure, culture, or the physical environment in order to reduce crime. The diversity of approaches include neighborhood watch, community policing, urban or physical design, and comprehensive or multi-disciplinary efforts. These strategies may seek to engage residents, community and faith-based organizations, and local government agencies in addressing the factors that contribute to the community’s crime, delinquency, and disorder.
REFERENCES
Bogenschneider, K. (1996). An Ecological Risk/Protective Theory for Building Prevention Programs, Policies, and Community Capacity to Support Youth. Family Relations,45(2), 127-138. doi:10.2307/585283
Chp 1 Intro.docx
Chapter 1: Introduction
With homicide as the second leading cause of death for young people between the ages of 10 and 24 (Centers for Disease Control, Prevention [CDC], 2009a). In 2009, 650,843 assault-related non-fatal injuries in youth age 10 to 24 were treated at emergency departments across the United States. The term youth violence is used to encompass many forms of violence among young people, including more serious forms (e.g., homicide) and behaviors that are less serious in nature (e.g., fighting). Youth violence is thus defined as “the intentional use of force–whether threatened or real–against a person, group, or community that results in or has a high likelihood of resulting in injury, death, psychological harm or deprivation by persons between the ages of 10 and 24 ( Dahlberg & Krug, 2002).
Many individuals, family members, peers, and community factors have been found to increase the likelihood of an individual's violent offending. Such risk factors have been empirically identified through multiple studies and predict violent behavior longitudinally (Hawkins et al., 2000; Murray & Farrington, 2010). A relatively new area of research in youth violence prevention involves examining protective factors (i.e., variables that have a moderating effect on risk factors) related to violence perpetration. This research can also inform prevention efforts, in tha.
Gang Membership, Violence, and Psychiatric Morbidityjeremy coid
Gang members engage in many high-risk activities associated with psychiatric morbidity, particularly violence related ones. The authors investigated associations between gang membership, violent behavior, psychiatric morbidity, and
use of mental health services. The study concluded that gang members show inordinately high levels of psychiatric morbidity,
placing a heavy burden on mental health services. Traumatization and fear of further violence, exceptionally prevalent in gang members, are associated with service use. Gang membership should be routinely assessed in individuals presenting to health care services in areas with high levels of violence and gang activity. Health care professionals may have an important role in promoting desistence from gang activity.
This study measured levels of homophobia and behavioral intentions toward homosexuals in 106 undergraduate students. As expected, men scored higher on the homophobia scale and were less likely to support homosexual rights than women. Strong athletic identity and religious involvement also correlated with higher homophobia. While age, year in school, and athletic status did not predict attitudes, sexual orientation and religiousness did. The findings suggest interventions are needed to improve attitudes, especially among male students.
2
Literature Review
Arlenn Campos
Department of forensic psychology
Northcentral University
PSY- 6510 V3 : Capstone in forensic psychology
Dr. John Mitchell
October 20, 2022
Introduction
The Efficacy of Psychological Treatments for Violent Offenders in Correctional.
A.
Who Are the Treatments for In a Correctional Facility?
In terms of its consequences on victims, the life quality for violators, and the financial impact it places on correctional facilities, the healthcare system, and society as a whole, violence is a serious global public health issue. According to research, a very small percentage of habitually aggressive people is liable for a disproportionately large number of violent episodes. These individuals are often jailed or, in the case of those with mental illness, confined in secure facilities for the goal of incapacitating and rehabilitating them. Up to 70% of prison inmates, hospitalized offenders, and felons under supervision in the community in affluent countries are violent offenders, as well as clinical psychologists are frequently depended upon to handle the rehabilitative requirements of those deemed at danger of future violence. In recent years, there has been a global explosion in the creation and execution of programs addressing offender behavior (Bartol & Bartol. 2019). These efforts are the result of comprehensive meta-analytic as well as primary research demonstrating that these programs may significantly lower a criminal's likelihood to commit more offenses. Widely referred to as the "what works" or risk-need-responsivity model to offender rehabilitation, the most effective programs conform to core, empirically proven service delivery criteria (Andrews & Bonta, 2010).
1.
Drug Addictions Definition
"A curable, chronic medical condition involving intricate interactions amongst neural pathways, genetics, the surroundings, and a person's life experiences," is how the American Society of Addiction Medicine describes addiction. Addicts abuse drugs or engage in activities that quickly become obsessive and, most of the time, continue doing so despite the fact that they are having negative effects on their lives. Many individuals, although not all, start taking drugs or participating in activities freely at some point in their lives. On the other hand, addiction has the potential to diminish one's capacity for self-control.
2.
Offenders’ Definition
The criminal justice system labels violent offenders among the most serious criminals because they have been apprehended, found guilty, and even incarcerated for felony crimes like robbery, aggravated battery, sexual violence and spousal abuse, rape, and even murder (Woody, 2019)). Offenders who committed violent crimes either possessed, owned, or utilized a firearm or other potentially lethal weapon, which resulted in the victim's death or significant physical damage. According to the findings of a study (Conis & Delisi, 201.
Design your own spring break course may 3 2012vzayas
This document discusses emotional self-awareness and social awareness, with a focus on handling emotions in relationships skillfully and with harmony. It addresses issues like school violence, bullying, cyberbullying, hate crimes, road rage, and how cultural diversity, gender differences, and other factors influence violence in society. The document provides statistics on cyberbullying prevalence and effects. It promotes the Miami Dade College Violence Prevention Initiative to increase awareness of violence as a public health issue and encourage students to recognize their role in changing cultures that tolerate violence.
