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Advocacy: The Myth of the Hero
- 1. Advocacy: The Myth of the Hero
- 2. The Advocate The Hero in this Myth is not Wonder Woman or Captain America. The Hero is not a hero at all, but only the average person that cares passionately, gets really =cked off about the way things are and decides to do something about it, not just to help themselves, but to help others.
- 3. “One person can make a difference and everyone should try.” John F. Kennedy
- 4. From AnBwar Protestor to White House Staff
- 5. “Sonny” The King Of The No Shows
- 6. Just Going for a Run on the Beach
- 7. The DirBest Harbor in America
- 9. There are no Final Victories
- 10. Each GeneraBon passes the Myth of the Hero to the Next GeneraBon • Today we are faced with great challenges – Global Warming – Rising Sea Levels – The promise and threat of Technology – But perhaps the greatest threat we face is the War on Science
- 11. The Hero in The Myth Is YOU! Today, In Your Time The Scien=st as Advocate
- 12. Now let’s take a close look at one challenge that can only be solved with the leadership of Science Advocates: Saving NYC and the surrounding Metropolitan Area for the next 100 years
- 13. School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences Stony Brook SUNY March 10, 2017 www.NICHIusa.org Rising Sea Levels, Extreme Storms and Aging Infrastructure
- 14. Super Storm Sandy !"#$%&'($)*+,$-.+&/"'$012$0340
- 15. NYC Coastal Demographics • 520 mile coastline, longer than Miami, Boston, Los Angelos and San Francisco combined • 535 Million Square Feet of Built Structures in the 100 year Flood Plain • 400,000 residents living in the 100 year Flood Plain
- 16. The Facts: NYC Impact of Super Storm Sandy 14 foot Storm Surge* • 48 Deaths in NYC • $19 Billion in Damages • Over 150 homes and commercial buildings destroyed • 305,000 housing units damaged • Eleven million customers without power, internet • Lower Manha_an loses water, elevators, heat, subways • All car tunnels to Manha_an flooded except for Lincoln • Three NYC area interna=onal airports damaged and closed • Billions of gallons of raw and par=ally treated sewage discharged • Bellevue Hospital Center Evacuated * Super Storm Sandy Storm Surge at Ba_ery almost 4 feet higher than previously recorded
- 17. Four Years Later….. Lest We Forget The Facts don’t Tell the Whole Story
- 29. The Next Sandy? It’s not a quesBon of if, but When!
- 30. Current NY Flood Risk Map Category 1-‐4 Hurricanes
- 31. NYC Future Coastal Resiliency Vulnerability • According to Mayor Bloomberg’s 2012 Reconvened NYC Panel on Climate Change • By 2050 • Projected NYC Sea Level Rise is 31 inches • Over 60% Increase in Rainfall Days of 2” or more • Increase in the strength and frequency of major storms • Increase in the height and frequency of storm surge • BY 2055 • $90 Billion in Damages from a Sandy Level Event
- 32. New York City’s Response to Sandy • Despite Katrina there is no na=onal coastal resiliency plan • Despite a 2009 NYC proposal for a Regional Storm Surge Barrier, there is no regional plan • In December 2012, Mayor Bloomberg acts quickly afer Sandy and establishes the Special Ini=a=ve for Rebuilding and Resiliency (SIRR) • In the absence of a Regional Storm Surge Barrier Plan, NYC through SIRR focuses on Local Resiliency Plans
- 33. Post Sandy NYC Coastal Resiliency Policy Criteria • Plans must be Local not dependant on New York or New Jersey Sate Government • Plans must be economically feasible • Plans must be ini=ated within Mayor Bloomberg’s term (18 months) • Plans must be fully funded
- 35. The SIRR Report (2013): Analyzes Climate Risks and Makes RecommendaBons • 250 Specific Recommenda=ons • $20 Billion Cost • Plan is fully formulated but will not be completed in the Mayor Bloomberg’s term • Plan to proceed in Two Phases Phase 1: Intended to “immediately” protect NYC’s most vulnerable assets and shoreline Phase 2: Protects most of the City’s vulnerable Shoreline “When Funds are Available”
- 36. Phase 1: SIRR Local Project Focus “The City will work to install, in a first phase, integrated flood protec9on systems” • Hunts Point in the Bronx • East Harlem Waterfront along the Franklin D. Roosevelt East River Drive; • Hospital Row north of East 23rdStreet in ManhaNan; • Lower East Side; • Chinatown • Financial District • Red Hook in Brooklyn. • East Shore of Staten Island
- 37. Rebuild by Design The Federal Government’s Resiliency Program for New York and New Jersey Goals: To: Drama=cally Improve Coastal Resiliency To: Foster Intergovernmental and Cross Discipline Collabora=on To: Develop “Locally” Responsive Proposals Method: Design Compe==on for NY and NJ Metro Area Between 10 Finalists Funding: $1 Billion
