The document outlines an upcoming training event to prepare attendees for an October 2021 exam. The event will cover any remaining syllabus elements not covered previously, identify weaknesses in knowledge, and help understand what examiners look for to award high marks. The agenda includes discussing current economic conditions like rising inflation and the growth vs. value debate, working through past exam papers in breakout rooms, and addressing questions from attendees. Presentations will focus on shifts in the economy and markets since early 2020, the UK government's challenges around inflation, deficits and stimulus or austerity approaches. Brexit implications on aiming for no tariffs or quotas but potential non-tariff barriers will also be covered.

1. AF4
preparation
day
via Zoom
October 2021 exam
October 5
John Trayner
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2. Course Objectives
• By the end of the event delegates will:
 Understand any remaining elements of the syllabus that were not
covered in the previous two sessions.
 Have identified any areas of potential weakness in their knowledge
and had the opportunity to revise these.
 Understand what examiners will be looking for to award high marks
in candidates’ answers
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3. Days agenda
• Fairly fluid!
• Ask the audience
• Current economic conditions
• Using Breakout rooms to work through the past two papers
• Key topics
• Effects of rising inflation
• The Growth v Value debate
• Crypto currencies
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4. Where are we in regards to
markets and the economy?
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5. Only 9 months ago!
• UK Inflation low and probably few prospects of it rising in the near
term
• Base rate at historic low, deposit rates for investors below 1%
• UK gilt yields are at an all time low, some were negative
• Share markets recovered most or all the losses in the immediate
aftermath of Covid
• But many companies have slashed or suspended dividends
• Markets seem to have disconnected from the general economy
particularly in the US
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6. Now?
• Effect of ending furlough
• Labour shortages
• UK government deficit at record levels
• But government can borrow at record low rates
• Inflation rising worldwide
• Will we see Stagflation?
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7. Where does the investor go?
Deposits
Bonds
Property
Shares
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8. Revive the
economy!
This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-NC-ND
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9. Get people
spending Set negative
interest rates
Build
infrastructure
More
quantitative
easing
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10. Quantitative easing
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Creates money!
We’ll buy any
Gilts and bonds
you have
Bonds
Cash
Releases money
into the economy
Pushes up
asset prices

11. Sunak’s dilemma
Raise
taxes
Cut govt.
spending
Go for
growth
Embrace
inflation
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12. And back to Brexit
• Aim is to have a “Free Trade Agreement”, no tariffs, no quotas
• Tariffs are generally bad, increase prices, make exports less
competitive
• But there are non-tariff barriers (NTB)
• Regulations on standards, country of origin
• If countries recognise each others standards, there will probably be
little interruption to cross border traffic
• But if standards differ then there is friction and holdups at the border
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13. Course Objectives
• By the end of the event delegates will:
 Understand any remaining elements of the syllabus that were not
covered in the previous two sessions.
 Have identified any areas of potential weakness in their knowledge
and had the opportunity to revise these.
 Understand what examiners will be looking for to award high marks
in candidates’ answers
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