This document provides an overview of a research project examining intimate partner violence (IPV) among young people ages 12-24 in Belize, with an emphasis on cyber abuse. The researchers conducted a literature review on existing studies related to gender-based violence, bullying, and healthy relationships. They then administered an online survey to 59 young people and held a focus group with 4 young adults to understand their views and experiences related to dating, IPV, and cyber abuse. The methodology section outlines the mixed methods research design using qualitative and quantitative data collection and analysis. The research aimed to answer questions about perceptions of IPV and healthy relationships among youth, as well as understanding of cyber-based gender violence.
Children and Families Forum Suicide Prevention for Children and AJinElias52
Children and Families Forum: Suicide Prevention for Children and AdolescentsBy Liza Greville, MA, LCSWSocial Work TodayVol. 17 No. 5 P. 32
With the release of the Netflix drama 13 Reasons Why in March 2017, social workers from middle schools to colleges and universities across the country found themselves plunged into conversations with adolescents and young adults around topics related to suicide. While many mental health professionals objected strongly to the series, saying it contains harmful messages about the inevitability of suicide, the ability to achieve revenge through suicide, the absence of helpful others, and insufficient messages about the availability of help and support, most professionals acknowledged that, apart from these concerns, the series opened a space for conversation on a topic that is shrouded in stigma, fear, pain, and misunderstanding.
By having an accurate understanding of the scope of the problem, confronting myths and imprecise language, and using best practices in screening, intervention, and prevention, social workers have a critical role in helping children, adolescents, and young adults move through a suicidal crisis to emotional wellness.
Data on Suicide
According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), suicide was the 10th-leading cause of death for all ages in 2013. Suicide was the third-leading cause of death among persons aged 10 to 14, and the second among persons aged 15 to 34, though middle-aged adults accounted for the largest proportion of suicides (56% in 2011). The percentage of adults having serious thoughts about suicide was highest among adults aged 18 to 25 (7.4%), followed by adults aged 26 to 49 (4%), then by adults aged 50 and older (2.7%) (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2015).
The following were noted among students in grades nine through 12 during 2013:
• Seventeen percent of students seriously considered attempting suicide in previous 12 months (22.4% of females and 11.6% of males).
• 13.6% of students made a plan about how they would attempt suicide in the previous 12 months (16.9% of females and 10.3% of males).
• Eight percent of students attempted suicide one or more times in previous 12 months (10.6% of females and 5.4% of males).
• 2.7% of students made a suicide attempt that resulted in an injury, poisoning, or an overdose that required medical attention (3.6% of females and 1.8% of males) (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2015).
New research presented in May 2017 at the Pediatric Academic Societies Meeting analyzed hospital admissions with a diagnosis of suicidal thoughts or behaviors and serious self-harm from 32 children's hospitals across that nation from 2008 to 2015. Researchers found the number of admissions has more than doubled during the past decade. The research found the largest increases among girls, and seasonal variations with the spring and fall having higher admission rates than summer (American Academy of Pediatrics, 2017 ...
10.11770022427803260263ARTICLEJOURNAL OF RESEARCH IN CRIME AN.docxchristiandean12115
This document summarizes competing theories on whether the perceived risk of punishment deters criminally prone individuals from committing crimes. It discusses three main perspectives: 1) that all individuals are equally deterred regardless of criminal propensity, 2) that criminally prone individuals are less deterred due to their impulsivity and focus on immediate gratification, and 3) that criminally prone individuals are more deterred since socialized individuals act based on moral obligations rather than costs/benefits. The article then analyzes data from a longitudinal study in New Zealand to test the relationship between criminal propensity, perceived punishment risks, and criminal behavior.
Alexander LeeDr. Martha ShermanCrim250W2282020 Will .docxADDY50
Here is a draft experimental methods proposal:
Designing the Experiment
Part 1
The research question I aim to answer is: Does priming individuals to "believe victims" affect trust in eyewitness evidence and jury verdicts in sexual assault cases?
Sample and Sampling Procedure
I will recruit a sample of approximately 1000 students from introductory psychology, sociology, and criminology courses at Pennsylvania State University. Students will be offered extra credit for participating. I will send recruitment and reminder emails with a link to the online study. Students can only participate once but can earn credit for multiple courses. This is a sample of convenience but college students are regularly used in jury decision making research.
Independent and Dependent Variables
Morality Relativism & the Concerns it RaisesI want to g.docxroushhsiu
This document discusses the debate around moral relativism and absolutism. It begins by defining moral relativism as the view that morality is culturally dependent and there are no universal moral truths. Moral absolutism is defined as the view that there are clear moral truths that apply to all people regardless of circumstances. The document then examines some of the issues raised by these perspectives, such as whether judging other cultures is justified and whether progress can be made in ethics. It also discusses forms of relativism that allow for some shared moral purposes across cultures.
Health Psychology of Urbanicity: Does it Increase Violent Behavior within Ado...Joseph White MPA CPM
This document provides background information for a research study examining whether factors related to urban living increase the likelihood of violent criminal behavior in adolescents. The study aims to identify scientific risk factors and create an equation to assess the probability of violence. Some potential risk factors discussed include access to quality education, race, and gender. The researcher hopes to determine practical crime reduction methods and increase safety in urban communities. The literature review discusses topics like the relationship between education and crime rates, impacts of unemployment, and how racial injustices can fuel conflicts. The goal is to better understand adolescent development and behavior within urban environments.
Article
Sex Offender Recidivism Revisited: Review of
Recent Meta-analyses on the Effects of Sex
Offender Treatment
Bitna Kim
1
, Peter J. Benekos
2
, and Alida V. Merlo
1
Abstract
The effectiveness of sex offender treatment programs continues to generate misinformation and disagreement. Some literature
reviews conclude that treatment does not reduce recidivism while others suggest that specific types of treatment may warrant
optimism. The principal purpose of this study is to update the most recent meta-analyses of sex offender treatments and to com-
pare the findings with an earlier study that reviewed the meta-analytic studies published from 1995 to 2002. More importantly,
this study examines effect sizes across different age populations and effect sizes across various sex offender treatments. Results of
this review of meta-analyses suggest that sex offender treatments can be considered as ‘‘proven’’ or at least ‘‘promising,’’ while age
of participants and intervention type may influence the success of treatment for sex offenders. The implications of these findings
include achieving a broader understanding of intervention moderators, applying such interventions to juvenile and adult offenders,
and outlining future areas of research.
