2. Explanatory Note
Today’s presentation will contain forward-looking statements, both written and spoken, including as described in the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. This means statements in prepared remarks as well as during question and answer sessions and general discussion.
Forward-looking statements will include statements relating to our business operations and vision for ACE, the insurance industry, economic and insurance industry developments, our financial outlook, our use of capital, anticipated pricing and financial performance trends, competition, growth prospects, and acquisitions. The words “believe”, “anticipate”, “estimate”, “should”, “plan”, “expect”, “intend”, “hope”, “feel”, “will likely result”, and “will continue”, and variations thereof and similar expressions identify forward-looking statements -- but any statement other than statements of historical fact could be forward-looking. Forward-looking statements made by us or on our behalf reflect only our current views with respect to future events, circumstances and performance. You are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, and we undertake no obligation to publicly update or review any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.
Our forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks, uncertainties, and other factors that could, should potential events occur, cause actual results to differ materially from such statements. These risks, uncertainties, and other factors (some of which will be highlighted today but others of which are described in more detail in our SEC filings) include but are not limited to: developments in global financial markets, including changes in interest rates, currency exchange rates, stock markets, and other financial markets; increased government involvement or intervention in the financial services industry or ACE specifically; the cost and availability of financing; general economic and business conditions; losses arising out of natural or man-made catastrophes such as hurricanes, typhoons, earthquakes, floods, climate change or terrorism; actions that rating agencies may take from time to time, such as financial strength or credit ratings downgrades or placing these ratings on credit watch negative or the equivalent; capital constraints and capital flexibility reduction; the ability to collect reinsurance recoverable, credit developments of reinsurers, and changes in the cost, quality, or availability of reinsurance; actual loss experience from insured or reinsured events and the timing of claim payments; the uncertainties of the loss-reserving and claims-settlement processes, including the difficulties associated with assessing environmental damage and latent injuries; judicial decisions and rulings, new theories of liability, legal tactics, and settlement terms; corporate governance and corporate law issues including those affecting us as a Swiss company regulated in many jurisdictions; uncertainties relating to governmental, legislative and regulatory policies, developments, actions, investigations and treaties, including tax-related; the actual amount of new and renewal business, market acceptance of our products, and risks associated with the introduction of new products and services and entering new markets, including regulatory constraints; the competitive environment in which we operate, including trends in pricing or in policy terms and conditions; acquisitions made by us performing differently than expected (or failing to close) and the impact of acquisitions on our pre-existing organization; and management’s response to these factors and actual events.
Moreover, today’s presentations may contain reference to non-GAAP financial measures. For a reconciliation of our commonly-used non-GAAP financial measures, we refer you to our most recent earnings release and financial supplement, which are available on the ACE website (www.acegroup.com) under Investor Information.
3. 2014: A Record Year So Far
Nine months ended Sept. 30
% change YTD-14 vs. YTD-13
2014
2013
Operating income
$2,493
$2,393
+ 4.2%
Global P&C net premiums
$10,638
$9,922*
+ 7.2%*
Agriculture net premiums
$1,346
$1,371
(1.8%)
Total P&C net premiums
$11,984
$11,292*
+ 6.1%*
International Life premiums & deposits
$1,340
$1,131*
+ 18.4%*
Combined ratio
87.5%
87.5%
--
Invested assets
$64,060
$61,110
4.8%
Operating return on equity
11.9%
12.3%
(40 bps)
Book value per common share
$90.38
$82.98
+ 8.9%
Book value per common share, excl. AOCI
$85.09
$79.10
+7.6%
US$ in millions
* In Constant $
1
4. In a World of Risk, Sustained Book Value Per Share Growth
Natural Catastrophes
Man-made Disasters
Financial Crises
Political Unrest
2011
Thai Floods
ACE BVPS: $30.4
International and U.S. peers BVPS CAGRs represent averages for each company; operating ROE averages are for calendar years 2004-2013
* International Peers: Allianz, AXA, Munich Re, QBE, RSA, Zurich (Source: Thomson ONE)
** US Peers: Chubb, CNA, Hartford, Travelers, XL; BVPS includes impact of dilution for Hartford and XL (Source: SNL)
2011
New Zealand Earthquake
2010
Chile Earthquake
2010
Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill
2014
Thai Coup
2014
Ukraine/ Crimea Crisis
2011
Arab Spring
2008
Hurricane
Ike
2008-2009
Financial Crisis/Great Recession
2011
Japan Tsunami
2005
Hurricanes
Katrina,
Rita and
Wilma
2012
Hurricane
Sandy
2004
Hurricanes
Ivan and
Charley
2011
U.S.