- 38. RBD Projects Awarded in 2014 • NYC, Manha_an: “Big U” ($335 million) • Hoboken, Jersey City and Weehawken NJ “Li_le U” ($230 Million) • NYC, Hunt’s Point (South Bronx) ($20 Million) Planning Only • NY, Long Island (Storing/Filtering Storm water in Tributaries) ($125 Million) • NJ, New Meadowlands, Wetlands and Berms ($150 Million) • NYC, Staten Island: Oyster Reefs ($60 Million)
- 39. Impact of RBD on SIRR Projects • The 2014 RBD Project Awards provided funding that could be used in conjunc=on with iden=fied SIRR Projects • The RBD funding, together with other RBD related federal funds and other Sandy relief funding were focused on RBD award designs and FEMA disaster relief design guidelines that imposed design and funding restric=ons as well as deadlines for spending that =ghtly constrained NYC design criteria and objec=ves for previously iden=fied NYC SIRR Projects
- 40. SIRR Project Funding • Total cost of the more than 250 recommenda=ons detailed in the Special Ini=a=ve for Rebuilding and Resiliency report is nearly $20 billion • Cost is based on projects proceeding “Without Delay” • $10 billion from City capital funding already allocated and Federal relief, • $5 billion from addi=onal, expected Federal relief already appropriated by Congress. • Strategies to cover remaining $4.5 billion gap include addi=onal Federal funding and City capital.
- 41. Four Years Ager Sandy: The Status of SIRR and RBD Projects In the absence of a regional solu=on, NY and NJ Metropolitan Resiliency Projects were designed to be local projects that could be built quickly with minimum cost and maximum effect. Many of these projects are now delayed, downsized, over budget, underfunded and, limited to Phase I objec=ves, leave many communi=es, buildings, businesses and cri=cal infrastructure facili=es as vulnerable to the next Sandy as to the last.
- 42. The 2017 Status of Key SIRR and RBD Projects • The Manha_an projects have encountered significant design issues with delays, community and business opposi=on and cost over runs caused in part by: Federal funding restric=ons and delays The 20 ‘ design height of combined sea level and surge barrier protec=on Hydro-‐geological issues including limited space for land based barriers. commercial districts and neighborhoods built on permeable land fill and inability to discharge rainfall accumula=on inside the barrier in storm events. Built Infrastructure including underground u=li=es and founda=ons, complex transporta=on infrastructure and social infrastructure with complex lifestyle, transporta=on, work and recrea=onal wants and needs
- 43. The 2017 Status of Key SIRR and RBD Projects ConBnued • The Hoboken Li_le U is delayed, underfunded, and has been moved inland leaving the waterfront unprotected due to strong opposi=on from those it was designed to protect • The New Meadowlands project has been downsized with significant loss of effec=ve protec=on and wetland water reten=on due to underfunding • NYC, Staten Island barriers have been down sized and shortened significantly limi=ng their effec=veness and erosion control
- 44. The Answer to the Current SIRR and RBD Project Challenges " is to Bifurcate the Fundamental Design Concept of SIRR and RBD " • Currently the SIRR and RBD Projects are based on a design concept of using local infrastructure to provide coastal resiliency for both Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge • However, Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge while capable of having a devasta=ng cumula=ve impact are in fact two very dis=nct and separate phenomenon that require two very different design specifica=ons and have very different cost profiles and community impacts
- 45. Sea Level Rise • Sea Level Rise is con=nuous over =me with predictable lunar episodic monthly and seasonal fluctua=ons • NYC Sea Level Rise is rela=vely slow and subject to longer term forecas=ng, 21 inches by 2025, 31 inches 2050. by 2100 • Fixed Barriers to sea level Rise of 6 feet could protect NYC for the next 100 years and consequently would have far less disrup=ve effect on the built infrastructure, the social infrastructure and the Natural environment than barriers designed to address rising sea levels and 15 foot or more surges. • Barriers built only for Sea Level Rise would also be less expensive and available funds could be used to protect more communi=es
- 46. Storm Surge • Although storms are increasing in frequency, strength and devasta=on, Storm Surge is episodic and develops quickly with li_le warning • Sandy wasn’t even a Category 1 Hurricane when it struck NYC and caused a 14 foot storm surge at the NYC Ba_ery • In the future storm surges will be 15-‐20 feet and more.