Keywords
offenders, sexual assault, recidivism, intervention
Introduction
The topic of sex offenders generally elicits fear and anxiety
from the public and contributes to punitive policies aimed at
harsh, exclusionary punishments. The perspective that commu-
nities need to be protected from sex offenders through incar-
ceration and surveillance often overshadows the prospects
that treatment can also provide public safety. In their study,
Kernsmith, Craun, and Foster (2009) found that citizen respon-
dents who reported higher levels of fear of sex offenders were
more supportive of registration requirements for sex offenders.
Levenson, Brannon, Fortney, and Baker (2007) also reported
that public perceptions of sex offenders reflect public anxiety
and support for community protection.
Although negative attitudes toward sex offenders are not
reflective of all countries, cultural differences and historical
context can account for less punitive public responses. For
example, McAlinden (2012) found that therapeutic interven-
tions for sex offenders were more prevalent in European coun-
tries than in England and Wales. She attributes this to a more
scientific and medical approach to sex offending across Europe
and less emphasis on ‘‘sexual abuse as a moral, legal, and social
problem’’ (p. 170). Nevertheless, the sex offender problem has
become more serious across Europe and policies reflect a shift
toward more punitive attitudes and sanctions (McAlinden,
2012). Not only in European countries but also in the United
States, one of the misgivings about how to respond to sex
offenders concerns the effectiveness of treatment.
In this article, the authors address the treatment issue by
updat.
Similar to Applyingbesttreatmentsbyusingagregressionequationtotargetviolenceproneyouthareview (20)
1. ORIGINALITY | CREATIVITY | UNDERSTANDING
Comprehensive Psychology
Comprehensive Psychology is an Open Access peer-reviewed publication and
operates under the CC-BY-NC-ND Creative Commons License. The Author(s)
retains copyright to this article and all accompanying intellectual property rights.
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COMPREHENSIVE
PSYCHOLOGY
www.AmSci.com
3. Treatment of Violence-prone Youth / R. J. Zagar, et al.
tion, prevention, and cost reduction: (a) using empirically
developed regression equations to identify those prone to
violence; (b) building programs comprising treatments
shown to be eff ective by meta-analyses of intervention
research; and (c) applying and assessing cost-benefi t
analyses of the interventions used to divert those at risk
for violent behavior. The goal of this paper is to review
these three approaches, and then describe a partial appli-cation
in an urban high school system with post hoc analy-sis
of cost-benefi t to show whether the approaches, used
together, can lower violence and reduce costs.
From a developmental/sociological theory of homi-cide
and violence, high school is the fi nal key environ-ment
in the development of violent tendencies among
youth ( Zagar, Busch, Grove, & Hughes, 2009a ; Zagar,
Zagar, Bartikowski, & Busch, 2009 ; Zagar, Zagar, Bar-tikowski,
Busch, & Stark, 2009) . Intercepting violence
in the high schools is expected to lower homicide rates
eff ectively, save lives, and reduce social and govern-mental
costs ( Zagar, Isbell, Busch, & Hughes, 2009 ;
Zagar, Zagar, Bartikowski, & Busch, 2009) .
Organization of This Report
The organization of this report begins with a descrip-tion
of the identifi cation of violence-prone persons with
actuarial measures, then the development of an empiri-cally
derived, predictive regression equation. The second
part includes a review of the meta-analyses of interven-tions
shown to divert youth from criminal behavior, par-ticularly
violence. The third section comprises cost-benefi t
analyses to assess the return on investment ( ROI ) of these
interventions. Finally, a real-world application is described
in which these three approaches could be used to address
wider problems in prisons and communities.
Identifi cation of Violence-prone Persons
Since the pioneering work of Burgess (1928) , investiga-tors
have studied actuarial and/or statistical prediction of
delinquent and later criminal behavior. The criterion was
“return to court” (a subsequent off ense) or “dangerous-ness.”
Eighty-two risks were found consistently. These
risks were categorized as adult court contact; commu-nity,
family, and home risks; individual medical status;
employment; juvenile court contact; peer relationships;
and academics. These demographic characteristics have
been valuable in saving the costs avoided by detecting,
apprehending, convicting, imprisoning, and not paroling
dangerous off enders. More recently the assessments for
violence have been used in clinics, workplaces, and uni-versities
to assess the risk of criminal off ending.
There are two ways to fi nd persons with tendencies
toward violence: (a) using a predictive regression equa-tion;
or (b) employing a case study approach with statis-tical
(actuarial) testing. In the fi rst method, one can use
information such as demographics, life history, academic
records, and standardized test scores to create a valid pre-dictive
regression equation. This method will be discussed.
The second method, the case study approach with statisti-cal
(actuarial) testing, has been discussed in Zagar, Kovach,
Basile, Hughes, Grove, Busch, et al., 2013 , (in review) and
will not be further mentioned here. The regression equa-tion
to identify risk-prone teens has a proven track record
of predicting which youths may become violent, compared
with those less likely to commit off enses against persons.
Since early in the 20 th century, recidivism or “return
to court” has been predicted by tracking criminals over
time and comparing those who “returned to court” ver-sus
those who did not. Male and female adolescent and
adult off enders on 3 continents, (5 countries; 17 states or
provinces) were tracked for up to 10 years in these stud-ies.
