Analyzing European Citizens’ Attitudes towards European politics
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Analyzing European public database to answer defined behavioural hypotheses. Data source: eurostat / ec.europa.eu (2018) A group project by Arpita BANTWAL, Cameron MAURY, Edem DUKE and Yash-Mahendra JOSHI (students from ESC Clermont Business School, MSc. Business Intelligence & Analytics)
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Analyzing European Citizens’ Attitudes towards European politics
- 1. SUBJECT 4 : ATTITUDES TOWARDS POLITICS OF EUROPEAN CITIZEN. SPSS Presentation Arpita Cameron Edem Yash
- 3. DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS KEY FACTS ABOUT THE DATASET: • 32 COUNTRIES IN TOTAL • 18 WESTERN EUROPE • 12 EASTERN EUROPE Note: we removed Israel and Turkey from the analyses. A project, worked through step-by-step: Started by cleaning datasets, Categorizing variable types, Performed descriptive statistics on all 30 European countries, Performed the following types of analysis: Independent T-samples test One-way ANOVA Chart builder Non-parametric tests > Chi-Square Non-parametric tests > Mac-Whitney Test Hierarchic clustering Dimension reduction > principle factors analysis Linear regression Bayesian statistics > Pearson correlation
- 4. HYPOTHESIS – ONE – H0 – People DO NOT spend more time watching current affairs on TV, than reading newspapers about politics or listening to radio on average weekdays, in eastern and western European countries. H1 – People spend more time watching current affairs on TV, than reading newspapers about politics or listening to radio on average weekdays, in eastern and western European countries. Dependent variables: Time spent in hours watching TV Time spent in hours listening to the radio on current affairs Time spent reading newspapers on politics.
- 8. TIME SPENT LEARNING ABOUT POLITICS, BY COUNTRY (WEST EUROPE)
- 9. TIME SPENT LEARNING ABOUT POLITICS, BY COUNTRY (EAST EUROPE)
- 10. HYPOTHESIS – ONE – H0 – People DO NOT spend more time watching current affairs on TV, than reading newspapers about politics or listening to radio on average weekdays, in eastern and western European countries. H1 – People spend more time watching current affairs on TV, than reading newspapers about politics or listening to radio on average weekdays, in eastern and western European countries. Dependent variables: Time spent in hours watching TV Time spent in hours listening to the radio on current affairs Time spent reading newspapers on politics.
- 11. HYPOTHESIS – TWO – H0 – There is NO difference between eastern and western European countries in time spent making mind up about political issues. H1 – There is a difference between eastern and western European countries in time spent making mind up about political issues. Dependent variables: How interested in politics Politics too complicated to understand Making mind up on political issues
- 13. HOW INTERESTED ARE WESTERN EUROPEANS IN POLITICS?
- 14. HOW INTERESTED ARE EASTERN EUROPEANS IN POLITICS?
- 15. HYPOTHESIS – TWO – H0 – There is NO large difference between eastern and western European countries in time spent making mind up about political issues. H1 – There is a difference between eastern and western European countries in time spent making mind up about political issues. Dependent variables: How interested in politics Politics too complicated to understand Making mind up on political issues
- 16. HYPOTHESIS – THREE – H0 – There is NO impact of reading newspapers and watching TV on trust in European parliament. H1 – There is an impact of reading newspapers and watching TV on trust in European parliament. Predictors: Newspaper reading Radio listening Dependent variables: Trust in the European Parliament ?
- 17. WHAT IS THE EFFECT OF READING NEWSPAPERS AND WATCHING TV ON TRUST IN EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT (CALCULATED ON 300 000+ ENTRIES) No effect !
- 18. HYPOTHESIS – THREE – H0 – There is NO impact of reading newspapers and watching TV on trust in European parliament. H1 – There is an impact of reading newspapers and watching TV on trust in European parliament. Predictors: Newspaper reading Radio listening Dependent variables: Trust in the European Parliament
- 19. HYPOTHESIS – FOUR – H0 – Trust in all types of political and legal institutions can be explained by trust in country’s parliament. H1 – Trust in all types of political and legal institutions CAN NOT be explained largely by trust in countries’ parliament. Dependent variables: Trust in the European Parliament Trust in the country’s parliament Trust in the legal system Trust in politicians Trust in political parties ?
