Presentation by Dr Claire Heffernan at the Star-Idaz workshop: Meeting Future Research Needs on Infectious Diseases of Animals and Zoonoses – A Global Foresight Exercise 17 – 20 June, Moscow, Russia

1. pathways to the future
!
!
Claire Heffernan
c.l.heffernan@reading.ac.uk
STAR-IDAZ: Infectious Diseases of Animals/
Zoonosis: a global foresight exercise
17 – 20 June, 2014
Moscow, Russia

2. • a probable future: predictive scenarios
• a possible future: explorative scenarios
• a preferable future: normative scenarios
!

3. The distinguishing characteristic of backcasting
is…explicitly normative, involving working
backwards from a particular desirable future
end-point to the present…to determine the
physical feasibility of that future and what policy
measures [are] required.
(Robinson,1996)
!

4. backcasting
• the vision?
• impediments vs. enablers?
• pathways to meet the vision?
!

5. the oracle of delphi

6. ‘new thought’
movement
• late 19th and early 20th century
• positive thoughts of the future
• thoughts and beliefs as cosmic entities
!

7. global health alliances

8. • the research-base
• beliefs about outcomes
• collective action: funding and political will

9. Sustainable livestock production, with
healthy animals reared under high
welfare standards, disease outbreaks
minimised or rapidly contained,
ensuring a safe and secure food supply.
Madrid: the vision

10. sustainability
• a value rather than a
context
• notions change over
time
!

11. barriers
Panzootics
Social Forces
Resource
Scarcity
Animal Health
Cost of Control
Disease
Reservoirs
Feed/Food
Conflict
Sector
Sustainability
Lack of Indicators
Land Use
Change
Surveillance
Pathogen
Evolution
Water
Availability
Cost of Energy
Farm Sizes
Feed Imports
Subsidies
War/Famine
Activists Lack of WTP
Vested
Interest
Lack of Public
Awareness
Pollution
EU Expansion

12. enablers
Policy
Networks/
Approaches
Investment Trade
PP partnerships
Control
Disease
CAP
Research Social
One Health
Systems
Harmonisation
Traceability
Technologies
Education
Science

13. research & capacity
building
Research to alleviate !
barriers
Research to optimise !
enablers
Collection, harmonisation, utilisation of existing data!
Greater investment in research networks!
Improving traceability/surveillance!
Increase knowledge of the environmental drivers that we can control
and manage.!
!
Greater investment in research
networks
Surveillance, early detection and early warning!
Better understanding of public perception, decision-making!
Increase knowledge of the environmental drivers!
Water quality
Optimising traceability &
surveillance networks
Vector control !
Monitoring of vector population!
Genetics of resistance of host/ resistance of local breeds!
Low cost diagnostics and diagnostic platforms, pen-side test !
Health implications of alternative feeds!
!
Optimal environmental conditions for control of pathogens such as
campylobacter.!
Coherent integrated farm energy supply/management, optimal
balance between energy use and energy production

14. the new vision
• animal disease minimised or rapidly
contained ensuring a safe and secure food
supply
!

15. the approach
1. What elements are different between our
vision and today?
2. What are the steps needed to meet this
vision?
3. What is the knowledge/research required to
meet this vision?

16. the present vs.
the future
changes required:
• to the economic/social/environmental
context?
• to the ‘knowledge’ environment?
• to the policy environment?

17. the steps
• creating a time-line
• identifying key events
• barriers vs. enablers
• quick scanning the research
required
!

18. the time-line
2014 2050?changing
consumer
demand
resource
scarcity
rise in global
temperature
increase
in EIDs
decline in
global
livestock
population
artificial
milk/meat

19. barriers and enablers
!
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Out&of&our&
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20. scanning:
research & capacity
!
• livestock vs. non-livestock-related
• blue-sky (basic) vs. applied
• knowledge-sharing networks
• specific to the time-line events/region

21. outcomes
1. define key factors that will support or
inhibit our vision of sustainable disease
control/livestock production.
2. identify key areas of research/capacity/
building/knowledge transfer to support the
vision going into the future
!