Using meta-analyses to compare the eff ect sizes of pre-dictors
or risks, Lipsey and Derzon (1998 ) examined the
predictors of violent behavior. These predictors varied as
a function of age of the sample. For very young off enders,
Farrington (1997 ) reported that a serious fi rst off ense was
the best predictor. For the younger off ender, past behavior
was the best predictor of future violence ( Lipsey & Der-zon,
1998 ). For the older off ender, lack of social ties, hav-ing
antisocial peers, or gang membership were the best
predictors of violence (Lipsey & Derzon 1998 ). Bonta,
Hanson, and Law (1998 ) found that the best predictor of
adult violent behavior was past criminal off enses. Other
risks included early antisocial behavior, convicted parents
and family, poverty, school failure, unemployment, and
drug use. In predicting homicide (Busch, Zagar, Hughes,
Arbit, & Bussell, 1990; Zagar, Arbit, Sylvies, Busch, &
Hughes, 1990 ), criminally violent family and relatives,
physical abuse, gang membership, and alcohol and sub-stance
abuse were the statistically signifi cant risks. Zagar,
Isbell, Busch, and Hughes (2009 ) showed that prior court
contact, lower executive function (poorer decision mak-ing),
infant illnesses, frequent home and school moves,
and alcohol and substance abuse were the best predictors
of homicide from infancy to adulthood.
Zagar and Grove (2010 ) improved the accuracy of
predicting homicide from records of up to 12 years of
early childhood and youth risks in a sample of 1,127
youths to an Area under the Curve ( AUC) = .91 ( Fig.
1 ). Using a similar procedure, among 1,595 adults, with
Shao's bootstrapped logistic regression procedure ( Shao,
1996 ), the AUC was .99. The predictive equations in
a combined adult and youth sample of 2,722 had an
AUC of .96. The accuracy of these results is notewor-thy
because most literature attempting to predict recidi-vism
or violence has AUCs in the region from .69 to .76
( Moosman, 2013 ). For example, Quinsey, Harris, Rice,
and Cormier (1998, 2006 ) tested non-randomly selected
violent off enders without a control group, resulting
in a Receiver Operating Characteristic 3 (ROC) of .76.
3 The Receiver Operating Characteristic is roughly equal to the Area
under the Curve. The Area under the Curve has a range of zero to 1.0,
with .5 being 50% accurate and 1.0 being 100% sensitive and specifi c.
Comprehensive Psychology 2 2013, Volume 2, Article 6
4. Treatment of Violence-prone Youth / R. J. Zagar, et al.
Fig. 1. Regression-weighted scores yield sensitive and specifi c discrimination of 1,127 violent (■) from matched non-violent
youth (Infants …; Children and Teens ■). AUC = .91.S.
Among 200 non-randomly selected sex off enders with-out
a control group, these same researchers obtained
ROC = .70. Thus, the bootstrapped logistic regression
represents a considerable improvement in predictive
accuracy ( Zagar, Busch, Grove, & Hughes, 2009b ; Zagar
& Grove, 2010 ), providing a sound empirical basis for
risks that consistently and reliably predict future vio-lent
criminal activity. These risks include poor execu-tive
functioning (decision making and related abilities),
lower social maturity, weapons possession conviction,
violent family, gang membership or participation, male
gender, academic underachievement, serious illnesses,
prior court contact or arrest, low socioeconomic sta-tus,
substance abuse, previous neurological disorder,
alcohol abuse, head injury, and truancy/suspension
or expulsion ( Table 1 ) ( Busch, et al., 1990 ; Zagar, Arbit,
Sylvies, Busch, & Hughes, 1990 ; Zagar, Arbit, Busch,
Hughes, Schiliro, Sylvies, et al., 1992 ; Zagar, Arbit,
Busch, Hughes, & Sylvies, 1998 ; Zagar, Busch, Grove, &
Hughes, 2009b ; Zagar, Busch, Grove, Hughes, & Arbit,
2009 ; Zagar & Grove, 2010 ). When Chandler, Levitt,
and List (2011) examined 12,989 higher-risk students
among whom there were 500 perpetrators who com-mitted
shootings, the signifi cant personal characteris-tics
predicting shooting were consistent with this prior
research: male gender, academic underachievement,
prior court contact or arrest, low in socioeconomic sta-tus
(SES), truancy, suspension, and expulsion.
Effectiveness and Cost-benefi t of Interventions
In his meta-analyses, Lipsey evaluated the eff ects of
empirical treatments in diverting youth from court.
Lipsey (1992 , 1995 , 1999 , 2006a , 2006b , 2009 ) reviewed
500 treatment studies from 1950–1995. As seen in Fig.
2 , over 50 years, in several meta-analyses the most
eff ective treatments have been identifi ed. The best
interventions for youth were: (1) jobs, resulting in a
37% rate of diversion from court; (2) behavioral ther-apy
or anger management training, with a 25% diver-sion
rate; and (3) multi-modal therapy or personal
mentoring, with a 25% diversion rate ( Lipsey, 1999 ).
Personal characteristics of off enders, treatment and
program variables, and outcome eff ect sizes in terms
of behavioral changes for serious off enders have been
clearly delineated. Lipsey's (1999 ) meta-analysis was
consistent with ad hoc treatments selected by the thera-pist
being less eff ective.
In Fig. 2 , Wilson and Lipsey (2007) demonstrated the
relative treatment eff ect size needed to improve behav-ior,
i.e., how successive increases in treatment dose
were associated with decreases in re-off ending. Mul-timodal,
carefully monitored, and closely supervised
therapies were the best interventions. The most eff ec-tive
programs focused on social skills, activity levels,
and problem behaviors. Treating aggression was con-siderably
less eff ective. However, it could be that this
approach misses the most crucial element of treatment:
targeted, timely application of treatments over the age-specifi
c course of the most risky behaviors.
