1. Improving the Forecast System & Process – Vivian Liu
Historical Data:
Forecast
Accuracy & Key
Metrics
Efficiency:
Documentation
& Automation
Future Data:
Forecast Feed &
Statistical Guides
Customer Feed Accuracy
Aligned customer feed for Cisco against POS
and Backlog to analyze trends and anomalies
in customer feed
Discovered one of our largest customer’s
behavior and bias to better forecast accuracy,
reduce inventory, and increase revenue
Documentation of Processes
Systematized Forecast Accuracy
Computation procedure to aid its automation
and guide supply chain employees
Compiled a Glossary of Terms to help
newcomers become acclimated to Altera’s
acronym-filled vocabulary
Automation of Forecast Accuracy
Created automation requirements to make the
system compute forecast accuracy quarterly
at the levels desired
Will cut a few days’ worth of time per quarter
in automating this time-consuming, tedious,
and error-prone calculation
Wrote VBA macros to automate the cleaning
of raw data into consolidation-ready data
Statistical Forecasts
Implemented various statistical models in
Demand Manager to improve forecasting
Started statistical CAT3&4-specific
forecasting, previously done by trending
Q1 & Q2 Forecast Accuracy
Calculated 2 quarters’ forecast accuracy at
multiple levels and slices
Updated charts and presentations
Contributed the bias metric and analysis
Analyzed the difference between the Future
Consensus Forecast (DPG) and the
Bottoms Up Forecast (Sales)
Safety Stock Recommendations
Revised statistical formula to determine
safety stock levels
Computed and provided bias data and cycle
time by die group data