- 47. The Solution" Local Projects Address Sea Level Rise " A Regional Storm Surge Barrier System Addresses Storm Surge "
- 48. The NY NJ Metropolitan Storm Surge Working Group (NY NJ SSWG) • Afer Sandy, the op=on of studying a Regional Storm Surge Barrier for the NY NJ Metro Area was endorsed by three NYC Community Boards, the Manha_an Borough President and by Governor Cuomo, but no such official study has ever been conducted. • In 2015 60 scien=sts, engineers, government officials and community representa=ves form the NY NJ SSWG to begin working together to focus on regional solu=ons to storm surge impacts on the NY NJ Metropolitan Area • In 2017, the NY NJ SSWG will issue a White Paper that sets forth their conclusion regarding the feasibility and effec=veness of a NYNJ Metropolitan regional surge barrier op=on
- 49. A NY NJ Metro " Regional Storm Surge Barrier System • An off shore regional storm surge barrier system would not have to address the complex hydro geologic, built infrastructure and social infrastructure issues faced by the current dual purpose on land SIRR and RBD projects • A 15-‐20 foot high Regional System could protect the Metro Area for the next 100 years, allowing for long term change • Such a regional system would protect far more communi=es than the current SIRR and RBD projects for the same $20 billion cost, an amount less than a single $19 Billion Sandy type storm
- 50. LocaBon of a Regional NY NJ Metro Storm Surge Barrier System
- 51. Growing Support for Surge Barrier Systems InternaBonally and in the United States Exis=ng Storm Surge Barriers in London, St Petersberg, Ro_erdam (Built) New Bedford MA, Providence RI and Stamford CT (Built) The New Orleans Storm Surge Barrier System (Expedited Construc=on Completed) The Galveston Houston Storm Surge Barrier System (Expedited Study Just Approved) USACE NY NJ Regional Study (Possible Inclusion)
- 52. Local Sea Level Projects and Regional Storm Surge SoluBons Should Be Combined While the SIRR and RBD Projects made sense originally when there was no regional alterna=ve, the challenges faced by these local projects together with their delay, underfunding and Phase I limita=ons, now strongly support the case for the design and construc=on of a combined local sea level rise system and a regional storm surge solu=on. Only Key Assets such as power genera=on, tunnel and subway entrances, food distribu=on and hospitals that required local near term surge protec=on would remain as SIRR and RPD local projects.
- 53. Meeting the Challenge and Seizing the Opportunity of Sea Level Rise, Extreme Storms and Aging Infrastructure " The Alternatives • Ignore the Reality of Scien=fic and Economic Data and Do Nothing • Retreat from the Sea and Abandon Centuries of Coastal Investment • Build Local Projects to Protect Only Selected Communi=es • Combine Local Seal Level Projects with a Regional Surge Barrier System • OR…….
- 54. Charter An Ark