In the third column of Table 3 is the Washington
State Policy Institute's (2006) list of evidence-based
treatments. Application of these treatments may reduce
future prison construction, criminal justice costs, and
crime rates. For prevention programs, the best Return
on Investment (ROI) was pre-kindergarten interven-tions
for low-income 3- to 4-year-olds, with $20.57 in
savings expected for every dollar spent. For juvenile
off enders, the best ROI was inter-agency coordination
programs, with $25.03 in savings for every dollar spent.
For adult off enders, the best ROI was cognitive behav-ior
therapy, with $98.09 in savings expected for every
dollar spent. Knowledge of the various interventions
and their relative ROIs are important to decision mak-ers.
With a quick glance at Table 2 , one can see that adult
Comprehensive Psychology 3 2013, Volume 2, Article 6
5. Treatment of Violence-prone Youth / R. J. Zagar, et al.
TABLE 1
Eff ect Sizes For Regressions of Four Groups of Homicidal Youth With Controls and One School Shooting Sample
Eff ect Size
(n = 30)
Zagar, et al .,
Eff ect Size
(n = 26)
Zagar, et al. ,
2009b
Eff ect Size
( n = 127)
Zagar, et al .,
2009b
Regression Coeffi cients
( n = 500)
Chandler, Levitt, & List,
2011
1 Poor executive function 1.53 1.71 1.63 1.59
2 Lower social maturity 1.33 1.23 0.91 1.21
3 Weapon possession conviction 1.07 0.99 1.21 1.10
4 Violent family 0.76 0.56 1.08 0.83
5 Gang membership /
participation 0.70 0.79 0.54 0.70
6 Male gender 0.54 0.74 0.89 0.63 *
7 Underachievement 0.45 0.59 0.67 0.57 *
8 Illness 0.42 0.68 1.03 0.57
9 Prior court contact 0.54 0.62 1.10 0.54 *
10 Alcohol and substance abuse 0.40 0.55 0.71 0.52
11 Low socioeconomic status 0.34 0.72 0.92 0.50 *
12 Substance abuse 0.38 0.69 0.46 0.44
13 Neurological disorder 0.42 0.71 0.24 0.43
14 Alcohol abuse 0.29 0.35 0.67 0.41
15 Head injury 0.39 0.52 0.15 0.37
16 Truancy, suspension, expulsion 0.10 0.24 1.03 0.33 *
17 Epilepsy 0.32 0.39 0.30 0.31
18 Jaundice 0.38 0.52 0.29 0.37
19 Sensory and speech disorder 0.49 0.58 1.03 0.33
20 Physically abused 0.47 0.22 0.67 0.41
Note Since only two group regression coeffi cients were provided by Chandler, et al . (2011 ), no eff ect sizes could be computed;
*indicates a risk factor was a predictor of violence at p < .05. Eff ect size is the diff erence between means divided by the pooled
standard deviation (Hedges & Olkin, 1986). An eff ect size of 0.2 is considered small, 0.5 is medium, 0.8 is large, and 1.7 is very
large ( J. Cohen, 1988 ).
cognitive behavior therapy, inter-agency coordination,
job, juvenile diversion program, pre-kindergarten edu-cation,
adult community drug treatment, nurse fam-ily
partnership for children training, anger/aggression
replacement training, juvenile functional family ther-apy,
vocational education, multidimensional treatment,
high school graduation equivalency, teen courts, restor-ative
justice, and multi-systematic therapy all have
ROIs above $10 for every $1 dollar spent.
The Culture of Calm: an Intervention
to Prevent Violence
In 2009, the U.S. Department of Justice (U.S. DOJ)
funded a trial intervention called the “Culture of Calm”
in a Midwestern, urban high school setting within
crime-ridden areas ( Saulny, 2009 ; Shelton & Banchero,
2009 ). The grant provided funding for: (a) develop-ment
of an empirical, predictive, regression equation
to identify at-risk youth; (b) evidence-based interven-tions
( Lipsey, 1999 ) to reduce court contact, compris-
Eff ect Size
(n = 71)
Busch, et al .,
1990
1990
Fig. 2. School-based program eff ects on behaviors: weight-ed
mean eff ects. Data for Social skills through Performance
adapted from Wilson and Lipsey (2007) ; multimodal therapy
(mentor), behavior change (anger management) and jobs
comprised treatment in the U.S. DOJ funded Culture of Calm ,
and were adapted from Lipsey (1999) .
Comprehensive Psychology 4 2013, Volume 2, Article 6
6. Treatment of Violence-prone Youth / R. J. Zagar, et al.
TABLE 2
Estimate of Injury, Lives, and Costs Saved by the Culture of Calm Program (ROI) = 6.42 1
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Total Saved
Chicago murders (a) 510 458 449 440 205 2,062
Youth murders (b) 100 90 88 86 40 404
CULTURE OF CALM
Students 0 250 1,700 1,700 1,200 4,850
High schools 0 6 38 38 32 38
Decrease in murders 0 29 28 28 13 104
Murder costs saved a 0 $135 $131 $131 $61 $457
Assaults 12,343 12,478 13,479 12,978 6,787 58,065
Decrease in assaults with injury 0 192 1,309 1,309 924 2,734
Assault costs saved a 0 $5.70 $39 $39 $28 $111
Murder + assault costs saved a 0 $140 $169 $169 $88 $568
U.S. Justice funds spent a 0 $20 $20 $20 $17 $77
Return on investment (ROI) 0 6.05 7.48 7.48 2.65 6.42
Note a Values are in millions of dollars. 1 2012 U.S. dollar costs based on U.S. Department of Agriculture (1994) , Cohen
and Miller (1994 ), Cohen, Miller, and Rossman (1994 ), Cohen (1995, 1998), Cohen and Piquero (2007 ), Lino (2007), Zagar,
Zagar, Bartikowski, and Busch (2009 ), and the Consumer Price Index (2012) in the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (2013).
