The document discusses strategies for dealing with transient technologies in higher education institutions. It notes that the speed of technological change and the lifespan of technologies are both shortening dramatically. It suggests that while specific technologies of the future cannot be predicted, trends like big data, voice recognition, and wearable devices will likely continue. However, universities tend to resist change and lack agility to respond quickly. The document advocates for more agile development approaches that allow for flexibility and rapid iteration. It also recommends empowering departments and individuals to experiment with new technologies in a "just in time" training model.

1. TEL strategies for transient technologies
Colin Loughlin
University of Surrey
Department of Technology Enhanced Learning

2. Abstract
‘In turbulent times success, and sometimes survival, depend upon the ability to distinguish between what is
changing and what is staying the same‘ (Goodyear & Retalis, 2010, p.1).
Moore’s Law (1965) states that computer processing power will double every year, the pace of change in gene
sequencing has followed a similar path: ‘It took us 15 years to sequence HIV […] now we can sequence Sars in
31 days’ (Kurzweil in Sutherland, 2005). However what appears to be a stable linear development is actually
exponential and, while few suggest that the speed of change will increase indefinitely, we are in a period of
unprecedented technological transformation. ‘The Velocity of Innovation has increased dramatically [and] is itself
a key variable in the velocity of obsolescence’ (Jensen, 2014). Development and product lifecycles have reduced
significantly in recent years. For instance vinyl records remained the primary medium for listening to music for
over fifty years, CDs were dominant for just twenty years and digital downloads of music - sales of which only
recently overtook CDs, are already in decline. The development-to-obsolescence lifespan of technological
innovation is shortening, as is the speed of adoption. CDs took ten years to establish themselves, iTunes just two.
The adoption of new technologies is becoming viral in nature; difficult to predict and impossible to control.
Kurzweil (2005) forecast that we would be in the ‘knee of the exponential curve’ in 2014 and, thus at the point of
‘explosive growth’ (ibid) in technological innovation. Ironically, despite housing departments which are the
seedbeds of research and development, Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) are ill-equipped to deal with rapid
change. Institutional infrastructures and procedures lack agility and may struggle to respond to technologies which
come and go in less than five years.
In this presentation we will explore some of the challenges facing HEIs and offer alternative visions. Hiding behind
the ‘walled garden’ will not protect universities from a tidal-wave of technological change. Whilst it may not be
possible to predict exactly which software or hardware we will be using in five years time, there are underlying
trends such as geo-location, big data, voice-recognition and wearable technology which are likely to form part of
that future; additionally, emerging phenomena such as citizen science could transform entire disciplines. The
challenge therefore is to avoid the mire of redundancy while facilitating an ‘edgeless university’, allowing future
innovation to permeate and flourish.

3. The tea-towel plays music…
Play music though the tea-towel and win a prize!

4. What are transient technologies?
All technologies are transient; eventually we find a
better/cheaper/easier way of doing things:
• Letterpress gave way to lithography
• Steam trains gave way to electric
• Valve to transistor radios
So what’s new?
The speed at which these changes are taking place.

5. Time to mass adoption…
http://www.singularity.com/charts/

6. Transition periods
Vinyl dominated the music industry for 60
years, the transition to CDs took 10 years.
CDs reigned for only 20 years and the
transition to iTunes took just 2 years…
… less than two years after that, iTunes is in
decline, with music streaming taking over.

7. Singularity – Ray Kurzweil
http://www.singularity.com/charts/page50.html
Kurzweil says by the year 2045: progress will be so rapid it outstrips
humans' ability to comprehend it.

8. Speed of technological development in computing
http://www.singularity.com/charts/

9. Solar Panels
2012 :
3D PV-cel
with 30%
more energy
efficiency
http://www.singularity.com/charts/

10. Source: Cisco systems
The number of devices
connected to IP networks
will be more than three
times the global
population by 2019

11. How does this affect HE
Two areas of potential impact:
• New things or applications, or things used in new ways that come from left
field.
• Stuff that’s been around a while that suddenly becomes ubiquitous.
The nature of exponential development means that technology can be around a
long time before it becomes an overnight success.
Things change when it becomes:
Cheap, Reliable, Easy

12. The Future?

13. Institutional attitudes
The four stages of acceptance
Ignorance
Irrelevance
Important (but not for us)
I always told you so
All truth passes through three stages. First, it is ridiculed. Second, it is
violently opposed. Third, it is accepted as being self-evident.
—
Arthur Schopenhauer, German philosopher (1788 – 1860)

15. What all this leads to is resistence…
‘Resistance seem[s] to be an inevitable outcome of even the smallest
and least controversial of innovations […] It permeate[s] all aspects of
the implementation’ (Bryant, 2014).
‘If you’re not going to support the technology, then don’t put it in the classroom. It’s
worse than not having it.’
Bill Lewis, Arizona State University (JISC - https://www.jisc.ac.uk/guides/learning-spaces/evaluating-use-of-technology)

16. Agile development
Assumption that ‘problems are fully specifiable, and that
an optimal and predictable solution exists for every
problem’
Agile development is ‘characterized by social inquiry in
which extensive collaboration and communication
provide the basis for collective action. Diverse
stakeholders […] go through repeated cycles of thought-
action-reflection that foster an environment of learning
and adaptation. Team members, empowered with more
discretionary and decision-making powers, are not
confined to a specialized role. This increases the
diversity/variety of the teams and enables them to self-
organize and respond with alacrity to emergent
situations.’
‘Agile methodologies require a shift from command-and
control management to leadership-and-collaboration.
The organizational form that facilitates this shift needs
the right blend of autonomy and cooperation to achieve
the advantages of synergy while providing flexibility and
responsiveness’

17. Agile development
‘aspects of universities […] are typically expected to persist for years,
decades, even centuries. This very persistence can be one reason why
university structures have been set up to be rather slow, un-agile and
rather risk averse.’
Uniformity vrs individuality
‘A substantial part of an agile team-leader’s role is identifying and
removing barriers to a team being able to do its job.’
Continuity vrs agility
‘A software project is delivered and done. Yes it may be revised, but this is
treated as a new project.’

18. Strategy for transient technologies
Institutional strategy
Agile based approach
tech projects have rolling iterations
open/porous networks
allow for flexibility
Department strategy
provide ‘just in time’ training
encourage and support use of non-core technologies
allow autonomy
Examples
Remove admin only access to intuitional machines
Enable full functionality of existing software (wordpress)
End one size fits all, PC image (always out of date and clunky)

19. Thank You!
c.loughlin@surrey.ac.uk

20. References
Goodyear, P. & Retalis, S. (2010) Technology-enhanced learning: design patterns and pattern
languages. Rotterdam; Boston, Sense Publishers.
Jensen (2014) Positive Rate of Climb - A Blog by Troy Jensen. [Online]. Available from:
http://positiverateofclimb.blogspot.co.uk/ [Accessed: 12 March 2015].
Kurzweil, R. (2005) The singularity is near: when humans transcend biology. New York, Viking.
Sutherland, J. (2005) The ideas interview: Ray Kurzweil. [Online]. 2005. the Guardian. Available
from: http://www.theguardian.com/science/2005/nov/21/academicexperts.elearning [Accessed: 12
March 2015].