Tornados
2012
U.S. Drought
2
2004 (Q2)
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014 (Q2)
$90.2
Operating BVPS ROE
(CAGR) (Average)
ACE
3-yr 8.1% 11.3%
5-yr 12.9% 12.5%
10-yr 11.5% 13.7%
Int’l Peers*
3-yr 2.6% 7.7%
5-yr 4.1% 9.5%
10-yr 4.8% 12.3%
U.S. Peers**
3-yr 5.4% 8.5%
5-yr 10.4% 9.1%
10-yr 4.8% 10.8%
5. How ACE Creates Long-Term Value
Clarity of Strategy
•Broad and balanced product, customer and distribution capabilities with substantial geographic presence
−Emphasis on specialty and traditional lines
−Pursuing faster-growing developing markets
−Expanding established positions in developed markets
•Patient, long-term builders of businesses
•Relentlessly focused on execution
Capturing Growth Opportunities
•Global presence and capabilities provide deep optionality
•Growth organically and through strategic acquisitions
Underwriting Excellence
•Disciplined culture
•Robust data analytics
3
6. Category 1
Category 2
Category 3
Category 1
Category 2
3%
6%
Strategic Focus: Territory and Product
5%
7%
Faster-Growing Product Lines
4
8%
24%
3%
7%
39%
2009
Vision
Industrial Commercial and Specialty P&C
Small Commercial
Personal Lines
Life
A&H
Reinsurance
Agriculture
6%
24%
8%
53%
51%
$17.7B
$13.3B
21%
5%
9%
46%
10%
2014
4%
13%
4%
40%
35%
3%
4%
Data is the percentage of NWP
Faster-Growing, Underserved Markets
Data is the percentage of GWP*
Vision
36%
17%
47%
56%
25%
19%
Asia & LatAm
Europe
North America
$24.1B
$19.5B
2014
62%
15%
23%
2009
2014 data is for the year ended 9/30/2014
* Includes Life deposits
7. $ in millions
GWP
CAGR
2004
2009
2014
5-Year
10-Year
Region
Total
$1,161
$1,636
$2,999*
13%
10%
Korea
$60
$126
$455
29%
22%
Hong Kong
$77
$85
$382
35%
17%
Thailand
$32
$142
$372*
21%
28%
Malaysia
$35
$58
$256
35%
22%
Indonesia
$19
$21
$130
44%
21%
Region Spotlight: Asia – Presence in 14 Countries
GWP by Product Line
Selected ACE Markets in Asia
2004
2009
2014
$1.2B
$1.6B
30%
41%
56%
5%
18%
52%
54%
44%
$3.0B*
2014 data is for the year ended 9/30/2014
* Pro forma for Samaggi Insurance
Consumer Life
Consumer Non-Life
Commercial Lines
5
8. •World’s 15th largest economy – 50 million people
•GDP
−2013: $1.2T
−Long-term projected growth rate: 3.9%
•2013 insurance penetration: 11.9% of GDP
−Non-life: 4.4% / Life: 7.5%
Korea: Innovative Multi-Distribution Drives A&H Growth
ACE is Positioned for Growth
•ACE presence established 1968 (INA)
•GWP 2009-2014: $126M $455M (3.6x)
•17 offices and 417 employees
$57.4
$72.2
$79.2
$100.7
$91.2
$34.5
$42.9
$51.2
$52.3
$54.2
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
US$ in billions
Non Life
Life
$91.9B
$145.4B
Growth in Country GWP
Source: Swiss Re Sigma, except long-term (2019) GDP growth rate from International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook, October 2014
2014 data is for the year ended 9/30/2014
6
Personal accident and supplemental health products sold through home shopping, outbound telemarketing (1,800 telemarketers) and bancassurance
Personal lines (residential) and small commercial products using multi-distribution channels – agency and direct
Commercial P&C sold through traditional brokerage and agency
Multi-distribution life sold through 1,000 captive agents, telemarketing and bancassurance
9. •World’s 29th largest economy – 69 million people
•2nd largest ASEAN economy (16.5%)
•GDP
−2013: $387B
−Long-term projected growth rate: 4.3%
•2013 insurance penetration: 5.5% of GDP
−Non-life: 1.7% / Life: 3.8%
Thailand: Presence, Product and SCB Partnership
ACE is Positioned for Growth
•ACE presence established 1947 (INA)
•GWP 2009-2014: $142M $372M* (2.6x)
•34 offices and 447 employees
•Largest foreign-owned P&C insurer with rapidly growing life business
$6.2
$8.0
$9.2
$12.7
$14.8
$4.2
$5.3
$6.0
$5.7
$6.7
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
US$ in billions
Non Life
Life
$10.4B
$21.5B
Growth in Country GWP
Source: Swiss Re Sigma, except long-term (2019) GDP growth rate from International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook, October 2014