The national rate of youth homicide is 9.8% (Federal Bureau of Investigation, 2012) but the Chicago youth homicide rate
is 19.6% ( Harris, 2009 ; Ahmed-Ullah, 2011 ; Ritram, 2011 ; Vevea, 2011 ; Dardick, 2012 ; Byrne & Dardick, 2013 ) .
ing anger management training, jobs, and mentors; and
(c) analysis of the cost savings achieved applying these
interventions to lower violence. An age-specifi c model
that focused on particular risks for homicide was pre-sented
to the decision makers (Mayor and staff ) with
specifi c predictive factors for infants, children, teens,
and adults. The model was based on evidence that the
statistical predictions were accurate in identifying indi-viduals
who were at-risk for violent behavior from 1989
to 2009 in Chicago and Cook County ( Zagar, Busch,
Grove, & Hughes, 2009b ). Four distinct, cross-validated
samples of 127 homicidal teens and two larger samples
of youth ( N = 1,127) and adults ( N = 1,595) were used
to model risk factors and interventions. Anger man-agement
training, jobs, and mentoring were empha-sized
as the best interventions for potentially homicidal
youth. The suggestion was to apply one or more of the
above-mentioned, empirically supported interventions
among the at-risk in urban high schools, due to the high
number of homicides and shootings. The grant's devel-opment
of a predictive regression equation using com-munity
data imitated the technique already successful
in identifying at-risk youth.
The schools' CEO and staff used police data from
500 shooting incidents to identify the demographic
characteristics of these most at-risk youths. The logistic
regression fi ndings from these community data ( Harris,
2009 ; Saulny, 2009 , Shelton & Banchero, 2009 ; Ahmed,
2010 ; Chicago Board of Education, 2010; Rossi, 2010 ;
Chandler, et al., 2011 ) were consistent with previous
reports ( Busch, et al., 1990 ; Zagar, Arbit, Sylvies, Busch,
& Hughes, 1990 ; Zagar, Busch, Grove, Hughes, & Arbit,
2009 ; Zagar & Grove, 2010 ). The reliable predictors used
to target the interventions were: male gender; the num-ber
of serious misconduct behaviors per day; below
average academic performance or failing a grade; per-cent
days suspended; percent days absent; juvenile jail;
adult jail; Illinois State Achievement Test (ISAT) read-ing
score; ISAT mathematics score; free lunch status;
and times shot previously.
The intervention began in six high schools in crime-ridden
areas of Chicago. These locations were identi-fi
ed by police as having high violence rates, using crime
statistics. Based on the above-mentioned regression
developed from 500 perpetrators of shooting incidents
among 12,989 higher-risk students, the 250 most at-risk
students across the initial six schools were chosen
for receipt of jobs ( Schochet, Burghardt, & Glazerman,
2001 ), behavior therapy or anger management train-ing
( Alexander, Sexton, & Robbins, 2000 ; Larson, 2005 ),
and multimodal therapy or adult mentoring ( Heng-geler,
Schoenwald, Borduin, Rowland, & Cunningham,
1998 ). These interventions were applied in the six high
schools during 2009 to 250 students; in 38 schools dur-ing
2010 to 1,700 students; in 38 high schools during
2011 to 1,700 students; and in 32 schools during 2012 to
1,200 students.
The Culture of Calm program resulted collectively
in an estimated savings of 104 lives and $491 million
in resources. Specifi cally, there were 32% fewer homi-cides,
46% fewer shootings, and 77% fewer assaults
( Harris, 2009 ; Ahmed Ullah, 2011 ; Ritram, 2011 ; Vevea,
Comprehensive Psychology 5 2013, Volume 2, Article 6
7. Treatment of Violence-prone Youth / R. J. Zagar, et al.
2011 ). The total Return on Investment (ROI ) was 6.42
( Ahmed, 2010 ; Rossi, 2010 ) as indicated in Table 2 . Data
included (a) the youth homicide rate (Federal Bureau
of Investigation, 2012; U.S. Bureau of Justice Statistics,
2006); (b) the 19.6% Chicago rate of youth homicides
(like Chicago, many large U.S. cities' homicide rates are
far above the national rate); (c) the youth homicide rate
during the Culture of Calm; (d) the total students treated
in the Culture of Calm; (e) the number of high schools in
the program; (f) the youth murder reduction during the
Culture of Calm (the number of students enrolled times
the 32% fewer shootings converted to homicides with
an equation developed by O'Flaherty & Sethi, 2010 ).
These data were used to estimate the lifetime cost saved
by reduced youth murders: $4,660,986 per homicide
(from Zagar, Zagar, Bartikowski, & Busch, 2009 , with
the regional Consumer Price Index in 2012 added, times
a 32% decline in killings based on the 46% decrease in
shootings); with these estimates, the total savings over
the four years of the Culture of Calm were $456,776,628.
In addition to the savings from homicides prevented,
it was possible to estimate costs saved from reductions
in assaults. Using the rate of youth high school assaults
with injury, the reduction of youth high school assaults
in Culture of Calm (77%), and the cost of youth assault
with injury of $29,872 per incident ( Zagar, Zagar, Bar-tikowski,
& Busch, 2009 ; the 2012 regional Consumer
Price Index was added times the number of assaults in
participating schools); the savings over four years was
$111,571,920. The outcome in terms of ROI was calcu-lated
from the homicide rate plus the reduced assault
cost under the Culture of Calm, and the U.S. DOJ funds
spent over four academic years on the Culture of Calm
($76,600,000).
