Agile for project managers - a sailing analogy-UPDATE

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An analogy with sailing to explain agile project management

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Agile for project managers - a sailing analogy-UPDATE

  1. 1. Agile for Project Managers A sailor’s look at Agile A presentation for 2012 GE Agile Conference Produced by Square Peg Consulting, LLC Orlando, Florida USA www.sqpegconsulting.com Photo: US NavyCopyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved 1
  2. 2. Agile and Sailing? Really? Photo: US Navy So, lets get started!Copyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved 2
  3. 3. Every sail (project) begins with a plan• Opportunity• Vision• Narrative• Constraints• Resources Chart: US NOAA Copyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved 3
  4. 4. Recruit a small team (crew) Redundancy among crew (team) Crew master (captain) takes the helm Instinctive action without direct commands Proven protocols and practices Photo: US Navy Copyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved 4
  5. 5. Commitment to the team Every sailor— individually and collectively—is committed Copyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved 5
  6. 6. Trust from shared experience Collaboration and trust— unconditionally Copyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved 6
  7. 7. One for all …. No individual success without collective success Copyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved 7
  8. 8. Define scope (narrative): sail for the marks Prospective, strategic, top down: Customer (sponsor) intones: ‘Make the marks’ Retrospective, tactical, bottom up: Team commits to Best value— the most—and the most important—that can be accomplished Gap? Photo US NOAA Copyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved Photo: US Navy 8
  9. 9. Close the prospective—retrospective gap Take a risk! Crew master (captain) is the ultimate risk manager  Maintains a mental image of the risk register  Works the response plan real- time Photo US NOAA Copyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved Photo: US Navy 9
  10. 10. From narrative to architecture Naval architect drives the strategic distribution of marks Captain is the architect of the tactics Photo US Naval Academy Copyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved 10
  11. 11. Embrace change! But… marks are updated, added new, or even deleted from time to time Copyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved 11
  12. 12. Lay-line is the plan Lay-line: most efficient course from “here” to “there” Sailing the ‘lay-line accumulates value Lay-line → ‘planned value’ PV Lay-line → backlog burn- Lay-line down plan Copyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved 12
  13. 13. Lay-line burn-down plan Planned Effort EarnedSegment Lay-line segment Efficiency value burned value (8 knts) Red day marker to Not (1 hour) blinking light started 8 NM Blinking light to green Not 16 NM day marker started ……. Not …to blinking red 10 NM startedLay-line Segment Copyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved 13
  14. 14. Navigation marks (Delivery milestones)Copyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved 14
  15. 15. Wind is a source of energy Motive energy for the boat (project) Source of risks and unknowns Represents (also) stakeholder biases, attitudes, and pressures Complex and sometimes unpredictable Photo US Naval Academy Copyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved 15
  16. 16. Environment: complex and adaptive Boat-sails-rigging: methodology and practices Wind: energy, risks Mark: scope and sponsor expectations Lay-line: back-log & plan to make the ‘mark’ Overall course: architectureComplex: Many structural parts with uncertaininteractions and behaviorsAdaptive: Changes over time to maintain fidelityof expectation Copyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved 16
  17. 17. From energy to value1. Maximize energy from favorable wind2. Apply wind energy to create velocity3. Measure velocity along the lay-line4. Accumulate value by distance sailed on the lay-line Photo US NOAA Accumulated valued (distance): Velocity along the lay-line x elapsed time Copyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved 17
  18. 18. From energy to value8 knots (velocity) x 1 hour (elapsed time)= 8 NM (distance) Photo US NOAA Accumulated valued (distance): Velocity along the lay-line x elapsed time Copyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved 18
  19. 19. Accumulate earned value EV strategy: Sail as close to the lay-line as possible Claim value earned when the mark is reached One segment EV from 1 to 2 Copyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved 19
  20. 20. Tack to the mark Tactical response to circumstances Emergent with the wind Short performance increments (time box) Variance to the planned lay-lineTacking: sailing one direction, and then the other, across thelay-line Copyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved 20
  21. 21. Most pessimistic forecast Wind (risk) directly opposes the boat (project) Least energy available in the direction of the lay-line Strategy:  Find energy ‘off axis’ (evolve the plan)  Tack (incremental performance) across the lay-line Wind Photo US Naval Academy Copyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved 21