2014 data is for the year ended 9/30/2014
* Pro forma for Samaggi Insurance
7
Balanced mix of commercial, personal and life products
•Large commercial, middle market and small commercial
•Personal accident and supplemental health, auto and residential, and life Extensive distribution
•34 standalone branch offices
•1,000+ Siam Commercial Bank branches
•600 outbound telemarketers marketing to SCB customers and retailer, credit card and financial institution customers
•400 P&C brokers and 1,500 independent non-life agents
•2,800 captive life agents
10. Region Spotlight: Latin America – Presence in Nine Countries
GWP by Product Line
Selected ACE Markets in Latin America
2014 data is for the year ended 9/30/2014
*Pro forma to include October 2014 acquisition of the large commercial P&C business of Itaú Unibanco
2004
2009
2014
16%
$0.5B
60%
40%
$1.0B
47%
11%
42%
53%
7%
40%
$2.9B*
$ in millions
GWP
CAGR
2004
2009
2014
5-Year
10-Year
Region
Total
$514
$950
$2,909*
25%
19%
Brazil
$132
$319
$1,174*
30%
24%
Mexico
$170
$177
$864
37%
18%
Chile
$26
$129
$255
14%
26%
Colombia
$25
$87
$173
15%
21%
Ecuador
$28
$43
$142
27%
17%
Consumer Life
Consumer Non-Life
Commercial Lines
8
11. •World’s 7th largest economy – 201 million people
•GDP
−2013: $2.2T
−Long-term growth rate: 3%
•2013 insurance penetration: 4.0% of GDP
−Non-life: 1.8% / Life: 2.2%
Brazil: 1+1>2 with Addition of Itaú Corporate P&C Business
ACE is Positioned for Growth
•ACE presence established 1958 (INA)
•GWP 2009-2014: $319M $1.2B* (3.7x)
•20 offices and 750 employees
•#1 commercial P&C insurer in Brazil
Growth in Country GWP
$24.8
$33.2
$41.0
$44.8
$49.4
$24.0
$31.0
$37.2
$37.4
$39.5
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
US$ in billions
Non Life
Life
$48.8B
$88.9B
Source: Swiss Re Sigma, except long-term (2019) GDP growth rate from International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook, October 2014
2014 data is for the year ended 9/30/2014
*Pro forma to include October 2014 acquisition of the large commercial P&C business of Itaú Unibanco
9
Substantial commercial and personal product capabilities
•Leading P&C insurer for large and mid-sized companies
•Large, established personal accident/supplemental health business Growing presence in all major cities – 20 branch offices – and relationship with Itaú Unibanco Distribution Commercial: 3,000 brokers and independent non-life agents for large and mid-sized commercial business Consumer: 1,200 outbound telemarketers marketing to retailer, utility and financial institution customers
12. •World’s 14th largest economy – 123 million people
•GDP
−2013: $1.3T
−Long-term projected growth rate: 3.8%
•2013 insurance penetration: 2.2% of GDP
−Non-life: 1.2% / Life: 1.0%
Mexico: Product Breadth, Distribution Strength Drive Growth
ACE is Positioned for Growth
•ACE presence established 1944 (INA)
•GWP 2009-2014: $177M $864M (4.9x)
•64 offices and 2,125 employees
•Top five P&C insurer; #2 surety writer; #4 auto insurer
Growth in Country GWP
$7.7
$8.9
$10.1
$10.9
$12.5
$9.7
$10.3
$12.1
$13.2
$14.9
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
US$ in billions
Non Life
Life
$17.4B
$27.4B
Source: Swiss Re Sigma, except long-term (2019) GDP growth rate from International Monetary Fund’s World Economic Outlook, October 2014
2014 data is for the year ended 9/30/2014
10
Balanced mix of personal and commercial products
•Auto and residential, personal accident/supplemental health, and life
•Large commercial, middle market and small commercial Distribution strength: 4,900 agents and brokers, affinity sponsors and bancassurance ACE portfolio management/data analytics and distribution management being applied to ABA Seguros Actively exporting FM surety expertise across region and beyond (regional center of excellence) Unique customer service model supported by state-of-the-art technology and strong service culture
13. North America: More Than Large Corporates and Growing
•2014 GWP: $11.2 billion