Yet another way of looking at the outcome is to con-sider
that, if the cost of program was $76,600,000 and
104 lives were saved, the cost of saving each life was
$730,769. Based on the 2012 dollar value of the loss
of a life at $4,660,986, the ROI for this program was
$4,660,986/$730,769 = 6.38. A summary of this complex
outcome might be, “ Help at-risk youth be productively
busy so they don't have time to murder.” In short, violence
was reduced and resources saved.
Extending Cost-effective Targeting
Statistical prediction supported with eff ective interven-tions
form a strategy that may be diffi cult to improve.
The fi rst increase in eff ectiveness is gained by identify-ing
those in the at-risk population most likely to com-mit
a homicide. Data from shootings in the local police
fi les are easily available. The next step was applying
one or more empirically supported treatments. The
treatment with the greatest eff ect on violence rates was
jobs. In the Chicago Culture of Calm U.S. DOJ grant,
anger management training, jobs, and mentoring were
applied together. Examining Fig. 2 and Tables 2–3 , it is
clear the Chicago Culture of Calm program could be
extended to at-risk infants and children by providing
pre-kindergarten education to the very young, nurses to
train mothers in child-rearing, encouraging interagency
cooperation, and applying cognitive behavior therapy
and functional family therapy for children in middle
school, along with the jobs, mentors, and anger man-agement
for the most at-risk teens in the high schools. It
has been projected that such an age-specifi c targeting of
cost-benefi cial, cost-eff ective interventions could lower
homicide rates by 89% in a city like Chicago (see Table 3
of Zagar, Busch, & Hughes, 2009 ).
There are other ways to extend the use of targeting
and treatment of at-risk and violent youth and adults.
Benefi ts, costs, and effi ciency drive all such decisions.
Approximate lifetime costs, including mental disorders
or prison, associated with various at-risk behaviors are
shown in Fig. 3 . Obviously there is ample economic
reason to address such problems for at-risk individu-als.
Given that approximately 1% of the population is
psychotic and another 1% has depressive or mood dis-orders,
means that in the U.S. there are 6 million men-tally
ill. One percent are pedophiles or sex off enders
and 1% are addicted/alcoholic. Among these 12 mil-lion
at-risk individuals, some could potentially be hom-icidal
or violent, so employing scientifi c approaches to
assist those most at-risk to lead a higher quality of life
will also safeguard the community. Using either regres-sion
equations or actuarial (statistical) tests and then
targeting treatments to these at-risk youth and adults
is important to lower the lifetime costs and the chance
that a small portion of these non-off ender, at-risk indi-viduals
will perpetrate a homicide or become a chronic
delinquent or criminal.
Prisoners with mental disorders (mainly psycho-ses)
could be more eff ectively treated in hospitals; these
comprise some 15% of imprisoned adults and youth. In
Cook County, annual expenses are $225,000 per delin-quent
compared to medical and the psychiatric hospi-tals
at $150,000 per year, which was why since 1955 most
state psychiatric facilities were closed, moving those
with psychiatric disorders into the community and
thence many into prisons ( Primeau, Bowers, Harrison,
& Xu, 2013 ). Using either regression or actuarial (sta-tistical)
tests to fi nd the at-risk, which is more sensitive
and specifi c than clinical judgment, is important from a
cost-benefi cial point of view but also for the safety of the
community, given that some off enders are homicidal.
The relative annual cost estimates of several possible
interventions based on computerized testing, medica-tion,
and case management are presented in Fig. 4 .
Many severely mentally ill in the community are not
monitored and choose not to take medication; a minor-ity
who become violent cause terrible loss of life, includ-
Comprehensive Psychology 6 2013, Volume 2, Article 6
8. Treatment of Violence-prone Youth / R. J. Zagar, et al.
TABLE 3
Checklist of Risks and Treatments to Reduce Violence
Risk Effect Size Treatments With Known Empirical Effectiveness ROIs
1 Poor executive function 1.59 Cognitive behavior therapy in community or jail $98.09
2 Low social maturity 1.21 Juvenile interagency coordination program for high risk
offenders
3 Weapon possession conviction 1.10 Adult job in community or jail $22.64
4 Violent family 0.83 Juvenile diversion program with anger management (25%)
or mentor (25%)
5 Gang membership / participation 0.70 Pre-kindergarten education for low income 3- to 4-year-olds
$20.57
6 Male gender 0.63 Adult community drug treatment for high risk or
offenders
7 Underachievement 0.57 Nurse family partnership for children—training of high
risk mothers
8 Illness 0.57 Juvenile anger or aggression replacement training $16.34
9 Prior court contact 0.54 Juvenile functional family therapy for high risk,
probationer, or jailed
10 Alcohol and substance abuse 0.52 Adult vocational education for high risk, paroled, or jailed $11.62
11 Low socioeconomic status 0.50 Juvenile foster care multidimensional treatment vs. regular
group care
12 Substance abuse 0.44 Adult basic high school general education (Graduate
Equivalency Diploma) for high risk, paroled, or jailed
13 Neurological disorder 0.43 Adult community job and training $10.90
14 Alcohol abuse 0.41 Juvenile teen courts $9.83
15 Head injury 0.37 Juvenile restorative justice for high risk students or low
risk offenders
16 Truancy, suspension, expulsion 0.33 Juvenile multi-systematic therapy $4.27
Note Eff ect sizes are from regressions predicting violence in Zagar and colleagues' fi ve groups. ROI = return on investment. Eff ect
size is the diff erence between means divided by the pooled standard deviation ( Hedges & Olkin, 1985 ); 0.2 is considered small, 0.5 is
medium, 0.8 is large, and 1.7 is very large ( J. Cohen, 1988 ). ROIs are from Washington State Policy Institute (1999).
ing mass murders like that at Sandy Hook, Connecticut,
in 2012 (Federal Bureau of Investigation, 2012; National
Institute of Corrections, 2012). Clearly, despite the high
costs of hospitals, the most dangerous of these individu-als
should be identifi ed for treatment to protect the com-munity,
saving the extreme costs of large-scale violence.