  22. 22. Pessimistic progress ❖Example: 2 units of input (increments) 1.4 units of earned value along the lay line Efficiency (Output / Input) = 70% Lay-line Wind (energy and risk) 1 Input 1 Output: increments projected along 1.4 the lay-lineCopyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved 22
  23. 23. Benchmarks forecast velocity Velocity creates throughput Throughput is "miles sailed" on the lay-line "Miles sailed" are like stories completed Copyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved 23
  24. 24. Benchmark units of performance Velocity = performance units per unit of time  Performance Unit (Story point) = Nautical mile (NM)  Unit of time (Time Box) = 1 hour  Example: 8 knots velocity = 8 NM per hourCopyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved 24
  25. 25. Lay-line burn-down EffortSegment Planned Earned Line segment (time) Efficiency Nr value value burned 8 knts 7 knts Red day marker to 1 1 hour 1.5 hr blinking light 8 NM 10.5 NM Blinking light to green In 2 16 NM day marker process ……. Not N …to blinking red 10 NM started Copyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved 25
  26. 26. Lay-line burn-down EffortSegment Planned Earned Line segment (time) Efficiency Nr value value burned 8 knts 7 knts Red day marker to 8/10.5 1 1 hour 1.5 hr 8 NM blinking light 76% 8 NM 10.5 NM Blinking light to green In 2 16 NM day marker process ……. Not N …to blinking red 10 NM started Copyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved 26
  27. 27. Cost estimating with benchmarks1. Backlog (performance units) NM2. Velocity benchmark (units / time) knots3. Unit cost benchmark (cost / time ) Inputs 𝐵𝑎𝑐𝑘𝑙𝑜𝑔Expected cost = ∗ Unit cost 𝑉𝑒𝑙𝑜𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦 Calculation Copyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved 27
  28. 28. Cost estimating example 40𝑁𝑀Expected cost = ∗ $1000 per hour 8 𝑘𝑛𝑡Expected cost = 5 ℎ𝑜𝑢rs ∗ $1000 per hourExpected cost = $5000 Example 𝐵𝑎𝑐𝑘𝑙𝑜𝑔Expected cost = ∗ Unit cost 𝑉𝑒𝑙𝑜𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦 Calculation Copyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved 28
  29. 29. Schedule (earned schedule) Earned schedule: effective time made along the lay-line ES = Total duration x efficiencyEfficiency:effective duration / total duration Photo: US NIST Copyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved 29
  30. 30. Earnable schedule example• Planning metrics – 40 NM lay-line – 8 Knot velocity benchmark – Earnable schedule: 40/8 = 5 hours Photo: J Goodpasture Copyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved 30
  31. 31. Agile schedule heuristicA schedule without slack is a hope, requiringprayer….But it’s unlikely to be an achievable schedule Copyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved 31
  32. 32. Pessimistic schedule example• Most pessimistic forecast: 𝑂𝑢𝑡𝑝𝑢𝑡 – 𝐼𝑛𝑝𝑢𝑡 = 𝐿𝑎𝑦 𝑙𝑖𝑛𝑒 𝑒𝑓𝑓𝑖𝑐𝑖𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑦 = 40 = 57NM 0.7 57 – 𝐷𝑢𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 = = 7.2 ℎ𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑠 8 Copyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved 32
  33. 33. Slack schedule example• Required schedule slack:Pessimistic duration – Earnableschedule7.2 − 5 = 2.2 ℎ𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑠 Copyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved 33
  34. 34. Scale is manageable The fleet has sortied The fleet has sortied! Photo US NavyCopyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved 34
  35. 35. Scale is manageable Vision and strategic direction  Conveyed from the fleet captain Each boat is a self-directing team,  But learns from the performance of others Protocols observed  For communication, sequencing, and coordination Each boat maintains situational awareness Copyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved 35
  36. 36. Rolling wave planning Information relayed to others by boats on the leading edge of the fleet ( over the horizon‘) Far out lay-lines planned as approached Adjustments made for obstructions and wind shifts Copyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved 36
  37. 37. There’s a lot more to know….• Jim Highsmith: “Agile Project Management: Creating innovative products”• Dean Leffingwell: “Agile Software Requirements: Lean requirements practices for Teams, Programs, and the Enterprise”• Mike Cohn: “Agile Estimating and Planning”• Lisa Crispin and Janet Gregory: “Agile Testing: A practical guide for Testers and Agile Teams” Copyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved 37
  38. 38. Read more…Large scale projectsin large scaleorganizations Photo: J. Ross Publishing Copyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved 38
  39. 39. Learn more…PMI® eSeminarsWorldsm instructor• Agile Project Management• Advanced Risk Management and• Understanding Organizational Change 39 Copyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved
  40. 40. Stay in touchJohn C Goodpasture, PMPProgram manager, author, andinstructor info@sqpegconsulting.com johngoodpasture.com 40 Copyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved
  41. 41. All done and ready for questions!Copyright 2012 Square Peg Consultiing LLC, All Rights Reserved 41

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