- 20. WESTERN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES :TRUST IN POLITICS
- 21. EASTERN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES :TRUST IN POLITICS
- 23. MOST IMPORTANT FACTORS FOR INTEREST IN POLITICS: CORRELATION MATRIX FOR FACTOR ANALYSIS
- 24. (2)
- 25. HYPOTHESIS – FOUR – H0 – Trust in all types of political and legal institutions can be explained by trust in country’s parliament. H1 – Trust in all types of political and legal institutions CAN NOT be explained largely by trust in countries’ parliament. Dependent variables: Trust in the European Parliament Trust in the country’s parliament Trust in the legal system Trust in politicians Trust in political parties
- 26. HYPOTHESIS – FIVE – H0: There is NO difference in types of trust in politics between small countries like Finland and large countries like France. H1: There is a difference in types of trust in politics between small countries like Finland and large countries like France. Predictors: Country Dependent variables: Trust in the European Parliament Trust in the country’s parliament Trust in the legal system Trust in politicians Trust in political parties
- 27. FINLAND VS FRANCE – TRUST IN POLITICS EUCLIDEAN DISTANCE MODEL
- 28. FINLAND VS FRANCE – TRUST IN POLITICS SCATTERPLOT OF LINEAR FIT
- 29. HYPOTHESIS – FIVE – H0: There is NO difference in types of trust in politics between small countries like Finland and large countries like France. H1: There is a difference in types of trust in politics between small countries like Finland and large countries like France. Predictors: Country Dependent variables: Trust in the European Parliament Trust in the country’s parliament Trust in the legal system Trust in politicians Trust in political parties
- 30. H0 – There is NO impact of gender in the ability to participate in politics. H1 – There is an impact of gender in the ability to participate in politics. Predictors: Gender Dependent variables: Confidence in own ability to participate in politics Ability to take active role in political group How satisfied with the way democracy works in country HYPOTHESIS – SIX –
- 33. H0 – There is NO impact of gender in the ability to participate in politics. H1 – There is an impact of gender in the ability to participate in politics. Predictors: Gender Dependent variables: Confidence in own ability to participate in politics Ability to take active role in political group How satisfied with the way democracy works in country HYPOTHESIS – SIX –
- 34. H0 – There is NO impact of citizenship in the ability to participate in politics. H1 – There is an impact of citizenship in the ability to participate in politics. Predictors: Citizenship Dependent variables: Confidence in own ability to participate in politics Ability to take active role in political group HYPOTHESIS – SEVEN –
- 36. H0 – There is NO impact of citizenship in the ability to participate in politics. H1 – There is an impact of citizenship in the ability to participate in politics. Predictors: Citizenship Dependent variables: Confidence in own ability to participate in politics Ability to take active role in political group HYPOTHESIS – SEVEN –
- 37. ANALYSIS SUMMARY Topic reminder: Attitudes towards politics of European Citizen. H1 – People spend more time watching current affairs on TV, than reading newspapers about politics or listening to radio on average weekdays, in eastern and western European countries. H2 – There is NO difference between eastern and western European countries in time spent making mind up about political issues. H3 – There is NO impact of reading newspapers and watching TV on trust in European parliament. H4 – Trust in all types of political and legal institutions can be explained by trust in country’s parliament. H5 – There is a difference in types of trust in politics between small countries like Finland and large countries like France. H6 – There is an impact of gender in the ‘ability to participate in politics’. H7 – There is an impact of citizenship in the ‘ability to participate in politics’.
Editor's Notes
- H0 is correct – People spend more time watching TV
- Mean is 2 – Half and hour to one hour per day. Histogram chart zwith Normal distribution plot
- Mean is 1 – less than half an hour per day
- Mean is also 1 ; . Histogram chart zwith Normal distribution plot
- H0 is correct – People spend more time watching TV
- H0; there is no difference
- There is significance at 2 tail Politics and making mind up about political issues are closely similar
- H0; there is no difference. We have plotted the variables on the graphs (dependent on the countries) and assessed its distribution.
- H0 is correct – there is no impact. We ran a regression (linear) to test the effect on trust in european parliament
- R² is 0,002 – there is absolutely no effect / nor explanatory power of the model
- H0 is correct – there is no impact. We ran a regression (linear) to test the effect on trust in european parliament
- H0 is true – trust in countries parliament largely explains trust in all types of political and legal institutions. It explains 70% of the variance. We then ran a reliability statistical analysis and the Cronbach’s Alpha was almost 0,9 (which means it is extremely reliable).
- Therefore we decided to look at the diffèrent types of trust in détail for western european countries.
- Therefore we decided to look at the diffèrent types of trust in détail for western european countries.
- *Seperate the slides* H0 is true – trust in countries parliament largely explains trust in all types of political and legal institutions. It explains 70% of the variance. We then ran a reliability statistical analysis and the Cronbach’s Alpha was almost 0,9 (which means it is extremely reliable).
- How interested in politics; How close to party; How satisfied with national government were signficant; Age was not such a good predictor We ran a factor analysis and these variables were the most significant. The 3 factors explain 68% of the variance (which means that these 3 factors were the most important in finding out what makes people interested in politics). We could have improved the KMO test by excluding age from the analysis.
- How satisfied with national government; with How satisfied with way democracy works How interested in politics; with How close to party Confident in own ability to participate in politcs; Political system. We have plotted the cube on 3 dimensions and we can see that there are certain factors that are pretty correlated to each other. These combined variables above verifies the previous statement. We also plotted the Component Score Coefficient Matrix
- H0 is true – trust in countries parliament largely explains trust in all types of political and legal institutions. It explains 70% of the variance. We then ran a reliability statistical analysis and the Cronbach’s Alpha was almost 0,9 (which means it is extremely reliable).
- Finland population = 5,5 million habitant France population = 67,1 million habitant
- FINLAND Trust in Parliament is not closely related to Trust in European parliament or legal Disparities largely follow a linear pattern Clustering analysis and making scatter plots of linear fit to identifiy potential clusters and disparities between the different components of trust.
- FRANCE Trust in Parliament is closely related to Trust in European parliament There is a wider disparity in political preference , simply because it is larger:
- Finland population = 5,5 million habitant France population = 67,1 million habitant
- H1 is true -
- H1 is true -
- H0 is correct – there is no impact. We ran a regression (linear) to test the effect on trust in european parliament
- H1 is true -
- H1 is true -
- H1 is true -
- The only times the null hypothesis was not rejected was hypothesis 2 and 3.