•U.S., Bermuda, Canada / 73 Offices
•6,900 employees
2014 data is for the year ended 9/30/2014
*Excludes crop insurance
11
50%
50%
2014 Customer Split (Total P&C GWP)*
50% Middle Market, Small Commercial and Consumer (A&H, HNW and other)
50% Large Corporate
Private Risk HNW personal lines
Westchester & Commercial Risk Wholesale and retail specialty middle market
Bermuda Large corporate
USA Industrial commercial and specialty large corporate and upper middle market
US$ in billions
Retail & Wholesale Commercial & Personal P&C NWP
2004
2009
2014
$4.8
$5.1
$6.2
67%
3%
18%
71%
62%
26%
9%
6%
5%
6%
18%
9%
Agriculture $0.4 $0.5 $1.6
USA on a GWP basis is 70% and includes large account fronted premium
14. North America: A Major E&S and Specialty Insurer
E&S and Specialty Products Comprise 59% of P&C GWP
E&S and Specialty P&C Products
Traditional P&C Products
41%
59%
12
Specialty Products for Middle-Market and Small Commercial Companies
•A&H
•Agriculture P&C
•Aerospace – Satellites
•Aerospace – Airports and Aircraft
•Construction Wrap-Up
•Contract/Commercial Surety
•Cyber
•Defense Base Act
•E&S D&O and E&O
•E&S Product Recall
•E&S Property
•E&S Railroad
•E&S Specialty/High Excess Casualty
•Energy
•Environmental
•Foreign Casualty/ACE Advantage
•Inland/Commercial Marine
•Kidnap & Ransom
•Medical/Life Sciences
•Private Company D&O
•Professional Liability
Specialty Products for Large Corporate and National Account Customers
•A&H
•Commercial Surety
•Construction Wrap-Up
•Cyber
•Energy
•Environmental
•E&S High Excess Casualty
•Financial Institutions D&O and E&O
•Foreign Casualty/Cash Flow
•Foreign Casualty/CMP
•Inland/Commercial Marine
•Management Liability
•Medical/Life Sciences
•Political Risk
•Professional Liability
2014 data is for the year ended 9/30/2014
2014 P&C GWP (excluding crop and personal lines): $8.5 Billion
15. Region Spotlight: Europe
GWP by Product Line
Selected ACE Markets in Europe
2004
2009
2014
$4.2B
86%
14%
$4.3B
70%
30%
68%
7%
32%
$4.4B
$ in millions
GWP
CAGR
2004
2009
2014
5-Year
10-Year
Region
Total
$4,177
$4,346
$4,433
0.4%
0.6%
U.K.
Retail
$1,395
$1,121
$1,154
1%
(2%)
Whsle
$1,516
$1,154
$1,012
(3%)
(4%)
Germany
$230
$309
$388
5%
5%
France
$389
$504
$556
2%
4%
Italy
$185
$232
$241
1%
3%
Spain
$134
$247
$210
(3%)
5%
Consumer Lines
Commercial Lines
13
2014 data is for the year ended 9/30/2014
16. Track Record of Underwriting Excellence
85%
90%
95%
100%
105%
110%
115%
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
1 AIG, Chubb, CNA, Hartford, Travelers, XL
2 Allianz, AXA, Munich Re, QBE, RSA, Zurich
ACE
North American Peers1
Global Peers2
Combined Ratio vs. Peers
14
2004-13 Avg
91.7%
97.6%
96.6%
17. ACE
Travelers
Chubb
Hartford
XL
Allianz
AXA
Zurich
QBE
Munich Re
RSA
(5%)
0%
5%
10%
15%
(100%) (50%) 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250%
AIG
Achieving Profitability and Growth
Size of bubble denotes market capitalization in USD at 06/30/2014
* AIG’s book value per share unadjusted for stock splits; adjusted BVPS declined 18% (Source: SNL)
06/30/04 - 6/30/2014
15
Average (excluding ACE)
*
5%
30%
Profitability (Book Value Per Share CAGR)
06/30/2004-06/30/2014
Growth (Change in Market Capitalization)
06/30/2004-06/30/2014
18. 2008 – 9/30/14 IRR
M&A vs. Buyback Returns
9/30/14 BVPS
Including Estimated Future Earnings1
IRR and BVPS analyses based on ACE closing share price on 11/25/14
1.Estimated BVPS including present value of estimated future cash flows. For Buybacks: 2015 forecasted incremental earnings from dividends saved capitalized at ACE’s forward P/E multiple, plus present value of future dividend savings assuming dividend discount model. For Actual: 2015E income from deals capitalized at ACE’s forward P/E multiple. Includes transactions from first full year of ownership.
14%
19%
Shareholder cash spent on buybacks
(illustrative)
Shareholder cash spent on M&A
(actual)
$92
$90
$6
$16
$98
$106
Shareholder cash spent on buybacks
(illustrative)
Actual plus estimated future earnings
(illustrative)
16