It is clear that any identifi cation system cannot depend
on subjective assessment by psychiatrists or psycholo-gists:
in meta-analyses, Grove, Zald, Lebow, Snitz, and
Nelson (2000 ) reported that in 130 of 136 studies, the sta-tistical
(actuarial) predictions were at least 10% better
than a professional's subjective judgment.
Among off enders, the lifetime costs are higher for
the homicidal and the career off ender, as seen in Fig. 3 .
Specifi cally, adult prison costs average approximately
$30,000 per inmate and juvenile jail $70,000 per inmate.
Electronic monitoring costs approximately $2,500 per
year to supervise parolees, probationers, and prisoners
in their homes, as an inexpensive alternative to prison
for the non-violent. Given the costs of homicide, it is
well identifying those at risk for violence. Computer
testing (about $350 U.S.) via the internet is the least
$25.03
$21.24
$17.92
$17.49
$13.69
$11.20
$11.09
$8.03
expensive option and represents a savings of about 90%
less than full neuropsychiatric evaluation. A brief paper
test costs about $700, a long test $1,000, a psycho-educa-tional
assessment $1,200, a full case study in the schools
$1,600, and a neuropsychological evaluation $2,000. With
price dictating utility, a clear option is for agencies to use
the 24/7 internet availability of a computer test battery
based on an accurate predictive regression equation
to identify the at-risk, and then to employ prevention
strategies or lowest-cost treatments. The other issue
that professors who teach statistical (actuarial) test-ing
acknowledge is that clinicians do not employ tests
in dealing with mentally ill patients, despite the data
showing that judgment is fallible. From both a lifetime
cost and community safety perspective, accurate regres-sion
or statistical (actuarial) testing and targeting treat-ment
makes economic and practical sense.
Limitations
Researchers debate the accuracy of actuarial decision-making
tests for risk of violence. Typically they cite issues
of false negatives and positives and their associated costs.
Comprehensive Psychology 7 2013, Volume 2, Article 6
9. Treatment of Violence-prone Youth / R. J. Zagar, et al.
Fig. 3. At-risk students' lifetime costs in millions of 2012 dol-lars.
Based on the 1990–1992 National Crime Victim Survey,
updated to 2012 U.S. Dollars with the regional Consumer
Price Index (2012) and adapted from Cohen and Miller (1994)
and Cohen (1995) .
Due to the stakes of over- and under-identifi cation, preci-sion
is central to any debate of risk appraisal. Given the
improved accuracy from regression modeling, concern
about over- and under-identifi cation is reduced. The valid-ity
of the set of unique risk factors identifi ed using boot-strapped
regression techniques in fi ve samples challenges
objections to risk appraisal. The prediction of violence and
homicide is practical, reliable, valid, and generalizable.
Analyses comparing the fi ve samples with the demo-graphics
of the E.U. and U.S. populations suggest that the
cross-validated and replicated risks for homicide are gen-eralizable
to those broad areas.
There were, of course, limitations and threats to
validity. There may be issues with the experiment of
nearly 5,000 high school students in that there was not
true random sampling; in any such study, there are
validity threats due to history, selection, and expec-tancy
bias. Offi cial records may not accurately represent
the amount of abuse, delinquency, crime, or other risks.
There may be some bias in refusal or enlistment into the
Culture of Calm. The samples were the largest on homi-cidally
violent youth available, yet still small. Perhaps
other risks may be observed in larger samples, although
the literature review of 80 years of risk patterns was
consistent with the risks identifi ed and cross-validated
in the fi ve samples. There was heterogeneity of vari-ance
on some measures or risks, although for most risks
the assumptions of normality and homogeneity of vari-ance
were met. With over 60 years of successful empiri-cal
treatments, some with 27% to 35% diversion rates, it
seems reasonable to accept any threats to validity and
reliability of actuarial testing, since demonstrably lives
and costs were saved.
It is not acceptable to identify homicide-prone behav-ior
proactively and intervene in a manner that limits indi-viduals'
constitutional freedoms. But one can predict and
prevent violence by applying empirical treatments and
interventions to youths through the public schools or
through employee assistance and other health interven-tions
Fig. 4. Low (■), middle (■) and high (■) estimated annual costs
of treatment and electronic monitoring, jail, and hospitaliza-tion
in U.S. 2012 dollars, based on U.S. Department of Agri-culture
(1994 ), Cohen (1995 ), Zagar, Zagar, Bartikowski, and
Busch (2009 ), National Institute of Corrections (2012 ), and the
Consumer Price Index (2012) in the U.S. Bureau of Labor Sta-tistics
(2013 ).
for adults. Confi dence in the legality and practical
utility of this approach should be high now that actu-arial
identifi cation combined with empirical treatments
has been applied with federal funding in a large urban
center ( Saulny, 2009 ; Shelton & Banchero, 2009 ). Provid-ing
decision makers with actuarial data about individu-als
at entry to high school, university, or workplace and
applying age-appropriate empirical treatments can not
only divert individuals from a career of delinquency and
crime, but also lower violence. Information sharing and
the universal use of mathematical modeling, testing, and
targeting treatments does save lives and costs and could
save much more if widely applied.
Conclusions
The approach of targeting limited resources to violence-preventive
interventions is demonstrably the most cost-eff
ective way to reduce murder and assault. Keeping
youths out of courts predictably occurs in 25% to 37%
of targeted and treated individuals, but the rate could
be higher if treatments were combined. Without actuar-ial
testing, there will be over- or under-identifi cation of
those prone to violent crime, resulting in fatalities, vio-lations
of civil rights, and other negative outcomes. The
use of treatments with less than 25% diversion rates and
“threat assessment” without empirical evidence should
be avoided.
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