A discussion of Agile using a sailing analogy

1. Agile for Project Managers
A sailor's look at Agile
John C Goodpasture, PMP
Managing Principal
Square Peg Consulting, LLC
1
A production of Square Peg Consulting, LLC

2. Agile and Sailing?
Really?
Ok, let's get started!
Photo: US Navy
2
A production of Square Peg Consulting, LLC

3. Begin with Small Teams
✦ Crew collaboration vital
✦ Instinctive action without direct commands
✦ Risks
managed real-
time
Photo: US Navy
3
A production of Square Peg Consulting, LLC

4. About Scope
✦Scope:
❖Every sailor tries
to 'make the mark'
❖'Mark' is a terminal
point
❖'Mark' is the
sailor's objective
❖'Mark' is the
sponsor's
expectation
4
A production of Square Peg Consulting, LLC

5. Lay-line is the back-log plan
✦Most efficient course
from start to 'mark'
✦Analogous to project
'planned value' PV
✦Sailing the 'lay line'
accumulates value
✦The lay-line is the
'backlog'
5
A production of Square Peg Consulting, LLC

6. Wind is a source of energy
✦Motive energy for the boat
[project]
✦Source of risks and
unknowns
✦Represents [also]
stakeholder biases,
attitudes, and pressures
✦Complex and unpredictable
6
A production of Square Peg Consulting, LLC

7. It all interacts
✦Boat-sails-rigging: methodology and
practices
✦Wind: energy, risks
✦‘Mark‘: scope and sponsor expectations
✦Lay-line: back-log & plan to make the 'mark'
7
A production of Square Peg Consulting, LLC

8. Benchmarks forecast velocity
✦Velocity [through the water]
creates 'throughput'
✦Throughput is "miles sailed" on
the lay-line
✦"Miles sailed" are like 'story points'
8
A production of Square Peg Consulting, LLC

9. Tack to the mark
✦Short performance
increments [time box]
✦Tactical response to
circumstances
✦ Some variance to the
plan [lay-line]
9
A production of Square Peg Consulting, LLC

10. From energy to value
✦Maximize energy from favorable wind
✦Apply wind energy to create velocity
✦Measure velocity along the lay-line
✦Accumulate value by distance sailed on the
lay-line
10
A production of Square Peg Consulting, LLC

11. Accumulate earned value
✦The lay-line is the value plan
✦Multiple segments laid in tandem
✦Sail as close to the line as possible
✦All value is earned when the buoy is reached
11
A production of Square Peg Consulting, LLC

12. Benchmark units of performance
✦ Velocity x time = performance
unit
❖ Example: 8 NM in 1 hour = 8
knots performance
❖1 hour is analogous to a Time
Box
❖ Nautical mile [NM] analogous to
a story point
Photo: City of Baltimore
12
A production of Square Peg Consulting, LLC

13. 3-point Estimate
✦Most Optimistic Outlook:
✦Sail the lay-line
✦Most Pessimistic Outlook:
✦Sail across the lay-line
✦Most Likely Outcome:
✦Estimate real-time conditions
13
A production of Square Peg Consulting, LLC

14. Most Pessimistic Outlook
✦Wind [risk] directly opposes the boat [project]
✦Least energy available in the direction of the lay-line
✦Strategy:
✦Find energy ‘off axis’ [evolution]
✦Tack [incremental performance] back and forth across the
lay-line
14
A production of Square Peg Consulting, LLC

15. Progress on the lay-line
✦ Most Pessimistic Outlook
❖2 units of input [time box increments] yield
1.4 units of output [requirements done]
❖Output / Input = 0.7
❖Input / Output = 1.43
Input
increments Output:
1.4 units projected
along the lay-line
15
A production of Square Peg Consulting, LLC

16. What does it mean?
✦Input not resulting in Output:
✦ Unmet requirements
✦ Effort [input] exceeds actual value delivered
✦Unmet requirements addressed in next
increment
✦ Backlog is dynamic
✦Entire lay-line: all requirements are met
16
A production of Square Peg Consulting, LLC

17. Monte Carlo inputs
✦Most Optimistic Outlook: 1
✦Most Pessimistic Outlook: 1.43
✦Most Likely Outlook: Real time estimate
Photo: John Goodpasture 17
A production of Square Peg Consulting, LLC

18. Cost
✦Expected number of performance units
❖From Monte Carlo
✦Cost per performance unit
❖Crew and boat
❖Unit cost
✦Expected cost = Expected units x Unit cost
18
A production of Square Peg Consulting, LLC

19. Schedule
✦Expected performance
units
❖Expected unit efficiency
✦Effective time made along
the lay-line
❖Units x unit efficiency
❖Hours per efficiency-weighted
units
Photo: US NIST
19
A production of Square Peg Consulting, LLC

20. Schedule Example
Planning metrics
– 40 NM lay-line
– 8 Knot performance unit
Most pessimistic outlook:
– Input = 1.43 x Output
– Input = 57 NM
– Time required = 57 / 8 = 7.2 hours
A production of Square Peg Consulting, LLC

21. Manage Scale
✦Managing scale is analogous to managing the
fleet
✦Each boat is a team
✦Each boat is a node in a network
✦Each boat maintains situational awareness
Photo: Nicoyogui on flickr
21
A production of Square Peg Consulting, LLC

22. Rolling Wave
✦Boats on the leading edge of the fleet relay
'over the horizon' information to others
✦Far out lay-lines planned as approached
✦Adjustments made for obstructions and wind
shifts
22
A production of Square Peg Consulting, LLC

23. There's more
✦A textbook for enterprise
Agile
❖The business case
❖The plan
❖Earned Value
❖Teams
❖and more.....
23
A production of Square Peg Consulting, LLC

24. Thank you for viewing
johngoodpasture.com
sqpegconsulting.com
24
A production of Square Peg Consulting, LLC

25. ❖John sailed with the Eau Gallie
Yacht Club, Eau Gallie, FL
A production of Square Peg Consulting, LLC

26. A production of
Square Peg Consulting, LLC
sqpegconsulting.com
26
A production of Square Peg Consulting, LLC